研究报告全文：MN23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCRPower836HK1H23thermalpowerearningsturnaroundrenewablesenergysegmentacceleratedgrowthTargetPriceHK2343CRPowerannounced1H23resultswithcoreprofitbeatingmarketexpectationPreviousTPHK2320TheCompanytargetstoadd40000MWrenewableenergyinstalledcapacityandUpDownside452theproportionofinstalledcapacityofrenewableenergywillexceed50bytheCurrentPriceHK1614endofthe14thFive-yearPlanperiodCRPoweraddedsignificantrenewablescapacityreservetosupportcontinuousexpansionsWeexpectCRPowertoChinaEnergymaintainrobustgrowthmomentumin2H23supportedbygoodmomentumofrenewablepowergenerationandbetterfuelcostsWeadjustTPtoHK2343MeganXiaCESGAMaintainBUY852376108361H23coreprofitbeatinlinewithourestimatesCRPowerannouncedmeganxiacmbicomhk1H23resultswith1revenueattributablenetprofitofHK5148674bnupby21YoYand542YoYInparticularrenewablessegmentrecordedattributablecoreNPofHK595bnupby13YoY2ThermalpowersegmentachievedacoreNPturnaroundandrecordedHK073bnin1H23StockDataHK-14bnin1H22dueto10YoYfallinfuelcosts3majorexpensesMktCapHKmn776000werelargelyinlinewhilenetfinancialcostswereslightlyupby82YoYAvg3mthstoHKmn202152wHighLowHK188011404CRpowerannouncedaninterimdividendofHK0328shareupbyTotalIssuedSharesmn1000562YoYSourceFactSetRenewableenergysegmentmaintainedrapidgrowthCRPowerstotalelectricitysalesascendedby7YoYin1H23WindpowersaleswereShareholdingStructureboostedby153YoYandsolarpowersalesincreasedsignificantlybyCRHPowerLtd629509YoYin1H23basedonfavorablewindconditionsandlargerFirstSeafrontFund42attributableoperationalinstalledcapacityofnewenergyBy1H23CRSourceHKExPowersattributableoperationalgenerationcapacityofwindsolarrecorded16682MWand2009MWandboththeattributablegenerationcapacitySharePerformanceunderconstructionofwindpowerandsolarpowerexceeded5GWAbsoluteRelative1-mth-5118respectivelyIn2H23webelievetheCompanywillspeedupandinvest3-mth-136-44moreinrenewablesegmentconstruction6-mth-22123CRpowersthermalpowersegmentachievedaprofitturnaroundinSourceFactSet1H23expecttoshowfurtherimprovementin2H23Thethermalpowersaleslifted49YoYin1H23Thetariffex-taxforcoal-firedpowerroseby12-mthPricePerformance18YoYtoRMB430MWhMoreoverCRPowerscoalfuelcostdroppedgraduallyandinlinewithourestimatesItsavgstandardcoalpriceunitfuelcostdropped7981YoYtoRMB10453tonneandRMB3096MWhConsequentlyCRPowerpostedaturnaroundonprofitofHK07bninthethermalpowersegmentin1H23HK-144bnin1H22andHK-258bninFY22In2H23withrisingrealizedproportionofitscoalunderlong-termcontractsandlowerfuelcostswethinkCRPowersthermalpowerperformancewillfurtherimproveSourceFactSetMaintainBUYwithTPofHK2343Weremainedourestimateslargelyunchangedbutslightlyliftedthewindpowergenerationgrowthfrom111018to131718YoYin2023-25EduetosolidattributableoperationalinstalledcapacityConsequentlyweadjustednetprofitforecastto13179mn15492mn18420mnOurSOTP-basedTPwasadjustedtoHK2343basedon14xFY23EPBofrenewablesegmentpeersavgPBof12xinFY23Eand07xFY23forwardPBofthermalsegmentpeersavgPBofaround07xinFY23EMaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKmn89800103305114284122125130802NetprofitHKmn1592770425131787154923184201EPSReportedHK033146274322383YoYgrowth7903422871176189ConsensusEPSHKna146245294331PEx428105595042PBx0809080807ROE1883151159169SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug2023Figure1RevisionTableBookvaluePerTargetHKmn-sharePBFY23EHKDThermalpowersegment1759407x24Renewablepowersegment7500514x211Total2343SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2RevisionTableOldNewChange2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025EWindpowergenerationkGWh384545025294410147065534674545SolarpowergenerationkGWh29386214782938621478000000Coal-firedpowergenerationkGWh157162167157162167000000RevenueHKDmn112940121074129603114284122125130802120909NetIncomeHKDmn122991480417634131791549218420724645EPSHKD256308367274032213829714643SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3PEBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PBBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023Figure5PeerstablerenewablesegmentSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6PeerstablethermalpowersegmentSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue6955189800103305114284122125130802Costofgoodssold324945844464283618246365465538Grossprofit370573135639022524605847165264Operatingexpenses126211399915207165661793619208Staffcosts600163556632724180338732Others6620764485759324990310476Operatingprofit244361735723815358954053646056Otherincome246028121982198219821982EBITDA268962016925797378764251748038Depreciation114681459814245145431604017454Otheramortisation245018516212491EBIT15184557111367231712635330492Interestincome349301192192192192Interestexpense377140614083434042104169Foreignexchangegainloss000000Otherincomeexpense799122199122122122Others1090922184000Pre-taxprofit1147018419461191452245726638Incometax27949581906478656146659Aftertaxprofit86768847556143591684319978Minorityinterest1094709513118013511558Netprofit758315937042131791549218420BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets406385394048631354203558732919Cashequivalents5036793477219655106696419Accountreceivables314283776935616205711954020928Inventories291267484582440645374671Contractassets12621489712787841901Non-currentassets218994233415234757251674267131281207PPE180817192953191356208313223773237819Deferredincometax86110411075107510751075Goodwill745664622460335244Othernon-currentassets283672999732654326543265432654Totalassets259632287355283388287093302718314126Currentliabilities650656805982671750047983278331Short-termborrowings201582318638383294173245928899Accountpayables335873413630248290912995230838Othercurrentliabilities113201073714039164961742218594Non-currentliabilities88617112245100164999979922598357Long-termborrowings8210910531093322931559238391515Othernon-currentliabilities650769356842684268426842Totalliabilities153682180304182835175000179058176688Sharecapital223172231722317223172231722317Retainedearnings465804439049783601437036082579Otherreserves169062168110139101391013910139Totalshareholdersequity85803883888223992598102816115035Minorityinterest201481866318315194952084622404Totalequityandliabilities259632287355283388287094302719314127PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation114702110489461191452245726638Depreciationamortization117131459814430147051616417546Changeinworkingcapital633910599595164442634476Netcashfromoperations20702740024167453863551937878InvestingCapitalexpenditure305292511832580315003150031500Others190557201267000Netcashfrominvesting286241939833847315003150031500FinancingDividendpaid275631551226281952756201Netborrowings335902775343383383832941732459Others443974580454077292503168828031Netcashfromfinancing805114896946811952300510629NetchangeincashCashattheendoftheyear1292898213193310154251GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue262911501066971Grossprofit76154244344115116Operatingprofit190290372507129136EBITDA151250279468123130EBIT19163310401038137157Netprofit1517903422871176189PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin533349378459479499Operatingmargin351193231314332352EBITDAmargin387225250331348367ReturnonequityROE961883151159169GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox060806050404VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE58428105595042PB050809080807Divyield692138688095SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE523Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6