>> 招银国际-Kingdee(268 HK)–Loss reduction on track-230821
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研究报告全文：MN21Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKingdee268HKLossreductionontrackTargetPriceHK1700Kingdeereportedits1H23resultsrevenuewasup168YoYtoRMB26bnPreviousTPHK232812shyofBloombergconsensuswhilethenetlossofRMB284mnwas8UpDownside371narrowerthanconsensusestimateofRMB307mnlossindicatinganon-trackCurrentPriceHK1240lossreductionCoreSaaSproductGalaxysARRgrowthmomentumremainedhealthywith286YoYgrowthinsubscriptionARRMeanwhiledomesticChinaSoftwareITServicessubstitutiontrendcontinuestodrivesolidlargeenterpriserevenuegrowthSaiyiHECFA384YoYButweexpectdemandrecoverywilltaketimeamidcurrent85239161739macrobackdropdigitalizationanddomesticsubstitutionremainvitallong-termhesaiyicmbicomhktrendsandKingdeeiswell-positionedtobenefitfromthetrendinourviewWemaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK170basedon84x2023EEVSalesinlineYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkwithone-yearmeanwas11xbasedon3-yearmeanRevenuecontributionfromcloudrosefurtherIn1H23cloudrevenueWentaoLUCFAgrew22YoYtoRMB20bnandwas795oftotalrevenue1H22luwentaocmbicomhk764whilelicenseERPrevenuegrew2YoY1H22-18YoYaidedStockDatabytheprivatedeploymentofsomeoftheXinchuangprojectsLookingMktCapHKmn430900aheadmanagementguidedforacontinuousrisingtrendincloudrevenueAvg3mthstoHKmn1607contributionNetlossshranktoRMB284mnin1H231H22RMB356mn52wHighLowHK1886918drivenbyGPMexpansion13ppYoYto619in1H23aidedbyincreaseTotalIssuedSharesmn34750SourceFactSetincloudrevenuecontributionandcostcontrolShareholdingStructureSmallandmedium-sizedenterprisesuserstickinessremainshighInMrXu-Chairman2031H23KingdeescoreSaaSproductGalaxyachievedrevenueofOrientalTaoLimited111RMB922mnup17YoY1H2216andGalaxyssubscriptionARRwasSourceHKExup286YoYDollarretentionraterecordedaYoYincreaseof7ppto96SharePerformancein1H23demonstratingfurtherimprovementonuserstickinessAbsoluteRelativeManagementhighlightedthatcustomerswithanARRofoverRMB100k1-mth88152accountedfor12oftotalwhilethisusergroupcontributedtoc40of3-mth63169totalGalaxyARRandKingdeeaimsformoreup-sellopportunitiestodrive6-mth-222-95furtherARRandrevenuegrowthSourceFactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSolidlargeenterpriserevenuegrowthdrivenbydomesticsubstitutionKingdeesCosmicConstellationCCrevenuegrew38YoY1H2278YoYtoRMB393mnandwas153oftotalrevenue1H22129ManagementhighlightedastrongcustomeracquisitiontrendalthoughnotedadelayinprojectdeliveryKingdeehassignedup794customersduring1H23including297newcustomerssuchasChinaNationalBuildingMaterialGroupTongweiiFlytekandBelleFashionAsof1H23managementhighlightedthatithashelped177enterprisesinachievingall-SourceFactSetroundedlocalsubstitutionincoreERPsystemUpdateonguidanceandvaluationInviewofslower-than-expectedrecoveryinclientdemandduetomacroheadwindsmanagementupdateditsguidanceonARRtoRMB30bnfor2023EwasRMB33bnwhichimplies40YoYgrowthbutremainsconfidentongeneratingRMB600mnOCFin2023Eandonitstargettodeliver50CAGRinoperatingcashflowover2023-2025EWemaintainBUYwithnewtargetpriceofHK170basedon84x2023EEVSalesinlinewithone-yearmeanEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn41744866579568808110YoYgrowth244166191187179NetprofitRMBmn3023389219853991677EPSReportedRMBcents9231121571115483ConsensusEPSRMBcents9231131758195778EVSalesx8271605041SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Aug2023Figure1Kingdeeone-yearaverageEVSx141210Average84x864201920225120232220232320238620236720233820231882022299202230320231592022812202219120231622023163202313420232742023115202325520232262023207202317820231310202227102022101120222411202222122022SourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue335641744866579568808110Costofgoodssold114715411868219125583016Grossprofit220926342998360443225094Operatingexpenses282333923826417647265263Sellingexpense142517412027220024932809Adminexpense414466504538600652RDexpense98411851295143816331802Operatingprofit614758828572405169NetInterestincomeexpense36761009298116Others195299254266255272Pre-taxprofit38338247421452219Incometax4144222522Minorityinterest6366313730Netprofit33530238919840168BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets618344713984399544555176Cashequivalents275420471943197623162919Restrictedcash334392293408484571Prepayment1236370626626626626Othercurrentassets15031339776644692719Contractassets357323347342337342Non-currentassets453966167747793982078560PPE74610451377142014801560Intangibles78610371192134015481821Othernon-currentassets300745345178517851785178Currentliabilities259930843766431050945972Short-termborrowings120085514949Accountpayables79575989992410251148Othercurrentliabilities200160150150150150Contractliabilities148421652631318438704625Non-currentliabilities165200558428420418Long-termborrowings00385255247245Othernon-currentliabilities165200173173173173Totalliabilities276432844324473855146390Sharecapital838384848484Capitalsurplus505351495085508550855085Retainedearnings19221619123010329921160Otherreserves732744867867867867Totalshareholdersequity779075967265706770277195Minorityinterest169207142129122151Totalequityandliabilities107221108711731119341266213736PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation38338247421452219Depreciationamortization4934390504557621Taxpaid4144222522Changeinworkingcapital364560466600666760Others144382103102147Netcashfromoperations47366137478710701453InvestingCapitalexpenditure353772888695826973Others1138433101105107125Netcashfrominvesting14911205787590719848FinancingDividendpaid3700000Netborrowings80120473164112Proceedsfromshareissues209100000Others924172000Netcashfromfinancing1966144301164112NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear189927542047194319762316Exchangedifference93198000Cashattheendoftheyear275420471943197623162919GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue09244166191187179Grossprofit81192138202199179PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin658631616622628628Operatingmargin183182170995921ReturnonequityROE493952280624GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx030302020304Currentratiox241411090909Receivableturnoverdays349317257257257257Inventoryturnoverdays142228282828Payableturnoverdays224318411620153914621389VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEnanananana2391PB619364565655Divyield000000000000EV335662341530347271345306341793335745EVSales1008271605041SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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