报告摘要
　　鲍威尔在国会的听证，再度引发了市场对于美联储加码紧缩的担忧，市场也因此在调高对于终点利率的预测。与3个月前相比，终点利率开始越来越接近6%，这与去年底相比大约提升了70-80个基点。尽管加息的节奏仍然难以确定，但年内降息几乎成为泡影。
　　美国通胀仍然处于高位，并且显得粘性较高，已经成为了一个较为明确的中期现象。从这个角度而言，美联储希望核心PCE通胀率能够回到2%附近，越来越成为一个“遥远”的梦想。但与此同时，市场可能忽视的一个问题是：美国通胀会失控么？
　　在考察了实际通胀走势、通胀预期、供应链压力以及宏观波动率后，我们认为美国的通胀处于“受控”的状态，与此同时，市场情绪也并未出现慌乱。
　　因此，尽管鲍威尔给出了相对鹰派的表述，同时美国整体通胀出现了结构性抬升，但美联储并没有输掉与通胀的这场长期斗争。相反，市场给出的通胀预期仍然处于稳定，这对于美联储完成其货币政策目标而言十分重要。
　　所以，美国的整体通胀率和利率的抬升将逐步被市场适应并消化，整体海外宏观环境并未出现恶化的迹象，因此对于资产价格不会产生长期的负面冲击

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus9March2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningTypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MarketStrategyAccumulationOpportunityLiesWhereItIsLessCrowded08March2023宏观美国通胀失控了么2023年03月08日AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版证告券HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance研报3100014000究究2900012000报27000研告25000券10000EquityResearchReport2300021000证80001900060001700015000400013000110002000Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2005125-235117479721051恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE672718-268755543231135国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE398928-3233709570034788000科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatMar07Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of5MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsAccumulationOpportunityLiesWhereItIsLessCrowdedAnalystJakeWangReportDate2023-03-08SummaryWemodeledacompositeindexformeasuringthelevelofmarketcrowdingbycombiningindicatorsfrompricedeviationvolumeandturnovervolume-pricecorrelationandvolatilityThecompositecrowdingindexbasicallyfitsthehistoricalmovementsoftheHangSengIndexcorrelationbetweenthecompositecrowdingindexandtheHangSengIndexreaches071whichissignificantlystrongerthanthatofthefourindividualindicatorsThecompositecrowdingindexmaycontributetocapturingshort-termmarketdynamicsDeviationofthecompositecrowdingindexfromitshistoricalmeangivesindicationofshort-termmarkettimingAnupwardtrendinthecompositecrowdingindexby1standarddeviationSDabovethemeanwouldoftenstrikeasanearlywarningthatthemarketisgettingcrowdedIncontrastalowlevelofcrowdingat-1SDbelowthemeanwouldsignalaccumulationopportunitiesaspessimisticexpectationshavebeenbasicallypricedinTheHongKongstockmarketremainedmoderateoverallwithregardtothelevelofcrowdingAsforstyleindicesgrowthbeatsvalueandmid-andsmall-capbeatslarge-capstocksVerticallycrowdingforHongKongstyleindicesarebasicallyaroundmutuallevelswhencomparedwiththeirrespectivemeanvaluesHorizontallyhowevergrowthbeatsvalueasthecompositecrowdingindexforgrowthvalueis154221respectivelyMid-small-capstocksalsoprevailwithcrowdingindexof226comparingtothe257inlarge-capWebelievethatpessimisticexpectationsaroundthespringchillwerebasicallypricedininvestorsmayconsidertheoversoldreboundstrategyintheshortrun1TheHangSengIndexfelltoaround19000-20000whichwethinkmaybethelowerboundaryofareasonablevaluation2the10-yearUSTreasuryyieldreachedtheupperboundaryof40-43andtheRMB-USDexchangeratefelltonear70meaningthattheshort-termcontractionperiodfromoverseasliquiditymaybeoverTheoversoldreboundstrategyiseffectiveastherecentpullbackwasmainlycausedbyoverseasliquidityfluctuationsandgeopoliticaleventsandwebelievethatmostsectorsintheHongKongstockmarketwillreboundquicklyduetotheimprovingearningsexpectationsWearecurrentlybullishonsectorsthatarelesscrowdedandmoresensitivetopro-cyclicalcatalysts1Liquidity-sensitivesectorswithlowlevelsofcrowdingweexpectthattheliquidity-sensitivesectorssuchaspharmaceuticalssemiconductorsandhardwarewillreboundsignificantly2Sectorsthatarelesscrowdedandnearthebottomoftheirbusinesscyclesemiconductorshardwareandothersectorindiceshavelowvaluationcurrentlyandmaybeclosetothebottomofthebusinesscycle3SectorsthatarebothtradedatmoderatelevelsofcrowdingandmaybenefitfromtherecoveryofinternaldemandtherearesignsofrecoveryforthepropertysectorpolicysupportforChinasdomesticpropertymarketinthefutureisworththewaitWeremainoptimisticonrealestatebankingandmaterialssectorsRiskFactors1TheUSFederalReservemaytightenpolicymorethanmarketexpectation2uncertaintiesinSino-USrelationsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of5MorningResearchFocusTableFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告美国通胀失控了么宏观组周浩报告日期2023-03-08报告摘要鲍威尔在国会的听证再度引发了市场对于美联储加码紧缩的担忧市场也因此在调高对于终点利率的预测与3个月前相比终点利率开始越来越接近6这与去年底相比大约提升了70-80个基点尽管加息的节奏仍然难以确定但年内降息几乎成为泡影美国通胀仍然处于高位并且显得粘性较高已经成为了一个较为明确的中期现象从这个角度而言美联储希望核心PCE通胀率能够回到2附近越来越成为一个遥远的梦想但与此同时市场可能忽视的一个问题是美国通胀会失控么在考察了实际通胀走势通胀预期供应链压力以及宏观波动率后我们认为美国的通胀处于受控的状态与此同时市场情绪也并未出现慌乱因此尽管鲍威尔给出了相对鹰派的表述同时美国整体通胀出现了结构性抬升但美联储并没有输掉与通胀的这场长期斗争相反市场给出的通胀预期仍然处于稳定这对于美联储完成其货币政策目标而言十分重要所以美国的整体通胀率和利率的抬升将逐步被市场适应并消化整体海外宏观环境并未出现恶化的迹象因此对于资产价格不会产生长期的负面冲击Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of5MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of5MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgrou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