报告摘要
　　我们将银河娱乐（“银娱”）的投资评级由“中性”上调至“买入”，并将目标价由55.00港元上调至62.00港元。我们的目标价基于15.4倍2024年EV/经调整EBITDA，较DCF估值法得出的每股估值79.77港元折让22.3%。我们预测2023-2025年经调整物业EBITDA分别为96.93亿港元、171.78亿港元及191.27亿港元。我们上调了收入与EBITDA预测，因为我们认为银娱将解决其人手短缺问题，加上澳门银河莱佛士酒店的开幕，银娱2023年的访问量和收入增长将更加强劲。
　　我们预计银娱的劳动力短缺问题在2023年第二季度将有所缓解，从而提高物业利用率，使收入和EBITDA增长好于预期。我们认为，到2023年第二季度，银娱将能增加其外地员工，足以满足新的需求。如人手足够，银娱将能充分利用其物业，包括有望在今年4月份开幕的澳门银河莱佛士酒店，推动银娱的访问量激增，进而令银娱2023年第二季度末与第三季度的收入和经调整EBITDA高于预期。
　　催化剂：增加人手配备能满足不断增长的需求，叠加澳门银河莱佛士酒店于4月开业，导致更高物业利用率以及2023年第三季度收入超预期。
　　风险：博彩收入增长可能不稳定或低于预期。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus23March2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变GalaxyExpectPropertyUtilizationto00027HKHK6200BuyYEntertainmentIncreasein2Q2023Buy预计2023年第二季度物业利用率将提银河娱乐00027HKHK6200买入是高买入证AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告券后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版研报究究HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance报31000研14000告29000券12000EquityResearchReport2700025000证10000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1959143173106865623恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE663999138307442839425国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4009131113523940034437800科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatMar21Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of5MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsGalaxyEntertainment00027HKExpectPropertyUtilizationtoIncreasein2Q2023BuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK6200AnalystNoahHudsonReportDate2023-03-22SummaryWeupgradeGalaxyEntertainmentGroupsGEGinvestmentratingfromNeutraltoBuyandincreasethetargetpricefromHK5500toHK6200Ourtargetpriceisbasedon154x2024EVadjustedEBITDAandisa223discounttoourDCFderivedNAVofHK7977Weforecast2023-2025adjustedpropertyEBITDAofHK9693bnHK17178bnandHK19127bnrespectivelyWeincreasedrevenueandEBITDAforecastsexpectingstrongervisitationandrevenuegrowthin2023asGEGresolvesitsstaffingshortageproblemandopensitsRafflesatGalaxyMacauhotelWeexpectthatin2Q2023GEGslaborshortagewilleaseresultinginhigherpropertyutilizationandbetter-than-expectedrevenueandEBITDAgrowthWethinkthatduring2Q2023GEGwillbeabletoincreaseitsnon-residentstaffingtoadequatelymeetnewdemandWithadequatestaffingGEGwillbeabletomorefullyutilizeitspropertiesincludingthenewRafflesatGalaxyMacauhotelwhichcouldopenasearlyasthisAprilThiscoulddriveasurgeinvisitationtoGalaxywhichcouldresultinhigher-than-expectedrevenueandadjustedEBITDAforGEGinlate2Q2023and3Q2023CatalystsStaffinglevelincreasestoadequatelymeetgrowingdemandcombinedwithopeningofRaffleshotelinAprilleadstohigherpropertyutilizationandhigher-than-expectedrevenuein3Q2023RisksGamingrevenuegrowthcouldbeerraticorslowerthanexpectedChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of5MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告TableFocus银河娱乐00027HK预计2023年第二季度物业利用率将提高买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK6200分析员NoahHudson报告日期2023-03-22报告摘要我们将银河娱乐银娱的投资评级由中性上调至买入并将目标价由5500港元上调至6200港元我们的目标价基于154倍2024年EV经调整EBITDA较DCF估值法得出的每股估值7977港元折让223我们预测2023-2025年经调整物业EBITDA分别为9693亿港元17178亿港元及19127亿港元我们上调了收入与EBITDA预测因为我们认为银娱将解决其人手短缺问题加上澳门银河莱佛士酒店的开幕银娱2023年的访问量和收入增长将更加强劲我们预计银娱的劳动力短缺问题在2023年第二季度将有所缓解从而提高物业利用率使收入和EBITDA增长好于预期我们认为到2023年第二季度银娱将能增加其外地员工足以满足新的需求如人手足够银娱将能充分利用其物业包括有望在今年4月份开幕的澳门银河莱佛士酒店推动银娱的访问量激增进而令银娱2023年第二季度末与第三季度的收入和经调整EBITDA高于预期催化剂增加人手配备能满足不断增长的需求叠加澳门银河莱佛士酒店于4月开业导致更高物业利用率以及2023年第三季度收入超预期风险博彩收入增长可能不稳定或低于预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of5MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of5MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKSENSETIME-W00020HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofCHINAOVERSEASLANDINVESTMENT00688HKLENOVO00992HKCHINATELECOM-HSHARES00728HKCHINAUNICOM00762HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKCHINAMERCHANTSBANK-HSHARES03968HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKAGRICULTURALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01288HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-loo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