2023年1月房产销售价格显示了一些复苏苗头。根据国家统计局，2023年1月，一线城市的新房销售价格指数录得0.2%的环比增长，二线城市的新房销售价格指数录得0.1%的环比增长。未来一段时间，我们预计房地产企业经营状况和风险将明显好转，有利于经济企稳回升。
　　《商业银行资本管理办法》鼓励银行向实体经济配置资产，预计城商行将更加受益。根据新规，权重法有以下重要改动：（1）开发贷、票据和部分同业资产的风险权重上升；（2）投资级和中小企业贷款、零售贷款以及地方政府一般债的风险权重下降。新规发布对于中小企业信贷和零售贷款占比高、地方政府债券风险低的银行则构成利好。我们认为资本金相对紧张的城商行将更受益。
　　我们维持银行行业2023年“跑赢大市”投资评级。当前，在中国内地，政策方向进一步明确，宏观经济利好消息不断出现，有助于推动经济回暖、提振银行股投资信心。我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐。我们推荐招商银行（03968 HK）、邮储银行（01658 HK）。同时，我们亦推荐中银香港（02388 HK）、汇丰控股（00005 HK），其受益于美联储持续加息。
　　风险因素：经济下行超出预期；政策效果不及预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportBankingSectorRichardCao曹柱行业报告银行行业8675523976870zhucaogtjascomhk27February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapNewMeasuresfortheCapitalManagement行BenefitHigh-qualityCityBanksOutperform双周报新资本管理办法利好优质城商行跑赢大市业报ThehousingASPhasshowedsomeslightrecoveryinJanuary2023TableInvestInfo告AccordingtoNationalBureauofStatisticsthenew-homeASPintier-1citiesRatingOutperformSectorReportSectorrecorded02MoMgrowthinJanuary2023andthenew-homeASPintier-2Maintainedcitiesrecorded01MoMgrowthInthenearfutureweexpectthatoperatingconditionsandriskforrealestateenterpriseswillimprove评级跑赢大市维持outstandinglywhichwillbenefiteconomicstabilizationandrecovery2TheMeasuresfortheCapitalManagementofCommercialBanksencouragethebanksallocationofassetstorealeconomyandthecitySectorperformancebanksareexpectedtobenefitmoreAccordingtothenewregulationsthe行业表现weightedmethodhasthefollowingimportantchanges1Theriskweightsof100developmentloansbillsandsomeinterbankassetsincrease2therisk00weightsofinvestmentgradeandsmallandmedium-sizedenterpriseloans-100Jul-22Jan-23Jan-23Jun-22Jun-22Oct-22Apr-22Sep-22Sep-22Feb-22Feb-23Dec-22Aug-22Nov-22Mar-22May-22证retailloansandlocalgovernmentgeneralbondsdecreaseForthebanks-200告whosesmallandmedium-sizedenterpriseloansandretailloansaccountfor-300券ahighproportionandtheriskoflocalgovernmentbondsislowtheissuance-400研报ofthenewregulationsispositiveWethinkthecitybankswhosecapitalis-500relativelytightwillbenefitmore究究-600-700ResearchReport报研WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023AtHSIIndexIndexofmainlandlistedbanks告presentinmainlandChinathepolicydirectionisfurtherclearandfavorable券newsonthemacroeconomycontinuestoappearwhichwillhelppromotetheSourceBloombergEquityrecoveryoftheeconomyandboostthemarketsconfidenceonthebank证stocksWepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofYoYgrowthinbalanceofTSFandrealestatepoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceRMBloansisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommend社会融资及人民币贷款存量同比增速CMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeanwhilewealsorecommend130BOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUS125FederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikes120T115aRiskfactorsThedeclineintheeconomymaybebeyondexpectationsthe110resultsofpoliciesmaynotbeinline105b10095银l2023年1月房产销售价格显示了一些复苏苗头根据国家统计局2023年1月一线城90市的新房销售价格指数录得02的环比增长二线城市的新房销售价格指数录得01行e的环比增长未来一段时间我们预计房地产企业经营状况和风险将明显好转有利于经行BalanceofTSFYoYgrowht济企稳回升业BalanceofRMBloansYoYgrowthLSourcethePeoplesBankofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalBankingSector商业银行资本管理办法鼓励银行向实体经济配置资产预计城商行将更加受益根据e新规权重法有以下重要改动1开发贷票据和部分同业资产的风险权重上升2投资级和中小企业贷款零售贷款以及地方政府一般债的风险权重下降新规发布对于中f小企业信贷和零售贷款占比高地方政府债券风险低的银行则构成利好我们认为资本金t相对紧张的城商行将更受益M我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级当前在中国内地政策方向进一步a明确宏观经济利好消息不断出现有助于推动经济回暖提振银行股投资信心我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推r荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银g香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息i风险因素经济下行超出预期政策效果不及预期nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5SectorBankingMainlandgrowthinonfrompressureofmitigationtheandNIMof1Q2023inloansofstablewithslightdeclinein2023sectorbankingfutureneartheInlineinbaslicallywaswhichimprovedprofitnetingrowhandstablerelativelyppYoYwasNPLratio2022coverageendoftheatAsQoQbps3andofbalanceNPLsrecordedRMB30100mainBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionannouncedthemainregulaGrowhinnetprofitofthebankingsectorimprovedQoQin4Q22whichwasbaslicallyinlinerecoveryeconomicstabilizationandfuturesectorJaningrowthMoMinDec15ofthatthanhighermuchiswhichreached36ASPhasrecoveryinJan702023JanuaryinrecoveryslightsomeshowedhasASPhousingTherespectivelytherespectivelysecondgradenotdistinguishdoesbankinvestmentgradetgradeinvestmentandsmallandmediumdebtsubordinated150to100fromrisewillrequirementsprudentialincreaseweightnewtheUnder2024onimplementedofficiallybewillwhichRegulationsNewtheastoreferredhereinafterDraftBanksCommercialthemoreandbenefitCommissionRegulatorytoexpectedarebankscitytheandeconomyTtheChinesebankingChinesethesector1FigureheriskweightriskheeesrsoteaiaMngmnoCmecaBnsnorgteakloainofallocationbankstheencourageBanksCommercialofManagementCapitaltheforMeasuresheInternationalInternationalSource1000150020002500300035004000tscomparedwiththeendof2021Compared2021ofendthewithcomparedts-500cityhousingASPdataon1616ondataASPhousingcity004financialedin2022netprofitreachedRMB23trnup54YoY54uptrnRMB23reachedprofitnet2022inSewillbewillYoYexethtprtncniinadikoraettetrrssilmrvottnigywihilbenefitwillwhichoutstandinglyimprovewillenterprisesestaterealforriskandconditionsoperatingthatexpectwenoperatingoperatingninincomeandearnings2023ChinaBankingBankingChinaDec-18eRMBRMBtrnmethodhasthefollowingimportantchanges1TheriskweightistFirstFeb-19ofassetstotalofYoYgrowthandTotalassetstheApr-192onanoverallpositivetrendwithlikelymoresignsoffundamentalimprovementsinthefollowingmothsfollowingtheinfundamentalimprovementssignsofmorelikelywithpositivetrendoverallanonlassJun-191followsaswereindicatorsuaryiisexpectedtodeclinefurthergivenpolicyrelaxationpolicygivenfurtherdeclinetoexpectedisn2022thebankingsectorsNIMwas191down17bpsYoYand3bpsQoQbps3YoYandbps17dow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