婴幼儿奶粉产品新国标于2023年2月22日落地。首先，我们认为新国标针对配方成分含量设置了较高的门槛。市场参与者不但需要增加开支升级生产线，还不得不为注册产品配方而支付额外费用。部分中小型厂商或退出市场。在新国标下，国内龙头品牌具备先发优势，且与后排梯队的本土品牌及海外产地的品牌相比，其配方注册情况更为领先。长期来看，我们预计中国奶粉市场的CR3将由2021年的40%逐步成长至60%。2023年则是市占率加速向头部集中的重要窗口期。我们认为，国内龙头品牌的增长潜力或将超出市场预期。现阶段，对于投资婴幼儿奶粉赛道，市场情绪有望迎来拐点；短期应可看到基本面呈现边际改善。我们对中国飞鹤（06186 HK）的投资评级为“买入”，目标价8.67港元。
　　维持食品饮料行业“跑赢大市”评级。我们建议投资者应继续关注的投资机会还包括：1）国内大型啤酒厂商以及2）部分非酒精饮品企业。具体而言，我们对华润啤酒（00291 HK）和中国食品（00506 HK）的投资评级为“买入”，目标价分别为62.60港元和3.60港元。此外，农夫山泉（09633 HK）、维他奶（00345 HK）和青岛啤酒（00168 HK）亦是受益标的。
　　主要风险因素：1）国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期；2）原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期；以及3）食品安全问题。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportFoodBeverageSectorAndyChen陈思超行业报告食品饮料行业85225092665andychengtjascomhk22February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapExpectingMajorLocalMilkPowderBrandsTo行FurtherGainMarketShareDrivenbyNewNationalStandards业双周报预计新国标将驱动国内龙头奶粉品牌进一步巩固市场份额报Newnationalstandardsforinfantmilkpowderproductstakingeffecton22February2023BasicallywethinkthatthenewnationalstandardssetsaRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReporthigherbarrieronthecontentofformulaingredientsThatsaidmarketplayersMaintainedshouldpaymorenotonlyforupgradingtheirproductiontechnologybutalsoforregisteringtheirproductformulasSomesmallerplayersmayexitAsearly评级跑赢大市维持moverslarge-scalelocalbrandsarewell-preparedunderthenewnational2standardsandclearlyhaveformulaadvantagecomparedtosmall-scalelocalMSCIHKconsumerstaplesvsHSIbrandsandthoseproducedoverseasWeexpectthecombinedmarketshareperformanceofthetop3milkpowderplayersinChinatograduallygrowfrom40in2021MSCI港股上市必选消费板块指数及恒生指数表现to60inthelongrunTheyearof2023willbethemostsignificantperiodforacceleratingshareconsolidationWebelievethatthegrowthpotentialof300ofreturnleadinglocalbrandsmayexceedmarketexpectationsAtthisstageforthe200infantmilkpowdersegmentmarketsentimentislikelytoreachaturning100证pointmarginalimprovementinfundamentalswillalsobeseeninthenear00告futureWehaveBuyinvestmentratingonChinaFeihe06186HKwithTP券ofHK867100研报200MaintainOutperformratingfortheFoodBeveragesectorInvestors究究mayalsokeepfocusingoninvestmentopportunitieson1Chinaslarge-scale300ResearchReportbreweriesand2somenon-alcoholicbeveragecompaniesTobespecificwe报研400haveBuyinvestmentratingonChinaResourcesBeer00291HKandChinaFeb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23告HSIIndexMSCIHKConsumerStaplesIndex券Foods00506HKwithTPofHK6260andHK360respectivelyBesidesEquitySourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNongfuSpring09633HKVitasoy00345HKandTsingtaoBrewery00168证HKwillbebeneficiariesMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowthhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementofrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblems婴幼儿奶粉产品新国标于2023年2月22日落地首先我们认为新国标针对配方成分T含量设置了较高的门槛市场参与者不但需要增加开支升级生产线还不得不为注册产品a配方而支付额外费用部分中小型厂商或退出市场在新国标下国内龙头品牌具备先发优势且与后排梯队的本土品牌及海外产地的品牌相比其配方注册情况更为领先长期b食来看我们预计中国奶粉市场的CR3将由2021年的40逐步成长至602023年则是品l市占率加速向头部集中的重要窗口期我们认为国内龙头品牌的增长潜力或将超出市场饮e预期现阶段对于投资婴幼儿奶粉赛道市场情绪有望迎来拐点短期应可看到基本面料呈现边际改善我们对中国飞鹤06186HK的投资评级为买入目标价867港元行维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市评级我们建议投资者应继续关注的投资机会还包括1L业国内大型啤酒厂商以及2部分非酒精饮品企业具体而言我们对华润啤酒00291HKe和中国食品00506HK的投资评级为买入目标价分别为6260港元和360港元FoodBeverageSector此外农夫山泉维他奶和青岛啤酒亦是受益f09633HK00345HK00168HK标的t主要风险因素1国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期2原材料及包装物价格变动M超出预期以及3食品安全问题arginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6See21pptIndexbutStaplesConsumerKongMSCIHongthewithsynergyinroughly2023HK06186retHKModernwithperiodical01117DairywasgainerThetopIndexpptby06KongTheHongKongfoodandbeveragesectorslightlyunderperformedVitasoyisbottletoponofrecoverysubRTDteaandwaterbottledofrunsalesshortNonBuyalsoWeremaindomesticbreweriesmajorofimprovingtimetheofAtsame2023seasonpeakandnightlifeBeersectorincludeandproductdriverssystemfpricingstabilitybeinseenthenearfutureindsegmentinfantpowdermilktheforstagethisacceleratingshareconsolidationpowderplayers10topmarkettheofsmalltocomparedadvantageformulahaveclearlyFurthermoreexitmayplayerssmallerSomeformulasproductaccordingtoourtheirobservationlargeregisteringforalsobuttechnologyproductiontheircontheonbarrierhigherasetsthenewstandardsmayinprincipleapplytochangetheirregistrationnewafterregistrationstandardstheofrenewalsandchangesAdministrationforMarketRegulation2023February22oneffecttakingproductspowdermilkinfantforstandardsnationalNewthmorelikelytolargelystrengthene-linegrowthweseelasSectorCore-alcoholicbeveragesectorbeveragealcoholic--listedfoodandbeveragecompaniesdropped62onweightedaaveragegradePETresinhasalreadyusheredinadownwardturningpointtheprofitabilityofthetpagplayersinChinatograduallygrowfrom40growgraduallyChinatoplayersin00345HKwillbebeneficiaries00345opereIdeasfowithperiodicalreturnofchannelsinchannels2022expectthatWevolumecontributionfromhighPerformancePremiumizationwillremainawillremainlongcorePremiumizationsharemaybemayreallocatedfromsharer-ationalationalefficiencyweexpectsectorearningsgrowthtostaywillbefurtherconcentratedtowardsthetopthetowardsconcentratedfurtherbewillpremiseconsumptionForsoftbeveragebeveragepremiseForsoftconsumptiondisclaimerrecommendSectorUpdateInvestmentandSuggestionssomesomepositivesonmilkpowdermilkWeWeTsingtaoBreweryReviewhavehaveBuytentofformulaingredientsThatsaidmarketplayersshouldpaymorenotonlyforupgradingforonlynotmorepayshouldplayersmarketsaidThatingredientsformulaoftentWethinkWethatthegrowthpotentialofleadinglocalbrandsmayexceedmarketexpectationsAtin2023WehaveBuyratingonandInthesugardrinksrunlonghealthy-scalequiteForregisteredForproductformulaswhohaveregistrantsformulastheirmodifiedaccordingto-startingfromthedateofpromulgationmarketapplicantsmayfileforregistrationincluding190productformulasaccordingtothenewstandardsandorganizeproductionaccordingtoaccordingproductionorganizeandstandardsnewthetoaccordingformulasproductmarginalreliefoncostpressurewillsupportgrossmarginofbreweriesTogetherwithwithTogetherbreweriesofmargingrosssupportwillpressurecostonreliefmarginallocalbrandsasearlymoversarewellthecostsideSincethemarketpriceofrawmaterialsandpackagingcomponentseghealthyOurinvestmentratingonsmaOverallthetop20HK20toptheOverallP00168ll-ustrysentimentislikelytoreachaturningpointmarginalimprovementcouldcouldimprovementturningmarginalpointareachtolikelysentimentisustrycategoriesaremorelikelytoseesubstantialYoYgrowthprimarilyduetotheduetoprimarilyYoYsubstantialgrowthseetolikelymorearecategories-reshnessandmedium-scalelocalbrandsandthoseproducedoverseasInourviewnearly20nearlyviewourInoverseasproducedthoseandbrandslocalscale-in2021to60inthelongrun2023willbethemostsignificantperiodforperiodsignificantthemostwillberun2023thelong60in2021intotermtermtrendinChinaHKtoppickiscompanies3playersWeexpectthecombinedmarketshareofthetoptheofsharemarketcombinedtheexpectWeplayersChinaFeihe-sizedbrandstothetop10playersandthemarketshareoftheChinaResourcesBeerproductinnovationremains-ChinaChinaFoodslistedfooddetailsBasicallywethinkthatthenewnationalstandardsFromFrom7Februaryto21February2023thetop20Hongsbeermarketdespiteoperationaldisruptiontodiningtodiningdisruptionoperationaldespitesbeermarketsolidsolidin2023-freeconsumptionisbecomingmorepopularInthepopularmoreisbecomingfreeconsumption-06186HKwithTPofHK867endsaleswillcontinuetoexpandespeciallyintheTablePageHeader-andcompaniesbeveragepreparedpreparedubasisslightlyunderperformingunderperformingtheHangSengIndexby55IndexbySengHangtheunderperformingurnof147ThetoploserwasChinawas147FeiheChinaloserofThetopurn0050600506HK-2024Intheshort00291HKwithinvestmentratingnderthenewnationalstandardsandNongfuNongfuSpringnonessential-alcoholicAccordingtoChinatoAccordingodBvrgSectorBeverageFooddecreased17YTDtermBesidesbeverageKeyfundamentalinventorylevels09633HKandtheHangSengacceleratedPagePageindustrysStates32milkofofof6in2argMbleTa1nigraMelbaTSectorReportFoodBeverageSector食品饮料行业22February2023SeFigureFigure21toFigureeNoteSourceNoteSourceNoteSourceBloomberg-25-20-15-10-10th10152010-5-50505-70-50-30-10e10305070MarketdataupdatedasatatasupdateddataMarketdataMarketlasFebruaryMarketdataupdatedasatatasupdateddataMarket---t431BloombergBloomberg--41pag22-Performanceoftop20topofPerformance20topofPerformance20HKFB132e-fo-105-6263r215updatedasatatasupdated2023disclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai-sectorsector-751973-5549underperformed-212121136FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary--244271-190HKHK-190-20232023202309---330listedfoodandlistedfoodandbeveragecompaniesYTDlistedfoodandbeveragecompanies8895ReturnYTD2023Return-542during-P104--7956-4817February7147182-224-4035-41--4462-20-15-10101520-5-MSCIConsumerStaplesIndexConsumerMSCIandYTDHSIFigure6905NoteSourceBloombergReturn2022Return--108111MarketdataupdatedasatatasupdateddataMarket115-2-17--3180HK-between206TablePageHeaderReturnYTD2023Return-52FBsectorunderperformedFBsector--31472023and-91GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai-1674321February-15--28520226121-16FebruaryFebruary55--148178toto443Return2022Return212023--odBvrgSectorBeverageFood4955February16038-0734against-37-155202330582023PagePage3ofof6in2argMbleTa1nigraMelbaTSectorReportFoodBeverageSector食品饮料行业22February2023SeTablee3NotedatamarketAllSourceCarlsbergsawstrongvolumegrowthparticularlyAsiainin2022progrescontinuedonbasedisoutlookThisdevelopmentsgeopoliticalHEINEKENandmacroeconomicunforeseensignificantanytosubject28reachinggitsandChinaandvolumeVietnamperformancedrivenexcellentdoubleditsinbyHeinekenextensionsthanSilvermorelinegrowingoutpersignificantly2019torelative315andexcluyear145versuslast125upbrandHeinekenthebyledgrowthThisis2022involumebeergrowthorganicintotalHEINEKENorganicallydoublewithcontributedregionspriceunderlyingThe139up26583revenueNetmillionincreasedbyorganically212totalwithconsolidatedvolumegrowingandrevenuenet64pbycompanythetoAccordingHeinekenHoldingNVreportseinfluctuationthetogreatlydueimpactedprofitthelossesexchangeinincreaseaniiiandmaterialsrawofpricesinincreaseantodueincreaseddecreasedsomestoresofGrouptheexperiencedtemporaryclosurewhichhadimpactsomeonflowsalthecustomertheibecauseprimarilyCOVIDresurgenceofwasdecreaseSuchmillionRMB28700ofthatmillionascomparedwiththatofRMB3424millionforwould2021and2022thefortotalrevenueprofitisexpectednettothedecreasethatbyexpectedaroundis20asitannouncementthetoAccording2022foraccountsmanagementOn13February2023ZhouHeiYareleasedaprofitwarningbasedonthepreliminaryassessmentofthecompanyZhouHeiYaWeightedAverageSimpleAverageWeilongDeliciousGlobalChinaFoodsNissinHealthHappinessZhouHeiYaInternationalVitasoyDaliFoodsGroupWantWantChinaUniTingyiMasterKongWHGroupChinaModernDairyChinaYouranDairyAusnutriaDairyChinaFeiheChinaMengniuDairyChinaResourcesBeerTsingtaoBreweryBudweiserAPACNongfuSpringTop20KongHongListedFoodandBeverageCompaniesCompanythe-PresidentChinalasSector-1FoodsInternationaltBloombergpagbyPeerscPeersdo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