研究报告全文：MN24Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCSPCPharmaceutical1093HKSteadyfinisheddrugsalesCSPCreported1H23revenueofRMB1608bn30YoYandattributablenetTargetPriceHK808profitofRMB297bnflattishYoYTheadjustedattributablenetprofitexclPreviousTPHK1028impactfromfairvaluechangeoffinancialassetsandshare-basedcompensationUpDownside435in1H23increased30YoYtoRMB316bnThe1H23salesoffinisheddrugsCurrentPriceHK563increased52YoYtoRMB1293bnwiththenervoussystemdiseaseproductsrecording175YoYsalesgrowthtoRMB455bnmainlydrivenbythestrongChinaHealthcaresalesgrowthofNBPSalesofoncologyproductsweakenedin1H23-260JillWUCFAYoYmainlyaffectedbytheloweredpriceofKeailiduetotherenewalof85239000842jillwucmbicomhkcentralisedprocurementSalesofvitaminCproductsdecreased257YoYtoRMB1040bnduetothedownwardtrendinpricesince3Q22HoweverdrivenbyAndyWANGsalesvolumegrowthsalesofantibioticproductsincreasedby191YoYto85236576288RMB093bnRevenueoffunctionalfoodandotherbusinessgrew35YoYtoandywangcmbicomhkRMB118bnevenwithdeclineinthepriceofcaffeineproductsThegrossprofitmargindecreasedby27from726in1H22to699in1H23mainlyduetoStockDataMktCapHKmn670939theloweredpricesofKeailiandvitaminCIn1H23CSPCrecordedRMB230bnAvg3mthstoHKmn2458RDexpenses223YoYaccountingfor178oftherevenueofthefinished52wHighLowHK1018562drugbusinessTheSGAratiohasdecreasedto338in1H23from383inTotalIssuedSharesmn11917SourceFactSet1H22indicatingenhancedmarketingefficiencyShareholdingStructureNewproductstorampupfastNBPrealizedstrongsalesgrowthin1H23MassiveGiantGroupLtd102thankstotheeaseofCOVID-19andstrongsalesfromretailchannelswhileCaiDongchen99weexpectthesalesofoncologyproductscontinuetobeunderpressureSourceBloombergOverallweexpecttheCompanyslegacyproductstomaintainstablesalesSharePerformancewhilenewproductswillrampupfastincludingDuoendaAnfulikeandAbsoluteRelativeMingfuleAlreadyapprovedforPTCLDuoendaasabroad-spectrumanti-1-mth-111-49tumornanodrughasthepotentialtotreatvarioustypesofcancersAPh3trial3-mth-265-200ofDuoendafor2LNPCisongoingAnfulikeisthemainlipid-based6-mth-359-269SourceFactSetamphotericinBwithobvioussafetyadvantagesfortreatinginvasivefungalinfectionCSPCisbroadeningthehospitalcoverageforAnfulikeMingfulea12-mthPricePerformance3rd-generationthrombolyticdrughasastrongsynergybetweenNBPforthetreatmentofischemicstrokeWeexpectatotalofRMB1bnrevenuefromtheabovenewproductsin2023AdditionallyweexpectDuoendaglumetinibduvelisibanddesvenlafaxinetotoenterNRDLinearly2024ContinuetoexpandtheproductportfolioCSPCexpectstobringthreedozenproductstothemarketoverthecomingthreeyearsJMT103RANKLforgiantcelltumorofboneirinotecanliposomeforpancreaticcancerandSourceFactSetMingfulerhTNK-tPAfornewindicationofacuteischemicstrokeareexpectedtobeapprovedin2H23In2024weexpectmultipleproductstobelaunchedinChinaincludingbatoclimabFcRnforMGomalizumabbiosimilarforurticarialamphotericinBlipsomeforinvasivefungalinfectionDBPR108DPP4fordiabetesetcfurtherexpandingtheCompanyscommercialproductportfolioMaintainBUYWeexpectCSPCsrevenuetogrow3057andattributablenetprofittogrow-0678YoYinFY23E24EGiventhechallengingbusinessenvironmentinChinawerevisedourDCF-basedTPfromHK1028toHK808WACC1185terminalgrowth20EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn2786730937318603367735408YoYgrowth117110305751NetprofitRMBmn56056091605865296978YoYgrowth8896027869EPSReportedRMB047051051055059PEx1681421039589Netgearing409441532593646SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Aug2023Figure1CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue318603367735408325553488437482-21-35-55Grossprofit222042357424785224622476826237-11-48-55Operatingprofit757780278581773182338696-20-25-13Netprofit605865296978625166627049-31-20-10EPSRMB051055059053056059-31-20-10Grossmargin69697000700069007100700007ppt-1ppt0pptOperatingmargin237823842424237523602320004ppt024ppt104pptNetmargin190119391971192019101881-019ppt029ppt09pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue318603367735408328173554238710-29-52-85Grossprofit222042357424785229952510727457-34-61-97Operatingprofit757780278581792986569405-44-73-88Attributablenetprofit605865296978623267987425-28-40-60EPSRMB051055059052057062-21-36-48Grossmargin696970007000700770647093-038ppt-064ppt-093pptOperatingmargin237823842424241624352430