研究报告全文：ResearchMacroeconomicMacroTableTitleWeekly5January2023HaoZhouBillySun8522509758285225092603haozhougtjascomhkbillysungtjascomhkTableSummaryThePBoCHasRoomtoEaseChartinFocusWithaccommodativepolicyChinasTSFstockgrowthwillreboundgraduallyin2023MacroWeeklySourceWindGuotaiJunanInternationalIn2022whiletheoverallstanceofmonetarypolicyremainsaccommodativecreditextensionwashighlyvolatileFrequentCovidlockdownssignificantlyimpactedeconomicactivityandassociatedcreditdemandWithcumulativeeasingloanratesnotablyfellin2022HoweverlowermortgageEquityResearchReportratesfailedtoreversethedowntrendinpropertysalesandsubduedcreditdemandduetotheCovidimpactandtheresultingpessimisticexpectationsThestatementannouncedinthefourthquarter2022monetarypolicycommitteemeetingvowedtomaintaindecentgrowthoftotalcreditfromenhancingstablecreditgrowthpreviouslySuchchangeoftoneclearlypointstoanupsidebiasofaggregatefinancinggrowthin2023ThenewstatementmadeitclearthatpolicysupportwillbedeliverednotonlytosupportcompletionofunfinishedprojectsbutalsothefurtherdevelopmentofthepropertysectorthroughfinancingmeasuresHencethecloudoverthepropertymarketwillbelargelydispelledandthefocuswillbeshiftedtothedemandsideMoreroomforpolicyratereductionsin2023butthemagnitudemayberelativelysmallWeexpecta20bpcuttoLPRin2023withone10bpcutinQ1andanotherinQ3Since2Q22thecontributionofstructuralmonetarypolicytobroad-basedcreditexpansionhasbeenprominentLookingaheadstructuralmonetarypolicyinstrumentswillbestrengthenedtostabilizegrowthespeciallyinstabilizingthepropertycycleandpromotinginfrastructureinvestmentDatareviewOilpricesstartedtoturndownafterreachingshort-termhighswhilecokingcoalpricecontinuedthedownwardtrendoverthepastfewweeksAsforironorepricespriceshavereboundedforfourconsecutiveweeksMeanwhilebothironorestocksandcoppercathodepricedecreasedinthefirstweekofJanuaryDataandeventcalendarOnthedatafrontEUunemploymentrateforNovember2022willbereleasedfirstnextweekLateronaslewofconsumptionandretaildatafromtheUSandAustraliawillarriveInflationrateforbothChinaandtheUSwillbepublishedChinanewyuanloanswillalsobeannouncednextweekApartfromtheseseveralUSFederalReserveFedofficialswillspeakattheendofnextweekSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of11SourceWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiSourceWinddeleveragingFigure1113151719579SeFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssold30citiesRHScities30soldbuildingscommercialofspaceFlooreDec-18th-eFeb-192lasApr-19StJun-19pagoftnessinoftnessAug-19ofeOct-19foDec-19thehouseholdsectorrdisclaimerFeb-20Apr-20Jun-20theAug-20housingsectorresultsectorhousingOct-20Dec-20SourceFigureyearMtheshrinktoactivitycreditextensionwasOverCIsomeextentoffsetsomethepositiveeffectsbankerssalespressurebprateinterestaverageboostCorrespondinglyhelptosignificantlymoreratesmortgageforbenchmarktheLPR5theloweredbankcentralChinesetheparticularIngrowthcreditrevivetoLPRrateTheWith2022n101106111116121126131136Feb-21ovidedium96sApr-21lowerthanthatin1Q22inthatthanlowerPBoCPBoCcumulativeeasingloancumulativeeasinghaverateshpsyahltevrlsacomntrplcremainpolicymonetaryofstanceoverallthewhileyearpasttheJun-21duetotodueWindflare-YoYgrowthofhouseholdsectorleveragesectorhouseholdofgrowthYoYand1-Aug-21surveysentimentindicatorsaremorepessimisticthantheywerein2016termsomehowOct-21TSFfinancingsocialtotalChinasChinastotalGuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalJunanGuotaihas2021-02-Dec-21associatedupstheCovidimpactandresultingresultingandimpactCovidthePirFeb-222021-03andconductedconductedafewcutstoApr-22aacsetrslignatdeleveragingfastinresultingsheetbalanceIncrementalTSFRHS2021-04egtdvrglaitrsrtsaealnnotablyfallenhaveratesinterestloanaverageweightedJun-22longedHoweverAug-22highly2021-05forpersonalhousingloansforexampledroppedto434in3Q221153Q22in434todroppedexampleforloanshousingpersonalforRMBbnOct-22infastin-creditdemcredittermloansloanstermDec-222021-06socialfinancing05001000150020002500volatile2021-07andthetheandlowermortgagerateslowerfailedmortgagetoreversethedowntrend2021-08SourceWindSourceWindbuildingswithrelationshippositiveFigure100120140-20204060802021-09and0Fto-200requentClowestlowest2021-10fromhouseholdsclearlyillustrateclearlyhouseholdsThecorrelationbetweenhousingsoldandthemediumtolongmediumtheandsoldhousingbetweencorrelationTheSthe-3oftnessininoftness2021-11wasreserverequirementratioRRRandpolicyeasingnotablyMGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotailevel2021-12pessimistic0ediumovid2022-01highlyhwdfutaigrwhrnamidtrendgrowthfluctuatingashowedsincesinceth2022-02lockdownfallenin2022infallen-termhouseholdsloansfortermeterm200volatile2022-03hassectorhousing2010whichwhich2010expectationTSFstockTSFYoYgrowth2022-04and2022-05s400pinsignificantlyimpactedeconomicerformanceerformance2022-06long2022dofs2022-07suchtrendoverthepastpasttheovertrendsuchhas-600emloanstermhhueodsectorhouseholdtheAccordingtothePBoCthetoAccording2022-08alleviateed2022-09householdscausedosndemandhousingofaccommodativeThe2022-10800theRMBbncommercial-arWeeklyMacrod20192022-11inrepaymentloanloanprimePagePageR07737y01368x01000200030004000500060007000haveweighted-property1000andto2-yearofofa112nigraMelbaT5January2023SourceWindSourceWindrateFigureSourceWindrespectivelybpsby25Figure10010511011512012513080859095455667788Se2020-12WeightedaverageloanratesoffinancialinstitutionsfinancialofratesloanaverageWeightedSep-14esthDec-14fe--eMar-1546lllasJun-15Sep-15graduallyutoDuetTheGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaipagDec-15Mar-16RRRdepositoryfinanciallargeinstitutionsRRRandsmalldepositorymediumfinancialinstitutionse2021-06Jun-16PBfoSep-16rDec-16disclaimeroiyeasingpolicyoMar-17CJun-17Sep-17loweredDec-17Mar-18Jun-182021-12Sep-18gradually2023inFigurechangegrowthdecentmaintainathighlighted2023ofyeartheForASourceWindGuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalJunanGuotaiSourceWind110100102104106108Dec-18ccommodativemonetaryccommodativestancepolicy98Mar-19RRRthetweightedaverageaverageweightedheGeneralloansGeneralJun-19Sep-19-orhquarterfourth8Dec-19inMar-202022-06toneclearlypointstoofupsidebiasJun-20ihcomdtvplchnTFtcgotwlreboundwillgrowthstockTSFChinaspolicyaccommodativeWithGenerallySep-20twiceDec-20PMar-21IndividualhousingloanshousingIndividualJun-21Sep-21Dec-212022inmonetarypolicystancewillremainrelaxedandafewpointsneedtobetoneedpointsfewaandrelaxedremainwillstancepolicymonetaryspeakingmonetarypolicywillfocusonthedemandsidesidedemandtheonfocuswillpolicymonetaryspeakingMar-2220222022-12inJun-22Sep-22loan434465ActualvalueActualtotalcreditfromcredittotaloeayoiyomtemeetingcommitteepolicymonetarythantheywereintheyinthan2016wereFigureSourceWindloanincludingFigureSourceWindSourceWind141924293439444954592530354045501520Dec-11rateJun-12--751YLPR1YDec-12LPRwasadjustedLPRwasdownThetherateofratetheStoGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGJun-13enhancingstablecreditstableenhancingnietniaosrmrpessimisticmoreareindicatorsentimentuotaiJunanInternationalJunanuotaiaggregatefinancinggrowth2023incontinuein2023Dec-13FuturehousepriceexpectationproportionofriseIndexfutureofconfidenceincomeJun-14PBDec-14oCJun-15MLFandOMOandMLF7-dayOMO7-dayuteoiyaewci2022intwiceratepolicythecutDec-15-2019Jun-16Dec-16ForcastvalueForcastJun-17TDec-17growthJun-18ettmnvowstatementheandDec-18MLF1YJun-19thebenchmarktheDec-19previouslySuchJun-20asDec-20WeeklyMacroPagePagesuggestedJun-21LPR5YDec-21ed3Jun-22ofofDec-2211to2nigraMelbaT5January2023SeethelastpagefordisclaimersequentiallyFigureSourceFigure2023sidecloudbutalsnotdeliveredwillbesupportpolicythatclearhightheinacquisitionsandmergersandoutlinedtonethemeantimetheInincreditimprovementexpansionyearnexttoaheadLookinganothercutsratepolicyforroomslowingconstraintsJulysincethere2023InMoreSourceincludingbasedrestrictionspropertySince1041091141191241291349499-financingreasonablethemeetingstabilityensuringthetoComparedenterprisesqualityThenoverroomforpolicyreductionsrateonWindtheothe--109pacepaceinterestoftierinQ3theatodoasoundjobsoundadotopurchasePBoCPBoCcitybeginningAofslewhave-GuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalJunanGuotai1thethepropertyand2022-01citiesmediumfurtherdevelopmentofOntheotherhandothertheOn-ogotofgrowthYoYtoimprovPensurefundsintroducedOn-beenwillcity2022-02InternationalJunanGuotaioenltoicoetdeflationtocloserisinflationcoreandapproach29ofbemoreroomforpolicyeasingOneasingpolicyforroommorebe2022-03toadjustedproperty-propertyterm2022existinge2022-04AugustloanRMBin2023inActualvalueActualmarketwillbelargelydispelledandfocuswillbeshiftedrates2022-05deliveryandW200creditofofhousingloanssetforthefirstlimitloweredthemortgagerates29OnSeptemberinensuringthedeliveryofbuildingsprotectingpeopleslivelihoodpeoplesprotectingbuildingsofdeliverytheensuringinforeseee2022-06Thebnhousinghousing-overseascommercialcommercialpersonalrelatedrelatedlongthe2022-07thelinesspecialmediumRMBPBoCrpryetripoighassettheimprovingsectorpropertya2022-08-thepropertysectorsustainedrecoverysustainedtermloansareexpectedtokeepkeeptoexpectedareloanstermpropertyto202022-09depreciationpoliciesin2023bpcuttoLPRin2023withone10onewith2023inLPRtocutbpandTheThePBoC2022-10-includingissuancedecidedInstitutionAssociationOntermwith2022-118petrlosoundalsosectoronlyonlyreviousNovemberwasbutreal2022-1299byandtheUStheenteringintorecessiontoInvestorstoofestatesupportwhichtheandOnprivate2023-01estatepressureFinancialsupportintroducedintroducedthesupport11sosothethlongstatementthe2023-02-marketthecalledenterprisescontainsNovemberenterprisesmeasuresroughCBIRCinterestratecutshavehavecutsrateinterestmagnitudein2023-03NAFMIINationalonehandonedemaMarket-propertysaleswillfacilitatwillsalespropertyemloanstermbondForcastvalueForcastcompletionofunfinishedprojectsunfinishedofcompletion16will2023-04jointly16-financingfinancingmeasuresHencethepointforsthend2023-05inin2022befinancialoiieshcnrlbankcentraltheaspositivethehnwttmnmditmadestatementnewtheissuedfacilitateandcommunicatePresidentPresidentOnPBoCplan2023-06industrytheofrealeasemayrelativelybesmallCPIhasbeenweakeningbeenhasCPI14improvingsequentiallyininsequentiallyimproving2023-07strategicallyNovemberdialoguesnlaiiyttsofstatusliabilityandd2023-08heldiscamepropertyfinancingreopeningthirdOnnextyearnextandconstructivelyabpcutinQ1andQ1incutbp2023-0928meetinginxetdtoexpectedouttoNovemberChineseathisthis2023-10arrowlessbidarWeeklyMacrochannelsthedevelopersUSofPagePagetoto2023-11promotingopens107demandequitywiththewithobvious2023-12thethefor4eofoftheup112nigraMelbaT5January2023SeethelastpagefordisclaimersinceSeptembersinceFiguregrowthareasandforsmallsupportincreasebeshouldTheEconomicCentral2022ConferenceCEWCWorktoRMB630bnamountingSeptembersincemonthsconsecutivethreeforPSLlendingsupplementarysupportreductionsbeen2Q22SincethemonetaryStructuralpolicInternationalJunanGuotaiSourceWindFigureInternationalJunanGuotaiSourceWindpecial100012002702752802852902953003053106008002004000prominent--Looking1211especiallyinespeciallystabilizingthepropertyandpromotingcycleinfrastructureinvestmentloansRMBbnRMBChinasgrowthinwillbottomout2015-05mlmneiainimplementedThePBoCrecordedThenetaincreasePSLofforconsecutivethreemonthst2015-09opreventcreditorisksandensurethedeliveryofprojectshousingPforaheadTheofbalancethePSL2016-01contributionAingrnprainnlogisticsandtransportation2016-05policystructuralofseriesMLFinjectedvolumeMLFinjected2016-09tool2017-01structuralIadtotadditionInyofs2017-05bestrengthenedinwill2023microenterprisesandsciencemicro2017-09andprecisetructuralmonetarypolicy2018-01policmonetary2018-052018-09eBCeoddntincreasenetarecordedPBoChe2019-01mannersolidtoolshastoolsthefirstthequarter2019-05isrmnswillinstrumentsy2019-09renewalequipmentTherateinterestforthePSL2020-01proposedbeenMLFmaturityvolumematurityMLF2020-05tongieiacainstitutionsfinancialguideandbroad2020-09launched2021-01andothertechnologyinnovation2023that-2021-05basedcreditexpansionbeadcand2021-09prudentbyenhanced2022-012022-05thearbonmonetaryPBoC2022-09RMBtnarWeeklyMacroinostabilizeto05001000150020002500300035004000PagePageemissionpledgedsuchassuchpolicypolicy5ofofhas11toto2nigraMelbaT5January2023SourceWindSourceWindscenariosFigure2030405060708090SeeRMBtrnRMB22Q1th-e14NewRMBloansRMBNew83lastGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaipag22Q2hnRBloansRMBChinas52efor22Q3disclaimer43Pessimism22Q4E2525tr100105orfinancsocialoftermsGenerallyupdateddataNoteInternationalJunanGuotaiSourcePBoCFigurewithspecialDrthankswithtoChenforQiuyuhercontributionn23Q1EStagingtoolsLong-termtoolsClassificationmorethanofincreasean86uloudrthreeunderoutlook-1323Q2ENeutralspeakingtheeffectsthespeakingTheThestructuralmonetaryinapplied2022toolspolicy57thatPin2023inequipmentrenewalSpeciallendingfortransportationandlogisticsSpeciallendingforelderlycareservicesSpeciallendingforinclusiveinnovationLendingforSci-TechefficientuseofcoalSpeciallendingforcleanandinstrumentsCarbonreductionsupportloansSupplementalmortgageloansupportinstrumentsInclusivemicroandsmallRediscountingrefinancingMicroandsmallbusinessAgriculturalrefinancing23Q2Easofasin2022533Q22aroundOptimismingToolnameTool23Q4EIntermsofcreditoftermsnweexpectthatexpectwe31RMBfromfromSourceWindSourceWindFigure1011121314tr35567894individualentrepreneursandmedium-sizedenterprisesManufacturingsocialservicessmallexpressenterprisesandmediumsizedlogisticsincludingRoadcargotransportoperatorssmallJiangxipilotZhejiangJiangsuHenanHebeiInclusionprojectsfortheelderlyinSci-TechinnovationenterprisesreservesdevelopmentandutilizationandCleanandefficientuseofcoalcoalreductiontechnologiesCleanenergyenergysavingandcarboncorridorkeywaterconservancyprojectsShackreformundergroundpipeInclusivemicroandsmallbusinessenterprisesAgriculture-relatedmicroandprivateMicroprivateenterprisesAgriculture-relatedmonetarypolicywillbeenhancedinthecomingyearcomingtheinenhancedbewillpolicymonetaryRMBtrnRMB22Q1nIncrementalTSF-15121121incrementalTSLincrementalvr02teYothe2022overnewGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiChinasTSF22Q2SupportareaRMBloansRMB909022Q36868outlookthreeunder22Q4EPessimismwillincreasebyincreasewillwillbebewillY5252growthrateofofrategrowth23Q1ERMBRMBtnRMBQuota1281281640200100200300800705760225tr225404023Q2E-Neutralabout100100nImplementationaboutabout23Q2EscenarioswhichprogressRMBarWeeklyMacro7676PagePageOptimism100023Q4E365tr365RMB897990600807691683227155265willbebewill66161ofof2311nIn2nigraMelbaT5January2023SourceSourceTableSeeDownstreamMidstreamCategoryUpstreamth-Wind1elasWeeklysectorsindustrialreviewofdatatpagefoChinaTotalInventoryofProductsMajorSteelRateUtilizationFurnaceCapacityTangshanBlastPlantSteelRateUtilizationTangshanCapacityPlantSteelRebarSteelPriceFuturesCopperCathodePriceFuturesChinaIronStocksOrePortIronOreIndexCompositeMyspicCIOPIImportedIronOreIronCIOPIDomesticOreChinaIronIndexOreCIOPIPriceChinaCokingCoalTotalStocksNanhuaCokingCoalDatedPriceBrentWTICrudePriceSpotCrudeBrentFuturesWTICrudeFuturesShanghaiRidershipMetroTrafficBeijingCongestionIndexof30FloorSoldSpaceCommercialCitiesBuildingsLandTransactionArea100CitiesThermalCoalPriceFuturesChinaIndexCementPriceRateUtilizationCapacityCokingEnterprisesrdisclaimerreviewDataepidemicrelativelytrafficmetrokepteffectholidayvolumewhileJanuaryofsectordownstreamTheandpricescementcoalutilizationrrebarsteelfuturespTpricecathodeandcopperdecreasedinweekthefirstofJanuarypriceswThemidstreamhesectorheupstreamsecthilecokingcokinghilecoalpricecIndexpricespricesasituationtoglocallthoughPatehavehaveandandblastfurnacecapacityutilizationrinBeijingthecausedoveralltrafficrisingcongestionindexstarttohreboundedforfourconsecutiveweeksconsecutivefourforreboundedoruigaewstliaoclaigageadnpassengerRegardingrangeoscillatinganinstillwassalesousingriceTheofpricehavehavedeclinedtoextentsomeCovidontinuandcokingenterprisescapacityutilizationrAsforAsThepropertymarkethasimprovedsignificantlyinthefitheinsignificantlyimprovedhasmarketpropertyTheedepidemicthethethethedownwardtrendofthefewpastweeks-649-101-470-232-115-150Dec-28307268138301136715872229-32-57-07-24-070477455539midstreammidstreamsectorthereweremarginalimprovementoilYoYChgstartedtoturndownafterreachingshortubekiShanghaiinoutbreaks-723-127-428-224-110-156461126132153516672335-75-14-17-54Jan-421153262322826unaffected8483049336Dec-1466510133862970988614801225111513441225437420313699114762532704836771827773857ateOtetehnhstablizingthehandothertheOnremainedstableOntheotherhand346601022847447Dec-216576013400259214661226111113561226460616303962124802571746803782822783849MeanwhilebothironorestocksoreironbothMeanwhileLevelhave395101022846625Dec-286645013339346414331247113713631247492717194037170817571746812795833790