上调目标价至5.10港元及维持“买入”的投资评级。我们预测公司2023-2025年股东净利润分别为人民币9.28亿元/ 11.33亿元/ 13.22亿元。考虑到公司的渠道升级计划以及对2023年销售复苏的积极展望，我们上调目标价至5.10港元并维持“买入”评级，对应2023-2025年市盈率分别为10.0倍/ 8.2倍/ 7.0倍。
　　我们预计公司童装业务将继续保持高增长。公司2022年业绩符合我们的预期。361度童装和电商业务收入分别同比增长30.3%和37.3%。我们预计未来童装业务收入将维持相对较高增速。公司预计2023年主品牌和童装门店规模分别为5,400-5,600家和2,200-2,400家。受益于产品竞争力和品牌形象提升，我们预计公司将增加一二线城市门店数量。
　　我们预计2023年以来的销售复苏势头将持续。截至3月中旬，361度主品牌、童装和电商零售流水同比增长分别超10%、20%和30%。零售折扣率恢复至7.0-7.2折，相当于疫情前90%水平。公司有信心在2023年实现收入高双位数的同比增长。2023年是公司成立二十周年，也是亚运会年。我们预计，公司作为亚运会官方合作伙伴，将借势提高市场份额及其品牌影响力。
　　催化剂：1）重启派息计划；2）适时启动DTC转型战略；3）港股通带来流动性。
　　风险：1）中国体育鞋服市场增速放缓；2）原材料涨价；3）线下客流低于预期。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitle汤瀚森CompanyReport361DegreesInternational01361HKHansenTang究8675523976884EquityResearch公司报告361度01361HKhansentanggtjascomhk17March2023CTableShannelummaryOptimizationtoSupportSalesGrowthin2023渠道优化助力2023年销售增长RaiseTPtoHK510andmaintaininvestmentratingofBuyWeforecast公shareholdersprofitforCompanysin2023-2025tobeRMB928millionRatingTableRankBuy司RMB1133millionRMB1322millionConsideringtheCompanysplanstoMaintainedupgradechannelmixandpositiveoutlookonsalesrecoveryin2023weraise报ourTPtoHK510andmaintainBuyinvestmentratingwhichrepresents评级买入维持告100x82xand70x2023-2025PERWeexpecttheCompanys361KidsbusinesstomaintainstronggrowthTablePrice目标价CompanyReportCompany6-18mTPHK510TheCompanys2022resultswereinlinewithourexpectationRevenuefromHK470361Kidsande-commercebusinessincreasedYoYby303and373respectivelyWeexpectrevenuefrom361KidstomaintainrelativelyhighShareprice股价HK3850growthrateinthefutureTheCompanyexpectstohave2200-2400361Kidsstoresand5400-5600361corebrandstoresin2023WeexpecttheCompanytoincreasestoresintier-1andtier-2citiesbenefitingfromproductStockperformance股价表现competitivenessandbrandimageenhancementTableQuotePicWeexpectthesalesrecoveryseensofarin2023tocontinueAsof400ofreturnmid-Marchretailsalesof361corebrand361Kidsande-commercebusiness300grewYoYby1020and30respectivelyRetaildiscountratehasbeen200证restoredto28-30equivalentto90ofthepre-pandemiclevelThe100券告Companyisconfidentaboutachievinghigh-teenspercentageYoYsalesgrowth00in20232023willbethe20thanniversaryoftheCompanyandtheyearofthe100研报AsianGamesWeexpectthatastheofficialpartneroftheAsianGamesthe200究究Companywilltakeadvantageoftheopportunitytoincreaseitsmarketsharewith300increasingbrandinfluence报400研Catalysts1Restartofdividendplan2launchofDTCtransformation3Mar-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Jan-23Mar-23告券IncreaseinliquiditythroughHangSengStockConnectHSIIndex361DegreesEquityResearchReportRisks1SlowdowninChinassportswearindustrygrowth2increaseinraw证materialprices3weaker-than-expectedofflineconsumertraffic上调目标价至510港元及维持买入的投资评级我们预测公司2023-2025年股东净利润ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YTab分别为人民币928亿元1133亿元1322亿元考虑到公司的渠道升级计划以及对2023年股价变动1个月3个月1年rleI销售复苏的积极展望我们上调目标价至510港元并维持买入评级对应2023-2025年Abs46170181绝对变动纺nfo1市盈率分别为100倍82倍70倍ReltoHSIndex119183288我们预计公司童装业务将继续保持高增长公司2022年业绩符合我们的预期361度童装和相对恒指变动织电商业务收入分别同比增长303和373我们预计未来童装业务收入将维持相对较高增AvgSharepriceHK373638服平均股价港元速公司预计2023年主品牌和童装门店规模分别为5400-5600家和2200-2400家受益SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational装于产品竞争力和品牌形象提升我们预计公司将增加一二线城市门店数量行我们预计2023年以来的销售复苏势头将持续截至3月中旬361度主品牌童装和电商零业售流水同比增长分别超1020和30零售折扣率恢复至70-72折相当于疫情前90水平公司有信心在2023年实现收入高双位数的同比增长2023年是公司成立二十周年也TextilesApparelTextilesSectoApparel是亚运会年我们预计公司作为亚运会官方合作伙伴将借势提高市场份额及其品牌影响力催化剂1重启派息计划2适时启动DTC转型战略3港股通带来流动性风险1中国体育鞋服市场增速放缓2原材料涨价3线下客流低于预期TabYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEProfitleIn年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBfo22021A59336020291448108413808000000882022A696174703612419445550800000099中2023F8238928044924476492707017953112163外2024F964011330548220625310060218651262025F112411322063916653575406025675135运度TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m20622Majorshareholder大股东DingsFamily653输MarketcapHKm市值HKm79395Freefloat自由流通比率3473monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00010956FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCash52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK44703040FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元54SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational361DegreesInternational01361HK36101361InternationalDegreesSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeader361DegreesInternational01361HKWeraiseTPtoHK510andmaintaininvestmentratingofBuyConsidering361DegreesInternationalstheCompanyplanstoupgradechannelmixandthepositiveoutlookonsalesrecoveryweforecastshareholders1raMtprofithgini202R3-202e4ltobbeaTRMB928millionRMB1133millionOurpreviousforecastwasRMB860millionRMB992millionandintroduceforecastofRMB1322millionin2024WeraiseourTPtoHK510andmaintainBuyinvestmentratingwhichrepresents98x81xand69x2023-2025PERWeexpecttheCompanys361KidsbusinesstomaintainstronggrowthIn2022theCompanysrevenueincreasedby173YoYtoRMB6961millioninlinewithourexpectationRevenuefrom361Kidsincreasedby303YoYtoRMB144217March2023millionaccountingfor207oftotalrevenueRevenuefrome-commercebusinessincreasedby373YoYtoRMB1685millionaccountingfor242oftotalrevenueWeexpectrevenuefrom361Kidstomaintainhighergrowththan361CorebrandbenefitingfromtheCompanysuniquecompetitiveadvantagesThegrossprofitmarginoftheCompanydecreasedby12pptto405mainlyduetotheincreaseinfreightcostandcostofproductionbyshiftingmoreorderstoOEMsduringthepandemicOperatingprofitslightlydecreasedby08YoYtoRMB1074millionmainlyduetoaone-offprovisionforimpairmentlossarisingfromtradereceivablesofRMB166millionTheCompanydeclarednodividendinordertoretaincashliquiditytocapturepotentialMAtargetsweexpectthattheCompanywillconsiderinterimdividendin2023ToseizeopportunitiestoimproveproductsandchannelsTheCompanyactivelyexpandedstorenumbersandintegratedonlineandofflinechannelsamidheadwindsduringtheCovidpandemicdemonstratingstrong2raoperationalMthgiresilienceRelandbaTimprovingefficiencyThenumberofpointsofsalesof361corebrandand361KidsinmainlandChinaincreasedby210and392to5480and2288comparedto2021respectivelyTheCompanyexpectstohave2200-2400361Kidsstoresand5400-5600361corebrandstoresin2023indicatingthattherewillbenetstoreopeningforboth361KidsandcorebrandstoresTheCompanyencouragesitsdistributorsandauthorizedretailerstocontinuetoopennewstoresinshoppingmallsanddepartmentstorestoexpandstoreareaandupgradestoreimageinthefuturesoastooptimizedistributionchannelmixWeexpecttheCompanytoincreasestoresintier-1andtier-2citiesbenefitingfromenhancementofhigh-endproductsandbrandimageWebelievethatexpectedincreaseintheCompanysaveragestorespacewilldrivefurtherimprovementsinoperationalefficiencyandprofitability01361HKWeexpectsalesrecoveryseensofarin2023tocontinueAsatmid-Marretailsalesof361corebrand361Kidsand度e-commercebusinessgrewYoYby1020and30respectivelyRetaildiscountratehasbeenrestoredto28-30equivalentto90ofthepre-pandemiclevelThemanagementexpectsdiscountratetorecoverfurthertothe25-28levelinthesecondquarterastheeconomycontinuestorecoverTheCompanyisconfidentaboutachievinghigh-teenspercentageYoYsalesgrowthin20232023willbethe20thanniversaryoftheCompanyandtheyearoftheAsianGamesWeexpectthatastheofficialpartneroftheAsianGamestheCompanywilltakeadvantageoftheopportunitytoincreaseitsmarketsharewithincreasingbrandinfluenceWebelievethattheCompanysown-brandeventssuchas3TrackandLightUptobeorganizednationwidewillcontinuetoempowercoreproductcategoriessuchasrunningandbasketballandenhancethebrandinfluence361DegreesInternational361Catalysts1higher-than-expectedinventoryreductionrate3launchofDTCtransformationatafavorabletimeRisks1SlowdowninChinassportswearindustrygrowth2increaseinrawmaterialprices3weak-than-expectedofflineconsumertrafficFigure-1361Degrees-PEratioBlended12MonthsFigure-2361Degrees-PBratioBlended12Months18012160101401SD08x120081SD96x1000680Average71xAverage06x600440-1SD47x02-1SD04x20Report0000Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23PERAverage1SD-1SDPBRAverage1SD-1SDCompanySourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeader361DegreesInternational01361HKTable-1KeyAssumptionsandforecasts1raMthgiRelbaTOLDNEWCHANGERMBmillion2023F2024F2025F2023F2024F2025F2023F2024F2025FRevenue68757920na82389640112414067naGrossprofit28513297na3363394546062047naOperatingprofit12331455na1366170319806122naShareholdersprofit729860na9281133132279143naBasicEPSRMB03530416na04490548063979143na17March2023Grossmargin415416na40840941008ppt08pptnaAPofturnover101101na11010510509ppt03pptnaSGAofturnover282276na27826726702ppt06pptnaOperatingmargin179184na16617717618ppt07pptnaEffectivetaxrate280290na26028028030ppt10pptnaNetmargin106109na11311811804ppt08pptnaSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-2Peersvaluationcomparison2raMthgiRelbaTMarketEVGrossOperatingStockCompanyCapPExPBxROEDYEBITDAxMarginMarginCodeLastpriceHKDmn22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23F23F23F23F23FSportswear-Domestic361DegreesIntl01361HKHKD385796092797056090707061055310417158Anta02020HKHKD10220277332332257210175715950na25517144617218Lining02331HKHKD5770152099319238193174544639na20513139517216XtepIntl01368HKHKD81121384198157125107222019181333987416120ChinaDongxiang03818HKHKD0331913na93nana0202nana0000nana111Topsports06110HKHKD68742602176140121115333027na228526043611201361HKSimpleAverage223161144125322728121542988481156度WeightedAverage3052341911655950431522920131560203Sportswear-InternationalNikeNKEUSUSD1206514684438430625422112611910810241112225455136AdidasADSGREUR14270214791427na338202515245455608293453109Asics7936JPJPY3420038267315259222193373532281391311952077PumaPUMGYEUR521265735221214162136322926231441681454710UnderArmourUAAUSUSD8582810318315713811623191715168007345352LululemonLULUUSUSD2974029788330026322519511187675137700157564219SimpleAverage305240223177635749441970815848391361DegreesInternational361WeightedAverage367293254211110102918434310214471129ApparelChinaLilang01234HKHKD4154970956358na111010na160109na469204GiordanoIntl00709HKHKD2233525131117978315nanana11976106550112Bosideng03998HKHKD4344732017414812677312825251964994600169JNBY03306HKHKD984510573857160262523212888641647168CosmoLady02298HKHKD04294538212462na040404na34nana47023EEKAFASHION03709HKHKD10247209827060na141211na1795730760111SimpleAverage1711078373171715231598080547135WeightedAverage16013411376282623251945990589166SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteThefinancialyear-enddateofChinaDongxiang3818HKTopsports6110HKNikeNKEUSLululemonLULUUSBosideng3998HKandJNBY3306HKarenot31DecemberForeasiercomparisonwithpeers22AmeansFY23Aand23FmeansFY24FandsoonfortheaforementionedcompaniesReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeader361DegreesInternational01361HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraSheetMthgiRelbaTYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FAsat31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue593369618238964011241PropertyPlantandEquipment823773782801832CostofSales34614140487556946636Right-of-useAssets105102999694GrossProfit24722821336339454606Others227277298321345TotalNon-currentAssets11551152117912181272OtherRevenue354415301341387OtherNetIncomeLoss4518791011Inventories891118213241523175117March2023SellingandDistributionExpenses11401433160617932091TradeDebtors25272954354042315046AdministrativeExpenses558541682781911BillsReceivable7370148174202OperatingProfit10831074136617031980OtherReceivables12011193134815231721PledgedBankDeposits5224242424RepurchaseofSeniorNotes10000DepositswithBanks20002000200020002000NetFinanceIncomecosts37991010CashCashEquivalents33393860403541424239ProfitBeforeTax10451065135716931969TotalCurrentAssets1008311284124191361714984IncomeTax303248353474551ProfitAfterTax742817100412191418TotalAssets1123812436135981483516256Non-controllingInterest14170778696ShareholdersProfitLoss60274792811331322TradeandOtherPayables209223272676307735392raMthgiRelbaTBasicEPS02910361044905480639BankLoans208192208224242CurrentTaxation368386405426447OtherCurrentLiabilities00000TotalCurrentLiabilities26682906328937284228TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FDeferredTaxLiabilities1412192123ProfitBeforeTaxation10451065135716931969Interest-bearingBorrowings00000DA6965737782OtherNon-currentLiabilities1100100100100OtherAdjustments28156454443TotalNon-currentLiabilities14113119121124ChangesinWorkingCapital471620612689809IncomeTaxPaidTotalLiabilities2682301834083848435201361HK299285342469546CashfromOperatingActivities372380431568654度ShareCapital182182182182182CapitalExpenditure92885100117Reserves69347761845791689989PledgedBankDeposits1028000TotalShareholdersEquity711779448639935010171DepositswithBanks00000MinorityInterest14391474155116371733Others107485616160TotalEquity85569418101901098711904CashfromInvestingActivities107585243957TableFinancialRatioNetBorrowings284151718FinancialRatiosInterestPaid369910102021A2022A2023F2024F2025F361DegreesInternational361DividendsPaid00232422500GrossMargin417405408409410Others152115000OperatingMargin183154166177176CashfromFinancingActivities155859226415493NetMargin101107113118118ROE8899112126135NetChangesinCash111525182114104ROA5363718085CashatBegofYear34513339386040354142ROCE103109128148160ForeignExchangeEffect13777PayoutRatio0000400400400CashatEndofYear33393860403541424239InventoryDays872914938913901ACReceivableDays14941474148715321567SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalACPayableDays12181213122612391254NetGearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashCurrentRatiox3839383735Interestcoveragex211137209262306ReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionFinancialTableFinancialRatioRatioSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeader361DegreesInternational01361HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to517March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTOFINTERESTSS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthis01361HKResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport度withinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecurities361DegreesInternational361HongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5