研究报告全文：MN24Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePolyServices6049HK1H23resultsinlinebutARremainsaconcernPolyServicesrecorded22YoYincreaseinnetprofitin1H23inlinewithitsTargetPriceHK5731full-yeartargetNPgrowthwaslargelyhigherthanthatofrevenue11YoYPreviousTPHK5839reflectingmarginimprovementbackedbyhigherbusinessconcentrationandUpDownside549optimizedVASbusinessstructureAccountsreceivableremainsaconcernasCurrentPriceHK3700publicservicewithlongercashcollectionperiodiscontributingmoreinrevenuewhilethatwillbeanindustrypuzzleasthebusinessisonetheGFAChinaPropertyManagementgrowthpointsforthesectorWebelievetheCompanywilldeliverdecentgrowthMiaoZHANGbackedbyitsSOEparentcoandadvantageonwinninggovernmentproject85237618910MaintainBUYzhangmiaocmbicomhkNPgrowthRevenuegrowthmarginimprovementTheCompanyreportedNPofRMB764mnin1H23a22YoYincreasethatismuchNikaMAhigherthanthe11YoYgrowthofrevenuereflectingtheimprovementon85239000805bothGPM212in1H23from202in1H22andSGAfeerate73nikamacmbicomhkin1H23from80in1H22TheimprovementsweremainlyattributabletoStockData1forBasicPMtheCompanystartsfocusingonprojectdensityandcuttingMktCapHKmn37000third-partyexpansionrangeto48citiesfrom100citiesoriginally2forAvg3mthstoHKmn456communityVAStheCompanystartsseekinggrowthqualityamong52wHighLowHK60052905residentswhohavelowwillingnesstospendandquittinglow-marginTotalIssuedSharesmn1000businessrelatedtomaterialsupplyduringpandemicSourceFactSetFullyeartargetunchangedTheCompanyremainsresoluteonitsfullyearShareholdingStructuretargetstoreach20YoYgrowthonrevenueNPattributabletoPolyDevelopment723shareholderandtheexpansiononannualizedcontractvalueofnewprojectFreefloat277TargetcompletiononrevenuegrowthespeciallyonVASsegmentremainsSourceHKExamarketconcernwhileweareconfidentaboutitastheCompanysparentcoPolyDevhasatendencytohavemoreprojectlaunchesandSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativehousingdeliveryin2HwhichwillboosttherevenueofVAStonon-owners1-mth0372PolyDevislikelytodeliver180kunitsin2H23vs114kunitin1H233-mth-100-20accordingtothemgmt6-mth-256-151ARremainsaconcernTheCompanysaccountsreceivablewentup31SourceFactSetin1H23fromFY22mainlydrivenbyfastgrowth31YoYinrevenue12-mthPricePerformancefrompublicservicebusinesswhichnaturallyhaslongercashcollectionperiod1-3monthsThebusinesscontributed25ofrevenueinbasicPMandislikelytocontributemoreaspublicserviceisoneofthestrategicfocusesWhiletheARincreasedrivenbyrevenuestructureisshiftingtowardsToGbusinesswhichisapuzzleatindustrylevelasCityServiceisoneoftheGFAgrowthpointssupportedbypolicyMaintainBUYwithTPtrimmed2toHK5731WeliketheCompanyasitsdecentgrowthisbackedbystrongparentcoSOEwhichisgainingSourceFactSetmoremarketshareanditsincomparableadvantageonwinninggovernmentprojectsMaintainBUYTheTPadjustmentisreflectinghighermarginbutlowerrevenuegrowthdrivenbytheCompanysnewstrategyThenewTPimplies20x2023EPEandthecurrentvaluationisattractiveat14x2023EPERisksmorepropertydefaultsmaycausefluctuationinthesectorEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1078313687165261990823739YoYgrowth342269207205192NetprofitRMBmn845711129137941622318956EPSReportedRMB153201249293343YoYgrowth256316239176168ConsensusEPSRMBnana250306370PEx285206138117100PBx3630222017Yield0712182125ROE131154169175179SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Aug2023Figure11H23resultssummaryPolyServicesResultsSummaryRMBmn1H221H23YoY1H20221H2023ERevenue64497141114743-Propertymanagementservices39554818224746-VAStononowners10921051-45041-CommunityVAS14021272-94636Grossprofit13051512165148Netprofit628764225655EPSRMB114138225655GPMargin20221209pptNetMargin9710709pptManagedGFAmnsqm5231650524ContractedGFAmnsqm7316842415SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue165261990823739170702113825825-318-582-808GrossProfit314037464425320439394761-198-489-706Operatingprofit187922102583191623012720-191-394-506Netprofit137916221896140616891997-191-394-506EPSRMB252934253136-191-394-506GrossMargin19018818618818618402ppt02ppt02pptOperatingMargin11411110911210910501ppt02ppt03pptNetMargin83818082807701ppt02ppt03pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure3RevenuecontributionofPublicServiceBusinessRevenuemix2020202120221H221H23-PMservices6262626167-VAStononowners1717161715-CommunityVAS2221222218Revenuemix-PMservicesResidential7063606159Commercialandofficebuildings1415151516Publicandotherproperties1622242425SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue80371078313687165261990823739Costofgoodssold6538876811113133861616219314Grossprofit149920152574314037464425Operatingexpenses78710171215144117162023SGAexpense78510151213143817122018Others222345Operatingprofit91811841543187922102583Otherincome207187184180180180Pre-taxprofit93511621513188022102583Incometax239292380472555649Aftertaxprofit6968711133140816551934Minorityinterest232520283339Netprofit6748461113137916221896Grossdividends238169278345406474BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets8899999112133134881510116978Cashequivalents74487691895695031008110685Accountreceivables88814252263306340885350Inventories515140495970Prepayment512825873873873873Non-currentassets54611479779469761006PPE162200219177182187Deferredincometax132039393939Intangibles136125115122142162Othernon-currentassets234802604609614619Totalassets94441113813110144341607717985Currentliabilities313041365185550759016347Accountpayables3978041575189722902737Taxpayable92135154154154154Leaseliabilities2113638383838Contractliabilities118213811429142914291429Accruedexpenses124717811989198919891989Non-currentliabilities6811380808080Obligationsunderfinanceleases277969696969Othernon-currentliabilities413411111111Totalliabilities319742495265558759806427Sharecapital553553553553553553Otherreserves5618623271378112932810750Totalshareholdersequity6171678676918665988211303Minorityinterest76103154182215254Totalequityandliabilities94441113813110144341607717985PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation93511621513188022102583Depreciationamortization96311371202020Taxpaid204262382472555649Changeinworkingcapital1453176486642826Netcashfromoperations5491449147493610291123InvestingCapitalexpenditure546674454545Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments1194000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term000000investmentsOthers11479224000Netcashfrominvesting6085898454545FinancingDividendpaid202240172345406474Netborrowings000000Proceedsfromshareissues622049000Others15410218000Netcashfromfinancing302340138345406474NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear6509744876918956950310081Exchangedifference29927000Cashattheendoftheyear74487691895695031008110685GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue347342269207205192Grossprofit238344278220193181Operatingprofit322289303218176169Netprofit373256316239176168PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin187187188190188186Operatingmargin114110113114111109ReturnonequityROE120131154169175179GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox282423242627Receivableturnoverdays403482604677750823Inventoryturnoverdays282113131313Payableturnoverdays222335517517517517VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE498285206138117100PB563630222017Divyield070712182125EV136949145793168011183502201782222428EVSales171412111009SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5