研究报告全文：ResearchEquityMarketStrategy9January2023AndyHuang黄凯鸿JakeWang汪昌江86755239767028675523976675kaihonghuanggtjascomhkchangjiangwanggtjascomhkConsumptionVouchersTheRemedytoImproveConsumptionDemandSummaryOptimizingquarantinemeasuresandeasingpropertypolicyarethebeginningofrecoveryin2023consumptionwillbeoneofthemaindriversofsustainedgrowthofthedomesticeconomyWithexpectationofStrategyReportdownwardpressureonoverseasdemandin2023andlimitedinvestmentconsumptionwillbeoneofthemainenginesdrivingtherecoveryofthedomesticeconomyfromthesupplysidetothedemandsideTheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilrecentlyissuedTheOutlineoftheStrategicPlanforExpandingDomesticDemand2022-2035Follow-uppoliciesshouldexceedexpectationsandwillmainlyaddressmeasurestoimproveconsumerspendingpowerwithtoolssuchastaxandfeecutsemploymentprotectionandpromotionoftheconstructionoflow-incomehousingSincethestartoftheCovidpandemictherehavebeentwoperiodsoflargerandmorefrequentpro-consumptionpolicieswhichhaveresultedinsignificantshort-termimprovementsinretailsalesSince2020therehavebeentwolarge-scalepromotionperiodsfromMarchtoJune2020andApriltoJuly2022withthescalerangingfromRMB400milliontoRMB122billionmainlyinthefieldsofclothingdailynecessitiessportsand告entertainmentproductshomeappliancesautomobilesandsoon报ResearchReportFortheHongKongstockmarketofflineservicesandretailindustrieswilloutperformtheHangSengIndex究aftereachoftheannouncementof9roundsoflarge-scalepro-consumptionpoliciesduring2020and2022Equity研moreovercertainindustrieswhichreceivedconsumptionpolicysupporthadshort-termexcessreturnsafter券thepolicyannouncementBasedonthe9roundsoflarge-scalepro-consumptionpoliciessince2020wefindthat1证Aftereachofthe9roundsofpro-consumptionpolicieswerelaunchedtheretailindustryandofflineservices-relatedindustriesoutperformedtheHangSengIndexandtheseindustriesarethegeneralvictorsofpro-consumptionpolicies2Forthespecificsectorssupportedbyeachroundofpro-consumptionpoliciesthecorrespondingindustryindexcanTaoutperformtheHangSengIndexbyabout5percentagepointswithin10tradingdaysaftertheannouncementofpro-consumptionpoliciesHoweverthelong-termperformanceoftheindexstillneedsfurthersupportfromindustryblfundamentalssuchasconsumerelectronicshomeappliancesautomobilesandsemiconductors3AfterSeptembere2022theaviationsectoroutperformedtheHangSengIndexafterintroductionofconsumptionpromotionpolicyandthereasonisthatbusinesstravelincreaseswhenthepandemicisundercontrolLBasedontheexpectedreturnofthecurrentindustryandpolicydirectionautomobilesconsumerelectronicsMarketStrategyeretailandhouseholdappliancesindustriesarerecommendedComparedwithindexlevelsofsectorsbeforethefCovidpandemicinFebruary2022andattheendofJuneindustryindexesareexpectedtohavehigherreturnsIfmoretconsumptionstimuluspoliciesareintroducedinthefutureindustryindexesareexpectedtooutperformtheHangSengMIndexInadditionifthescaleofconsumptionpromotionpolicyincreasesinthefuturestrongerperformancefromaindustriesislikelyrgRiskfactors1Thestrengthofdomesticsupportpolicycannotmeetexpectations2OverseasgeopoliticalconflictsinSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of22SeSourceSourcee350400450500550600650thShortelas2011Windt-pag2012interestratetermsuggestsPMIspreadthatGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiefo2013itsmaydowntrendcontinue14MonthsAheadGlobalShort-termInterestRateSpreadRHSRevertedJPMorganGlobalManufacturingPMIrdisclaimer20142015olwnscineileiwnaayeitrclaktperformanceprogramsvoucherconsumptionmarketofintroductionhistoricaltheafteranalyzeandbeforeandreviewwillwesectionsfollowingtheInsubsidiesandvouchersconsumptionincludingconsumptionpromoteandofseriesaintroducedgovernmentsstancepolicydomesticrelaxationsignificantRecentlyhaveseenChinainmeasurespreventionepidemic2016maintheofonebedriverswillconsumptionprivatespendinggovernmentinimprovementlimitedthelimitmaywhichpersisttolikelyismagnitudetaxationlandinreductionsandcutsfeecontinuedforroomstillistheremajorwithHowevercomparingweakturnsdemandexternalwhendemandconsumptionandinvestmentdomesticPoliciesStimulusreppreviousourinmentionedAsrecoveryturninwhichexportsperformancedomesticexpectConsumptionisoneofthemaindrivingforcesforConsumptionRevival1consumptionofroundmeasurespromotionnewthegivenmarketstockKongHongtheinopportunitiesinvestmentidentify2017DomesticRecoveryMomentumtotoMomentumRecoveryDomesticof2018thatsustainablerecoverysustainable2023inof2019downwardpressurefromoverseasdemanddemandoverseasfrompressuredownwardfiscalexpansionin2023ThereforebasedonexpectedsetbacksinexportsandandexportsinsetbacksexpectedonbasedTherefore2023inexpansionfiscal202020212022increasetoChinah250200150100050000-050-100-150sshiftasSourceSource350400450500550600650edWeakeningtoPMIglobalisdomesticonweighsupporti2011RegionalrecoveryeconomictowardsmoreWindgovernmentgovernment2012EnsuingonDependMaySustainabilityMarketortwGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiill2013becomeanencumbranceonChinasChinasonanencumbrancebecomeve2014CumulativeExportYoYRHSJPMorganGlobalManufacturingPMIpoliciestostabilizetheeconomythestabilizetopoliciesdomesticeconomicgrow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