研究报告全文：MN21Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKindlyMedical1501HKRapidsalesrecoveryin1H23TargetPriceHK3330KindlyMedicalreported1H23revenuegrowthof509YoYtoRMB340mnPreviousTPHK3141thankstotherapidrecoveryofinterventionalsurgerydemandposttheCOVID-UpDownside23619pandemicBlendedGPMimprovedby39pptsto590drivenbytheCurrentPriceHK2695increasingproportionofsalesfromthehigher-margininterventionalmedicaldeviceswhiletheGPMoftheinterventionalmedicaldevicesimprovedbyaroundChinaHealthcare2pptsto65in1H23vs63in1H22AsaresultKindlyMedicalsJillWUCFAattributablenetprofitincreasedby583YoYtoRMB81mnin1H2385239000842jillwucmbicomhkExpandingsalesnetworkdrivestherapidrecoveryofinterventionalmedicaldevicesalesAsof30June2023theCompanyhascoveredCathyWANG2650vs2317in2022domestichospitalsincluding920tierIIIhospitals85239161729vs908in2022WiththeextensivedistributionnetworkandcathywangcmbicomhkcomprehensiveproductportfoliosKindlyMedicalssalesrapidlyrecoveredAsthepent-upsurgerydemandwassatisfiedin1H23thesalesofStockDatainterventionalmedicaldevicessurgedtoRMB302mnup571YoYinMktCapHKmn45080Avg3mthstoHKmn051H23MoreoverwethinktheimprovingGPMindicatesprovincialVBPsso52wHighLowHK30702400farhavelimitedimpactontheCompanysprofitabilityWemaintainedourTotalIssuedSharesmn1673expectationthatthetotalnumberofPCIsurgeriesinChinawillincreasebySourceFactSet25YoYin2023Eto15mnwhichwilldrivethestronggrowthofKindlyShareholdingStructureMedicalsPCIsupportingdevicesthroughouttheyearKindlyHolding255EnrichedmedicaldevicepipelinesKindlyMedicalcontinuouslyHuaigeHealthInvestment91SourceHKExprogressesontheresearchdevelopmentofmedicaldevicesforcardiovascularneurologicalperipheralinterventionorimplantationandSharePerformanceurinaryinterventionTheCompanysRDexpenserateslightlyincreasedAbsoluteRelativeto19in1H23In1H23KindlyMedicalobtainedfourNMPAregistration1-mth691333-mth-4847certificatesforClassIIImedicaldevicesincludingsinusimplant鼻窦支架6-mth-16144reperfusioncatheters颅内抽吸导管guideextensioncatheter指引延长导SourceFactSet管andhydrophilicangiographiccatheter亲水造影导管Weexpectthe12-mthPricePerformanceexpandingproductportfoliotodrivethegrowthofKindlyMedicalinthelongtermStronggrowthmomentumintheoverseasmarketcontinuedKindlyMedicalhascovered226vs207in2022overseascustomersinover66vs58in2022countriesandregionswith36CE-certifiedproductsand18FDA-approvedproductsTheoveralloverseasrevenueincreasedby652SourceFactSetYoYtoRMB72mnin1H23contributing21oftheCompanystotalsalesValuationKeyrisksWemaintainedourforecastofKindlyMedicals45YoYrevenuegrowthin2023EWerevisedourTPtoHK3330basedona9-yearDCFmodelTerminalgrowthrate20WACC1066EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn46558685011741579YoYgrowth296261450382345AttributablenetprofitRMB143132167228310mnYoYgrowth178-79268367359EPSRMB086079100136186PEx282306241176130PBx2826242220Yield0908101419ROE10290105135161NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Aug2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue850117415798501186158800-10-06Grossprofit501693931467652881736257Operatingprofit1852513401672313181049069Netprofit167228310159217298525040EPSRMB100136186095130178525040Grossmargin5900590059005500550055504ppt4ppt35pptOperatingmargin217121412154196719462004204ppt195ppt15pptNetMargin196619451966186818351879098ppt11ppt087pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031EEBIT185251340408486573670778894Taxrate101010101010101010EBIT1-taxrate166227307368438517605701807DA373737445362738598-Changeinworkingcapital34252637588103120138-Capex250150100100100100100100100FCFF-5072192250316391475567667Terminalvalue7857Terminalgrowthrate20WACC1066CostofEquity134CostofDebt50EquityBeta10RiskFreeRate29MarketRiskPremium105TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150PVofenterprisevalueRMBmn4638NetdebtRMBmn420MinorityinterestsRMBmn44EquityvalueRMBmn5013EquityvalueHKmn5570ofsharesoutstandingmn167PricepershareHK3330SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SensitivityanalysisWACC3362966101610661116116630428139303627336331312540583744347032293015Terminalgrowthrate203865358033303109291215369534363206300128181035453307309429042733PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Aug2023Figure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue850117415798501186158800-10-06GrossProfit501693931468652881726257OperatingProfit1852513401672313181058869Netprofit167228310159217298515241EPSRMB100136186095130178515042GrossMargin5900590059005500550055504ppt4ppt35pptOperatingMargin217121412154196519482003207ppt193ppt152pptNetMargin196619451966187118301877095ppt115ppt089pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue35846558685011741579Costofgoodssold124189253348481647Grossprofit234276332501693931Sellingexpense21305685115152Adminexpense36496493127167RDexpense6590100161221294Others255033232121Operatingprofit137156145185251340Financecost011222Pre-taxprofit137156144183249338Incometax211511141925Netprofit117140134169230312Minorityinterest532222Attributablenetprofit121143132167228310BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets1048858802761817998Cashequivalents870641518426374418Tradeandotherreceivables318380115159214Inventories5592154170234315Timedeposits0010101010FinancialassetsatFVTPL7100000Othercurrentassets204240404040Non-currentassets3757631025129614661587PPE1994586348539731043Deferredtaxassets2915151515Intangibles82870114158202FinancialassetsatFVTPL49130162162162162Othernon-currentassets116137144151158165Totalassets142316221827205722842585Currentliabilities88153240351418501Loansandborrowings0033969696Tradeandotherpayables65105127175242325Othercurrentliabilities234980808080Non-currentliabilities73034343434Deferredincome51411111111Othernon-currentliabilities11723232323Totalliabilities95184273384451535Sharecapital166166168168168168Otherreserves114012291344146016181834Totalshareholdersequity130613951512162817862002Minorityinterest224242444648Totalequityandliabilities142316221827205722842585PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation137156144183249338Depreciationamortization223037373737Taxpaid191513141925Changeinworkingcapital31592934252Others5239181088Netcashfromoperations9673180192218289InvestingCapitalexpenditure76274243250150100Others146573464747Netcashfrominvesting222268316296197147FinancingDividendpaid315650517095Proceedsfromshareissues6644000Others339566222Netcashfromfinancing283110117297NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear1037870641518426374Exchangedifference1334000Cashattheendoftheyear870641518426374418GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue251296261450382345Grossprofit344176206508382345Operatingprofit20614071270362353Netprofit20720547264362356PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin654593567590590590Operatingmargin383336248217214215ReturnonequityROE9110290105132161GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecReceivableturnoverdays313641489489489489Inventoryturnoverdays143214071753175317531753Payableturnoverdays188719951810181018101810VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE332282306241176130PB302826242220Divyield100908101419EVEBITDA19818219416312796EVEBIT230217244195146106EVSales887361423123SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6