首予“买入”：我们看好大唐新能源（以下简称“公司”），是因为公司有望突破影响其估值的成长性制约因素。我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为人民币0.265元（同比+47.2%）/ 0.316元（同比+19.2%）/ 0.480元（同比+51.9%）。基于9.2倍2023年PE，给予3.34港元目标价。
　　我们的差异化观点：市场认为，公司受到来自大唐集团内部定位不清及资产表现欠佳等因素制约，成长增速缓慢。但我们认为，“二次创业”改革为公司打破集团内部制约以获得更好的成长性提供了条件，而风场改造作为双重提升公司装机量及资产表现的选项亦渐行渐近。
　　有望打破成长性制约：我们看到，集团层面制约公司成长性的因素在“二次创业”推动下出现缓解——“二次创业”是大唐集团进行的一项前所未有的改革，旨在重塑集团内部治理来实现加速发展以支持中国双碳目标。我们认为，公司近期与大唐新疆成立合资公司，可表明公司在集团内部定位越发清晰，而公司2021年以来加快的项目配额获取速度，也支持我们成长性制约因素出现缓解的观点。同时，随着公司越来越多风电步入可改造年限，公司盈利画像将迎来根本性变化。公司资产效率历年来受相对较高的老旧风场比例拖累，预计公司到2025年将有约4.0吉瓦风电运行超过15年。平均来看，老旧风场改造可提高装机量至原来的两倍、发电量至原来的三倍。
　　催化剂：强劲的装机量增长、公司在集团内定位更为清晰、可再生能源补贴回收速度加快。
　　主要风险：项目开展延迟、原材料价格高于预期、极端天气。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitlePeterShao邵俊樨究CompanyReportDatangRenewable01798HK85225095464EquityResearch公司报告大唐新能源01798HKpetershaogtjascomhk23February2023OnTableSTrackummaryToBreakThroughGrowthConstraintsInitiateWithBuy有望突破成长性制约首予买入InitiatewithBuyWearepositiveonChinaDatangCorporationRenewable公PowerDTRortheCompanyastheCompanyisontracktobreakthroughtheRatingTableRankBuy司growthconstraintsthathavelongweighedonitsvaluationWeforecastgrowingInitial2022-2024EPSofRMB0265472yoyRMB0316192yoyRMB0480报519yoyrespectivelyWesetourTPatHK334basedon92x2023PER评级买入首次覆盖告WherewedifferThemarketgenerallyexpectsDTRtohavelacklustergrowthdueCompanyReporttoseveralconstraintsnotablyunclearpositioningwithinChinaDatangCorporation6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK334CDCortheGroupandundesirableassetperformanceWeontheotherhandseeDTRasbetterpositionedunderSecondaryEntrepreneurshiptobreakthroughthegroup-levelconstraintsforgrowthwhilewindfarmrepoweringhasShareprice股价HK2760becomeincreasinglyfeasiblefortheCompanytobothunlockcapacitygrowthandturnaroundass告BetterpositionedtobreakthroughgrowthconstraintsWeseeeasingStockperformance证股价表现报constraintsforgrowthatthegroupleveldrivenbySecondaryEntrepreneurship券anunprecedentedreformcarriedoutbyCDCtoreshapetheGroupsgovernanceTableQuotePic40change究andpavewayforaccelerateddevelopmentinsupportofChinasdualcarbongoal30研WebelievetheJVformedrecentlybetweenDTRandDatangXinjiangshowed研20究increasingclarityonDTRspositioningwithintheGroupwhileDTRsfasterspeed10券inobtainingdevelopmentquotasince2021isalsosupportiveofourviewofeasing报growthconstraintsMeanwhilewithmorewindcapacitiesofDTRreachingtheage0告证feasibleforrepoweringtheCompanysearningprofileissetforafundamental10EquityResearchReportchangeArelativelyhighproportionofoldwindfarmhaslongdraggedDTRsasset20efficiencyandtheCompanyisexpectedtohavearound40GWofwindcapacities30agedover15yearsby2025Windrepoweringonaveragecanmorethandouble40thegenerationcapacityandtriplethepoweroutputofarepoweredsite50TabFeb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23CatalystsStronginstalledcapacitygrowthmoreclarityonDTRspositioningHSIDTRleIwithintheGroupandacceleratedcollectionofrenewablesubsidiesnfo1RisksDelayinprojectroll-outhigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostsandChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Yextremeweatherconditions能股价变动1个月3个月1年首予买入我们看好大唐新能源以下简称公司是因为公司有望突破影响其估值的Abs3419004源成长性制约因素我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为人民币0265元同比4720316元绝对变动ReltoHSIndex运同比1920480元同比519基于92倍2023年PE给予334港元目标价11128143相对恒指变动AvgSharepriceHK营我们的差异化观点市场认为公司受到来自大唐集团内部定位不清及资产表现欠佳等因素制约272425平均股价港元行成长增速缓慢但我们认为二次创业改革为公司打破集团内部制约以获得更好的成长性提SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational业供了条件而风场改造作为双重提升公司装机量及资产表现的选项亦渐行渐近有望打破成长性制约我们看到集团层面制约公司成长性的因素在二次创业推动下出现缓解二次创业是大唐集团进行的一项前所未有的改革旨在重塑集团内部治理来实现加速EnergySectorOperations发展以支持中国双碳目标我们认为公司近期与大唐新疆成立合资公司可表明公司在集团内部定位越发清晰而公司2021年以来加快的项目配额获取速度也支持我们成长性制约因素出现缓解的观点同时随着公司越来越多风电步入可改造年限公司盈利画像将迎来根本性变化公司资产效率历年来受相对较高的老旧风场比例拖累预计公司到2025年将有约40吉瓦风电运行超过15年平均来看老旧风场改造可提高装机量至原来的两倍发电量至原来的三倍Tab催化剂强劲的装机量增长公司在集团内定位更为清晰可再生能源补贴回收速度加快leI主要风险项目开展延迟原材料价格高于预期极端天气nfo2YTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB大2020A93721187012711217716201400301368唐2021A116251831018041714017751400301271新2022F12040245602654729020101200301386能2023F13954286303161927622961000301392源2024F184644058048051950274609003013121TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m72737Majorshareholder大股东ChinaDatangCorp656MarketcapHKm