研究报告全文：MN23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGlodon002410CH1H23missamidpropertysectorheadwindTargetPriceRMB4510Glodonannounced2Q23resultstotalrevenueincreasedby72YoYtoPreviousTPRMB5841RMB176bnin2Q23belowconsensusestimateofRMB200bnNetprofitwasUpDownside531RMB1292mnin2Q23down55YoYmainlyduetothesofthousingCurrentPriceRMB2946constructionmarketandGlodonsadjustmenttoitsorganizationalstructureTotalrevenuenetprofitwas107-375YoYin1H23Inviewofthelong-lastingChinaSoftwareITServicespropertysectorheadwindthecompanyreviseddownthefull-yearrevenuenetSaiyiHECFAprofitgrowthguidanceandnowexpectstotalrevenuenetprofittodeliverteens85239161739percentagepositiveYoYgrowthinFY23previous3030YoYWeloweredhesaiyicmbicomhkFY23-FY25totalrevenueforecastby7-16asthepropertysectorheadwindpersistsandorganizationaladjustmentimpactsshort-termrevenuegrowthThatWentaoLUCFAluwentaocmbicomhksaidGlodonsleadershipinChinasdigitalconstructionmarketremainsintactandweexpectitsearningsgrowthtoreaccelerateinFY24EwhenweexpectitsYeTAOfocusedstrategytodeliverresultsMaintainBUYwithnewTPofRMB4510onfranktaocmbicomhk9xFY23EVSalesStockDataConstructioncostingsoftdemandimpactsnewlysignedcontractMktCapRMBmn350983ConstructioncostingSaaSrevenuegrewby34YoYtoRMB11bnin2Q23Avg3mthstoRMBmn5132accountingfor8160ofconstructioncostingrevenueGlodonstotal52wHighLowRMB55212781revenueNewlysignedcontractvalueddeclinedby83YoYtoRMB157bnTotalIssuedSharesmn11914SourceFactSetin1H23mainlyduetothesoftdemandfrompropertymarketespeciallytheSMEclientsandtheGlodonsadjustmenttoitssalespolicyshorteningShareholdingStructurecertaincontracttermfrom3yearsto1yearThenewdigitalcostsolutionDiaoZhizhong-Chairman160Otherco-founders149businesswasaccumulatinglighthousecustomersandprojectsatitsearlySourceCompanydatadevelopmentstagewithitsrevenueupby1237YoYtoRMB303mnin1H2316ofcostingSaaSrevenueLookinginto2H23GlodonwillfocusSharePerformanceontheexpansionofKAcustomerssuchasstate-ownedenterprisesandAbsoluteRelative1-mth4657increasepenetrationrateintothelarge-enterprisemarket3-mth-188-154ConstructionmanagementshiftfocustoqualitygrowthConstruction6-mth-329-265managementrevenuedeclinedby20YoYtoRMB316mnin2Q23andSourceFactSetrepresented18oftotalrevenueasconstructioncompaniesaremore12-mthPricePerformancecautiousondigitalspendingamidthepropertysectorheadwindThishasledtoalongerdealnegotiationanddeploymentcycleToweatherthesectorheadwindGlodonwillfocusonbothrevenueandearningsgrowthinsteadofjustrevenuegrowthinthefuturemainlythroughoptimizingproductstructureandincreasingsalesofself-developedproductsShort-termpressureonmarginOverallGPMwasflattishYoYat856in1H23astheincreaseinconstructioncostingGPMwasoffsetbythedeclineSourceFactSetinconstructionmanagementGPMduetooperatingdeleverageThecompanycontinuestoinvestinPaaSandAItosolidifyitsleadershipinthedigitalconstructionmarketwithitsRDexpensesupby307YoYandaccountingfor280oftotalrevenuein1H231H22238OPMwasdown69pctYoYto94in1H23Welowerourtargetpriceby23toRMB4510previousRMB5841ex-dividendbasedon90xFY23EEVSaleswhichisadiscounttoSaaSpeersaverage100xreflectingourconservativeviewontheSaaSdemandfrompropertysectorMaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn56196591753986529829YoYgrowth403173144148136NetprofitRMBmn6610966799341292314557EPSReportedRMB056082060078087ConsensusEPSRMB056081077103136EVSalesx8269574841SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug2023BusinessforecastsupdateandvaluationFigure1Glodonforecastrevision2023E2024E2025ERMBmNewOldDiffNewOldDiffNewOldDiffSales75398140-786529800-12982911698-16Grossprofit62326540-569697780-1079109225-14OPProfit11601389-1614311761-1915912087-24PBT11001360-1914251751-1916162097-23Netprofit9931195-1712921581-1814561882-23EPS060072-17078095-18087113-23MarginsGM827804231bps806794117bps805789162bpsOPM154171-167bps165180-143bps162178-165bpsPBTmargin146167-211bps165179-139bps164179-149bpsNetmargin132147-151bps149161-120bps148161-128bpsSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2GlodonCMBIGMestimatesvsconsensus2023E2024E2025ERMBmCMBIStreetDiffCMBIStreetDiffCMBIStreetDiffSales75398292-9865210258-16982912656-22Grossprofit62326831-969698429-17791010376-24OPProfit11601442-2014311923-2615912397-34PBT11001453-2414251971-2816162517-36Netprofit9931266-2212921710-2414562187-33EPS0608-230810-250914-36MarginsGM82782427bps806822-161bps805820-150bpsOPM154174-201bps165188-221bps162189-275bpsPBTmargin146175-293bps165192-274