>> 招银国际-Longfor：How Longfor is different？-230821
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary21August2023CMBICreditCommentaryLongforHowLongforisdifferentGlennKoCFA高志和LNGFORsoffergoodriskandreturnprofile85236576235LNGFORsdropped20ptsoverthepast3weeksduemainlytothecollateralglennkocmbicomhkdamageofthesharpdownturnofCOGARDsAswediscussedinourcommentson15Aug23LongforisfacingaverydifferentsituationthanwhatCOGARDCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩isWehavebeenarguingthatsurvivorsofthesectorswillbethose1with85239000801manageablenear-termmaturitiesespeciallyoffshorematurities2amaturedcyrenangcmbicomhkportfolioofinvestmentpropertiesIPssuchthattheunencumberedvalueofIPscanbemonetizedorcollateralizedtoobtainoperatingloansCMBSorissueJerryWang王世超CBICL-guaranteedbondsTheIPswillbeanalternativesourceofliquidityprior85237618919toameaningfulsalesrecoveryand3majorpositioninginhighertiercitiestojerrywangcmbicomhkbenefitfrommorespeedysalesrecoveryWeconsiderLongforasurvivorofthesectorItsnextUSDbondmaturitywillbeinApr273yearand8monthsfromnowandLongforisingoodprogressinearlyprepaymentofoffshoresyndicatedloansdueFY24ItsmaturedinvestmentportfoliooffersaheadroomofRMB50bnasalternativeliquiditysourcesAdditionallyitistheonlynonstate-owneddevelopersunderourradarwithyoycontractsalesgrowthin7M2395ofitssalesin1H23werefromT12citiesAtcurrentvaluationweconsiderLNGFORsoffergoodriskandreturnprofileandmaintainbuyonLNGFORsOSUSDmnMaturityCouponOfferpriceYTMLNGFOR3380413272504132027338573852057LNGFOR4120116285001162028450566191969LNGFOR3950916298509162029395512061723LNGFOR3850113324001132032385464381545SourceBloombergDebtprepaymentinsteadofmaturityextensionRMBmnDec22Jun23Cash720954712939Cashinescrow180000240000STdebts221179385542LTdebts20075361832377Netdebts13839531369434Netgearing594582CashSTdebts33x18xAdjliabassets648619CMBIFixedIncomeSourceCompanyfillingsfiscmbicomhkPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE21August2023Longforrecentlysecured5-yearbulletofHKD32bnfortheprepaymentoftheHKD153bnbulletdueJan24WeunderstandthatLongforhasalreadyprepaidHKD72bnincludingthedrawdownofHKD32bnoftheseoffshoreloansIttargetstoprepaytheremainingHKD81bnbyendof2023ItsnextUSDbondmaturitywillbeinApr27anditsonlyonshorebondmaturityinFY23willbetheremainingcRMB119mnofLNGHDV33110623issuesizeRMB2bnAsperLongforc13ofitscashonhandasatJun23wasinescrowaccountsExcludingthecashinescrowitsunrestrictedcashshouldcover12xofitsSTdebtsOnapro-formabasistakinginaccountofLongforsattributablenetdebtsatJVlevelsitslook-throughnetgearingratiowouldlowerto45from582inJun23ThisreflectedthenetcashpositionofitsJVsinaggregateLongforcontinuestobeoneofthefewnonstate-owneddeveloperswithcontinuedaccesstooffshoreloanmarketandmaintaininthegreencampunder3redlinesMaturedIPportfoliooffersasizeablesourceofalternativeliquidityCurrentlyLongforhasloansagainstIPsofcRMB40bnAsperthecompanyitestimatesthatthesecuredloansagainstitsIPscouldbeRMB90mnieaheadroomofRMB50bnforoperatingloansCMBsandCBICLguaranteedbondsLongforwillhaveonshorebondmaturitiesandredemptionsofuptoRMB142bnforFY24ItsIPsoffersizablesourceofalternativeliquiditytocoveritsrefinancingrequirementsandmitigatestheimpactoflowerrecognizedpropertysalesandmarginpressureRMBmn1H221H23changeRevenue948046620444-3456Propertysales837674498694-4047Nonpropertysales1333361479721098Grossprofit201468138999-3101Profitbeforetax159273123747-2231RecognizedGFAmnsqm6038-3595RecognizedASPsqm1400113014-705Grossmargin21252240SourceCompanyfillingsWhilethegrossmarginofpropertydevelopmentloweredto143Longforsoverallgrossmarginimprovedto224in1H23from213in1H22211in2H22reflectedthegrowingcontributionfrompropertymanagementandinvestmentsThegrossmarginofpropertymanagementandinvestmentsis30and70LongforexpectsgrossmarginofpropertydevelopmenttoreboundafterdestockingIttargetstoachievegrossmarginof20frompropertydevelopmentaswellasmaintaingrossmarginofpropertymanagementandinvestmentsat30and70SalesgrowthinaverychallengingmarketIn7M23LongforreportedattributablecontractsalesofRMB7324bnup7yoyThecompanyis1ofthe7developersamongst35developersunderourradarreportedyoysalesgrowthin7M23MoreimportantlyLongforistheonlynonstate-owneddeveloperunderourradartoreportyoysalesgrowthWetakeadditionalcomfortthatthecashcollectionrateremainshighover100in1H23includingcollectionsfromsalesinlastyearWebelievethattheresilientoperatingperformancereflecteditsmajorpositioninginhighertiercitiesIn1H231346and36ofitscontractsalesweregeneratedfromT1leadingT2andotherT2citiesrespectivelyThesell-throughrate221August2023ofbrandnewprojectsin1H23is70In2H23LongforwillhavesaleableresourcesofcRMB220bn1544and34inT1leadingT2andotherT2citiesrespectivelyLongforisconfidentonachievingcontractsalesofRMB200bnandcashcollectionofRMB160bninFY23ThisshouldsupportpositivefreecashflowgenerationforfurtherdebtreductionCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStates321August2023CMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinform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