我们上调目标价至8.00港元并维持“买入”的投资评级。我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币0.631/ 0.720/ 0.814元。由于运营商定位的质变，我们上调目标价并维持“买入”的投资评级。
　　我们预计公司的传统主业将稳定增长并保持强劲的盈利能力。中国联通2022财年业绩符合预期。服务收入同比上升7.8%，而股东净利同比上升16.5%。同时，公司计划将2022全年每股派息同比提升26.9%至人民币0.274元。我们预计移动服务和固网宽带业务都将稳定增长，而资本支出的增速将低于服务收入的增速。
　　我们预计产业互联网业务发展将会超过市场预期。由于政务云的强劲需求、运营商在数据安全和云网融合方面的优势、以及对算力网络的大规模投入，我们预计2023年联通云仍将实现高速增长。数据要素在数字中国建设中拥有极为重要的位置，而运营商拥有大量数据资产，我们认为未来运营商会在战略层面上推动数据要素相关业务的发展，其发展进度可能会超市场预期。同时，近两年来中国联通通过合营、并购、战投不断拓展其业务边界，我们认为除了财务上的考虑之外，外延性投资也会帮助公司触达更多的行业数据，从而帮助其数据相关业务的发展。因此，我们认为公司未来在数据要素方面的发展将会超出市场预期。
　　催化剂：派息率的上升，数据要素相关业务的推进。
　　风险提示：产业互联网业务增速慢于预期；投入与效益不匹配。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus10March2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变ResultsinLineWithExpectationsChinaUnicom00762HKOutstandingDigitalizationBusinessHK800Buy--YBuy中国联通00762HK业绩符合预期数字化业务亮眼买入HK800买入--是SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapFood证AcceleratedTurnoverGrowthBeverage--Outperform--N告RepresentsAttractiveBuyingSector券OpportunityOutperform研报行业报告双周报动销加速布局良机食品饮料行业--跑赢大市--否跑赢大市究究报研AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告券EquityResearchReport后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000200011000Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1992574-063102931721051恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE664963-11561543231135国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of7MorningResearchFocusHSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE393094-1463630690034895200科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatMar08PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of7MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsChinaUnicom00762HKResultsinLineWithExpectationsOutstandingDigitalizationBusinessBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK800AnalystGinYuReportDate2023-03-09SummaryWeupgradetheTPtoHK800andmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0631RMB0720RMB0814respectivelyDuetoqualitativechangesinoperatorpositioningweupgradetheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyWeexpecttheCompanystraditionalmainbusinesstomaintainstablegrowthandstrongprofitabilityChinaUnicomsFY22resultswereinlinewithexpectationsServicerevenueincreasedby78yoywhileshareholdersnetprofitwasupby165yoyMeanwhiletheCompanyproposedtoincreasethewholeyeardividendpershareof2022by269yoytoRMB0274Weexpectbothmobileserviceandfixed-linebroadbandbusinesstoincreasesteadilywhilegrowthofcapitalexpendituretobelowerthangrowthofservicerevenueWeexpectthedevelopmentofindustryinternetbusinesstoexceedmarketexpectationsDuetothestrongneedsfromgovernmentcloudadvantagesofoperatorsindatasecurityandcloudnetworkintegrationaswellasthelargescaleinvestmentsincomputingpowernetworkweexpecttheUnicomcloudtostillachieverapidgrowthin2023DatafactorsplayanextremelyimportantroleintheconstructionofdigitalChinawhileoperatorshavealargenumberofdataassetswebelievethatinthefutureoperatorswillpromotethedevelopmentofbusinessesrelatedtodataatthestrategiclevelandthedevelopmentprogressmayexceedmarketexpectationsMeanwhileinthepasttwoyearsChinaUnicomhasbeenexpandingitsbusinessboundariesthroughjointventuresMAsandstrategicinvestmentswebelievethatinadditiontofinancialconsiderationstheextensiveinvestmentwillalsohelptheCompanytoaccessmoreindustrydatathushelpingthedevelopmentofitsdata-relatedbusinessAsaresultwebelievetheCompanysfuturegrowthindatafactorswillexceedmarketexpectationsCatalystIncreaseindividendpayoutratiopromotionofbusinessdata-relatedbusinessRