研究报告全文：MN23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBOEVaritronix710HK1H23firsttakeearningsmissonlowermarginexpectorderrampandimprovingUTRin2H23ETargetPriceHK2369BOEVxsrevenueclimbed79YoYdrivenbybothconventionalandNEVcustomerPreviousTPHK2369expansionandorderramp-upandstrongNEVdemandinChinaUSHowevernetUpDownside1601profitdeclined19YoYwhichis3633belowourconsensusestimatesmainlyCurrentPriceHK911duetoEBITDAdeclineonpriceadjustmentandrisingcostsonChengduplantcapacityexpansionThecompanywillhostearningscalltomorrowat10amandweChinaTechnologybelievemarketwillfocusonautomarketdemandoutlookandpricingtrendChengduAlexNGplantprofitabilityandoverseasmarketcustomerexpansionIn2H23Eweexpect85239000881strongnewordersandChengduUTRramp-upwilldrivemarginrecoveryInlongeralexngcmbicomhktermoverseassharegainandhigh-endproductlauncheswillcontinuetodriveASPNPMexpansionAfterrecentcorrectionthestocktradesat96x75xFY2324ELilyYANGPhDMaintainBUYandourTPestimatesareunderreview85239163716lilyyangcmbicomhk1H23resultsmisswithlowermarginoffsettingstrongChinademandHanqingLIRevenuegrew79YoY1213belowourconsensusestimatesmainlylihanqingcmbicomhkdrivenbyTFTandtouchpaneldisplaymodulessalesinChinaUSBysegment1autodisplay89salesmixgrew7YoYthankstobothStockDataconventionalandNEVcustomerexpansionstrongdemandinNEVfromMktCapHKmn72151Chinaandorderproductionramp-upwhileEuropeKoreaUSsalesremainAvg3mthstoHKmn20052wHighLowHK2000900flattish2industrialdisplay11oftotalsalesgrew14YoYdrivenbyTotalIssuedSharesmn7920higherdemandforconsumerelectronicapplianceproductsEBITDASourceFactSetdeclined10YoYduetopriceadjustmentandrisingcostsforcapacityShareholdingStructureexpansionatChengduplant1H23netprofitdeclined19YoYbelowourBOETechnologyGroup530consensusestimatesby3633mainlyduetoEBITDAmargindeclineKoChunShun56SourceHKExKeyquestionsformgmtatinvestormeetingBOEVxwillhostearningscalltomorrowat10amandthekeyfocusinclude1automarketcompetitionSharePerformanceonASPpressureanddemandoutlookin2H23E2ChengduplantcapacityAbsoluteRelative1-mth-176-117ramp-uppaceandprofitabilityoutlook3overseasmarketexpansionpace3-mth-215-131andorderwins4EBITDAnetprofitmarginoutlook5businessfuture6-mth-537-469roadmapandanychangeornewguidanceforFY24-25ESourceFactSetOurTPestimatesareunderreviewWebelieve1H23marginpressurehas12-mthPricePerformancebeenpartiallypricedinandorderwinsandChengduplantramp-upwillboostmarginrecoveryin2H23EInlongtermwethinkBOEVxwillbenefitfromautodisplayupgradeandoverseasexpansiongivenautointelligenceandsmartcockpittrendTradingat96x75xFY2324EwethinkthestockisstillattractiveReiterateBUYandourTPestimatesareunderreviewEarningsSummarySourceFactSetYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKmn773810722130781597719117RelatedReportsYoYgrowth7093862202221971StrongFY22resultsMultipledriversfromChengduexpansionCMSandUSEBITDAHKmn51384199513101568market22Mar2023linkNetprofitHKmn327858257039904811297YoYgrowth37767772092852492NDRTakeawaysChengduautoEPSReportedHK045078095122152displaycapacityramp-upontrackautointelligencetodrivegrowth13JanConsensusEPSHK0450730991351982023linkPEx142157967560PBx08110806063CorpDayTakeawaysChengduautoYield23671986312140115008displayplanttodrivegrowthinFY23E2Dec2022linkROE107156166193210Netgearing34313541571164GlobalautodisplayleaderridingonSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatessmartcockpittrendInitiateBUY30Aug2022linkPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug202391x1H23ResultsReviewFigure1EarningsrevisionActualCMBIConsensusHKDmn2H211H222H221H23HoHYoY1H23EDiff1H23EDiffRevenue4538483158925210-116795896-125979-13OperatingProfit255275395241-391-124360-33360-33Netprofit233251332202-391-195315-36300-33EPSHKDcent3200345044642580-422-252424-39380-32OperatingMargin56576746-21ppt-11