报告摘要
　　婴幼儿奶粉产品新国标于2023年2月22日落地。首先，我们认为新国标针对配方成分含量设置了较高的门槛。市场参与者不但需要增加开支升级生产线，还不得不为注册产品配方而支付额外费用。部分中小型厂商或退出市场。在新国标下，国内龙头品牌具备先发优势，且与后排梯队的本土品牌及海外产地的品牌相比，其配方注册情况更为领先。长期来看，我们预计中国奶粉市场的CR3将由2021年的40%逐步成长至60%。2023年则是市占率加速向头部集中的重要窗口期。我们认为，国内龙头品牌的增长潜力或将超出市场预期。现阶段，对于投资婴幼儿奶粉赛道，市场情绪有望迎来拐点；短期应可看到基本面呈现边际改善。我们对中国飞鹤（06186 HK）的投资评级为“买入”，目标价8.67港元。
　　维持食品饮料行业“跑赢大市”评级。我们建议投资者应继续关注的投资机会还包括：1）国内大型啤酒厂商以及2）部分非酒精饮品企业。具体而言，我们对华润啤酒（00291 HK）和中国食品（00506 HK）的投资评级为“买入”，目标价分别为62.60港元和3.60港元。此外，农夫山泉（09633 HK）、维他奶（00345 HK）和青岛啤酒（00168 HK）亦是受益标的。
　　主要风险因素：1）国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期；2）原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期；以及3）食品安全问题。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus23February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapFoodExpectingMajorLocalMilkPowderBeverage--Outperform--NBrandsToFurtherGainMarketShareSectorDrivenbyNewNationalStandards行业报告双周报预计新国标将驱动国食品饮料行业--跑赢大市--否内龙头奶粉品牌进一步巩固市场份额证告券TypeofReportTitle报IssueDate研报告类型标题宏观鹰派韩国央行会否引领增量加息2023年2月22日究究报研AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告券EquityResearchReport后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23Feb22May22Aug22Nov22Feb23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2042384-051114607785491恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE683276-13373243285611国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of5MorningResearchFocusHSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE410058-1383715600035595789科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatFeb21PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportFoodBeverageSectorBi-WeeklyWrapExpectingMajorLocalMilkPowderBrandsToFurtherGainMarketShareDrivenbyNewNationalStandardsRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAndyChenReportDate2023-02-22SummaryNewnationalstandardsforinfantmilkpowderproductstakingeffecton22February2023BasicallywethinkthatthenewnationalstandardssetsahigherbarrieronthecontentofformulaingredientsThatsaidmarketplayersshouldpaymorenotonlyforupgradingtheirproductiontechnologybutalsoforregisteringtheirproductformulasSomesmallerplayersmayexitAsearlymoverslarge-scalelocalbrandsarewell-preparedunderthenewnationalstandardsandclearlyhaveformulaadvantagecomparedtosmall-scalelocalbrandsandthoseproducedoverseasWeexpectthecombinedmarketshareofthetop3milkpowderplayersinChinatograduallygrowfrom40in2021to60inthelongrunTheyearof2023willbethemostsignificantperiodforacceleratingshareconsolidationWebelievethatthegrowthpotentialofleadinglocalbrandsmayexceedmarketexpectationsAtthisstagefortheinfantmilkpowdersegmentmarketsentimentislikelytoreachaturningpointmarginalimprovementinfundamentalswillalsobeseeninthenearfutureWehaveBuyinvestmentratingonChinaFeihe06186HKwithTPofHK867MaintainOutperformratingfortheFoodBeveragesectorInvestorsmayalsokeepfocusingoninvestmentopportunitieson1Chinaslarge-scalebreweriesand2somenon-alcoholicbeveragecompaniesTobespecificwehaveBuyinvestmentratingonChinaResourcesBeer00291HKandChinaFoods00506HKwithTPofHK6260andHK360respectivelyBesidesNongfuSpring09633HKVitasoy00345HKandTsingtaoBrewery00168HKwillbebeneficiariesMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowthhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementofrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblemsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of5MorningResearchFocusTableFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告食品饮料行业双周报预计新国标将驱动国内龙头奶粉品牌进一步巩固市场份额评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员陈思超报告日期2023-02-22报告摘要婴幼儿奶粉产品新国标于2023年2月22日落地首先我们认为新国标针对配方成分含量设置了较高的门槛市场参与者不但需要增加开支升级生产线还不得不为注册产品配方而支付额外费用部分中小型厂商或退出市场在新国标下国内龙头品牌具备先发优势且与后排梯队的本土品牌及海外产地的品牌相比其配方注册情况更为领先长期来看我们预计中国奶粉市场的CR3将由2021年的40逐步成长至602023年则是市占率加速向头部集中的重要窗口期我们认为国内龙头品牌的增长潜力或将超出市场预期现阶段对于投资婴幼儿奶粉赛道市场情绪有望迎来拐点短期应可看到基本面呈现边际改善我们对中国飞鹤06186HK的投资评级为买入目标价867港元维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市评级我们建议投资者应继续关注的投资机会还包括1国内大型啤酒厂商以及2部分非酒精饮品企业具体而言我们对华润啤酒00291HK和中国食品00506HK的投资评级为买入目标价分别为6260港元和360港元此外农夫山泉09633HK维他奶00345HK和青岛啤酒00168HK亦是受益标的主要风险因素1国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期2原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期以及3食品安全问题鹰派韩国央行会否引领增量加息宏观组周浩报告日期2023-02-22报告摘要韩国央行将在明天议息从近期越来越鹰派的表态以及韩国高居不下的通胀数据来看让市场开始重新定价韩国央行进一步加息的概率在本轮加息周期中韩国央行的首次加息比美联储提前半年在很大程度上表明其天生的鹰派属性而这一属性在通胀环境高企的背景下值得市场的关注从贸易表现来看韩国的进出口数据也在近期出现一定程度的改善目前主要的拖累项是芯片以及对中国的出口但伴随着中国经济在第二季度的预期企稳以及欧美经济表现尚可韩国出口在未来一段时期预期将出现改善因此对于韩国央行而言进一步的加息似乎已经成为一个必选项由于市场预期美联储会在5月和6月分别再加息各25个基点市场对于韩国央行在4月11日的议息会议上加息的概率开始进一步抬升与以往相比韩国央行一旦进一步加息则会影响其他亚洲央行比如说印度印尼菲律宾以及新加坡由于通胀在这些经济体仍然保持在较高的水平上货币政策的进一步紧缩将成为这些央行的选项市场也会因此更加关注日本央行的举动作为罕见的仍然实行负利率的主要央行韩国央行的鹰派举措也会让市场更加关注这个经济结构颇为相像的亚洲邻国Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of5MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of5MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKTENCENT00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationor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