研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportEnergyOperationsSectorPeterShao邵俊樨行业报告能源运营行业85225095464petershaogtjascomhk6March2023PowerTableMainInfoWeeklyDecarbonisationEnergySecurityRemaintheFocalPoint能源运营周报减碳与保供仍是关键行DecarbonisationandreliabilityremainthefocalpointofChinasenergy业policyconsiderationswhileabetterpricingmechanismforcoal-firedpowerRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformisindispensabletomeetingthesetwopillarsoftheenergytrilemmaPerMaintained报Chinas2023GovernmentWorkReportreleasedlastSundaytheChinese告governmentremainsdedicatedindeliveringongoingreductioninenergyintensity评级跑赢大市维持SectorReportmeanwhilestrengtheningtheexplorationandproductionofmajorenergyand2mineralresourcestoensureenergysecurityremainsoneofthekeytasksofthegovernmentTheworkreportimpliesthatdecarbonisationandenergysecurityPriceperformanceofselectedpowerremainthefocalpointofChinasenergypolicyconsiderationswhilepolicycompanies27Feb-3MarconcernsonaffordabilityhavenotbeenexacerbatedinourviewWhileweexpect10088Chinatocontinueresortingtoadministrativemeasurestoboostcoalproduction778075capacityandmanagecoalpriceswenowseeupsideinthepolicysupportforthe604545developmentofamoremarket-orientedcoal-firedpowerpricingmechanismwhich4040isnotonlyanindispensablepartofafundamentallytransformedpowersystembut162011alsokeytothelessdisruptivedeliveryofsuchtransformationThisisbecausea0500market-orientedpricingmechanismcanbetteridentifytheevolvingroleofcoal-fired-01-20powerasrequiredbyChinaspowersystemtransformationiefromadominant证-40sourceofpowersupplytoamajorregulatingandbackuppowersource-60告-62券-80Thepotentialreasonsbehindtheemergenceoflowtariffsduringrecent研报offshorewindauctionsAnumberofcasesregardinglowbiddingtariffsfor究究offshorewindprojectshaveemergedsince2022Morerecentlyon3Mar2023theShanghaigovernmentreleasedthebiddingresultsforthe800MWoffshoreResearchReport报研windprojectinHangzhouBayaccordingtoareportbyFengmangEnergy风芒能SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational告源公众号theexpertpaneloftheauctionrecommendedbidderswithabidding券EquitytariffbetweenRMB207-245MWhsignificantlylowerthanthebenchmarktariffset证atRMB4155MWhFromastaticpointofviewassumingsuchatariffrangePriceperformanceofselectedpoweraverageutilisationof3600hoursyearandconstructioncostbetweencompaniesYTDRMB9000-12000KWourA-shareutilitiesteamestimatesthattheIRRofan700offshorewindprojectcouldstillreachpositiveterritoryupto57Froma590600dynamicpointofviewhoweverthereturnprofilewouldlookmoreattractivesince500thereisupsideassociatedwith1highertariffsrealisedthroughgreenpower450Ttradingand2theongoingcostreductionforoffshorewindprojects400300aStockperformancelastweek27Feb-3MarExceptforXinyiEnergy00386HKanddiversifiedutilitiesieCLP00002HKandPAH00006HKallour200178b114能selectedthermalandrenewablesIPPsregainedtheirpricelossfromtheprior10043393632302915源lweekwithCPID02380HKbeingthemostelasticasusual88wow00运eInvestmentsuggestionWemaintainOutperformforthesectoronthegrowth营opportunitiesbroughtbyChinaspowersystemtransformationforboththermaland行renewablesIPPSAmongthermalIPPsundertransformationwerecommendL业CPID02380HKBuyTPHK490whichhasthemostambitiouslow-carbonSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationaletransformationplancomparedwithpeersamongrenewablesIPPswerecommendDTR01798HKBuyTPHK334asthecompanyison-tracktoEnergySectorOperationsfbreakthroughthegrowthconstraintsthathavelongweighedonvaluationtMajorrisksDelayinnewenergyprojectroll-outsoaringcoalpricesMhigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostslower-than-expectedpowerdemandaunfavourablechangesinregulationsandpoliciesforIPPsandextremeweatherconditionsrginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2SeTel852250927FLowBlockGrandGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesanytoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictiondistributiosuchwherejurisdictionanyorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanybyuseortodistributionforintendedordirectedatnotisResearchReportThiswherandrisksrelateditsandconsulobjectivesinvestmentthecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintyandforecastsderivedfromtheassguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforwardefforthasbestThoughensurebeentoaccuracythemadeofcontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsbymadeassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunangrJunanGuotaiofexecutivesprofessionalotheranddealerspersonswinororallyexpressedstrategiesinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnyservicesproprietarilyinvestmentbankinginvestmentincludingaJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiLimitedKongResearchReportdThisDISCLAIMER654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkSectorTableSectorRatingDefinitionTableSectorSubReportRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanyTabledisclosure2023UnderperformNeutralOutperformeSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuythetttheirownfinancialadvisersprioranytoinvestmentdecisionReportThereisnoofficerofficeranasservingindividualanemployednothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiReportnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiwithinprecedingthe12monthsGuotaiJunananditsgroupco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