受国内经济复苏支撑，国内金属价格表现好于海外金属价格。美联储的紧缩货币政策可能会保持更长时间以抑制通胀，这将影响基本金属的投资需求。但是国内金属价格受到更强劲基本面的支撑，因为经济复苏预计将带来更多金属需求。
　　需求复苏低于市场预期，铝库存下降并不平稳。云南的减产低于市场预期。在需求方面，铝加工企业在春节后复工缓慢且低于去年同期水平。
　　来自金融市场投资需求的支撑在减少，铜价可能承压。海外铜矿的生产仍然受到不可控因素的影响，这将影响到全球的矿产供应。金融投资者对铜的投资需求在下降，这将减少对铜价的支撑。随着更多地方支持房地产政策的发布和房地产交易数据的改善，国内铜的消费需求在改善。
　　我们维持有色金属行业“跑赢大市”的投资评级。我们推荐中国宏桥（01378 HK）、兴发铝业（00098 HK）和紫金矿业（02899 HK）。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk28February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateDomesticMetalMarketHadBetter行PerformancethanOverseasMarket业双周报国内金属市场表现好于海外市场Domesticmetalpricesweresupportedbydomesticeconomicrecovery报andhadbetterperformancethanoverseasmetalpricesThetightRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportmonetarypolicyoftheUSFederalReservemaybemaintainedforalongerMaintainedperiodtocurbinflationwhichmaynegativelyimpacttheinvestmentdemandofbasemetalsHoweverdomesticmetalpricesweresupportedbystronger评级跑赢大市维持fundamentalsaseconomicrecoveryisexpectedtobringmoredemandof2metalsNonferrousmetalssectorperformanceDemandrecoverywaslowerthanmarketexpectationandaluminum有色金属行业表现inventorydeclinewasnotsmoothProductioncutinYunnanProvinceis1400returnlowerthanmarketexpectationInthedemandsideproductionofaluminum1200semi-fabricatingcompaniesresumedslowlyaftertheChineseNewYearand1000waslowercomparedtothesameperiodlastyear800600Supportfromfinancialmarketinvestmentdemandisdecliningcopper400证pricemaybeunderpressureProductionfromoverseascoppermineswas200告stilldisturbedbyuncontrollablefactorswhichwillimpactglobalmining00券-200supplyFinancialinvestorsinvestmentdemandincopperisdecliningsothe研报-400supportforcopperpricewilldecreaseDomesticcopperconsumption-600究究demandisimprovingasmorelocalsupportingpoliciesonthepropertysector-800Feb22Apr22Jun22Aug22Oct22Dec22Feb23ResearchReportwerereleasedandpropertytradingdatawasimprovingcopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin报研WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetals告SourceBloomberg券sectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminiumEquity00098HKandZijinMining02899HK证受国内经济复苏支撑国内金属价格表现好于海外金属价格美联储的紧缩货币政策可能会保持更长时间以抑制通胀这将影响基本金属的投资需求但是国内金属价格受到更强劲基本面的支撑因为经济复苏预计将带来更多金属需求需求复苏低于市场预期铝库存下降并不平稳云南的减产低于市场预期在需求方面铝加工企业在春节后复工缓慢且低于去年同期水平T来自金融市场投资需求的支撑在减少铜价可能承压海外铜矿的生产仍然受到不可控因a素的影响这将影响到全球的矿产供应金融投资者对铜的投资需求在下降这将减少对b铜价的支撑随着更多地方支持房地产政策的发布和房地产交易数据的改善国内铜的消有费需求在改善色l我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴金e发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HK属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8SeeGrowthof4NewberatevehiclesmaylowermarketthanenergyexpectationsChinasmacro3economygrowthbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsrate21RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098Mining02899ZijinHKWIwasandreleasedtradingdataimprovingsuspendedproductionwhilerainfallraisefundamentalsglobalcoppersupplywasmaystilldisturbedbyuncontrollablefactorsIndonesianwhichcopperminewasaffectedbyheavexpectationsmarketbeatallPMIanddataexpectationmarketjobPCECPIassuchdataeconomicUSlatestCoppeofinventorycommercialSMMaluminumbartonsincreasedaluminum3200andsmoothnotisdeclineinventoryaluminumDomesticrespectively811and778toppts03pptsto618inthelastweekcapacityutilizationrateofaluminumplateyearlastperiodsamethetocomparedPsideDemandIttonsmay400milliondecreaseiffurtherproductionslightlycapacitycuttakesplacer040partlyGuangxiProvinceandProvinceGansuinproductionaluminumPrimarybemayProvinceYunnanincutoutputaluminumprimaryProductioncutinYunnanProvinceislowerthanmarketexpectationsideSupplyAluminumthanperformanceoverseasbhadpricesmetalDomesticmetalsofdemandmorebringtoexpectedisrecoveryeconomicasfundamentalsstrongermetalswillbenegativelyimpactepolicymonetarythefromInformationpricesmetalbhadandrecoveryeconomicdomesticbysupportedwerepricesmetalDomesticSectornthConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainecontinuemayoutocpctoauiusemialuminumofcapacityroductionvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineReturntoworkReturnfactoriesprocessdownstreamtoofmissmayexpectationelasstrpagUpdateSupportesDomesticDomesticDfoonreOutperformmandrecoverythanlowermandmarketexpectationwasdisclaimernJanuaryIntothermiacamreivsmndmnisdemandinvestmentmarketfinancialfromcurbinflationThetightpolicymaybemaintainedforalongerperiodlongeraformaintainedbemaypolicytightTheinflationcurbUSUScoppersofofeeaReservesFederalFederalReserveMeetinginFebruaryindicatedthatthethatindicatedFebruaryinMeetingReserveFederalinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentthemetalmetalpricesandshCIPIPEnjbaktaafhUwraletrhnaktexpectationsmarketthanbetterallwereUStheofdatamarketjobandPCEPMICPItheconsumptiondemandconsumptionCobrePanamaofFirstQuantumwashaltedduetotoduehaltedwasQuantumFirstofPanamaCobreddandmetalprice-PfabrroductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingcompanieswasupwascompaniesfabricatingaluminumleadingofrateutilizationcapacityroductionctncmaiseueslowlyresumedcompaniesicatingotatoiyAaeutivsmndmnsocpedcessOtheOndecreasescopperfordemandsinvestmentresultaAspolicycontractuchtrendisexpectedbemaintainedfortoawhilePthethes-maymaybeunderpressureHoweverdomesticmetalpricesweresupportedby2130tonstotonstons2130milliontons125andmillion018respectivelyisimprovingasmorelocalsupportingpoliciesonthepropertysectorweresectorthepropertyonsupportingpolicieslocalasmoreimprovingisnonferrousmetals-0ilotnhcilwrhnaktexpectationmarketthanloweriswhichtonsmillion050sAccordingtoelnnoprrcmyenepressureunderbemaypricecopperdecliningsandaluminuminventorynotsmoothwasdeclinesectorsheetTablePageHeaderesumedandtotalproductioncapacityisaroundaroundiscapacityproductionandtotalesumedWfetehnsNwYeaNewChinesetheaftererecommendChinaHongqiao01378HK01378HongqiaoChinarecommendetheUSloadingpermissioninthePanamaportwasportwasPanamatheinloadingpermissionandfieldfieldinvestigationdataofMysteelactualFederalReservewillmaintainthetightthemaintainwillReserveFederalHenceinvestmentdemandforbasebasefordemandinvestmentHencealuminumfoilwasup10etterperformancethanoverseasthanperformanceetterofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrousrnwslowerwasandpptsand07PagePageetter2Thetheofofy8in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业28February2023SeeSourceTableSourceTablePricetheSHFESHFE000tonsSHFE000lasLME000tonsLME--andandInventoryMetalsBaseofBloombergBloombergt21AluminumAluminumAluminumAluminumpagCopperCopperCopperCopperChangeofofmetalinventoryChangeofmetalpriceChangeNickelNickelNickelNickelLeadLeadLeadLeadZincZincZincZincTinTinTinTineUStRMBtforGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaidisclaimer20232272023227202322720232272128302128302190806852068520245542455425651232651536018765296429642071233687174869486910572690242048126322163150932323479P6179241520201614---------11811135--060046009078953964684883393518388496465075123116333645wowwowwowwowTablePageHeader---2010713612-------251520751776613215041682131711921110--4760491872475557267513590028298046974584mommommommomofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrous---------13004127082401---------4232181612563044343210035739117118113170079-43108272573944371484359227493850553937yoyyoyyoyyoyPagePage3ofof8in