研究报告全文：MN23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HK1H23firsttakein-linewithprofitwarningMarginpressureremainsanoverhangTargetPriceHK7809WhileSunnys1H23netprofitdeclineof68YoYisin-linewithourestimatePreviousTPHK7809anditsprofitwarningdown65-70YoYits1H23GPMof149iswellbelowUpDownside209ourconsensusestimateof172171givendemandweaknesslowerCurrentPriceHK6460utilizationandde-spectrendWeexpect2H23EHCMHLSshipmentwillrecoverYoYQoQgivenrestockingandlowbaseeffectin1H22butmarginwillremainChinaTechnologyunderpressuregivenslowdemandrecoveryandlimitedspecupgradeIntheAlexNGlongtermwearepositiveonautoLiDARHUDARVRtodrivefuturegrowth85239000881Tradingat365x231xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedAnalystalexngcmbicomhkbriefingwillbehostedat1030amtodayandwewilllookforrevisiononshipmentASPguidanceandbusinessoutlookonARVRautobusinessHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhk1H23weaknessin-lineHCMHLSmarginisworse-than-expected1H23StockDatarevenueNPdeclined1668YoYlargelyin-linewithitsprofitwarningandMktCapHKmn708662ourestimatesGPMdroppedfurtherto149in1H23from190in2H22Avg3mthstoHKmn398952wHighLowHK116306345draggedbyrecord-lowHCMGPMof69andweakerGPMinHLSVLSInTotalIssuedSharesmn10970additionHCMHLSASPcameinworse-than-expectedwithcontinuedHoHSourceFactSetdeclinebutVLSASPheldupwellwithdouble-digitgrowthYoYShareholdingStructureSunXuLtd355Expect2H23shipmentrecoverybutmarginremainsunderpressureinJPMorganChaseCo49theneartermWeexpectHCMHLSshipmenttorecoverHoHYoYinSourceHKEx2H23EgivenlowbaseandinventoryrestockingWesuggesttofocusonSharePerformancemanagementsshipmentguidancerevisionduringearningscallwhichmightAbsoluteRelativesharesomecolorondemandrecoveryin2H23EWenotedthatsmartphone1-mth-4920semiplayerscommentedthatinventorydestockingisapproachingtheend3-mth-209-125in3Q23Eandwebelieveseasonalstrengthandproductlaunchesshould6-mth-303-200SourceFactSetboost3Q23Edemandrecovery12-mthPricePerformanceKeyquestionsformgmtatinvestormeeting1HLSmarketsharegainandspecupgradewithUSmajorcustomers2periscopecamoutlookinAndroidcamp3VLSoutlookgivenslowerglobalautosales4automoduleclientorderwinsand5ARVRoutlookgivenmajorcustomerweaknessMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK7809WhilewearepositiveonSunnystechnologyleadershipproductroadmapandhugeopportunitiesinautoSourceFactSetcameraVCMARVRwebelieveslowdemandrecoveryandmarginRelatedReportspressurewillremaintheoverhangforthestockTradingat365x231x11H23profitwarningworsethanFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDwithfearedMaintainHoldlinkSOTP-basedTPofHK7809EarningsSummary21H23previewBetterASPtoYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EoffsetshipmentweaknessFocusondemandrecoveryin2H23ElinkRevenueRMBmn3749733197314803601039690YoYgrowth13115521441023NDRtakeawaysabumpy1H23NetprofitRMBmn4993224078180112847435530aheadAutoVRARbiztodriveYoYgrowth23518252581248long-termgrowth28Mar2023linkEPSReportedRMB457220165260325ConsensusEPSRMB458248273353439PEx383468365231185PBx9251282624Yield0509121924ROE26511279118136Netgearing1612260321395SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug20231H23ResultsReviewFigure11H23resultsreviewCMBIConsensusRMBmn2H211H222H221H23YoY1H23EDiff1H23EDiffRevenue17663169721622514279-1613733415212-6Grossprofit3790352230832131-402357-102597-18Operatingprofit250617981216794-5667518801-1Netprofit230513581050437-68460-5788-45EPSRMB211124096040-68042-5081-50Grossmargin215208190149-25ppt172-22ppt171-22pptOperatingmargin1421067556-67ppt4906ppt5303pptNetmargin131806531-66ppt33-03ppt52-21pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure21H23revenuebreakdownRMBmn1H222H221H23YoYFY21FY22YoYOpticalcompVLSHLS439950694318-2877694688Autolensshipmentmnunit38414725687916ASPRMB3584274622934439615HandsetlensShipmentmnunit651654105128-211439511926-17ASPRMB404731-233326-23OptoelectronicHCM12371109559737-212833423326-18HCMshipmentmnunit289228255-12674517-23ASPRMB393392352-103883993Opticalinstruments202202224113874034TotalRevenue169721622514279-163749729813-20GrossMarginOpticalcompVLSHLS355315260-95ppt395334-61pptOptoelectronicHCM1169769-47ppt137107-30pptOpticalinstruments446463427-19ppt451420-31pptBlendedGPM208190149-58ppt233199-34pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK7809WemaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK7809Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof249xFY24EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign18xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinasNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure3SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY24EProfitFY24EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules36909618xHandsetlenses35709325xVehiclelenses24706435xOthers2700725xTotalRMBImpliedPE260249xTPHK781SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24ESunnyOptical2382HKHOLD904064678121365231282679118Qtech1478HKBUY4402936238756060670101Cowell1415HKNR15651444NANA2091273629179231Truly732HKNR335083NANA------Catcher2474TTNR356916750NANA12914507075546Largan3008TTNR8442202000NANA1531381716112115Lite-on2301TTNR1105114900NANA2261874141185218Primax4915TTNR9196390NANA107971615152159O-film002456CHNR2389535NANA--6568369240Average18013927265792SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure512MforwardPEbandFigure612MforwardPBband1001890168014701260105084063020410200201420152016201720182019202020212022202320142015201620172018201920202021202220231-yrForwardPEMean1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue380023749733197314803601039690Costofgoodssold293042876126592257952903131649Grossprofit869887366605568569798040Sellingexpense313274353342288298Adminexpense719758929821864873RDexpense249926422803259329173175Others698789504512803885Operatingprofit587758513014244137134579ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV0196666NetInterestincomeexpense224230293322354390Pre-taxprofit565356402715211333534183Incometax703579241247402502Minorityinterest68686665103128Netprofit488249932408180128473553Netdividends799974104878412391546BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets256302798930646257743421030942Cashequivalents284256057033208373394608Accountreceivables821274487205669092058315Inventories578354824721531459806333STbankdeposits2381112485485485485FinancialassetsatFVTPL8480831410086100861008610086Othercurrentassets74281115111511151115Non-currentassets98091078512356136761424514507PPE7513830310120114531198712221Othernon-currentassets229524812236222322582286Totalassets354383877443001394504845545449Currentliabilities134111187319337147042199716856Short-termborrowings207115391990199019901990Accountpayables1073398691291782841557710436Othercurrentliabilities922315493875714473889116167Non-currentliabilities520160051482148214821482Long-termborrowings070030303030Othernon-currentliabilities520153051452145214521452Totalliabilities186121787920819161862347918338Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves164922048321733227512435926366Totalshareholdersequity168262089522182232652497627112Minorityinterest229307344409512640Totalequityandliabilities354383877443001394504845545449PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation564356402715211333534183Depreciationamortization157016381816216624662766Changeinworkingcapital1152004053471241134604Others16849912078983141Netcashfromoperations71606979737734498492205InvestingCapitalexpenditure227124983633350030003000Others3705403201000Netcashfrominvesting597629023834350030003000FinancingDividendpaid796974104878412391546Netborrowings101700000Sharerepurchases15100000Others2912671111322354390Netcashfromfinancing22212412159110615931936NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear191728425605703320837339Exchangedifference377344000Cashattheendoftheyear284256057033208373394608SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE523Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6