bps164199-345bpsNetmargin132153-209bps149167-173bps148173-247bpsSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Glodon2Q23resultsreviewJun-22Mar-23Jun-23Jun-23Jun-232Q221Q232Q232Q23versus2Q23versusConsensusactualactualactualYoYQoQCMBIRMBmnRevenue1640131217577342035-142001-12Grossprofit1403113814906311779-161641-9Grossmargin856867848-08pctpts-19pctpts874-26pctpts82028pctptsOperatingprofit330139195-4140505-61334-42Operatingmargin201106111-9pctpts05pctpts248-137pctpts167-56pctptsNetnon-op-53-48-951-1962-1-480688-155PBT325142146-553504-71422-65Netincome288120128-557408-69351-63EPSRMB017007008-557024-69023-66SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023Figure4PeercomparisonSaaSsectorCompaniesTickerPriceEVSalesxEVEBITDAxRevCAGRLocal2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E22-25EGlodon002410CH29548393225118814624MingyuanCloud909HK37272219NANA38616Yonyou600588CH17153443660532423118Kingdee268HK115625142NANA49921KingsoftOffice688111CH3706309232177NA78056532AutodeskADSKUS199787807221418716811CoStarCSGPUS783113988353742429915Average1008166402381328SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasatthe21AugmarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue400556196591753986529829Costofgoodssold4548931124130816821919Grossprofit355047275467623269697910Operatingexpenses314239784347507255396319Sellingexpense125615871690191921652431Adminexpense87910991229135315041650RDexpense108313331515189019772355Others75418791108117Operatingprofit4087481120116014311591Investmentgainloss1000141515Interestincome1753335195112Interestexpense000000Foreignexchangegainloss012000Otherincomeexpense55177968673Pre-taxprofit4107491078110014251616Incometax293166365359Minorityinterest5158457181100Netprofit33066196799312921456BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets5420512257978728987411269Cashequivalents479740504344723884649941Accountreceivables47556011201079991900Inventories267187566574Othercurrentassets121441245354354354Non-currentassets412749465749627166837044PPE99412191478190826113262InvestmentinJVsassos255326342308308308Intangibles166419792598260923192028Othernon-currentassets121414211331144514451445Totalassets95471006811545149981655618313Currentliabilities285836374576743580348668Short-termborrowings304000Accountpayables17402395531406146605294Othercurrentliabilities111512424041337433743374Non-currentliabilities131158168193193193Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities131158168193193193Totalliabilities298937954744762982288861Sharecapital118611891191166516651665Capitalsurplus313531742910250925092509Retainedearnings195724323063358245415664Otherreserves1251007853884884884Totalshareholdersequity640257886312687278318954Minorityinterest156485489498498498Totalequityandliabilities95471006811545149981655618313PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation4107491078110014251616Depreciationamortization384313225415464519Taxpaid293166365359Changeinworkingcapital7845252440774679715Others327452850184300Netcashfromoperations187616011648409625162791InvestingCapitalexpenditure439720850886876880Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments2390367300Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term199319519500investmentsOthers0110163700Netcashfrominvesting69715419641115876880FinancingDividendpaid157354410477333333Netborrowings108830300Proceedsfromshareissues304063629549100Others39510742967381100Netcashfromfinancing1400795412551414434NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear223147974050434472388464Exchangedifference141323500Cashattheendoftheyear479740504344677084649941GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue131403173144148136Grossprofit120331157140118135Operatingprofit20683549636234112Netprofit405100146328301126PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin887841829827806805Operatingmargin102133170154165162ReturnonequityROE68108160151176173GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx070707111111Currentratiox191413121213Receivableturnoverdays486336465532437351Inventoryturnoverdays223244352626Payableturnoverdays15861556294196619661966VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE1492871447494380337PB7910169716355Divyield060611070707EV453353460797457885428916416650401883EVSales1138269574841SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE523Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6