>> 招银国际-Fixed Income Daily Market Update(18 Aug 2023)-230818
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary18Aug2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereweakthismorningAMCsdownaslackingofsupportGlennKoCFA高志和HKLSPCKHHandCHILOVwidened2-5bpsLGFVswereactivewith85236576235balancedtwo-wayflowsAT1sslightlyroseduetoshortcoveringsglennkocmbicomhkCARINC1H23resultsbacktopre-pandemiclevelsreflectthecontinuedrecoveryofsmall-ticketandfrequentconsumptionsCARINC24wasCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩unchangedpost1H23resultWeseeEHICARsofferbettervalueandtrading85239000801liquiditySeebelowcyrenangcmbicomhkSINOCEConsenton2-monthinterestdeferralonthreeUSDbondssecuredSINOCEsmoved-025to05ptthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaex-JPIGspaceremainedweakTherecentnewissuessuchasCHILOVCICCHKpaperswidened7-10bpsChineseSOETMTbenchmarkssuchasTENCNTSINOCHedged1-3bpswiderInfinancialsAMCspacecontinuedtobeundersellingpressureCCAMCLcurvewidened5-20bpswithCCAMCL27sclosed7bpswideratT180HRINTHcurvewastraded1-2ptslowerLastnightChinaHuarongAssetManagementissuedprofitwarningestimatingapreliminarynetlossofRMB46-5bnin1H23ChineseAT1sweremarked075ptlowerunderaggressivestreethittingandclosed025pthigherfromtheintra-daylowICBCAS32PerpBOCOM38Perpclosedtheday05ptlowerextendingthelossesto15-2ptsWTDEuropeanAT1ssuchasSTANLNHSBCAT1sweretraded05-075ptlowerAsianbankT2ssuchasNANYANSHCMBKCINDBKCCBpaperswerebetterofferedSGbankT2swidened5bpsInKoreaspacePOHANGHYUELE28s33sunderbettersellingChinesepropertiesremainedsoftVNKRLEsfell3-4ptspostmediareportonthestakefreezeThestakefreezehadbeenreleasedwithin1dayLNGFORsCHJMAOsweredownanother125-275ptsCSCHCNsdeclined1-35ptsSHUIONsFTLNHDsweretraded075-125ptslowerROADKG795Perpwasamongtheexceptionmarked2ptshigherwhiletherestofROADKGsweretraded1-2ptsloweracrossthecurveInindustrialsEHICARsweremarked125-175ptslowertocloseatmid-70sMacaugamingnamessuchasMPELsSTCITYsWYNMACsweremarked125-225ptslowerIndianrenewablesRPVINsGRNKENsweredown05ptIndonesianspacewasquietElsewhereGLPCHI24s26sdeclined15-25ptsMONMIN24swereup1ptTheLGFVPerpspacesweremixedwithactiveflowsonthefrontendTherewereChineseRMsPropdesksswitchingoutof23LGFVsandc23SOEPerpstoraisecashThesellingpressurewereroughlydigestedbycashparkingfromAMsbankaccountsatmid-6Overallthe6-75LGFVPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk118Aug2023paperswereskewedtonetsmallbetterofferedThehighyieldingpapersremaineddemandedbutclosedwithmixedtwo-wayflowsCQLGST4324moved05pthigherShandongnamesSHDOIS23QDJZWD25wereunchangedto0125ptlowerElsewhereCPDEV25s26sweretradeddown03ptwithsellingflowsfromPBsamidVNKRLEsplungeSOEPerpsweremarkedslightlylowerasratesfurthercontinuedtowidentoYTDhighlevelsCRHZCHperpwasmarkeddown05ptInHKCorpperpsLEEMAN55Perpnotablyclosed3ptslowerathigh-80sHKcrossoverpaperssuchasZHONANFRESHK26sweretraded03-05ptlowerOntheotherhandLUSOIB33wasquoted0125pthigherasthisbondcontinuedtobesought-afterLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeROADKG795PERP17121VNKRLE312111229642-48AGILE51204212515509CHJMAO718PERP920-45CHDOGU34203212593608VNKRLE42060724895-42CKINF485PERP83107VNKRLE315051225820-39XZETDZ41211122399506VNKRLE3975110927721-38MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-077Dow-084andNasdaq-117droppedforthreeconsecutivetradingdaysasmarketsexpectthehighinterestratemaylastlongerthanpreviousexpectationpostthelatestFOMCmeetingminuteThelatestUSinitialjoblessclaimwas239kdownfrom250kinlastweekandwaslowerthanexpectationof240kUStreasuryyieldsoverallralliedhigheryesterday251030yieldreachedat494442430441respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点CARINC1H23resultsbacktopre-pandemiclevelsreflectthecontinuedrecoveryofsmall-ticketandfrequentconsumptionsTable1CARINCskeyoperatingindicator1H23vs1H221H19Carrentalrevenue712197AdjEBITDA1177-06ADRR13192Utilizationrate50pp119ppRevPAC81418SourceCompanyfillingsCARINCreportedstrongsetof1H23resultswithkeyoperatingindicatorsrecoveredtosameorexceedthepre-pandemiclevelsAsaresultitskeycoverageratiossuchasnetdebtadjEBITDAandadjEBITDAintimprovedto26xand47xin1H23from33xand37xinFY22respectivelyCARINCismoreaggressiveinaddingnewcarsCARINCinvestedc21bninclpurchaseandleasein1H23underthebackdropofstrongmarketrecoveryitsfleetscaleto126k89than4Q22Besidesthecompanyplanstofurtherexpandfleetscaleby20-30kintherestof2023whichwillbemostlyfundedbyonshorecreditlineWetakeadditionalcomfortthattheusedcarsalesofCARINCalsoincreasednotablyThesalesviapartnershipprogramhelpednotablyspendupthesalesofusedcarsespeciallytheusedBorgwardandreducethenetcapexoncaradditions218Aug2023CARINCsinterimresultsreinforceourbeliefthatthesplitrecoverypathsfordifferentsectorsinChinatheslowingrecoverypaceoflarge-ticketdurableconsumptionsbutsolidrecoveryforsmall-ticketandfrequentconsumptionssuchastravellingFBandcarrentalHencewecontinuetofavoursectorssuchasMacaugamingcarrentalFBandretailconsumptionsWeexpectEHICARisfacingasimilarrecoverypathasthatofCARINCWhilewestilllikeCARINC24asacarryplayweconsiderEHICARsofferbetterRVatcurrentvaluationTable2CARINCEHICARsbondsprofilesosamountYTMAskpriceRatingUSDmnMSFCARINC9750331241551169889B3B--EHICAR7751114244073207675--BEHICAR70921263002915692--BSourceBloombergSINOCEConsenton2-monthinterestdeferralonthreeUSDbondssecuredSino-OceanannouncedtheresultsoftheconsentsolicitationonthreeofitsoutstandingUSDbondsSINOCE6073024SINOCE595020427andSINOCE475080529Theextraordinaryresolutionforthesenotesweredulypassedatthebondholdersmeetingheldon17AugTheinterestpaymentsofthesebondsarepostponedbytwomonthstheearliestcouponpaymentwillbethatofSINOCE6073024ofcUSD209mnscheduledon30Sep23EarlierthisweekSino-OceanissuedaprofitwarningthatexpectingtorecordalossrangingRMB17bnandRMB20bnfor1H23comparedwithlossofcRMB1bnin1H22For7M23itcontractsalesfellby27yoycomparedto7M22ranked13thamongthe35developersunderourradarintermsofsalesgrowthMeanwhileSinoOceanhasscheduledtheinterestpaymentfor15Yuanyang03on21AugRecalledthatSino-Oceanfailedtoobtainbondholdersconsenttoextendthematurityof18Yuanyang01atthebondholdersmeetinginsteadithasobtained30-daygraceperiodfortheprincipalrepaymentofRMB2bnTheendofthegraceperiodshouldbearound2SepTheinterestandprincipalrepaymentpressureremainshighforSino-Oceanincoming1-2monthsbothonshoreandoffshoreAswementionedinourdailypreviouslyliabilitymanagementexerciseforSino-Oceanispossibleinnear-termamidtheliquidityshortageOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFContinuumGreenEnergy43535NC159595-BBOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolor318Aug2023Regardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere130creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB116bnAsforMonth-to-date1148creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB945bnraisedrepresentinga19yoyincreaseMediareportedthatPBOCextendedoriginallydue1Q23RMB200bnloanprogramtoMay24tohelpdevelopersfinishstalledprojectsDALWANMediareportedthatDalianWandaGroupismullingsaleofitssportsmarketingInfrontSportsMediawhichwaspurchasedforEUR105bnin2015EHOUSEE-HouseChinaEnterprisesubmitteddraftcircularofproposedHKD483mnrightsissuetoHKExSFCforvettingFUTLANSeazenHoldingsschedulesRMB1bn20Xinkong04bondputoptionexerciseon23-28AugHRINTHChinaHuarongAssetManagementexpectstorecordnetlossofuptoRMB5bnfor1H23narrowedfromRMB1887bnlossin1H22LENOVOLenovo1Q24revenuedown24yoytoUSD129bnandoperatingprofitdown50yoytoUSD390mnLYURBNFitchaffirmedLinyiCityConstructionatBBB-andplacedstableoutlookPWRLNGPowerlongRealEstateexpects1H23profittodrop753yoytoRMB300-400mnSINOCEMediareportedthatSino-OceansunitremittedfundstopaytheRMB75mncouponofitsRMB15bndue2025bondsSUNACSunacannouncedtosellthreeprojectsinChinaforRMB123bntorepaydebtYLLGSPMediareportedthatYanlordplanstouseproceedsfromrefinancingandsaleofurbanprojectstohelprepaydueFeb24USD600mnloanandUSD376mnbondsFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesor418Aug2023enterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5
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