市值HKm200754Freefloat自由流通比率344个月平均成交股数净负债股东资金DatangRenewable01798HKDatang01798Renewable3monthaveragevol3000207819FY23NetgearingFY23246852WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK35901750FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元334SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HK1raMthgiRelbaTCONTENTSCompanyOverview3AWindPowerPioneerinChinasThreeNorthernAreas3Strongtrackrecordofdeliveringefficiencyimprovement423February2023TheBottleneckProblemsWeighingonGrowth5TheinternalconstraintswithinChinaDatang5Performancedraggedbyhigherproportionofoldwindfarms6OnTrackforaStrongerTurnaround7EstablishingaNewParadigmviaSecondaryEntrepreneurship7Windfarmrepoweringasagamechanger2raMthgiRelb8aTOverlookedbeneficiaryofsolarPVcostreduction10EarningsEstimates11ValuationCatalystsandRisks1201798HK大唐新能源DatangRenewableReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKCompanyOverview1raMthgiRelbaTAWindPowerPioneerinChinasThreeNorthernAreasFoundedin2004ChinaDatangCorporationRenewablePowerDTRortheCompanyisamongChinasearliestrenewablesfirmsaswellasthecountrys2ndlargestwindfarmoperatorbyinstalledcapacityTheCompanywentpublicinHongKongin2010andiscontrolledbyChinaDatangCorporationCDCortheGrouponeofChinaslargestfivepowergroupsAsat30Jun2022DTRsconsolidatedinstalledcapacityreached13177MWofwhich12097MW918was23February2023windpowerand107582wassolarpowerThemajorityofDTRspowerplantsarebasedintheThreeNorthernAreasieNorthNortheastandNorthwestChinawherethereareabundantwindandsolarresourcesFigure-1DTRsconsolidatedinstalledcapacityFigure-2GeographicalBreakdownofDTRsinstalledwindcapacityWindPVGasyoyRHS1001400013078131773090220213122305525127927125510758012000510751053257097611000088268967560849822320552raMthgiRelbaT5174508000147174407871578074972974511171721600011998120973095338647878710204000834510200050ConsolidatedConsolidatedinstalledcapacityMW201720182019202020211H2200ThreeNorthernAreasNonThreeNothernAreas2016201720182019202020211H22SourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3DTRsownershipstructureasat30Jun202201798HKDatangJilinDatangCorporationHoldersofHShares82457373439大唐新能源ChinaDatangCorporationRenewablePowerCoLimitedDatangRenewableSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-4DTRswindfarminChifengInnerMongoliaReportSourceChinaDatangSustainabilityReport2018GuotaiJunanInternationalCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKStrongtrackrecordofdeliveringefficiencyimprovement1raMthgiRelbaTThechallengebroughtbyseverewindcurtailmentinChinasThreeNorthernAreasWindcurtailmentfirstbecamesevereinChinain2010asthecountryswindpowercapacitystartedtorampupBetween2011and2017thecountrysaveragewindcurtailmentrategenerallystayedatabove10andthecurtailmentissueswereparticularlyacuteinChinasThreeNorthernAreaswhereDTRswindpowerhadamajoritypresenceAgainstthisbackdropDTRswindcurtailmentratiorangedfrom149to219between2013and2016whileutilisationhourscontinuedtodeclineduringthesameperiod23February2023DTRhasmanagedtodeliverconsiderableefficiencyimprovementoverthepastFacingthecurtailmentchallengeDTRhasimplementedanumberofmeasurestoenhanceassetefficiencynotably1carryingoutthesocalledwholeprocessmanagementofpowerproductioninvolvingreal-timemonitoringofpowergenerationandrefinedmanagementofutilisationhour2deployingprojectsoutsideThreeNorthernAreasorinThreeNorthernAreaswherelargetransmissionchannelswereinplaceorunderconstructionand3diversifyingintosolarpowerbusinessThesemeasurestogetherwithChinasongoingeffortinboostingrenewablesconsumptionhaveledtoaremarkableefficiencygainFrom2016to2021DTRswindcurtailmentratioimprovedconsiderablyfrom219to37whiletheCompanysutilisationhoursincreasednearlyeveryyearfrom1745hoursto2266hoursDTRsROAhasalsoshownanimprovingtrend2raMthgiRelbaTDTRhasdeliveredsteadyearningsgrowthDTRsshareholdersprofitgrewfromRMB198mnin2016toRMB1831mnin2021ataCAGRof560drivenbyboththeefficiencygainasmentionedaboveandagrowinginstalledcapacityfrom8498MWto13078MWduringthesameperiodCAGR90Figure-5DTRslargepresenceinThreeNorthernFigure-6DTRhasdeliveredsteadyearningsgrowthAreasledtoabove-national-avgwindcurtailment50RMBmn200018451581800164013818311600351251271414001201798HK3010212002511871010001145201039817117080015162660072812034大唐新能源10107157400473807054035200231198000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021201620172018201920202021DTRNationalaverageInnerMongoliaShareholdersprofitNetprofitmarginRHSHeilongjiangJilinGansuSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalDatangRenewableFigure-7DTRsawimprovingutilisationhoursFigure-8DTRsROAshowedimprovingtrend25Hours192400202266172200213421621420961520641220002002195110190510180018031752174517530416000503140000200-031200201320142015201620172018201920202021201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-05SourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of14RMBmn2000181581800161381831160012512714140010212120011871010001145103988006600728344004200219800201620172018201920202021ShareholdersprofitNetprofitmarginRHSTablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKTheBottleneckProblemsWeighingonGrowth1raMthgiRelbaTTheinternalconstraintswithinChinaDatangSeveralinternalconstraintshavelongplaguedChinaDatangleadingtounderperformancevspeersonmultiplefrontspleaseseeFigures2-7andrepresentingasignificantchallengefortheGrouptodelivertherequiredtransformationamidChinasenergytransitionInanarticlepublishedinState-OwnedAssetsReportinJuly2022ChinaDatangChairmanMrZOULeisummarisedtheinternalconstraintsasthefollowing1unclearboundariesoffunctionsrights23February2023andresponsibilitiesamongdifferentlegalentitieswithintheGroup2alackofmarket-orientedincentivesandinnovationcapability3structuralissuesrelatedtobusinesssegmentsand4alackofrefinedcorporationandprojectmanagementFigure-9RevenuecomparisonofChinaslargestfiveFigure-10NetprofitcomparisonofChinaslargestfivepowergeneratinggroupspowergeneratinggroupsRMBbnRMBbn80070700606005040500302raMthgiRelbaT40020300102000100-10201720182019202020210-2020172018201920202021-30ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaHuanengGroupChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaHuanengGroupStatePowerInvestmentChinaHuadianCorpStatePowerInvestmentChinaHuadianCorpChinaDatangCorpChinaDatangCorpSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-11NetprofitmargincomparisonofChinasFigure-12DebttoequityratiocomparisonofChinas01798HKlargestfivepowergeneratinggroupslargestfivepowergeneratinggroups1309080大唐新能源38070201720182019202020213060-250-2040-7-7030DatangRenewable20-12-12020172018201920202021ChinaHuanengGroupStatePowerInvestmentChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaHuanengGroupChinaHuadianCorpChinaDatangCorpStatePowerInvestmentChinaHuadianCorpChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaDatangCorpSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-13InstalledcapacitycomparisonofChinasFigure-14NewenergycapacityasaoftotalcapacitylargestfivepowergeneratinggroupsofChinaslargestfivepowergeneratinggroupsGW24300222502020018150161001450Report120102017201820192020202120172018201920202021ChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaHuanengGroupChinaEnergyInvestmentCorpChinaHuanengGroupCompanyStatePowerInvestmentChinaHuadianCorpStatePowerInvestmentChinaHuadianCorpChinaDatangCorpChinaDatangCorpSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKThepotentialimpactonDTRthegroup-levelconstraintsassummarisedbyCDCChairmanMrZOULeicouldleadtoa1raMthgiRelbaTnumberofnegativeresultsonDTRincluding1lesssupportfromitsparentcompanyingeneralcomparedwiththeflagshipnewenergysubsidiariesoftheothermajorpowergroupsinChina2higherfinancingcostsascreditorsviewCDCinalessfavourablelightand3slowergrowthlessfavourabledevelopmentprospectInparticularandmorespecificallyontheimpactongrowthwebelievetheunclearboundariesoffunctionsrightsandresponsibilitiesamongdifferententitieswithinCDCrepresentobstaclesforDTRsprojectdevelopmentastheytendtocomplicateinternalprocessesprovideinsufficientincentivesandleadtounnecessaryinternalcompetitionTheseunclearboundariesarealsobelievedtohavedelayedthepotentialcross-listingofDTRonChinasA-sharemarketsakeymeasuretofinanceDTRsgrowthambitionforthe14thFiveYearPlan23February2023FYPperiodFigure-15DTRsinstalledwindcapacitygrowthlaggedChinaLongyuanPowersbetween2010and2021MW2500023668200001500011998100002raMthgiRelbaT6556500040280DTRChinaLongyuanPower20102021SourceTheRespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalPerformancedraggedbyhigherproportionofoldwindfarmsWhilewindpowerpioneerscertainlyenjoyfirst-moveradvantageeginsiteselectiontheirassetqualitycouldbelowerthan01798HKthatofnewcomersduetohigherproportionofoldwindfarmsChinaswindfarmsagedover10yearsgenerallysufferfromanumberoftechnologicallimitationsincludingsmallercapacityforasingleturbinelessadvancedcontrolsystemsandmorefrequentneedformaintenanceAsoneoftheearliestwindpowerfirmsDTRcurrentlyhasaround18GWinwind大唐新能源capacityreaching15yearsofoperatinglifeaccountingforabout135ofDTRstotalgenerationcapacityhigherthanLongyuanPowers104andbytheendof2025thisfigurewillreacharound40GWDraggedbyhigherproportionofoldwindfarmsDTRhaslongunderperformedpeersthroughvariousindicatorssuchasutilisationhoursandROAFigure-16ComparisonofwindpowerutilisationhoursFigure-17ComparisonofROAbetweenDTRandDatangRenewablebetweenDTRandselectedpeersselectedpeers8hours250072400623002200521004200031900180021700116001500020172018201920202021201320142015201620172018201920202021-1DTRLongyuanPowerCGNNewEnergyChinaPowerInternationalDevelopmentLongyuanPowerCGNNewEnergyDTRChinaResourcesPowerNationalavgSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceTherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKOnTrackforaStrongerTurnaround1raMthgiRelbaTEstablishingaNewParadigmviaSecondaryEntrepreneurshipUnprecedentedreformundernewmanagementSince2021underthenewmanagementledbyChairmanMrZOULeiChinaDatanghasinitiatedagroup-widereformlabeledSecondaryEntrepreneurshiptotackletheinternalconstraintsasmentionedaboveSuchreformisunprecedentedinthesensethatitspecificallyrequiresCDCtoreseteveryaspectofitscorporategovernanceifnecessarysothattheGroupcanovercomeinertiapushforwarddeeperSOEreformand23February2023achieveaccelerateddevelopmentinsupportofChinasdualcarbongoalWeidentifiedthefollowingmeasurestakenbyCDCunderSecondaryEntrepreneurshiptotackletheabove-mentionedinternalconstraintsbasedonjournalsarticlesandnewspublishedbytheGroupCDCispushingforamorestringentrule-basedasopposedtoruleofmancorporategovernancetoavoidblurredboundariesoffunctionsrightsandresponsibilitiesamongdifferententitieswithintheGroupwiththeboundariesfurtherclarifiedCDCisputtingintoplacemechanismstoincentivisesubsidiariestoexpandmarketshareandcreateincrementalprofitmeanwhiletopreventshort-termismandexcessiverisk-takingCDCfurtherspecifieditsinvestmentcriteriabyissuingRegulationonInvestmentofMid-to-Large-SizedInfrastructureProject中国大唐大中型基建项目投资决策管理办法in2021andisdevelopingamore2raMthgiRelbaTstringentpost-investmentmanagementsystemMorespecificallyatDTRwehaveobservedtwopositivechangessinceSecondaryEntrepreneurshipMoreclarityinDTRspositioningwithinChinaDatangWeseethejointventureagreemententeredintobetweenDTRandDatangXinjiangon28Dec2022asmajorprogressmadeintermsofclarifyingtheboundariesoffunctionsrightsandresponsibilitiesamongdifferententitieswithinChinaDatangTheagreementgivesDTRaccesstolargebasenewenergyprojectsinXinjiangwhereDTRhasyettohaveapresenceandsignalsthesupportfromtheGroupforDTRsprojectexpansion01798HKUnprecedentedgrowthtargetandacceleratedprojectdevelopmentDTRsdevelopmentstrategyduringthe13thFYPperiodwasfeaturedbythevalue-basedefficiency-orientedprinciplewhichwasmoreaboutprojectoptimisationinsteadofprojectexpansionNowwiththehelpofSecondaryEntrepreneurshiptotackletheinternalchallengesDTR大唐新能源isbetterpositionedtotargetformorerapidgrowthIn3Q21DTRsmanagementguidednewinstalledcapacitytargetof28GWbetween2021and2025anamountthatcannearlytripleDTRsexistingcapacityTherehassubsequentlybeenasignofacceleratedprojectdevelopmentIn2021DTRsapprovedandfilednewenergyprojectsgrewby1088yoyto4230MWreachingahistorichighin1H22approvedandfiledprojectsfurthergrewby881yoyto2634MWDatangRenewableFigure-18OwnershipstructureoftheJVbetweenDTRFigure-19DTRtargets28GWofadditionalinstalledandDatangXinjiangcapacityofnewenergyduringthe14thFYPperiodChinaDatangCorporationWindPVGasyoyRHS450005040230656110040000545178533500040353000030DTRDatangXinjiang250002520000881220150001223013078976151584988826896752237110000105310755551052231117114786471741749533119988787500083455DatangHamiNewEnergyConsolidatedinstalledcapacityMW00Report2016201720182019202020