研究报告全文：S0880512090001ANY447icLicCLFSACShuangyanminggtjascom38676036-globalizationglobalization-8621000729OWTPRMB1400OW0007293202thShareStrategyWeeklyTradeonReflationTradeWeeklyStrategyShare-GuangdongElectricPower000539OWTPRMB736OW000539PowerGuangdongElectricTPRMB1500OW688313ShijiaPhotonsABTNetworks688168OWTPRMB7472OW688168NetworksABTBreweryYanjingTPRMB4350601601OWInsuranceChinaPacificA12FebStocksHongKongStrategyMarketOverseasReportSpecialIPOMarketReportUpdateSecuritiesSectorMacroResearchDeResearchMacroHUANGYanmingHUANGSectorRatingsoftheofMonthRatingsSectorViewpointWeeklyStrategyMarketLatestReportsLatestTopRecommendationsTopFebruary20February本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准ContentsMorningBriefMarketResearchMorningBriefTopRecommendationsMacroResearchDe-globalizationGlobalizationandde-globalizationarecyclicalnotaone-waytripAfterthelate19thcenturytheworldwitnessedthreewavesofglobalizationaswellasthreewavesofde-globalizationDe-globalizationusuallyarisesfromtheaccumulationofglobalizationsinherentdefectsIthelatestageofglobalizationWeanticipatecurrentwaveofde-globalizationtolasttillaround2035duringwhichChinahasthreestrategicoptionsavailableasfollows1Decreasingitsdependenceonprimaryproductsimportsandbuildingexcessproductioncapacitiesofsomekeyindustries2IncreasingitsinvestmentinbasicRDandsubsidiesonthedemandside3PromotingtheuseofRenminbioverseasthroughBeltRoadInitiativeagainstfinancialwarfareA-ShareStrategyWeeklyTradeonReflationMarketcorrectionsarerealbutnothorribleWhenthemarketconsensusonthedescendingmacroriskshasbeenfullypricedinandwhenthereisabsenceofneweconomicstimuluspoliciesitisnaturalforthemarkettorunintoshort-termcorrectionsHoweveramarketcrashlikethecasein2022isunlikelytoappearin2023becausethegeneraldeclineofpandemiceconomicandpoliticaluncertaintiesandthegeneraltrendofeconomicrecoveryhavenotbeenreversedyetThereforeitisadvisabletomakeuseofmarketcorrectionstobuildpositionthistimeReflationiscomingnearNowthevaluationofShanghaiCompositeisclosetoitshistoricalaverageSofarA-sharemarkethasfullypricedintodecreaseofstockdiscountratesinceNovember2022andthemarketfocusisgoingtomoveontowardsthebusinessearningsoflistedcompaniesThereisgoodnewsatpresentincludingfasterincreaseofproductioncapacityutilizationrecoveryofsecondhandhomesalesandpricesandreboundofconsumerexpendituresandbusinesstravelsTherecoveryoftheprofitmarginofmidstreamanddownstreamindustriescomparedtotheslowgrowthofdemandandsupplyduetothepolicytighteningpandemicimpactandslackbusinessclimateinthepasttwoyearswillfuelthereflationinChinaAsforsectorallocationwesuggestthreepointsasfollows1Recoveryofbusinessactivitiesandconsumptionsecond-tierliquorairlineshotelhomeapplianceshouseholdsuppliesandbuildingmaterialssectors2Post-pandemicpricehikeschemicalcoaloilshippingandpapersectors3RiseofAIandMRTMTandmachinerysectorsAsforthematicinvestmentandindividualstocksweprefer1high-endequipmentZoomlion000157ChangshengBearings300718GoodWe688390general-purposeautomationNeway688697OKE688308Yizumi300415smartpowergridWillfar688100powergridITWillfar688100airlineshotelAirChina601111JinJiangHotels6007542buildingmaterialsOrientalYuhong00227128Kibing601636industrialmetalsChihongZiGe600497homeappliancesHisense000921Zbom603801oilshippingCOSCOShippingEnergyTransportation6000263investmentthemesVRrobotChina-madebrandsandSOEreformsRisksbigger-than-expectedpandemicimpactsglobalgeopoliticaluncertaintiesOverseasMarketStrategyHongKongStocksFeb12LikeitalwaysdidinthefirstquarterofayearHongKongstockmarketwentdownrecentlyHSIhaslost66sinceJan27thbacktothelevelin2022-yearendCOVID-19pandemicUSdollarinteresthikeandgeopoliticalconflictsarethemajorcauseofthemarketsetbackthistimeAsforsectorallocationwecontinuetostressontheturnaroundofdomesticeconomyIndetailweprefer1thelow-valuationrealestateindustrialchainrealestatefinancialandmaterialssectors2therecoveryofdiscretionaryconsumergoodssalesautomobileandconsumerelectronicsectors3thereverseofoverseasmonetaryliquidityinnovativedrugssemiconductorandgoldsectorsIPOMarketSpecialReportOnFeb172023CSRCExchangesandNEEQpromulgateddetailedrulesandregulationsontheall-aroundimplementationofIPOregistrationsystemTheadjustmentofcallbackrateintheofflineMainBoardIPOissuancemayslightlyincreasethewinningrateofIPOsubscriptionlotteryUnderdesirablecircumstancetheIPOsubscriptionreturnofatypeABaccountofRMB500mninsizeisestimatedat322in2023andthatoftypeCaccountis195SecuritiesSectorUpdateReportTheall-aroundimplementationofIPOregistrationreformswillincreasetheproportionofdirectfinancingandbenefittheinvestmentbankingandothercorporatefinancingbusinessesofsecuritiescompaniesOffeaturedcompanieswepreferthosewithstrongerprofessionalabilitiesandadvantagesincorporatefinancingservicesincludingSinolinkSecurities600109SichuanShuangma000935CITICSecurities600030andCICC3908HKABTNetworks688168OWTPRMB7472RatingOWPrvNATPRMB7472PrvNAMPRMB4128Mkt-CapRMB3141mnBeingaleadingupstreamcybersecuritycompanytheCompanyenjoysthegeneralrecoveryofindustrialclimateandisabletorealizefaster-than-expectedprofitgrowthin2023WeforecasttheCompanys2022-2024EPSofRMB004199and262andsuggesttargetpriceofRMB74722023PSof9xOverweightratingYanjingBrewery000729OWTPRMB1400RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB1400PrvNAMPRMB1334Mkt-CapRMB37599mnBasedontheCompanyslatestbusinessresultsforecastsweraiseourforecastsoftheCompanys2022EPStoRMB013001andmaintainourforecastsofthe38Companys2023and2024EPSofRMB021and027Inviewoftherecoveryofscenariosandtheriseofsectorvaluationandwithreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanieswesuggest2023EVEBITDAof18xandraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB14OverweightratingmaintainedLatestReportsChinaPacificInsurance601601OWTPRMB4350RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB4350PrvRMB4350MPRMB2712Mkt-CapRMB260904mnOnlowstatisticalbasistheCompanysNBVgrowthmayreach72in2023H1thefirstpositivegrowthsince2019WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompanys2022-2024EPSofRMB261301and363andmaintaintargetpriceofRMB4350andOverweightratingGuangdongElectricPower000539OWTPRMB736RatingOWPrvNATPRMB736PrvNAMPRMB626Mkt-CapRMB32867mnTakingintoallthefactorsincludingtheprogressofpowergenerationcapacityinstallationtheriseoflong-termcontractelectricitypricesinGuangdongProvinceandthefluctuationsofcoalpricesweforecasttheCompanys2022-2024EPSofRMB-054029and049BasedonbothPEandPBvaluationmethodswesuggesttargetpriceofRMB736andOverweightratingShijiaPhotons688313OWTPRMB1500RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB1500PrvRMB1600MPRMB1138Mkt-CapRMB5221mnTheCompanys2022Q4resultswerelowerthanexpectationmainlybecausethechangeofdomesticpandemiccontrolpolicyinDecember2022disruptedtheCompanysproductionWhentheCompanysconstantcapitalexpendituresinNorthAmericaarealsotakenintoaccountwelowerourforecastsoftheCompanys2022-2024netprofittoRMB66mn-3913113mn-2302and152mn-1653andcorrespondingEPStoRMB014-3770025-2292and033-1723WithreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanieswesuggestPEof60xandlowerthecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB15Overweightratingmaintained48SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateFebruary19th2023A-ShareStrategyWeeklyTradeonReflationPleaseseeTopRecommendationsabove58GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticeandtheinvestorshallpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdateormodificationTheinvestmentsandservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbeappropriateforcertainclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvicetoclientsInanycircumstancestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentrecommendationsforanypersonInanycircumstancesGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatedinstitutionsshallnotpromiseinvestorsthattheywillmakeprofitsshallnotshareinvestmentgainswithinvestorsandshallnotbeliableforanylosscausedbyanypersonsuseofanycontentinthisreportInvestorsareremindedthatanyinvestmentdecisionsmadebythemarenotrelatedtoGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoritsaffiliatesGuotaiJunanusesinformationwallstocontroltheflowofinformationbetweenoneormorefieldsdepartmentsorrelatedinstitutionswithinGuotaiJunanThereforeinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothatwherepermittedbylawGuotaiJunananditssubordinateaffiliatesmayholdsecuritiesoroptionsissuedbycompaniesmentionedinthereportandconducttradingofthosesecuritiesoroptionsandmayprovideortrytoprovideservicessuchasinvestmentbankingfinancialadvisingorfinancialproductstothosecompaniesWherepermittedbylawemployeesofGuotaiJunanmayserveasdirectorsofcompaniesmentionedinthisreportThestockmarketisriskyandinvestmentneedstobecautiousInvestorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisionsnorshouldtheyconsiderthisreporttobeasubstitutefortheirownjudgmentBeforedecidingtoinvestifnecessaryinvestorsmustconsultprofessionalsandmakeprudentdecisionsThisreportisnotintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoisnotallowedtosendordistributethisreportunderlocallawsorregulatoryrulesnorisitintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoseavailabilityoruseofthisreportwouldcauseGuotaiJunantoviolateorbesubjecttolocallawsorregulatoryrulesThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbyGuotaiJunanWithoutwrittenpermissionnoinstitutionorindividualmayreproducecopypublishorquoteinanyformIfitisquotedorpublishedwiththeconsentofGuotaiJunanitmustbeusedwithinthepermittedscopeandthesourcemustbeindicatedasGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchorGuotaiJunanHongKongResearchandthereportmustnotbequoteddeletedormodifiedinanywaythatiscontrarytotheoriginalintentionGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedshallbeliabletoGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdforthecontentanddistributionofresearchreportsIfanorganizationotherthanGuotaiJunanhereinafterreferredtoastheOrganizationsendsthisreportitshallbesolelyresponsibleforsuchsendingInvestorswhoobtainthisreportthroughthismeansshouldcontacttheOrganizationontheirowntorequestmoredetailedinformationortofurthertradeinthesecuritiesreferredtointhisreportThisreportshallnotconstituteinvestmentadviceprovidedbyGuotaiJunantotheclientsoftheOrganizationnorshallGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatesbeliableforanylossesincurredbytheclientsoftheOrganizationasaresultoftheuseofthisreportorthecontentscontainedinthereport68ThefollowingimportantstatementsareapplicabletoresearchreportspublishedinHongKongThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanHongKongGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunanHongKonggroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanHongKongThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunanHongKongdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKChinaGrandPharmaceuticalandHealthcare00512HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithVobileGroup03738HKTencent00700HKAlibaba09988HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKSinotrans-Hshares00598HKBankofCommunications-Hshares03328HKJDcom09618HKBIDU-SW09888HKKingsoft03888HKNWS00659HKSenseTime-W00020HKChinaNonferrousMining01258HKJoySpreader06988HKGuangzhouAutomobile-Hshares02238HKChinaLesso02128HKKWGGroup01813HKCIFIHoldingsGroup00884HKZhenroProperties06158HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCountryGarden02007HKAgileGroup03383HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKLoganGroup03380HKSUNAC01918HKNewWorldDevelopment00017HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKFOSUNINTL00656HKCITS01880HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKCARSGEN02171HKChinaMinshengBankingCorp-Hshares01988HKGCLNewEnergy00451HKChowTaiFookJewellery01929HKIRICOGroupNewEnergy00438HKFinancialStreetProperty01502HKGOMEElectricalAppliances00493HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKAoyuanHealthyLifeGroup03662HKJinkeServices09666HKA-LIVING03319HKBankofGansu02139HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKBinhaiInvestment02886HKChinaSouthCity01668HKChinaRisunGroup01907HKYEAHKA09923HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKZhongliangHoldings02772HKSihuanPharmaceutical00460HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKDFZQ-Hshares03958HKCGNPower-Hshares01816HKCGNMeiyaPower01811HKCGNMining01164HKJiangsuExpressway00177HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKChervon02285HKXPENG09868HKNAYUKI02150HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKCIFIESService01995HKSinopecKantons00934HKSINOPECEngineering-Hshares02386HKSPC00338HKChinaPetroleumChemical-Hshares00386HKPOPMART09992HKCHENMING01812HKLeeManPaper02314HKSMOORE06969HKZGCTecLeasing01601HKKANZHUNLIMITEDBZUSTencentMusicEntertainmentGroupTMEUSDiDiDIDIUSBilibiliIncBILIUSZhihuZHUSNIONIOUSJDcomJDUSFutuFUTUUSSinopecSNPUSBTL603596SHSUPCON688777SHSINOTRANS601598SHMACALLINE601828SHGACGROUP601238SHHUNDSUN600570SHCHINASUNTIENGREENENERGY600956SHCCB601939SHFANGDACARBON600516SHCITS601888SHLUANEED601699SHCMB600036SHINDUSTRIALBANK601166SHBANKOFCHONGQING601963SHORIENTSECURITIES600958SHJIANGSUEXPRESS600377SHBANKCOMM601328SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHBBMG601992SHSPC600688SHSINOPECCORP600028SHTHUNDERSOFT300496SZYUNDACORP002120SZGXHT002074SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZJINKE000656SZYCC000878SZCGN003816SZEASTMONEY300059SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZLBG002601SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofTencent00700HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKAlibaba09988HKNetease09999HKJDcom09618HKSMIC00981HKAlibabaHealth00241HKBIDU-SW09888HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-Hshares00788HKGreatWallMotor-Hshares02333HKAIA01299HKSandsChina01928HKAACTechnologiesHoldings02018HKSunnyOpticalTechnology02382HKSinopharmGroup-Hshares01099HKCNOOC00883HKWuXiBiologics02269HKMeituan-W03690HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-Hshares06030HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKBYDCompany-Hshares01211HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKIndustrialandCommercialBankofChina-Hshares01398HKBOCHongKong02388HKBankofChina-Hshares03988HKHSBC00005HKPingAnInsurance-Hshares02318HKChinaLifeInsurance-H78shares02628HKLenovo00992HKChinaMobile-Hshares00941HKHongKongExchangesandClearing00388HKGalaxyEntertainment00027HKSUNAC01918HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentIndexover15suggestionsCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengInvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCompanyOverweightIndexbetween5and15ratingandsectorratingRatingIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengThemarketperformancewithinthe12NeutralIndexbetween-5and5monthsafterthepublicationofthereportisDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengconsideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkUnderweightIndexover5TheincreaseanddecreaseoftheSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangcompanysstockpriceorindustryindexOverweightSengIndexwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HanginthesameperiodUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdJinganDistrictShanghai20004186213867-6666Shanghai18FSouthBuildingFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialBeijing10003286108393-9888StreetXichengDistrictBeijing27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRoadFutianShenzhen518026867552397-6888DistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2023CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved88