研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary22Aug2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketsreboundedpostpreviousdaysdownandflowsskewedtobetterbuyingthismorningAsianIGspacetightened5-10bpsandwesawbuyersGlennKoCFA高志和onlow-betanameslikeCICCHKHRINTHcurverallied1-2ptshigherand85236576235ChineseAT1swerealsosoughtafterglennkocmbicomhkSJMHOLTurnedaroundSJMHOLsup025ptthismorningSeebelowChinaPolicySurprisinglymodestLPRcutindicatesPolicymakersdilemmaCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩Seebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点USTwidened5-8bpsacrossthecurveyesterdayAsiaex-JPIGspaceJerryWang王世超opened5-20bpswiderwithheavysellingflowsacrosssectorsDespite85237618919sentimentslightlyimprovedintheafternoonwithshortcoveringflowsjerrywangcmbicomhkChineseSOETMTbenchmarkssuchasHAOHUATENCNTBABApapersstillclosed5-15bpswiderThehighbetaTMTssuchasLENOVOXIAOMI30swidened15-20bpsInfinancialsAMCspacewasfragileHRINTHcurvewastradedanother1-2ptslowerCCAMCLORIEAScurveswidened10-20bpsChineseAT1ssuchasICBCAS358PerpBOCOM38Perpweredown0125-025ptWhistEuropeanAT1sHSBCSOCGENNDASSperpswerebetterdemandedbyPropdesksHFsInKoreaspacethefront-endofKOEWPWsKORELEswerebetterbidChinesepropertiesremainedsoftdespiteLNGFORsrecovered2-35ptsonshortcoveringCSCHCNsweremarkeddownanother2-4ptstoclosebetweenhigh-40stolow-50sVNKRLEsdeclined05-15ptsFUTLANsFTLNHDsROADKGswere075-175ptslowerInindustrialsAACTECsweremarkeddown075-225ptsFOSUNIWESCHI26s27sedged05ptlowerMacaugamingnamesSANLTDsSTCITYsWYNMACsmoved05-1ptlowerInIndianspaceVEDLN24sweredown1ptIndonesianSOEsPERTIJsPLNIJsweremarked1-15ptslowerElsewhereGLPCHI24s26sweretraded3-35ptslowerIntheLGFVPerpspacessentimentremainedextremelyfragileHKCorpspaceperformedsoftlywithheavysellingfromAMsPBsinabsenceofmeaningfulbidsidesupportLASUDE26closed425ptslowerFRESHK25wastraded625ptslowertocloseathigh-80swhilerestofFRESHKsweredown1-25ptsacrossthecurveZHONAN25s26sdeclined05-15ptsHKCorpperpssuchasNWDEVL625PerpBNKEA5825Perpweretraded275-325ptslowerCPDEV575Perpdropped3ptswhileCPDEV25s26sweredown1ptHYSANCKINFperpslowered1ptElsewhereSOEPerpssuchasCHPWCNHUADIAperpsedged0125-025ptlowerwithratescreepingupagainLGFVsweremarkedunchangedto05ptlowerthankstodipbuyingfromonshoreChineseRMsChongqingnamessuchasCQLGSTsCQNANAswerequoteddown0125-025ptKMRLGP24wasmarked025ptlowerMoodysdowngradedKunmingRailTransittoBa1withnegativeoutlookPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk122Aug2023LastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeLNGFOR33804132759236FRESHK338021825858-63LNGFOR41201162857627LASUDE5072826641-43LNGFOR38501133247225CSCHCN9072024441-40LNGFOR39509162952122GLPCHI295032926508-36ROADKG734PERP19211PINGRE234072924834-35MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP069Dow-011andNasdaq156weremixedandSPNasdaqreboundedbytheleadoftechsectorAccordingtoNYFedssurveyinJulUSworkerswageexpectationrosetorecordhighasUSD674kperyearUStreasuryyieldsralliedhigheryesterdayand10-yeartreasuryyieldincreasedtothehighestlevelsince2008251030yieldreachedat497446434445respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点SJMHOLsTurnedaroundIn1H23SJMsrevenuegrossgamingrevenueandAdjEBITDAincreased12671243and1392yoytoHKD936