研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus24February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变DatangOnTrackToBreakThroughGrowth01798HKHK334--Buy--NRenewableConstraintsInitiateWithBuy大唐新能源01798HK有望突破成长性制约首予买入HK334--买入--否证告券AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports研报后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版究究报研HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance告31000券14000EquityResearchReport29000证12000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2035135-035102662799404恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE68599504083243228587国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4149121183687500035595789科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatFeb22Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻TheBankofJapanGovernorHaruhikoKurodasaidmonetarypolicywouldremainloosewiththegoalofstabilizinginflationInflationislikelytofallbelow2bythemiddleoffiscal2023andisexpectedtostaybelow2nextyear日本央行行长黑田东彦表示将维持宽松的货币政策目标是稳定通胀日本通胀可能在2023财年中期降至2以下预计明年将保持在2以下TheBankofKoreakeptitsbenchmarkinterestrateunchangedat35hittingthepausebuttonforthefirsttimeaftersevensuccessiveincreases韩国央行维持基准利率35不变为连续加息7次后首次按下暂停键IndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestLatestReportsDatangRenewable01798HKOnTrackToBreakThroughGrowthConstraintsInitiateWithBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK334AnalystPeterShaoReportDate2023-02-23SummaryInitiatewithBuyWearepositiveonChinaDatangCorporationRenewablePowerDTRortheCompanyastheCompanyisontracktobreakthroughthegrowthconstraintsthathavelongweighedonitsvaluationWeforecastgrowing2022-2024EPSofRMB0265472yoyRMB0316192yoyRMB0480519yoyrespectivelyWesetourTPatHK334basedon92x2023PERWherewedifferThemarketgenerallyexpectsDTRtohavelacklustergrowthduetoseveralconstraintsnotablyunclearpositioningwithinChinaDatangCorporationCDCortheGroupandundesirableassetperformanceWeontheotherhandseeDTRasbetterpositionedunderSecondaryEntrepreneurshiptobreakthroughthegroup-levelconstraintsforgrowthwhilewindfarmrepoweringhasbecomeincreasinglyfeasiblefortheCompanytobothunlockcapacitygrowthandturnaroundassetperformanceBetterpositionedtobreakthroughgrowthconstraintsWeseeeasingconstraintsforgrowthatthegroupleveldrivenbySecondaryEntrepreneurshipanunprecedentedreformcarriedoutbyCDCtoreshapetheGroupsgovernanceandpavewayforaccelerateddevelopmentinsupportofChinasdualcarbongoalWebelievetheJVformedrecentlybetweenDTRandDatangXinjiangshowedincreasingclarityonDTRspositioningwithintheGroupwhileDTRsfasterspeedinobtainingdevelopmentquotasince2021isalsosupportiveofourviewofeasinggrowthconstraintsMeanwhilewithmorewindcapacitiesofDTRreachingtheagefeasibleforrepoweringtheCompanysearningprofileissetforafundamentalchangeArelativelyhighproportionofoldwindfarmhaslongdraggedDTRsassetefficiencyandtheCompanyisexpectedtohavearound40GWofwindcapacitiesagedover15yearsby2025WindrepoweringonaveragecanmorethandoublethegenerationcapacityandtriplethepoweroutputofarepoweredsiteCatalystsStronginstalledcapacitygrowthmoreclarityonDTRspositioningwithintheGroupandacceleratedcollectionofrenewablesubsidiesRisksDelayinprojectroll-outhigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostsandextremeweatherconditionsChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告大唐新能源01798HK有望突破成长性制约首予买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK334分析员邵俊樨报告日期2023-02-23报告摘要首予买入我们看好大唐新能源以下简称公司是因为公司有望突破影响其估值的成长性制约因素我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为人民币0265元同比4720316元同比1920480元同比519基于92倍2023年PE给予334港元目标价我们的差异化观点市场认为公司受到来自大唐集团内部定位不清及资产表现欠佳等因素制约成长增速缓慢但我们认为二次创业改革为公司打破集团内部制约以获得更好的成长性提供了条件而风场改造作为双重提升公司装机量及资产表现的选项亦渐行渐近有望打破成长性制约我们看到集团层面制约公司成长性的因素在二次创业推动下出现缓解二次创业是大唐集团进行的一项前所未有的改革旨在重塑集团内部治理来实现加速发展以支持中国双碳目标我们认为公司近期与大唐新疆成立合资公司可表明公司在集团内部定位越发清晰而公司2021年以来加快的项目配额获取速度也支持我们成长性制约因素出现缓解的观点同时随着公司越来越多风电步入可改造年限公司盈利画像将迎来根本性变化公司资产效率历年来受相对较高的老旧风场比例拖累预计公司到2025年将有约40吉瓦风电运行超过15年平均来看老旧风场改造可提高装机量至原来的两倍发电量至原来的三倍催化剂强劲的装机量增长公司在集团内定位更为清晰可再生能源补贴回收速度加快主要风险项目开展延迟原材料价格高于预期极端天气Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6