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业28February2023SeFigureFigureFigureeCSourceSourceSourceSource1000150020002500thopper10001200140016001800200010000120005002000400060008000e0las0---Feb-22t531InternationalCopperStudyGroupStudyCopperInternationalGroupStudyCopperInternationalBloombergpagJanSector000tons000GlobalmonthlyGlobalrefinedofcopperdemandmonthlyGlobalprimeofcopperoutputpricecopperandLMEinventory000tons000LMEcopperinventorytonsinventorycopperLMEefoFebApr-22rdisclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiMar2019Jun-22AprmonthlymonthlydemandMay2020Aug-22JunOct-22JulGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai2021LMEcopperpricecopperLMEUStAugyoyDec-22Sep2022OctPFeb-23Nov020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000200000Dec-150-100-5000501001502002505000060000700008000020002200240010000200003000040000-25000-20000-15000-1000010001200140016001800FigureFigureFigure100001500020000-50005000SourceSourceBloombergSourceSourceSource0000Feb-22Jan000tons000---SHFEcopperinventorytons426InternationalCopperStudyStudyCopperInternationalGroupStudyCopperInternational000tons000GpriceandinventorySHFEcopperGFebApr-22lobalmonthlyrefinedlobalcopperofoutputlobalcoppersupplylobalTablePageHeaderMar2019GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJun-22AprMay2020Aug-22JunGroupJulOct-222021-SHFEcopperpriceRMBtSHFEpricecopperdemandbalancedemandGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiAugofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrousDec-22Sep2022OctFeb-23Nov050000100000150000200000250000300000PagePageDec4ofof8in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业28February2023SeNorthernChinaCompanyNNorthernChinaCompanyMMiddleChinaCompanyLSouthwesternChinaCompanyKEasternChinaCompanyJSouthernChinaCompanyIEasternChinaCompanyHMiddleChinaCompanyFEasternChinaCompanyESouthwesternChinaCompanyDSouthernChinaCompanyCEasternEasternChinaCompanyACompaniesNorthernChinaCompanyPNorthernChinaCompanyOetillinformationreflecteddatatheNoteSourceTablethelas-ChinaCompanyBShanghaiMetalsMarketMetalsShanghait3pagSMMcopperfabricationcopperindustrySMMratesurveyutilizationefordisclaimerSMMFebruary1FebruaryWeeklyutilizationrateGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai100008727618745965280534634564800829196007363436496004800606302023PChangeinventoryofnormalnormalnormalnormalnormalnormalnormalhighhighhighhighlowlowlowlowNeworderNeworderDemandisweakDemandisweakinventoryincreaseDemandislowerthanexpectationHighinventoryAproductionlinesisonmaintenanceoutputdecreaseNewdecreaseordersduehightocopperpriceNewwereorderslowerthanexpectationsNeworderDemandisDemandisweakNewimproveordersinventorydecreaseNewweakorderisinventoryincreaseNewweakorderisProductionandsalesofcompaniesTablePageHeaderisweakisinventoryincreasebetterisinnorthwestoutputincreaseweakisduehightocopperpricestableproductionwashaltedtemporarofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrousilyPagePage5ofof8in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业28February2023SeFigureFigureFigureeAluminumSectorSourceBaichuanInfoSourceBaichuanInstituteAluminumSourceInternationalSourceBloombergth55006000650070003000350040004500300035004000450050001000150020002500e500las0Feb-22---t1197pagJanLMELMEaluminuminventorytonsMonthlyLME000tons000ProductioncostsProductiondistributionChinassmeltersofeApr-22foFeb14raludisclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiMar201942minumpriceandminumpriceandinventoryaluGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJun-228Aprminumoutpu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