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofindustryinternetbusinessmismatchbetweeninvestmentsandbenefitsSectorReportFoodBeverageSectorBi-WeeklyWrapAcceleratedTurnoverGrowthRepresentsAttractiveBuyingOpportunityOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAndyChenReportDate2023-03-09SummaryRelativelyconservativeeconomictargetsreinforcemarketexpectationsthathouseholdconsumptionrecoverycouldbegradualduring2023andthatinflationismorelikelytopersistatmoderateratesForthefoodandbeveragesectorChinesebaijiuandbeersubcategoriesarethemainbeneficiariesofchannelrecoveryAccordingtoourchannelcheckwholesalepricesofChinesepremiumbaijiuproductsarestablewithhealthyinventorylevelsLookingforwardweexpectbusinessactivitiesandbanquetstothriveinthefollowingquartersThatsaidsub-premiumbaijiubrandsaremorelikelytooutperformthemarketsincedemandbottomedoutFortheChinesebaijiusegmentwerecommendKweichowMoutai600519SHWuliangye000858SZLuzhouLaojiao000568SZShedeSpirits600702SHKingsLuck603369SHJinhuiLiquor603919SHandYingjiaDistillery603198SHForthebeersegmentweexpectthatvolumecontributionfromhigh-endsaleswillcontinuetoexpandespeciallyinthepeakseasonof2023MarginalreliefoncostpressurewillsupportgrossprofitmarginofbreweriesTogetherwithSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of7MorningResearchFocusimprovingproductionandoperationalefficiencyweexpectsectorprofitgrowthtostaysolidin2023IntheshorttermweexpecttheinventoryturnoverofChinasmajorbreweriestoremainhealthyOurtoppickisChinaResourcesBeer00291HKwithinvestmentratingofBuyWealsorecommendYanjingBrewery000729SZForthenon-alcoholicbeveragesegmentwehaveBuyratingonChinaFoods00506HKNongfuSpring09633HKandVitasoy00345HKwillalsobebeneficiariesWemaintainOutperformratingfortheFoodBeveragesectorRisks1Weaker-than-expectedeconomicgrowthhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementofrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponents3foodsafetyproblemsChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告中国联通00762HK业绩符合预期数字化业务亮眼买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK800分析员余劲同报告日期2023-03-09报告摘要我们上调目标价至800港元并维持买入的投资评级我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币063107200814元由于运营商定位的质变我们上调目标价并维持买入的投资评级我们预计公司的传统主业将稳定增长并保持强劲的盈利能力中国联通2022财年业绩符合预期服务收入同比上升78而股东净利同比上升165同时公司计划将2022全年每股派息同比提升269至人民币0274元我们预计移动服务和固网宽带业务都将稳定增长而资本支出的增速将低于服务收入的增速我们预计产业互联网业务发展将会超过市场预期由于政务云的强劲需求运营商在数据安全和云网融合方面的优势以及对算力网络的大规模投入我们预计2023年联通云仍将实现高速增长数据要素在数字中国建设中拥有极为重要的位置而运营商拥有大量数据资产我们认为未来运营商会在战略层面上推动数据要素相关业务的发展其发展进度可能会超市场预期同时近两年来中国联通通过合营并购战投不断拓展其业务边界我们认为除了财务上的考虑之外外延性投资也会帮助公司触达更多的行业数据从而帮助其数据相关业务的发展因此我们认为公司未来在数据要素方面的发展将会超出市场预期催化剂派息率的上升数据要素相关业务的推进风险提示产业互联网业务增速慢于预期投入与效益不匹配行业报告食品饮料行业双周报动销加速布局良机跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员陈思超报告日期2023-03-09报告摘要相对保守的经济目标让市场更加相信2023年居民消费复苏乃循序渐进的并且通胀有望维持温和对食品饮料行业而言中国白酒和啤酒品类从渠道复苏中受益最大基于我们的渠道调研中国高档白酒产品的批价平稳库存良性展望未来我们预计商业活动和会议宴请将在未来若干季度趋于兴旺需求回升有望推动次高档白酒品牌跑赢市场对于白酒板块我们推荐贵州茅台600519SH五粮液000858SZ泸州老窖000568SZ舍得酒业600702SH今世缘Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of7MorningResearchFocus603369SH金徽酒603919SH迎驾贡酒603198SH对于啤酒板块我们预计高端化销售占比进一步扩大尤其在2023年的旺季期间成本压力的边际钝化将巩固啤酒厂商的毛利率加上生产及营运效率的优化我们预计2023年行业利润将录得坚实增长短期看国内主要啤酒公司的库存和动销情况相对积极我们的行业首选乃华润啤酒00291HK投资评级为买入我们还推荐燕京啤酒000729SZ非酒精饮料板块而言我们对中国食品00506HK的评级为买入此外农夫山泉09633HK和维他奶00345HK亦是受益标的我们维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市的评级风险1经济增长或居民收入增幅逊于预期2原材料或包装物价格变动超出预期3食品安全问题Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of7MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of7MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of7