研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报内地虽有走强但买入价值不大戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z0015428本周单体波动不大丙烯小幅走弱下游品种价格多数走弱甲醇港口下行基差月间周度产业链价格总览走弱西北走强美金小幅小跌进口倒挂期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约26092616-72672-631-5价差34211362805合约25752595-202666-915-9价差3039-951-2109合约25452556-112615-709-1价差-64-60-4-57-7国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线2320230020224080鲁南260026000255050北线23352300352220115河北2565256502450115关中24202430-10236060山西24552475-20237085河南24952530-352590-95华南26252660-352700-75鲁北25652595-30252540太仓26052685-802710-105国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国318320-2338-20CFR印度3123120339-27CFR东南亚36753715-4392-245FOB鹿特丹34725346251338925CFR日韩369370-13775-85FOB美湾美分加仑987510775-9109-1025下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金9609600860100MEG41034272-1694122-19丙烯美金935940-5980-45EO720070002006500700丁二烯美金1200120001100100醋酸30253075-504122-1097PE83008300083000甲醛11701210-40112050PP7900790008100-200二甲醚37603850-904020-26001PVCNANANANANAMTBE740072501506950450提货量太仓走货量周均值华东下游库存不含山东600035000500030000250004000200003000150002000100001000500000201820192020202120222023202120222023太仓走货量周低位太仓走货量周高位沿海可流通库存500070004560004040005000353030004000253000200020200015100010001000520182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202302区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格35004500400030003500300025002500200020001500100015002022-10-242022-11-242022-12-242023-01-242023-02-24太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000320202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16004-250-200利润情况内蒙古煤制利润山东煤制成本5100480090046007004300700410050038003600200300310033001002600-3002800-10021002300-3001600-8001800-5002021-09-272021-10-272021-11-272021-12-272022-01-272022-02-272022-03-272022-04-272022-05-272022-06-272022-07-272022-08-272022-09-272022-10-272022-11-272022-12-272023-01-272023-02-272021-09-272021-10-272021-11-272021-12-272022-01-272022-02-272022-03-272022-04-272022-05-272022-06-272022-07-272022-08-272022-09-272022-10-272022-11-272022-12-272023-01-272023-02-27利润右轴北线市场价内蒙古煤制成本利润右轴山东中部市场价山东煤制成本焦炉气制利润西南天然气制利润4800100043007004300800380050038006003300300330040010028002800200-1002300-300230001800-5001800-2002021-10-272021-11-272021-12-272022-01-272022-02-272022-03-272022-04-272022-05-272022-06-272022-10-272022-11-272022-12-272023-01-272023-02-272022-07-272022-08-272022-09-272021-09-27052021-11-272022-01-272022-02-272022-03-272022-06-272022-07-272022-08-272022-09-272022-10-272023-01-272023-02-272021-09-272021-10-272021-12-272022-04-272022-05-272022-11-272022-12-27利润右轴川渝市场价西南天然气制成本利润右轴河北市场价河北焦炉气制成本开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测752770262565246023552250212019062020202120222023202311202321202331202341202351外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR40060050035040030030020025010002022-11-152022-11-222022-11-292022-12-062022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-032023-01-102023-01-172023-01-242023-01-312023-02-072023-02-142023-02-212023-02-282023-03-07鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020072019202020212022202320192020202120222023MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14中原乙烯预计310号重启宁波富德本12周重启内地几套CTO有检修计划10不过对供需影响不大暂时仍未听说8鲁西南京有重启计划642020231120232120233120234120235120236108沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总MTO利润宁波富德综合利润浙江兴兴MTO利润1500200010001500500100050000-500-500-1000-1000-1500-1500-2000-2000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023大唐多伦MTP利润联泓MTO综合利润400050003000400020003000100002000-10001000-20000-3000-4000-100009201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率55656050555045整体传统下游复苏表现不错但454040是综合开工率提升速度近期放缓353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛开工率氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率40902535802030702515206015105010554003000102018201920202021202220232020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸醋酸价格江苏醋酸成本醋酸利润100003400700032006000800030005000280060002600400024004000300022002000200020001800100001600020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸库存结构醋酸库存醋酸出口量252516000014000020201200001515100000101080000560000540000002000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月山东华东华北西北华中其他20192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸乙酯开工率醋酸乙烯开工率808070706050604030502040100300112019202020212022202320192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-12-312022-01-312022-03-312022-04-302022-0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