ppt61-15ppt60-14pptNetMargin51525639-18ppt-13ppt53-15ppt50-11pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2PLHKmn20211H222H2220221H23Revenue773848315892107225210YoY70951029838679Automotivedisplay65094335524295774646YoY88768233447172Industrialdisplay12284966491145564YoY140-20371-68137Operatingprofit350275395670241OPM4557676346YoY39701878554915-124Netprofit328251332582203NPM4252565439YoY37761638425777-193SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023ValuationWearepositiveonBOEVxsorderwinsChengducapacityexpansionoverseasexpansionandautodisplayleadershipundersmartcockpittrendTradingat96x75xFY2324EthestockisattractiveinourviewReiterateBUYbutourtargetpriceisunderreviewFigure3PeersvaluationMktCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EBOEVaritronix710HKBUY91990023716396750806166193LDGLPLUSNR3564498NANA----334-AUO2409TTNR43291780NANA--090911807Tianma000050CHNR2833846NANA--0707--WuhuToken300088CHNR1964586NANA19419416158492Infovision688055CHNR1811395NANA------Truly732HKNR335083NANA------Average14713312115199SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure412MforwardPEbandFigure512MforwardPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue4527773810722130781597719117Operatingexpenses4456738810052122731493817817Operatingprofit7035067080510381300EBITDA21651384199513101568Otherincomeexpense200000Others1112000Pre-taxprofit6834965880510381300Incometax13998113145182Aftertaxprofit693285827049051130Netprofit693285827049051130Adjustednetprofit693285827049051130BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets330748536611677376517998Cashequivalents162822672819312022362555Accountreceivables115817442158277732523962Inventories503833156881020971414Othercurrentassets18966666666Non-currentassets5236901673219531094203PPE4675831490201329274021Othernon-currentassets56107182182182182Totalassets38305543828389681076012200Currentliabilities103721684103453857086370Accountpayables102321363390382449955656Taxpayable01765656565Othercurrentliabilities1415648648648648Non-currentliabilities252964646464Othernon-currentliabilities252933333333Totalliabilities106321984167460257726434Sharecapital184184198198198198Otherreserves252628483867412947625553Totalshareholdersequity276733464116436649875767Totalequityandliabilities38305543828389681076012200PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation6834965880510381300Depreciationamortization147160193230275329Changeinworkingcapital104217105573591634Others11098113145182Netcashfromoperations2536654711035271423InvestingCapitalexpenditure56247483523639765Others2880000Netcashfrominvesting28254483523639765FinancingDividendpaid19136182211271339Others182460000Netcashfromfinancing174210182211271339NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear153816282267281931202236Exchangedifference3819745000Cashattheendoftheyear162822672819312022362555GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue267709386220222197Operatingprofit13933970915201290252EBITDA3011375639183316197Netprofit17433776777209285249Adjnetprofit17433776777209285249PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecOperatingmargin164563626568EBITDAmargin486678768282Adjnetprofitmargin154254545759ReturnonequityROE25107156166193210GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060300010201Currentratiox322216151313Receivableturnoverdays823685664689689689Inventoryturnoverdays517389500401401401Payableturnoverdays8849191151121712171217VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE249142157967560PB040811080606Divyield215823671986312140115008EV276723345641158436584987557665EVSales060404030303EVEBITDA1286549443837SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE523Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6