2023年3月1日财政部副部长许宏才在国新办的新闻发布会表示，今年将合理安排专项债券规模，确保政府投资力度不减；积极的财政政策要加力提效，将在重点支持现有11个领域项目（交通基础设施、能源、农林水利、生态环保、社会事业、城乡冷链等物流基础设施、市政和产业园区基础设施、国家重大战略项目、保障性安居工程、新型基础设施、新能源项目）建设基础上，适量扩大资金投向领域和用作项目资本金范围，持续加力重点项目建设。
　　根据百年建筑网的统计，截至2023年2月21日，全国12,220个工程项目开复工率为86.1%，周环比升9.6个百分点，农历同比升5.7个百分点；劳务到位率83.9%，周环比升15.7个百分点，农历同比升2.8个百分点。从项目类型看，基建开复工率87.3%，同比升4.1个百分点，市政开复工率88.2%，同比升4.1个百分点；房建开复工率84.1%，同比提升3.1个百分点，边际改善明显。根据中国统计局的数据，2月建筑业商务活动指数为60.2%，比1月升3.8个百分点；建筑业新订单指数为62.1%，比1月升4.7个百分点，市场需求继续回暖。我们认为在政府积极扩大投资以稳定经济的强烈意愿下，叠加地方政府财政收入回暖可提供资金支持，全年基建投资增速将维持在7%-10%。
　　2月24日，中国人民银行、中国银保监会起草了《关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见（征求意见稿）》，提出十七条意见，以培育及发展住房租赁市场，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，将为房建项目的施工端和竣工端提供资金支持。此外，根据克而瑞的数据，2月房企销售改善超预期，央国企尤其明显。TOP50房企实现销售人民币3,213亿元，同比增长28.9%，较1月回升55.4个百分点。其中，民企销售增速较1月回升30.0个百分点，达到-17.9%。国企增速较1月大幅回升51.0个百分点，达到71.4%。央企增速较1月大幅回升132.6个百分点，达到128.2%。涉房建筑央企受惠于施工及竣工端投资加快，房地产开发业务收入及利润将大幅提升。相关企业今年的业绩或超预期。
　　我们重点推荐受益于房建施工及竣工端投资加快叠加房地产开发业务业绩预计将大幅增长、基建投资持续发力、一带一路沿线新机遇、国有企业改革和低估值等主题的公司；包括中国中铁（00390 HK，目标价7.60港元，评级“买入”）、中国铁建（01186HK，目标价8.10港元，评级“买入”，中国交通建设（01800 HK，目标价5.20港元，评级“收集”）。我们同时推荐受惠于地产回暖、基建投资持续发力主题的公司，尤其是具备组装合成法工程能力的公司，包括中国建筑国际（03311 HK，目标价15.86港元，评级“买入”）、中国建筑兴业（00830 HK，目标价2.66港元，评级“买入”）及远大住工（02163 HK，目标价8.50港元，评级“收集”）。重申行业“跑赢大市”评级。
　　风险提示：1）政府基础设施支出可能低于预期；2）通胀可能超预期，导致政策收紧；3）世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorGaryWong黄家玮快讯建筑工程行业85225092616garywonggtjascomhk2March2023TableMainInfoMinistryofFinanceTheGovernmentWillActivelyLooktoExpandConstructionInvestmentinStrategicAreas快财政部政府将积极扩大重点领域的建设投资讯OnMarch12023MrXuHongcaiViceMinisterofFinancesaidatthepressconferenceorganizedbytheStateFlashNoteCouncilInformationOfficethatthescaleofspecialbondswillbereasonablyarrangedthisyeartoensurethatgovernmentinvestmentwillnotdecreasetheproactivefiscalpolicymustbestrengthenedtoimproveefficiencyOnthebasisofcontinuingtosupportingprojectconstructionin11existingfieldsTransportationinfrastructureenergyagricultureforestryandwaterconservancyecologicalenvironmentalprotectionsocialundertakingsurbanandruralcoldchainandotherlogisticsinfrastructuremunicipalandindustrialparkinfrastructuremajornationalstrategicprojectsaffordablehousingprojectsnewinfrastructurenewenergyprojectsthegovernmentwillappropriatelyexpandthescopeoffieldsofprojectsthatcanbesupportedandthescopeofcapitalusageandcontinuetostrengthentheconstructionofkeyprojectsAccordingtothestatisticsofmysteelnetasofFebruary212023theresumptionrateof12220constructionengineeringprojectsacrossChinawas861aWoWincreaseof96pptsaYoYincreaseof57pptsintermsof证thelunarcalendaryearlaborarrivalratewas839aWoWincreaseof157pptsaYoYincreaseof28pptsin券termsofthelunarcalendaryearFromtheperspectiveofprojecttypestheresumptionrateofinfrastructure研constructionprojectswas873aYoYincreaseof41pptsthemunicipalresumptionratewas882aYoY究increaseof41pptsthehousingconstructionresumptionratewas841aYoYincreaseof31pptsmarginalimprovementswereobviousAccordingtostatisticsfromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinathebusinessResearchReport报activityindexoftheconstructionindustryinFebruarywas602anincreaseof38pointsfromJanuarythenew告orderindexoftheconstructionindustrywas621anincreaseof47pointsfromJanuaryshowingthatmarketEquitydemandcontinuedtopickupWethinkthatwiththegovernmentsstrongwillingnesstoactivelyexpandinvestmenttostabilizetheeconomyandrecoveryinfiscalrevenueforlocalgovernmentsprovidingfinancialsupportthefull-yeargrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentcanremainat7-10证券研究报告OnFebruary24thePeoplesBankofChinaandtheChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissiondraftedtheOpinionsonFinancialSupportfortheDevelopmentoftheHousingLeasingMarketDraftforTCommentputtingforward17opinionstocultivateanddevelopthehousingleasingmarketandpromotethestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestatemarketThiswillprovidefinancialsupportfortheaconstruction-in-progressandcompletionofhousingprojectsInadditionaccordingtodatafromChinaRealb建EstateInformationCorporationCRICthesalesofrealestateenterprisesinFebruaryimprovedmorethan筑lexpectedespeciallyforcentralstate-ownedenterprisesThetop50realestatecompaniesachievedsalesof工eRMB3213billionanincreaseof289YoYandareboundof554pptsfromJanuaryAmongthemthesales程growthrateofprivateenterprisesreboundedby300pptsfromJanuaryreaching-179Thegrowthrateof行state-ownedenterprisesrosesharplyby510pptsfromJanuaryreaching714ThegrowthrateofcentralL业enterprisesrosesharplyby1326pptsfromJanuaryreaching1282Realestate-relatedconstructionecentralenterprisesbenefitedfromtheacceleratedinvestmentinconstruction-in-progressandfcompletionandtherealestatedevelopmentbusinessrevenueandprofitswillincreasesignificantlyThetConstructionSectorEngineeringresultsofthoseenterprisesforthisyearmayexceedexpectationsMWemainlyrecommendcompaniesthatbenefitfromthethemesofacceleratedinvestmentinhousingaconstructionandcompletionexpectedsignificantincreaseinrealestatedevelopmentbusinessperformancecontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentnewopportunitiesalongtheBeltandRoadrbenefitfromstate-ownedenterprisereformandlowvaluationincludingChinaRailwayGroup00390HKgtargetpriceHK760ratingBuyChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKtargetpriceHK810ratingiBuyChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKtargetpriceHK520ratingAccumulateWenalsorecommendcompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoveryandcontinuedpushinSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3Seethelastpagefo港元评级产回暖基建投资持续发力主题的公司尤其是具备组装合成法工程能力的公司包括中国建筑国际HK新机遇国有企业改革和低估值等主题的公司包括中国中铁我们重点推荐受益于房建施工及竣工端投资加快业务收入及利润到升瑞的数据以培育及发展住房租赁市场促进房地产市场平稳健康发展将为房建项目的施工端和竣工端提供资金支持此外根据克而2回暖比际改善明显根据中国统计局的数据873同比升根据百年建筑网的统计截至上链等物流基础设施市政和产业园区基础设施国家重大战略项目保障性安居工程新型基础设施新能源项目极的财政政策要加力提效2023exceedingmayexpectationspolicycausetighteningwarningRiskforOutperformratingthesectorBuyratingHK266HKpricetargetHKexposureMiCwithespeciallyinvestmentinfrastructure风险提示评级rdisclaimerPagePagedisclaimer月7145541目标价适量扩大资金投向领域和用作项目资本金范围持续加力重点项目建设可24月升收集年同比升提供资金支持全年基建投资增速将维持在57日个百分点其中民企销售增速较3央企增速较月47个百分点劳务到位率12买入中国政府基础设施支出可能低于预期重申行业8101月房企销售改善超预期央国企尤其明显个百分点市场需求继续回暖日将41人民银行中国建筑兴业财政部副部长许宏才在国新办的新闻发布会表示oenetnrsrcuepnigablwrhnexpectedthanlowerbemayspendinginfrastructureGovernment1港元评级大幅提升个百分点市政开复工率1跑赢大市月大幅回升1586将在重点支持现有中国nBodoe26HagtrcH0rtnAccumulateratingHK850pricetargetHK02163HomesBroadand相关企业今年的业绩或超预期2023买入rtnBuyrating银保监会起草了关于金融支持住房租赁市场发展的意见征求意见稿提出十七条意见839评级年中国交通建设132600830HK22月建筑业商务活动指数为P月周环比升1个百分点达到21月回升88211我们认为在政府积极扩大投资日全国目标价叠2个领域项目加房地产开发业务业绩7hnSaeosrcineeomn03HtargHK00830DevelopmentConstructionStateChina300同比升通胀157-10HK0180010TOP50个百分点达到12220可能超预期266个百分点农历同比升12824100390HK交通基础设施能源农林水利生态环保社会事业城乡冷港元评级33worldwideseefluctuationsituationmightpandemic房企实现销售个工程项目开复工率为including602个百分点房建开复工率今年将合理安排专项债券规模确保政府投资力度不减积目标价涉房建筑央企受惠导致政策收紧比-目标价179预计将买入520ChinaStateConstructionInternational03311InternationalConstructionStateChina以TablePageHeader1月升人民币稳定经济国企增速较及远大住工大幅增长基建投资持续发力一带一路沿线港元评级2876038个百分点从项目类型看基建开复工率3213港元评级个百分点建筑业新订单指数为的于8613世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动强烈意愿施工及竣工端投资加快841亿元同比增长收集1周环比升月大幅回升02163HKosrcinniernSectorEngineeringConstruction同比提升下买入03311HKosbeinflationpossible2叠我们同时推中国铁建加地方目标价9651028931个百分点目标价政府个百分点达个百分点边较房地产开发荐850财政收入建设基础受惠于地Reiterate621et101186港元1586月回农历price2ofof3n2rgiMae1nigraMelbaTFlashNoteConstructionEngineeringSector建筑工程行业2March2023SeeWebsitewwwgtjacomhkTel852250927FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongResearchThisReportnotisdirectedorintendedatdistributionfortoorbyanyusepersonorentitywhoaiscitizenorThoughbeAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinworpurchaseacquiretoofferorinvitationanconstitutenotdoesReportResearchThisDISCLAIMERinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulatiorlawsubjectGuotaiJunanandapplicablegroupitscompaniesanytoregistrationtoorlicensingrequirementwithincontrarysuchjurbewoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyinunpredicandwherenecessaryinherentlyconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionwithconditionseconomicandpoliticalobjectivesinvestmentfuturethecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintythesosituationmutableofassumptionsthefromderivedforecastsandestimatesforwardsomecontainmayReportResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenessandaccuracytheguaranteenotbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebyassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunandealerspersonsproprietarilyreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcfHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredthRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingDefinitionRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexCompanyRatingDefinitionTableCompanyRatingDefinition654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSTabledisclosuree2023UnderperformNeutralOutperformSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuylasReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanandgroupitscompaGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedReportResthisinmentionedissuertheofrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketamakingnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiReportwithinprecedingthe12monthsReseathisinmentionedissuersthewithrelationshipsbankinginvestment09889hadnothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiBANKCOMMERCIALRURALHKDONGGUANthisResearchReport06196HKBANKOFZHENGZHOUHKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies02558donotholdequaltoormoretBANKHKJINSHANGforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchRettheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportpagGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedsteffortstbeenhasensuremadetoaccuracytheoftheinformationanddatacontainedthisinResearchReportGuotaiJunandoefordisclaimerPagePagedisclaimer-18Fax85225099118andotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferordifferreportmaythisexpressedinopinionscompaniesAnyofprofessionalGuotaiJunanothergroupandexecutivesofHNGADHRAETCLNHATCR01HLZOBN18HSRI02191REITHKSF01983BANKHKLUZHOU00512HEALTHCAREANDPHARMACEUTICALGRANDCHINA跑输大市中性跑赢大市卖出减持中性收集买入orfundamentaltheoutlookofthesectorisunfavorableRelativePerformanceorfundamentaltheoutlookofthesectorisneutralRelativePerformanceisorfundamentaltheoutlookofthesectorisfavorableRelativePerformance5RelativePerformanceis5to15orfundamentaltheoutlookoftheRelativePerformance15orfundamentaltheoutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableRelativePerformanceorfundamentaltheoutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableRelativePerformanceisorfundamentaltheoutlookofthecompanyorsectorisRelativePerformanceisorfundamentaltheoutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableDefinitionDefinition-7793P--515---5to55to5to5-orexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvest15companyorsectorisfavorablehan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinTablePageHeaderneutralsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesJunanGuotaibysecuritiesforsubscribeisdictionosrcinniernSectorEngineeringConstructionresidentorofanditsrelatedrisksrelateditsandrittenformbysalesonorwhichwouldwhichoroninthisResearchinresearchportalandtable-3locatedloniesofofearchoking3rchesn2rgiMae1nigraMelbaTFlashNoteConstructionEngineeringSector建筑工程行业2March2023