-038ppt-052ppt-006pptNetmargin190119391971189919131918002ppt026ppt053pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT7577802785818839906092419380947395219521Taxrate1694169416941694169416941694169416941694EBIT1-taxrate6294666871287342752576767791786979087908DA1048104810481085111211281134112811111084-Changeinworkingcapital345-176-114-118-121-122-123-122-121-118-Capx-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800FCFF6887673972627509771678828002807580998074Terminalvalue83654Terminalgrowthrate200WACC1185CostofEquity1510CostofDebt500EquityBeta110RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1100TargetDebttoAssetratio3000EffectiveCorporateTaxRate1500TerminalvalueRMBmn27310TotalPVRMBmn69826NetdebtRMBmn-18319MinorityinterestsRMBmn1610EquityvalueRMBmn86534ofsharesmn11903DCFpershareinHK808SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue249422786730937318603367735408Costofgoodssold62576732868096561010310622Grossprofit186852113522256222042357424785Sellingexpense9378104431033796361044010906Adminexpense94610101173106111791168RDexpense289034333987435543784603Others585546815426450473Operatingprofit605767957574757780278581GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL000000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV3476033376060NetInterestincomeexpense12825241517Pre-taxprofit639168477582751781028658Incometax116211591350127313721466Minorityinterest6983141186200214Netprofit516056056091605865296978Grossdividends152816912097181719592093Netdividends3999187BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets159212033723957289693386439149Cashequivalents7259928410298148021912823844Accountreceivables288338904631476950415300Inventories186124802555284229743126Prepayment000000STbankdeposits153514433575357535753575Othercurrentassets238232402898298231463303Non-currentassets141491440517813175651731717069PPE777085299582957995779574Deferredincometax11743113113113113Intangibles5094681908181817271637Goodwill11641035139512401085930FinancialassetsatFVTPL187719792126212621262126Othernon-currentassets271123512689268926892689Totalassets300703474241770465345118156218Currentliabilities630272268958931692129171Short-termborrowings9901533428381334Accountpayables475961626864763579888399Taxpayable379261262262262262Othercurrentliabilities10658031679176218001844Non-currentliabilities6676871170117011701170Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities6676871170117011701170Totalliabilities6969791310128104861038210341Sharecapital108991089910899108991089910899Otherreserves114331508719298235392810932994Totalshareholdersequity223322598730198344383900943893Minorityinterest7698421444161017901983Totalequityandliabilities300703474241770465345118156218PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation639168477582751781028658Depreciationamortization8098651048104810481048Taxpaid106111411335127313721466Changeinworkingcapital16801388798345176114Others1079547467000Netcashfromoperations674046377627763776018126InvestingCapitalexpenditure135614102220800800800Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments000000Others7737734576000Netcashfrominvesting21306376796800800800FinancingDividendpaid152816912097181719592093Netborrowings1690486000Proceedsfromshareissues000000Sharerepurchases026414000Others112242279516516516Netcashfromfinancing147121971904233424752609NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear411872599060102981480219128Exchangedifference2214000Others000000Cashattheendoftheyear725990608001148021912823844GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue128117110305751Grossprofit17413153026251Operatingprofit317122115005969Netprofit4018896027869PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin749758719697700700Operatingmargin243244245238238242ReturnonequityROE256235222193183174GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx040404050606Currentratiox252827313743Receivableturnoverdays734929877877877877Inventoryturnoverdays108613451074107410741074Payableturnoverdays294535243196319631963196VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE1841681421039589PEdiluted1841681421039589PB413527171514PCFPS141203114828277Divyield161824293134SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5