212025FSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage7of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKWindfarmrepoweringasagamechanger1raMthgiRelbaTWeseelargerupsideforDTRtoimproveitsperformanceviarepoweringcomparedwithpeersgiventheCompanyshigherproportionofoldwindfarmsHerewedefinewindrepoweringastheprocessofreplacingoldergenerallysmallerwindturbineswithnewergenerallylargerandmoreefficientdesignsatagivenwindfarmSuchprocessinvolvesreplacingeitherpartoralloftheexistingwindturbinesBelowweexplaininmoredetailhowrepoweringoffersDTRapowerfulandeconomicallyviablewaytoaccelerategrowthenhanceassetqualityandimproveprofitability23February2023RepoweringcanmorethandoublethegenerationcapacityofDTRswindfarmsaged15yearsoraboveThewindturbinesdeployedbyearlierwindfarmsinChinagenerallyhaveamuchsmallercapacitycomparedwithnewermodelsPriorto2010theaveragenameplatecapacityofonshorewindturbinesinChinawaslessthan15MWwhilethisfiguregrewto31MWin2021thankstotechnologicaladvancementsCurrentlythemostadvancedwindturbinesinChinacanhaveanameplatecapacityashighas8MWAsaresultrepoweringintheorycanmorethandoublethegenerationcapacityofrepoweredsitesinChinaTakeChinaDatangChongqingswindrepoweringprojectinSiyanpingChongqing大唐重庆四眼坪风电场改扩建项目forexampletheprojectwentintooperationin2009andusedtohaveatotalgenerationcapacityof4675MWRepowering2raMthgiRelbaTofthesitetookaround6monthsfromMay2021toDec2021andtherepoweredsitenowhasatotalgenerationcapacityof1026MWmorethandoublingthecapacityofthesitepriortorepoweringThecapacitygainwasprimarilyachievedthroughreplacing26turbinesatanaveragecapacityof085MWwith9turbinesat40MWeachand4turbinesat50MWeachIncountrieswithhigherpowersystemflexibilitythecapacitygaincanbeevenlargerforexampletheWindplanGroenprojectintheDutchProvinceofFlevolandusedtohave98turbineswithatotalnameplatecapacityof168MWandfollowingrepoweringtheprojectnowhas90morepowerfulturbineswithatotalnameplatecapacityof500MWtriplingthetotalcapacitypriortorepoweringSinceDTRwillhavearound40GWofwindpowerreachingtheageof15yearsoraboveby2025webelievetheCompanyhasthepotentialtoachieveatleast40GWcapacitygainthroughrepowering01798HKFigure-20SiyanpingWindFarmafterrepowering大唐新能源DatangRenewableSourceCINNCNGuotaiJunanInternationalMoreefficientturbineshigherutilisationhoursStudiesgenerallysuggestthatrepoweringcanincreasethecapacityfactorofawindturbineiecapacityxutlisationhourscapacityx365daysx24hoursby7-10leadingtohigherturbineefficiencyorutlisationhoursThisisReportbecausedifferentturbineshavedifferentcapabilitiestocaptureandconvertwindenergyintorotationaltorquethatdrivesthegeneratorsThankstotechnologicaladvancementsnewerturbinemodelscancapturemoreenergymostlythroughlargerrotorsandhigherhugheightsCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage8of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKTriplepoweroutput1raMthgiRelbaTStudiesgenerallysuggestthatwindrepoweringonaveragecantriplethepoweroutputofarepoweredsitewhilereducingthenumberofwindturbinesbyaquarterthankstobothenlargedgenerationcapacityandhigherturbineefficiencyAccordingtoareportpublishedinChinaElectricPowerNewspaperonMay2022theannualpoweroutputoftherepoweredSiyanpingWindFarmasmentionedearlierisexpectedtoreacharound250GWhabout29timeshigherthantheannualoutputpriortorepoweringhttpwwwhydropowerorgcnshowNewsDetailaspnsId33513Table-1RepoweringisexpectedtotripletheannualpoweroutputatSiyanpingWindFarmthroughenlarged23February2023generationcapacityandhigherturbineefficiencyPriortorepowering1Afterrepowering1InstalledgenerationcapacityMW46751026AnnualpoweroutputexpectedannualpoweroutputGWh8747250Impliedutilisationhour18712437SourceChinaElectricPowerNewspaperGuotaiJunanInternationalNote1DataasreportedbyChinaElectricPowerNewspaperinMay2022LowerOpExRepoweringcanreduceoperationandmaintenancecostsbydeployingnewermorereliableturbinesaswellasby2raMthgiRelbaTreducingthenumberofturbinesdeployedBesidesoldturbinesveryoftenrequirehighermaintenancecostsduetotheunavailabilityofpartsBetterreturnprofileofrepoweringvsgreenfieldprojectsThereasonisprimarilytwo-foldfirstrepoweredwindfarmsareusuallyearlierprojectsthatgottooccupysiteswithbetterwindresourcessecondrepoweringcanachievefurthercost-savingbyusingexistinglandlicensesgridconnectionsandotherinfrastructuresAccordingtofieldresearchconductedbyLantzetalin2013theattractivenessofarepoweringprojectcomparedtogreenfieldprojectscanvarydependingontheageoftheunderlyingsiteaswellastheavailabilityofdesirablewindresourcesforacomparablegreenfieldprojectTheirresearchshowsthattheaverageNPVgainfrom01798HKrepoweringtheirselectedwindfarmsaged20-25yearsintheofWestCoastoftheUnitedStatesisover50higherthanthatbroughtbygreenfieldprojectsofsimilarscaleFigure-21WindrepoweringleadstohigherincrementalNPVcomparedtogreenfieldprojectsofsimilarsizein大唐新能源theWestCoastoftheUnitedStates80706050DatangRenewable403020ChangeinNPVContinuingvsto10OperateExistingWindUSFarmmn0GreenfieldRepowerSourceWindPowerProjectRepoweringFinancialFeasibilityDecisionDriversandSupplyChainEffectsLantzetal2013PolicysupportforwindrepoweringRepoweringcouldbealessstraightforwardprocessthanitmaysoundTheobstaclesforrepoweringcanbebothlegalegresistanceputupbythelocalcommunityandtechnicalegincompatiblewiththeplanningoflocalgridsItisthushelpfultohavegovernmentpoliciesinsupportofrepoweringSince2021ChinahasrampedupitssupportforwindrepoweringatboththeprovincialandnationallevelsBreakthroughwasmadeinDec2021whentheChinasNEAissuedtheAdministrativeMeasuresfortheRenovationUpgradeandDecommissionofWindPowerFarmsConsultationPaperReportThispolicydocumentaimstofacilitaterepoweringbystipulatingthat1windfarmsaged20yearswithaccumulatedpoweroutputlessthantheoriginallyestimatedtotaloutputfortheirentireusefullivescanstillenjoysubsidy2therelevantgovernmentagenciesshouldsimplytheapprovalprocessand3gridcompaniesshouldactivelycooperatewithrepoweringprojectsandCompanytakeintoaccountrepoweringforfuturebusinessplanningSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage9of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKTable-2Chinahasanumberofpoliciesinplacetofastforwardwindrepowering1raMthgiRelbaTDateDocumentNameRelevantContentSupporttheretrofitsforexistingwindturbinesForprojectsalreadyapprovedbytheenergyThePlanforWindPowerProjectConstructioninauthoritiesandconnectedtothegridformanyyearstheprojectownerscanapplyforone-offMay-20LiaoningProvince辽宁省风电项目建设方案dismantlingofalloldunitsandupgradetheoldturbinesattheoriginalsiteaccordingtotheservicelifequalityefficiencysafetyandeconomicsoftheunitsNoticeonCarryingoutthePilotProjectofReplacingBasicprincipleReplacesmallwithlargewindturbinesLarge-capacity30MWand23February2023theLargewiththeSmallforOldWindFarmsRetrofittechnologicallyadvancedturbinesshouldbeselectedtoreplacesmall-capacitywindAug-21inNingxia关于开展宁夏老旧风场以大代小更turbinestomaximizetheutilizationoflandandwindresourcesMaingoalBy2025to新试点的通知repower2GWofoldwindfarmsexpandingtheircapacitybyover2GWNoticeontheConstructionPlanofWindPowerTechnologyDevelopmentProjectsin2021ReleasedTocarryoutretrofitandcapacityexpansionforwindfarmsagedover5yearsinDatongCitiyOct-21bytheenergybureausofShanxi山西能源局引发关ShuozhouCitiyandXinzhouCitywithoutmodifyingtheexistingpowergridcapacity于2021年风电技改扩容项目建设方案的通知Encouragetherepoweringofwindfarmsaged15yearssimplifytheapprovalprocessforAdministrativeMeasuresfortheRenovationrepoweringwindfarmslessthan20yearswithaccumulatedpoweroutputlessthanthefiledDec-21UpgradeandDecommissionofWindPowerFarmstotaloutputfortheirentirelifecyclescanstillenjoysubsidygridcompaniesshouldactively2raMthgiRelbaT风电场改造升级和退役管理办法cooperatewithrepoweringprojectsandtakeinaccountrepoweringinfutureplanningTostartthetransformationandupgradingofoldwindpowerprojectsfocusingonthetransformationandupgradingofwindturbineunitswithasingleunitcapacityoflessthan1514thFive-YearPlanforResponsetoClimateChangeMWencourageenterprisestoimplementthelargereplacingsmallupgradeofoldwindJan-22inNingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion宁夏回族自治farmsinHelanMountainTaiyangMountainXiangshanandotherregionsandimproving区应对气候变化十四五规划theefficiencyofhigh-qualitywindenergyresourcesutilizationDuringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod45GWofwindpowerprojectswillbeconstructedThe14thFive-YearPlanforRenewableEnergyCarryoutlarge-scalewindfarmrepoweringpromotetheorderlyretirementofwindturbinesMar-22DevelopmentinInnerMongoliaAutonomousRegionthathavereachedtheirdesginedlivesandacceleratetheeliminationofoutdatedcapacity01798HK内蒙古自治区十四五可再生能源发展规划promotetherecyclingofbladesenginesandtowerframesSourceTheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionNationalEnergyAdministrationGuotaiJunanInternational大唐新能源OverlookedbeneficiaryofsolarPVcostreductionSolarPVcostshavelikelypeakedsinceOct2022andareexpectedtoenteradownwardtrajectoryamidtheexpectedramp-upofupstreamsupplySolarmoduleswitnessedpricehikessince2021duetosupplyshortageofpolysiliconButDatangRenewableheadinginto2023ourA-sharenewenergyteamexpectsglobalsupplyofpolysilicontoreach156mntonsfortheyearcorrespondingtorawmaterialsfor644GWofsolarmoduleshigherthantheglobaldemandof486GWduringtheyearGiventheexpectedsupplyramp-upwebelievepolysiliconpriceshaveenteredadownwardtrajectoryandthefallingpricesshouldbepassedthroughalongthevaluechainbenefitingdownstreampoweroperatorsOurA-shareutilityteamestimatesthatforeveryRMB01WdeclineinPVmodulecosttheIRRofasolarprojectwouldincreaseby05pptassumingutilisationhoursof1200WhilethemarketdigeststhedownwardtrendofsolarPVcostsDTRislikelyundertheradarofmanyinvestorsasamajorbeneficiaryThisisbecauseDTRistraditionallyrecognisedasaleadingwindpowerfirmwithlittleexposureinsolarpowerButinfactDTRplanstosignificantlyrampupitssolarbusinessaccordingtotheCompanysmanagementsolarpowercouldaccountfor60ofthenewlyaddedcapacityduringthe14thFYPperiodIn1H22DTRobtaineddevelopmentquotaof181GWinsolarpowerhigherthanthatof082GWinwindAssuchDTRisamajorbeneficiaryofsolarPVcostreductionespeciallyconsideringtheshortconstructioncycleofsolarprojectsReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage10of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKFigure-22PolysiliconpricesFigure-23Moduleprices1raMthgiRelbaT23February2023SourcePVInfolinkSourcePVInfolinkEarningsEstimatesWeforecast2022-2024EPSofRMB0265RMB0316RMB0480respectivelyOurprojectedearningsgrowthisprimarily2raMthgiRelbaTdrivenbyinstalledcapacitygrowthandimprovedassetefficiencyOurkeyassumptionsareasfollowsWeexpecttheCompanytoaddatotalof16GW70GW80GWofinstalledcapacityofnewenergyrespectivelyin2022-2024amongthetotalnumbersin2022-2024solarpowerwillaccountfor03GW40GW48GWrespectivelywhilewindpowerwillaccountfortherestWeexpectwindutilisationhourstobe2160hrs2200hrs2240hrsrespectivelyin2022-2024WeexpecttoseeimprovementinwindutilisationhoursdrivenbyrepoweringWeforecast2022-2024powergenerationof28787MWh34420MWh47008MWhrespectively01798HKInlinewithourprojectedcapacityexpansionweexpecttheCompanyscapextoamounttoRMB12bnRMB29bnRMB34bnrespectivelyin2022-2024Ourassumptionsfor2022-2024avgon-gridtariffsareRMB434MWhRMB421MWhandRMB408MWhrespectively大唐新能源InlinewithourprojectedcapacityexpansionweexpecttotaldebttoreachRMB60bnRMB81bnRMB102bnin2022-2024respectivelywithdebtassetratioremainingatareasonablelevelupfrom578in2022to661in2024Table-3Keyassumptions2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EConsolidatedinstalledcapacityMW1223013078146782167829678DatangRenewable-yoyMW2468849160070008000AmongwhichWind1117111998132981629819498-yoyMW1638827130030003200Solar105310751375537510175-yoyMW8302230040004800UtilisationhoursWind21622266216022002240-yoyhours981041064040Solar13101081125012501250-yoyhours12922916900PowergenerationMWh2117622926178431287870283442009247006771-yoy149236100196366CapexRMBmn1189510753120002900034000-yoyReportAverageon-gridTariffRMBMWh465461434421408-yoy07-08-60-30-30Totaldebt54326578766026380563102363CompanyDebtassetratio604584576632661SourceDTRGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage11of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKValuationCatalystsandRisks1raMthgiRelbaTWebelieveDTRisjustifiableat92x2023PEcorrespondingtoaTPofHK334DTRiscurrentlytradingat76x2023PEbasedonourforecastlowerthanthemarket-cap-weightedaverage2023PEof92xamongHK-listedrenewablesplayswhileleadingrenewablesplayssuchasChinaLongyuanPower00916HKandXinyiEnergyHoldings03868HKaretradingat96xand138x2023PErespectivelyGivenDTRisontracktobreakthroughthegrowthconstraintsthathavelongweighedonvaluationwebelieveahighermultipleisjustifiablefortheCompanyOurTPofHK334isbasedon92x2023PEimplyinga210upsidefromthecurrentshareprice23February2023CatalystStronginstalledcapacitygrowthmoreclarityonDTRspositioningwithinCDCacceleratedcollectionofrenewablesubsidiesandlower-than-expectedrawmaterialcostsRisksDelayinprojectroll-outsoaringrawmaterialcostsandextremeweatherconditionsTable-4PeersvaluationMarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearCompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceHKDmn21A22F23F24F21A22F23F24FChinaLongyuanPower00916HKHKD10881432201181319682111210092raMthgiRelbaTXinyiEnergyHoldings03868HKHKD2822098216315813811816151414ChinaSuntienGreenEnergy00956HKHKD364334325659524607060605CGNNewEnergyHoldings001811HKHKD292125298761564912111008SimpleAverage106102857411111009WeightedAverage111118917811111009SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteDataabstractedasat22Feb202301798HKSpecialthankstoSierraTangforhercontributiontothisreport大唐新能源DatangRenewableReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage12of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKFinancialStatementsandRatios1raMthgiRelbaTTableIncomeStatementIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalrevenue937211625120401395418464PPE64704702747709699700125587Otherincome300280246265276Intangibleassets39344034435354236660DEPNandamortisation38394445485953266876InterestsinassociatesandJVs990929929929929Staffcosts7681021105811861533Prepaymentsandotherreceivables29562302176817681768Repairsandmaintenance304507427495655Othernon-currentassets11016016016016023February2023Materialcosts66149153158163Totalnon-currentassets726947769984306107980135103Otheroperatingexpenses774121248210471385Operatingprofit39224571530760078129Cashcashequivalents30533120220415891935Inventories222124142142142Financecostsnet21002099204121992726Tradereceivables1240616471161491591115782ShareofresultsofassociatesandJVs579242935Prepayments14831629182418241824Otherscurrentassets5253565656Profitbeforetax18792462329138375437Totalcurrentassets1721521397203741952119738IncomeTax327376494575816Profitaftertax15532086279732614622Totalassets89909990971046801275001548422raMthgiRelbaTNon-controllinginterest366254341398564Short-termdebts1415512462127792027925279Shareholdersprofitloss11871831245628634058Tradeandotherpayables283370261261261Otherpayablesandaccruals716994029731988411698BasicEPS01270180026503160480Othercurrentliabilities131105138138138DilutedEPS01270180026503160480Totalcurrentliabilities2173722339229093056237376Long-termdebts4017245414474856028577085TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementOthernon-currentliabilities267203205205205Totalnon-currentliabilities4043945618476906049077290Yearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalliabilities01798HKProfitbeforetax1879246232913837543762176679577059991053114666DDA37484225463650866577Workingcapitaladjustments226433258653921942Totalshareholdersequity2403227208299173199635270Interestexpenses21472127206722182744Minorityinterest37003932416444524906大唐新能源Incometaxpaid326416462575816Totalequity2773331140340803644840176Others306929196221281Cashfromoperatingactivities54906002105941117816166TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosCapEx923882121200029000340002020A2021A2022F2023F2024FOthers25015000MarginsDatangRenewableCashfrominvestingactivities89888197120002900034000Operatingmargin418393441430440Netprofitmargin166179232234250Proceedsfromborrowingsnet5448734433872030021800Dividendpaid240767857894894ReturnRatiosInterestpaid20902021204121992726ROA1822272833Others802294000ROE68718692121Cashfromfinancingactivities303922634901720718180LiquidityleverageCashatbegofyear35173053312022041589Debtassetratio604584576632661Netchangesincash45967916615346Netgearing21332012194024682847Effectofforeignexchanges50000Interestcoverageratiox1921262730Cashatendofyear30533120220415891935SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage13of14TablePageHeaderDatangRenewable01798HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to523February2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT0219101798HKHKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearch大唐新能源Report6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDatangRenewableDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionReport2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage14of14