bnHKD984bnandHKD461mnrespectivelyTherecoverymomentumremainsstrongItsAdjEBITDAin2Q23increasedtoHKD430mnfromHKD31mnin1Q23BypropertiestheAdjLBITDAofGLPsignificantlynarrowedtonegativeHKD62mnin2Q23fromnegativeHKD230mnin1Q23AsperSJMGLPturnedpositiveAdjEBITDAstartingfromJun23andtheperformancewasevenstrongerin3Q23sofarTheAdjEBITDAofSJMsotherself-promotedcasinosin2Q23wasHKD329mnclosetothepre-pandemiclevelofHKD335mnin2Q19SJMsself-promotedcasinoshavebeencapturingthemarketshareofsatellitecasinosclosedSJMclosed5satellitecasinosinDec22AsatJun23ithas9satellitecasinosIn1H23SJMmanagedtoreducec20staffabsorbedfromthesatellitecasinosandredeployedtheremainingtoothernon-gamingfunctionsTheexcesscostsfromsatellitecasinoswerelargelystablein1H23WiththerampingupofGLPandotherself-promotedcasinosthestaffabsorbedfromsatellitecasinoswillbeabletofullydigestedTable1MacaugamingoperatorsfinancialsGrossGamingRevenueAdjEBITDAHKDmn1H191H221H231H191H221H23MGMCHI10159275396023077-3373160MPEL195124922107346319873235SANLTD2815044591696412756-9427371SJMHOL20786438798412078-1176461STCITYSTDCTY557986028351309-524300WYNMAC16340221982725061-8732764SourceCompanyFillings222Aug2023Table2MacaugamingoperatorsfinancialsbyquarterGrossGamingRevenueAdjEBITDAHKDmn1Q232Q23QoQchange1Q232Q23QoQchangeMGMCHI------MPEL47026032281342189241SANLTD------SJMHOL4183565835314301287STCITYSTDCTY115216844671228220WYNMAC35094775361223154126SourceCompanyFillingsIn1H23Macautourismmarketshowedasignificantrecoveryfrompandemicthattherewere1165mnvisitorsarrivedMacaujumped236yoyfrom347mnvisitorsin1H22andwere574ofthe1H19levelAlongwiththerecoveryofMacautourismmarketthegamingsectoralsosharplyimprovedwithgrossgamingrevenuerebounded263toMOP968bnin7M23Asof21AugalloperatorsAdjEBITDAturnedtopositiveonthebackofGGRreboundandthosereleasedquarterfigureswecanseethepaceofrecoveryhasbeenacceleratingAsdiscussedbeforewesawsplitrecoverypathsofdifferentsectorsinChinatheslowingrecoverypaceoflarge-ticketdurableconsumptionsbutsolidrecoveryforsmall-ticketandfrequentconsumptionslikegamingFBandcarrentalDespitethecurrentvaluationislessattractivewestillliketheMacaugamingbondsgiventhesectorsimprovingcreditstoriescontainedcapexandundemandingvaluationThepotentialpositiveratingactionswillsupporttheperformanceofMacaugamingbondsWecontinuetopreferMPELSJMandSTCITYSTDCTYforbetterrisk-returnprofilesWealsoseeWYNMACsyieldpick-upplaysoverthebondsofitsUSparentsTable3USDbondsprofilesofoperatorsAskYTMModDurationAskpriceMGMCHI727-857069-3068882-9866MPEL834-933165-5008152-9434SANLTD683-721182-6637941-9695SJMHOL1058-1073220-3767969-8725STCITYSTDCTY902-1157172-4407461-9409WYNMAC737-907103-5078138-9738SourceBloombergChinaPolicySurprisinglymodestLPRcutindicatesPolicymakersdilemmaChinatrimmeditsone-yearloanprimerateLPRby10basispointsfrom355to345whilekeptitsfive-yearLPRonholdat42yesterdayTheunchanged5-yearLPRwasunexpectedparticularlyfollowingasurprisecutonthemediumtermlendingfacilityMLFratelastweekThemixedsignalssentbythecentralbankshowsthedilemmathepolicymakerscurrentlyfacingthemarketexpectedthegovernmentinpolicysupporttoaddresstheworryingslumpofpropertymarketwhilethealarminglynarrowinginterestmarginofbankingsystemandthemountingpressureonRMBexchangeratelimitedtheinterestratepolicyspaceLookingforwardweexpectfurtherdecreaseindepositratesandRRRtocreateadditionalroomforLPRcutwhenUSdollarisnotsostrongMeanwhilemorecitiesincludingtier-1citiesmayfurtherloosenpropertypolicywithcontinuousdeclinesindown-paymentratiosandmortgageratesforfirst-homeandsecond-homebuyersLPRcutdisappointedthemarketLPRsarebasicallylinkedwiththeMLFratesAsthePBOCloweredone-yearMLFrateby15bpslastweekinvestorsexpectedtheLPRstodropbythesamemagnitudeyesterday322Aug2023Howeverthecentralbankdisappointedthemarketbyloweringone-yearLPRbyonly10bpsandkeepingfive-yearLPRunchangedByseveringthelinkagebetweenLPRandMLFtheauthoritymadethepolicyratesystemmorecomplexandthepolicysignalmoreambiguousInthelongrunthecentralbankfacestheproblemofcultivatingaclearandreliablepolicyrateOneobstacleforLPRcutisbanksNIMpressureTheaverageNIMofcommercialbanksdroppedfrom22in4Q19to174in1H23AccordingtotheprudentialrulesetbytheSelf-disciplineInstitutionforMarketRatePricingbanksshouldmaintaintheirNIMsatabove18In1H23averageNIMsoflargebanksjoint-stockbankscitybanksandruralbanksrespectivelyreached168182163and187ToprotectbanksNIMthecentralbankisverycautioustolowerLPRsanddoesnotallowhouseholdstorefinancetheirmortgageloansHowevertheweakeconomyespeciallytheworryinghousingmarketneedsadditionalpolicysupportTocreateadditionalroomforLPRcutthecentralbankmayguidebankstofurtherreducedepositratesAnotherfactorisRMBexchangeratepressureTheUS-SinointerestratespreadsreacheditshighestforoveradecadeasrenminbidepreciatedsharplyagainstUSdollarTheweakChineseeconomyamidfragileconfidencecomparedtothestill-hotUSeconomywithbullishsentimentisliketheSongofIceandFireWeexpecttheFedwillatleastmaintainitscurrentpolicyrateuntil1Q24ifnotraisingonelasttimeinNovemberpossiblydependingonthe3Q23inflationdataItwouldbeanartoftightropewalkingforthePBOCtobalanceitsdomesticpolicysupportandforeignexchangeratepressureToprioritizethetargetofsupportingdomesticeconomythecentralbankhastotoleraterenminbiexchangeratefluctuationsandmayfurthertightencapitalcontrolClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFShandongCommercialGroup1303yr88---OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFHangzhouShangchengDistrictUSD2003yr625--BBB-UrbanDevelopmentNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere97creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB75bnAsforMonth-to-date1334creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1105bnraisedrepresentinga24yoyincreaseCENCHICentralChinaRealEstateexpectedtorecordlossofuptoRMB15bnfor1H23CHINSCChinaSCEGroupexpectedtoturntolossin1H23422Aug2023CHIWINFitchaffirmedConcordNewEnergyatBB-andrevisedoutlooktopositiveCOGARDMediareportedthattherearedisagreementsoverCOGARDsmaturityextensionfor16biyuan05notesKAISAGKaisaProsperityexpectedtoturntolossfor1H23OCTOWNOverseasChineseTownAsiaexpected1H23losstowidentoRMB210-270mnfromRMB616mnlossin1H22RISSUNRiseSunshareholdersapproveproposalsonguaranteestoRisesunConstructionEngineeringforuptoCNY600mfundingSUNACSunacChinaexpecteduptoUSD22bnlossin1H23amidrealestatedownturnFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethatthe522Aug2023analystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinanci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