研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary21Aug2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报AsianIGspacewidened5-20bpsamidweaksentimentthismorningRecentnewissueslikeHKLSPCICCHKwere5-10bpswiderHigh-betaTMTsGlennKoCFA高志和widened5-20bpsBesidesLGFVSOEPerpAT1sectorsallretreated85236576235glennkocmbicomhkLongforHowLongforisdifferentLNGFORrose225-375ptspostthe1H23resultsSeebelowCOGARDFirstmaturityextensioninonshorebondfor3yearsCOGARDsCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩wereunchangedthismorningaslackingofliquiditySeebelow85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超LastFridayUSTcurvetightened4-8bpsAsiaex-JPIGspacecontinuedto85237618919betradedonasofttoneassellingpressureremainedheavyTherecentnewjerrywangcmbicomhkissueswereunderbettersellingHKLSPCHILOV33sclosed2-5bpswiderCKHHBOCAVI28swidened4-5bpsTMTSOEbenchmarkssuchasBABATENCNTHAOHUApapersedged2-4bpswiderThehighbetaTMTssuchasMEITUAWBXIAOMI30sweretraded5-12bpswiderInfinancialsAMCspaceremainedweakHRINTHcurvewastraded15-3ptslower50-250bpswiderCCAMCLcurvewidened10-20bpswithlimitedbidsupportChinesebankT2sweremixedwithactivetwo-wayflowsThefrontendofBCHINACCBICBCASpaperswereunderbetterbuyingElsewhereChineseAT1shadasmallroundofshortcoveringintheAMsessionbutclosedlargelyunchangedICBCAS32PerpBCHINA36Perpwereindicated01-02pthigherThaiKoreaAT1swereskewedtosmallbetterbuyingfromRMsPBsWhereasEuropeanAT1ssuchasHSBC8PerpSTANLN6Perpwerequoteddown05ptinlightofrichvaluationsChinesepropertiesperformedmixedDALWANsgained1-2ptsOntheotherhandCSCHCNsweremarkeddown4-5ptsacrossthecurveROADKGsmoved125-275ptslowerLNGFORsSHUIONsdeclined1-2ptsAwayfrompropertiesAACTEC24s26s31sweretraded05-15ptshigherEHICAR24wasmarked05pthigheratmid-70sMacaugamingpaperssuchasMPELsSANLTDsSTICTYsWYNMACsweretraded075-125ptslowerInIndianspaceADSEZsandGRNKENsweremarkeddown025-05ptIndonesianspacewasquietGLPCHIsweremarkeddown05-1ptThesentimentintheLGFVPerpspaceswasalsofragileProperty-relatednamessuchasCPDEVsZHHFGRswerestillsubjecttothespilloverfromtherecentpropertyturmoilCPDEV25s26sweremarkeddown1-2ptswithimmensesellingpressureCPDEV575Perpmoved2ptslowerFlowsinthesenameswereskewedheavilytobettersellingfromPBsAMsdespitesomesporadicPBbuyingandsupportwashardlyfoundaspotentialChinesebuyerswereyettostepingiventheavailabilityofcheapVNKRLECHJMAOoffersalternativelyHoweverflowsinLGFVswerebalancedtwo-wayindecentsizeswithonshoregenerallyinclinedtobuywhilstoffshoreoffloadingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk121Aug2023low-yieldpapersShandongnamessuchasSHDOIS24SHGUOH25weremarkeddown0125ptSOEperpswerealsoweakeramidratesuncertaintiesCHSCOICHPWCNperpswerebetterofferedInHKCorpperpsNWDEVL525PerpLEEMAN55Perpweretraded25-3ptslowerBNKEAperpslowered125-275ptsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeDALWAN71401292444319CSCHCN9041224526-48AACTEC33406023167714CSCHCN9121124415-48PLBIIJ53805054593412CSCHCN9072024481-43CQNXCT54510292491010CSCHCN9062624481-43DALWAN1102132631409CSCHCN9100924441-41MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-001Dow-007andNasdaq-020continuedtodownamidweaksentimentonlastFridayPBOCcut1yrLPRby10bpsto345andmaintained5yrLPRunchangedat420comparedwithmarketexpectationof340405for15yrLPRrespectivelyEurozoneJulCPIwas53yoydownfrom55inJunandsamewithmarketexpectationUStreasuryyieldsslightlyretreatedonFriday251030yieldreachedat492438426438respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点LongforHowLongforisdifferentLNGFORsoffergoodriskandreturnprofileLNGFORsdropped20ptsoverthepast3weeksduemainlytothecollateraldamageofthesharpdownturnofCOGARDsAswediscussedinourcommentson15Aug23LongforisfacingaverydifferentsituationthanwhatCOGARDisWehavebeenarguingthatsurvivorsofthesectorswillbethose1withmanageablenear-termmaturitiesespeciallyoffshorematurities2amaturedportfolioofinvestmentpropertiesIPssuchthattheunencumberedvalueofIPscanbemonetizedorcollateralizedtoobtainoperatingloansCMBSorissueCBICL-guaranteedbondsTheIPswillbeanalternativesourceofliquiditypriortoameaningfulsalesrecoveryand3majorpositioninginhighertiercitiestobenefitfrommorespeedysalesrecoveryWeconsiderLongforasurvivorofthesectorItsnextUSDbondmaturitywillbeinApr273yearand8monthsfromnowandLongforisingoodprogressinearlyprepaymentofoffshoresyndicatedloansdueFY24ItsmaturedinvestmentportfoliooffersaheadroomofRMB50bnasalternativeliquiditysourcesAdditionallyitistheonlynonstate-owneddevelopersunderourradarwithyoycontractsalesgrowthin7M2395ofitssalesin1H23werefromT12citiesAtcurrentvaluationweconsiderLNGFORsoffergoodriskandreturnprofileandmaintainbuyonLNGFORsOSUSDmnMaturityCouponOfferpriceYTMLNGFOR3380413272504132027338573852057LNGFOR4120116285001162028450566191969LNGFOR3950916298509162029395512061723LNGFOR3850113324001132032385464381545221Aug2023SourceBloombergClickhereforfullreportCOGARDFirstmaturityextensioninonshorebondfor3yearsCountryGardenannounceditsfirstextensioninmaturityofonshoreprivatebond16BiYuan05afterthetradingsuspensionofits11onshorebondssince14AugTheoutstandingamountof16BiYuan05iscRMB39bnandCOGARDproposestoextendthematurityfor3yearsfrom2SepInterestsaccruedwillbepaidaccordingtotheoriginalscheduleon2SepandCOGARDalsooffersRMB100kprincipalrepaymentforeachofthebondholderbefore2OctAbondholdersmeetingwillbeheldon23-25AugTheprincipalwillberepaidininstalments2on2Oct231stmonthaftertheextension2on2Nov232ndmonth2on2Dec233rdmonth10on2Sep2412thmonth15on2Sep2524thmonth25on2Mar2630thmonthand44on2Sep2636thmonthInterestwillbepaidannuallyon2SepincashCOGARDalsoprovidescreditenhancementto16BiYuan05fiveprojectcompaniesinFujianLongyanShandongYantaiandJiangsuShuyangHuaianXinghuaarepledgedTherearecUSD37bnequivalentpubliconshoreandoffshorebondsmaturitiesredemptiontilltheendofJan24thesuccessful3-yearextensionof16BiYuan05mayhelptosetaprecedentforCOGARDinmanagingtheupcomingbondduesAswementionedinourcommentearlieraholisticrestructuringwithmaturityextensionof3yearsorlongermakesmoresenseforCOGARDconcerningtheloomingonshoreandoffshorematuritiesfromnowto2026PleaserefertoCOGARDourreflectionsafterCOGARDsformoredetaileddiscussionsOntheotherhandCOGARDhasdelivered278kunitsofpropertiesin1H23andittargetstodeliver422kunitsin2H23tomeetitstargetof700kunitsfor2023MediareportedthatCOGARDscashinhandisjustsufficienttoensuredeliveryofpropertiesDuetoverytightliquidityconditiondebtrepaymentmaydryupthefundingreservedforfinishingpropertyprojectsFor7M23COGARDrecorded-35declineyoyincontractsalesranked17thamong35developersunderourradarintermsofgrowthrateOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolor321Aug2023Regardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere82creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB79bnAsforMonth-to-date1236creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1031bnraisedrepresentinga03yoyincreaseADANEMAdaniPowerdeniedbeingindiscussionwithTAQAforinvestmentDALWANMediareportedthatDalianWandaCommercialManagementhaspreparedfundsforSepinterestpaymentofRMB38bn55820Wanda01bondsEVERREChinaEvergrandeannouncedChapter15applicationinUSisnormalprocedureforoffshoredebtrestructuringanditdoesnotinvolvebankruptcypetitionFRESHKFarEastHorizonmandatedbanksforEUR150mnequivalentthree-yeargreenloanGEMDALMediareportedthatGemdaledeniedthenewsthatitisuncertainorunwillingtorepayputtableorduein1Q24debtsKMRLGPMoodysdowngradedKunmingRailTransittoBa1fromBaa3withnegativeoutlookSINOCESino-OceanGroupreportedRMB208bnrevenueandRMB183bnnetlossin1H23SUNACSunacChinaexpectsuptoRMB16bnlossfor1H23comparedwithRMB188bnnetlossin1H22TPHLTimesChinaexpectsuptoRMB2bnnetlossfor1H23VEDLNMediareportedthatVedantaResourcesmayconsiderextendingitsoutstandingUSdollarbondstomitigatetherepaymentstressinFY2425YUZHOUYuzhouGroupexpectsrevenuetoincrease08yoytoRMB125bnbuttoturntolossofRMB6-7bnfor1H23FixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanyloss421Aug2023damageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5