研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary23Aug2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Marketssentimentrecoveredandflowsweretwo-waybalancedthismorningGlennKoCFA高志和IGbenchmarkstightened1-3bpsHRINTHsrebounded05-15ptsWesaw85236576235buyingflowsonshort-termleasingnamesorSOEPerpswithhigherthan6glennkocmbicomhkyieldShuiOnLandHighqualityIPsofferalternativeliquidityThecurrentvaluationsoffergoodentrypointsSHUIONswere015-075lowertodayCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkLNGFORPlanstoissuethirdCBICL-guaranteedbondsWemaintainbuyonLNGFORsLNGFORsrebounded45-5ptspostthe1H23resultsandrose05-125ptthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkAsiaex-JPIGmarketrebouncedfromtherecentweaknessTherecentnewissuessuchasCHILOVBOCAVICKHH33sedged2-3bpstighterChineseSOETMTbenchmarkpaperssuchasHAOHUATENCNTBABA30-31sweretraded3-8bpstighteronshortcoveringandbottomfishingbuyingThehighbetaLENOVOMEITUA30sclosed7-15bpstighterundershortsqueezingInfinancialsHRINTH25-30sbounced2-35ptsfromtheMondaylowsCCAMCLORIEAS27sgrinded10-20bpstighterChinesebankT2ssuchasBCHINAsCCBsICBCASsCINDBKswerebetterbidChineseAT1swereunchangedto0125pthigherEuropeanAT1swereunderbetterbuyinginterestsfromregionalPropdesksAMsHFsSGbankT2sgrinded2-5bpstighterInKoreaspaceKORELEDAESEC26swereunchangedto3bpstighterChinesepropertiesweremixedLNGFORsgainedanother125-225ptstoclose5ptshigherWTDSHUION24s26smoved15ptshigherCHJMAOswerebidup1ptOntheotherhandROADKGperpsdropped3-425ptswhilerestoftheROADKGsweredown1-25ptsIndustrialswasquietFOSUNI27ANTOIL25weremarked025ptlowerMacaugamingpaperssuchasMPELsSANLTDsSTCITYsweretraded075-125ptshigherInIndianspaceADANEMsADGREGsgained025-05ptIndonesianspacewasmutedElsewhereGLPCHIswereindicated05pthigherTheLGFVPerpspacesopenedweakerastherecentgloomysentimentcarriedovertoTuesdayHoweverbuyingfromPBsandregionalglobalRMsemergedsincelatemorningFRESHK24wastraded025pthigherat935TherewerealsosomebuyingflowsinZHHFGRCQLGSTThatsaidsellingflowsre-emergedatlateafternoonasinvestorstookthewindowtooffloadrisksCPDEV2526Perpclosed1-25ptslowerTherewereRMspickingup1yLGFVpapersKMRLGP24were075pthigherto8425despiteMoodysonenotchdowngradetoBa1lastFridayGSHIAVGXFING23sweretraded0125-025pthigherChongqingShandongnamessuchasCQLGST24sSHUGRP24sQDJZWD25swereunderbetterbuyingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk123Aug2023ElsewhereSOEperpssuchasHUADIA4PerpCHCOMU3425Perpwerequoted015-02ptlowerHKperpsperformedmixedBNKEAperpsweremarked25-3ptshigherWhilstontheotherhandCKPHNWDEVLperpsweretraded05-15ptslowerCKINFHYSANPerpsweremarkeddown05-075ptLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeHRINTH45806032681934ROADKG734PERP146-42HRINTH41411072775229ROADKG795PERP134-29HRINTH41205292973228ROADKG6090425297-26HRINTH47811222680028ROADKG52011226272-26HRINTH43404272777927CPDEV385071425752-25MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-028Dow-051andNasdaq006remainedweakonTuesdayUSJulexistinghomesaleswas407mndownfrom416mninJunandlowerthanexpectationof415mnChinaMOFStateTaxationAdministrationandCSRCannouncedcontinuationofsixtaxincentivestoboostChinacapitalmarketUStreasuryyieldscontinuedtoralliedhigheryesterday251030yieldreachedat502449434442respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ShuiOnLandHighqualityIPsofferalternativeliquidityOSUSDmnMaturityCouponOfferpriceYTMSHUION53411122350011122023575888056422SHUION6150824245008242024615628596121SHUION5120303254899332025550488776206SHUION5120629264006292026550406424404SourceBloombergShuiOnLandSOLpostedstronger1H23resultsasitsoperationsandprojectdeliveriesnormalizedfromthelock-downinShanghaiandothermajorcitiesThelowermarginwassomewhatattributabletothehigherproportionofitsrevenuein1H23wasderivedfrompropertysalesofwhichthemarginislowerthatofrentalincomeHavingsaidthatitstotalcontractsalesin1H23wereonlyRMB46bn76loweryoyandonlyc35ofitsFY23salestargetofRMB13bnThecompanyremainsconfidenttoachieveFY23salestargetgivenitssaleableresourcesof212ksqminShanghaiWuhanandChongqingInFY21FY22wasinterruptedbylock-downSOLcompleted40ofitsfullyearsalesin1H21WeconsiderachievingthefullyearsalestargetchallenginggiventhedifficultoperatingenvironmentRMBmn1H221H23changeRevenue441500643100457Propertysales244900466200904Nonpropertysales196600176900-100Grossprofit2821294945Profitbeforetax102700187000821223Aug2023Grossmargin63904586TotalrecognizedsalesinclJVandassociatesTotalrecognizedGFAmnsqm2618034706012257RecognizedASPsqm550004945007991SourceCompanyfillingsSOLscreditprofileremainslargelystableItdidnotprovideaconcreterefinancingplanforUSDbondsdueNov23andothernear-termmaturitiesThatsaidwetakecomfortfromitshighqualityportfolioofIPsTheunencumberedvalueshouldprovideastrongsupporttoitsliquidityprofileAsatJun23thebookvalueofitsIPswasRMB519bnAsperSOLtheLTVofitsIPswas175includingtheCMBSofRMB44bnissuedagainstShanghaiHongqiaoTiandiinApr23withacouponrateof39AssumingaLTVof50thisrepresentsaheadroomofadditionalfinancingofcRMB17bnfromitsIPsPutthingsintoperspectiveSOLhasdebtmaturitiesofRMB53bnandRMB120bninFY23andFY24respectivelyAsatJun23ithadcashandpledgeddepositstotaledRMB122bnRMB7-8bnoftheseareunrestrictedcashaccordingtoSOLRMBmnDec22Jun23Cash11176095250Cashinescrow7000-8000STdebts123320122940LTdebts220080238920Netdebts231640239470Netgearing522542CashSTdebts09x08xAdjliabassets554555SourceCompanyfillingsTherewasalsonoupdateontheprogressofbondholderidentificationAsdiscussedbeforeweunderstandthebondholderidentificationisonSHUION575111223andSHUION615082424thecompanys2largestosUSDbondsand2nearestmaturitiesThebondidentificationreflectsthatSOLcouldexploreoptionsindealingwiththeupcomingmaturitiesWecontinuetobelievethatSOLisnotinadireneedforadistressedexchangegivenitspotentialfundingaccessthroughcollateralizationofitshighqualityIPsBesidesSOLisnotunderanyratingpressuretohaveareadyrefinancingplanaheadofdebtmaturitiesgivenitsunratedstatusHenceevenifthecompanygoesforbondexerciseweenvisagethistobevoluntarilyandsimilartotheoneofHHinJun23BesidesanymaturityextensionwillprobablybelimitedtonotbeyondMar25thenextmaturityofitsUSDbondsafterSHUION575111223andSHUION615082424SHUIONswere8-31ptslowerthanthelevelsinmidJul23subsequenttonewsonbondholderidentificationandcollateraldamagefromthesharppricemovementofCOGARDsWeconsiderthecurrentvaluationsofSHUIONsoffergoodentrypointsSHUIONswere015to075lowertodayLNGFORPlanstoissuethirdCBICL-guaranteedbondsMediareportedLongforsplantoissueuptoRMB11bncUSD152mnCBICL-guaranteed3-yronshorebondTheindicativecouponrangeis3-38ThiswillbeLongforsthirdCBICL-guaranteedbondsaftertheissuesinAugandNov22LongforwasreportedtoissueLNGHDV3113025inNov22withaLTVof80ofitspledgedpropertiesTakingcuesfromitspreviousCBICL-backedissuesthenewbondscouldbepricedatlow-mid3AsdiscussedinourcommentsonLongforon21Aug23weconsiderLongforasurvivorofChinarealestatesectorasthecompanyhas1manageablenear-termmaturitiesespeciallyoffshorematurities2maturedportfolioofinvestmentpropertiesIPswhichcanbemonetizedorcollateralizedtoobtainoperatingloansCMBSorissueCBICL-guaranteedbondsTheIPswillbeanalternativesourceofliquiditypriortoameaningfulsalesrecoveryand3Longforismajorpositioninginhighertiercitiesthat83ofits5489mnsqmlandbank323Aug2023areintier12citiesBesidesLongforistheonlynon-SOEdeveloperunderourradaramong35developerstorecordyoyincreasedcontractedsalesin7M23withRMB7324bnrepresentinga7yoygrowthWehavebuyrecommendationsonLNGFORsLNGFORsrebounded45-5ptspostthe1H23resultsandrose05-125ptthismorningTable1LongforsCBICL-guaranteedbondsosamountIndicativeIssueDateCouponRMBmncouponrangeLNGHDV311302511292220003-383LNGHDV3308262508252215003-4333SourceWINDChart1Longforsbondsmaturityasof17Aug23RMBbnSourceCompanypresentationOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFHangzhouShangchengDistrict2003yr585585--BBB-UrbanDevelopmentOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFBankofCommunicationsHKUSD-3yrSOFR105A2--Newsandmarketcolor423Aug2023Regardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere121creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB127bnAsforMonth-to-date1458creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1229bnraisedrepresentinga67yoyincreaseAGILEAgileGroupexpectedtorecorduptoRMB37bnnetlossfor1H23CHALUMChalieco1H23revenuedropped85yoytoUSD13bnandoperatingincometurnedtonegativeUSD130mnfromUSD383mnprofitin1H22CNFOREChinaForestryGroupissuedRMB700mn270-daybillsatacouponrateof450COGARDMediareportedthatCountryGardenpaidontimethe21AuginterestonUSD846mn-equivalentdual-trancheoffshorerefinancingfacilityclosedinJulySINOCESino-OceanGroupunitSOGChinadoesnotexpecttosettleprincipalamountofcorporatebondsinfullwithin30-daygraceperiodits18Yuanyang01bondswillresumetradingfrom23AugSOFTBKMediareportedthatSoftBankstartedtosellsomeLatinAmericaninvestmentsataprofitYNPOWEYunnanProvincialEnergyInvestmentredeemedalloutstandingUSD150mnguaranteedperpson20AugitproposestoofferuptoRMB2bnone-yearbillstorepaydebtsFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnot523Aug2023assumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6