研究报告全文：23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainGlobalfablessIDM2Q23wrapexpectcontinuedinventorycorrectionfornon-AIplayersAlleyesonNVDA3Q23EguidanceMajorglobalsemifablessIDMcompaniesAMDIntelQualcommTIInfineonSTMMTKOnSemireportedin-line2Q23butmixed3Q23outlookondiversifiedChinaTechnologySectorexposureonAIapplicationsslowerconsumerelectronicsdemandrecoverycontinuedinventorydigestionandmarginpressureOverallinventorydigestionAlexNGisbelowexpectationin2Q23leadingtorisingDOIformostfablessplayers85239000881alexngcmbicomhkDemandrecoveryisexpectedtoremainweakin2H23EwithplannedproductioncutformostcompaniesespeciallyforthosewithlimitedexposuretoAIWeClaudiaLIUbelievetheworstisbehindwithglobalfablesssemisalesin2Q23withgradualclaudialiucmbicomhkQoQrevenuerecoveryinto3Q4Q23EExpect3Q23ErevenuesequentialgrowthwithGPMpressurefornon-AIplayersMostfablesscompaniespostedrevenueQoQgrowthin2Q23AMDIntelTISTMMTKOnSemi0113237exceptInfineonQualcomm-1-9QoQgivenweaksmartphoneandconsumerelectronicsFor3Q23EmostfablessguidedrevenueQoQgrowthexceptInfineonflatQoQAsforGPMplayerswithrelativelyhigherAIapplicationexposuresAMDIntelguidedstrongimprovementduetohigh-valuedatacenterproductdrivingbetterproductmixwhileothersexpectGPMtocontinuetrendingdownfromthepeakduetoinventorydigestionpricingpressurecapacityidlecostsandadditionalcostsfromnewfabramp-upRisingDOIwithinventorycorrectioninto3Q23Efornon-AIplayersWewitnessedrisingDOIacrossmostnon-AIexposedplayersexceptMediaTekFordemandmostcompaniesexpectsmartphonePCserverdestockingwillextendinto2H23EandautomotivedownstreamdemandwillgraduallynormalizeAIrelatedproductservesaskeygrowthdriveramidslowerindustryrecoveryDespiteboomingdemandforAIserversthatbenefitsleadingdatacentrecomputingchipvendorswewitnessedweakeningdemandforglobalservershipmentsince4Q22andservermarketinventorycorrectionisexpectedtocontinueinto2H23EAccordinglymajorglobalcloudplayershaveloweredoverallcapexspendingindicatingabroaderweaknessofITinfrastructuredemanddespitethepullfromAIrelatedapplicationsOtherhighlights1NVDApriorCY2Q23FY2Q24guidanceof53QoQrevgrowthvsAMDDatacenter2QoQandIntelDatacenter8QoQ2Foundrywaferpricecutwillbepositivetomarginsofupstreamfablessplayersin2H23EValuationTableMktCapPricePExPBxROENameTickerUSmnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY23ENVIDIANVDAUS112800045671400560526297AMDAMDUS17071210573842553169IntelINTCUS1377433296111941317BroadcomAVGOUS3531728558203188172758TexasInstrumentsTXNUS151730167122521092428SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug2023Figure1GlobalfablessIDMsemi2Q23resultsand3Q23guidance3Q23EFY23ECompany1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23GuidanceGuidanceCommentOutlookRevenueQoQGrowthNVIDIA8-19-1221953--2Q23isguidanceAMD2211-151-40up65-2Q23QoQDC2Client35Gaming-10Embedded-73Q23QoQClientDataCentertogrowdouble-digitGamingembeddedtodecline2023DataCenteruphigh-singledigityoyIntel-11-170-8-1711up35-3Q23ClientCPUshipmentstocloselymatchsell-through3Q23Datacenternetworkedgecontinuetofacemixedmacrosignalsandelevatedinventoryinnetworkedge3Q23IFSandMobileyestrongQoQYoYgrowth3Q23ServerCPUstodeclineQoQbeforerecoveringinQ4Broadcom5460-21--2Q23isguidanceQualcomm4-24-17-2-9up04-3Q23QoQAndroidhandsetflatIoTmid-single-digitdeclineAutolowdouble-digitgrowthTexasInstruments261-11-63up04-3Q23donotexpectsignificantchangeinend-marketsperformancewhichmeansweaknessacrosstheboardwiththeexceptionofautomotiveInfineon41015-54-1Flat12-162Q23strongautomotiveindustrialbutexpecttonormalizecomputingCEcommperformedYoYwellinchallengingenvironment3Q23BydivisiondonotexpectmajordifferencesinQoQgrowthSTMicro08132-42up125-103Q23impactedbyproductmixchgininPersonalElectronicsYoY3Q23QoQADGsingle-digitgrowthAMSflattishMDGslightlydecreaseMediaTek119-9-24-123up75-3Q23revenuetoimproveinsmartphonesconnectivityandPMICoffsettingdeclineinTVconsumerONSemi575-4-77up25-3Q23AutoindustrialtoincreaseQoQOthermarketsdownmidtohighsingle-digitsplanfurtherexitsinnon-coremarketGrossMarginNVIDIA664354636569--2Q23GPMisguidanceAMD48464243445051-2Q23yoyweakerClientpartiallyoffsetbystrongEmbedded3Q23PositiveimpactfromstrongDatacenterClientbizIntel50364339344043-3Q23marginupQoQonhighersalesandlowerpre-PRQinventory4Q23upQoQonlowerpre-PRQreservesBroadcom6767666770---2Q23guidancedown60bpsQoQduetoproductmixQualcomm585657575555--2Q23QTLEBTmargin66QCTEBTmargin243Q23QTLEBTmargin64-68QCTEBTmargin24-26TexasInstruments707069666564--3Q23guidanceconsidereddepreciationrelatedcostsfromaddedcapacityovertimeInfineon434344474745-472Q23QoQdropduetoincrementalunderutilizationchargesadditionalramp-upcostsandweakercurrencyFY23GPMguidancestayunchangedSTMicro47474848504948exceed2Q233Q23GPMhitbyplannedlowerproductionactivityamidhighinventoryandweakCE48demand2H23impactedbyunusedcapacitychargesfor100bpsMediaTek50494948484847--3Q23SteadyGPMgivenstablecompetitivelandscapehealthyinventorylevelandreduced15pptspricingpressureONSemi49504849474746-48-2Q23GPMstrengthdrivenbysiliconcarbidebusinessprofitabilityimprovementdespiteheadwindsfromEFK3Q23lowerfactoryutilizationEFKheadwindsanddilutiveimpactofsiliconcarbidebusinessDaysofInventoryDOINVIDIA10092146209163----AMD716894106127141--2Q23Inventoryincreasedforrampofadvproducts2H23inventorytodeclinewithshipmentofthisproduct2H23PCmarketwithmorenormalizedinventorylevels2H23DOIaround110-120daysvsprior75-80daysIntel118113131139152130--2Q23overallinventoryhasnormalized2Q23NEXinventorycorrectionin2QcontinueintoQ32H23ServerCPUinventorydigestiontopersistin2HBroadcom5659585965----Qualcomm88101117154149157--2Q23AndroidcontinueinventoryburnIoTinventoryelevatedTexasInstruments127125133157195207--2Q23DOIup12daysQoQ3Q23inventorydollarstoincreaseQoQInfineon121124120140143149--2Q23satisfactoryinAutomotiveGIPbutoutofnormalrangelevelforPSSCSS2H23Inventorydigestiontocontinuewithcapacityidlechargetopeakin4Q23STMicro10210395100121124--2Q23inventorydaysoutofsatisfactoryrange3Q23inventorycorrectioninpersonalelectronicstocontinue2H23reduceproductionactivitytoboostinventoydigestionaimtobringdownDOIto100-110daysbyyearendMediaTek113104104114125107--2Q23customersstillmanaginginventorylevelsduetoweakdemandmobilephoneinventorylevelsnormalizedsmartedgeTVinventorypre-buildin1H233Q23nomoreheavyinventorydigestionbyaggressivepricingONSemi137134125134157161--2Q2354daysofbridgeinventorytosupportfabtransitionandsiliconcarbiderampbaseinventorydaysdeclined7daysQoQ2Q23DistributioninventoryDOIup07weekQoQat77weeks2Q23DistributioninventorydigestioncontinuesSourceCompanyannouncementBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023Figure2NVIDIAFY2Q24EearningsandsegmentalconsensusNVIDIANVDAUSConsensusUSmnFY1Q24FY2Q24EFY2Q23QoQYoYRevenue71921104267045465EPScentUS10920702690696GPM66870143533ppt266pptEndMarketRevenueDatacenter42847981380686110Gaming224023802042617ProfessionalVisualization2953194968-36OEMIP779214019-35Automotive296309220541EndMarketRevenueMixDatacenter607257Gaming312231ProfessionalVisualization437OEMIP112Automotive433SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMFigure3GlobalkeycloudplayersCAPEXandFigure4GlobalkeycloudplayersCAPEXandYoYintensityratiotrendUSDmnUSDmn45000164500012040000144000010035000350001280300003000010250006025000820000402000015000620150001000010000450000500020-20004Q111Q142Q163Q184Q202Q221Q231Q113Q122Q134Q143Q151Q174Q172Q191Q203Q21MetaMSFTGoogleCAPEXCAPEXIntensityAmazonOracleYoYSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMFigure5GlobalservershipmentandYoYgrowthFigure6ChinaservershipmentandYoYgrowthmnunitsmnunits45251450402012403515103030100820255200610015040-51002-1005-1000-2000-151Q111Q123Q133Q143Q151Q171Q181Q193Q203Q213Q223Q113Q121Q131Q141Q151Q163Q163Q173Q183Q191Q201Q211Q221Q231Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q203Q113Q123Q133Q143Q153Q163Q173Q183Q193Q201Q213Q211Q223Q221Q23ChinaservershipmentYoYGlobalservershipmentYoYSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4