851atewhilebothcapacityenudethesubduedbeen3229043781645201318827679210140812771164139812775040Jan-431054077199819564751812757821728888AsAsforironorearWeeklyMacro-termhighsPagePageWeeklyTrendsrstweekrst7ofofs11in2nigraMelbaT5January2023SeethelastpagefordisclaimerSourceSourceTableweekfromApartthesesnextannouncedbealsowillYuanloansNewChinapublishedbewillUStheandChinabothonfrontdatatheOneventandDatacalendarEventaDataDataDataDataslewof-W2inDataandcalendareventDataddUSFedBosticSpeechFedCookSpeechFedBarkinSpeechFedBarkinFedCookSpeechSpeechFedBosticUSInflationUSCoreRateInflationDECRateYoYChinaInflationNewDECloansyuanPPIRateofBalanceTradeAustraliaNOVNOVMoMSalesRetailAustraliaJapanHouseholdNOVSpendingYoYConsumerUSCreditChangeInventoriesWholesaleNOVMoMUnemploymentRateNOVEUcPonsumptionanddretailEUunemploymentrateforNovemberforrateunemploymentEUDataandeventcalendar9-13JanuarycalendareventandDataeveralFedofficialswillatntheendofspeakWednesday111WednesdayThursday112ataTuesday110TuesdayFriday113FridayMon19MonfromtheUSandAustraliawillarrivewillbereleasedfirstreleasedbeextweeknextInflationrateforarWeeklyMacroweekPagePageLater8ofof112nigraMelbaT5January2023ASourceSourceWindChartSourceWindChartSourceWindChartppendixSe1012141610121416-6-4-210121416-6-4-2-6-4-2024680246802468201720162016eth---e531lasChinaSteelChinacChinaPPIYoYPPIPPIYoYPPItPPIYoYPPI201720182017pagerfoiebarronrementdisclaimer201820182019oprericeppricericeChinacementpriceindexYoYRHSYoYindexcementChinapriceChinaironChinapriceoreindexYoYRHS2019i20192020ndexSteelrebarindexYoYSteelRHSpriceindexindex202020202021P20212021202220222022-100-50050100150200-40-30-20-100102030405060-40-20020406080100ChartChartSourceWindChartSourceSourceWindChartSourceWind10121416-10-6-4-21015-1-502468012345605201620162014---426Nanhua22CPIYoY2015Brentrent2017PPIYoYPPI2017PPIYoYPPI-province2016crudc20182018ompositee2017fputuresorkprice22-provinceaverageporkYoYRHS201920192018aNanhuacompositeindexYoYRHSverageiBrentBrentcrudefuturesYoYRHSndexprice201920202020sprice2020202120212021arWeeklyMacroPagePage20222022-100-50050100150200-100-50050100150200250300-30-20-10010203040506070809ofof112nigraMelbaT5January2023SourceSourceWindChartSourceWindChart-30-20-10Se10203040-10012345620172017eth--e97lasAveragewholesalepriceofagriculturalproducts28keymonitoringvegetablesYoYRHSYoYvegetablesmonitoringkey28productsagriculturalofpricewholesaleAverageYoYCPIFAIFAIYTDYoYAverageCumulativecCumulativet2018pag2018efordisclaimerv2019egetableegetable2019rude2020CrudesteelsoutputYTDYoYRHSYoYoutputsteelsCrudeYTDs2020wteelsteelsholesaleoutput20212021priceP20222022-100-80-60-40-2002040-15-10-505101520ChartChartSourceWindChartSourceSourceWind1000120014001600-600-400-200200400600800-0500051015200020162016100-citypremiumrateoflandtransactedRHS70-citypriceindicesofnewlyconstructedcommercialresidentialbuildingsMoM--108semiconductorPhiladelphiaindex10020172017-cityintegratedcircuitintegratedRHSYoYoutputYoYSemiconductorThePhiladelphiaIndexpremiumremium20182018rateofofate20192019landand20202020transacted20212021arWeeklyMacroPagePage-40-30-20-100102030405010010203040506070ofof112nigraMelbaT5January2023SeeWebsitewwwgtjaicomWebsite2509852TelKongHongCentralRoadQueens181PlazaMillenniumGrandBlockLow27FhrscdsrbtoulctoviaiiyrswudeotayoplcbeaorgltoowiholsuwouldwhichorregulationorlawapplicabletocontrarywithirequirementorlicensingregistrationanybetocompanieswoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwhereorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanybyuseortodistributionforintendedoratdirectednotisReportResearchThisdecisioninvestmentthecomprehendandunderstanduncersosituationmutableandunpredictablewithinherentlyconditionseconomicandpoliticalfuturetheofassumptionsthesomecontainmayReportResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenessandaccuracyGuotaiReportResearchthisincontaineddataandinformationtheofaccuracytheensuretomadebeenhaseffortbestThoughGuotaiJunanofgroupsbankinginvestmentandmanagementassetthebymadedecisionsbeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnycompaniesofgroupJunanGuotaiofexecutivesprofessionalotherandwinororallyexpressedstrategiesinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnyserviinvestmentreportsresearchincoveredcompaniestorelatesthatbusinessdomaycompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiacquiretoofferorinvitationanconstitutenotdoesReportResearchThisDISCLAIMER654321INTERESTSOFDISCLOSUREthTimeHorizon6to18months186toHorizonTimeBenchmarkTheDefinitionRatingSectormonths186toHorizonTimeBenchmarkTheDefinitionRatingCompanye202TableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSlasUnderperformNeutralOutperformRatingTableSectorRatingDefinitionSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuyRatinganyJunangrouphaveGuotainotanditscompaniesemployedReportResearchinthis06030HKmentionedINSURANCECHINAOFBANKHK02388KONGHONGBOC01211CSHARESHKHBIDUHK03380ALIBABAGROUPHKHEALTHLOGAN00981HKSMIC00241HKCORPORATIONCHINATOWERGROUPSINOPHARMHK023820TECHNOLOGYCHINASANDSHK01299MOTORGREATWALLHKENTERTAINMENT00027GALAXYHK00388CLEARINGANDEXCHANGESKONGHONGHKmakingarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotai12monthsprecedingReportwithintheCHEMICALPETROLEUMHKCHINA02886INVESTMENTHKBINHAI00700HKTENCENT01988BANKCONSTRUCTIONHKBIDU00884HKXIAOMIGROUPHOLDINGSHKCIFI06689FRUITHKHONGJIUHKA02139GANSUOFHKBANK01995SERVICE00338HKSPC01171HKYANZHOUCOALHKCIGROUP0338306158HKAGILEPROPERTIESHKZHENROGROUP0338002772HKLOGANHOLDINGSLESSO02128HKZHONGLIANG0366201880GROUPLIFEHEALTHYHKAOYUANHKCITS01601LEASINGTECHKZGC0196309988HKALIBABA01810CORPORATIONCHONGQINGOF03900HKBANKCHINAHKDFZQ0235909992MARTHKPOPHKGREENTOWN09923HKCHKYEAHKA0986802171HKXPENG01907HKCARSGEN0696902150HKSMOOREHKNAYUKI02669GROUPPPT01918OVSHKSUNAC01812RISUNHKCHENMING01066HKCHINAGROUPHKWEIGAO0001700656INTLHKFOSUNDEVELOPMENTWORLDHKNEW0045109SERVICESENGINEERINGHKSINOPEC00460PHARMACEUTICALHKSIHUANHKJINKE01668CITYSOUTHHKCHINA0065900956HKASYMCHEM03888SUNTIENHKKINGSOFT02285HKCHERVON06988HKCHINASPREADHKJOYPAPER02314MANHKLEE0388301258MININGNONFERROUSHKCHINA01164MININGHKCGNPROPERTY00934KANTONSHKSINOPECAOYUANHKCHINACOUNTRYwith00493relationshipsPOWERbankingHKCGN01811MEIYAPOWERinvestmentHKCGNhad01929JEWELLERYFOOKTAIhaveHKCHOWcompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotai0255BANKReportResearchmentionedinthisHKJINSHANG02191REITHKSF01983BANKHKLUZHOUHKBANKOFZHENGZHOU00512HEALTHCAREANDPHARMACEUTICALGRANDCHINAforExceptTheandtheirAnalystsReportResearchinthismentionedasanTheofficeroftheissuerdonotserveassociatesandtheirAnalysts3tGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedLimitedKongReservedHongRightsAllSecuritiesGuotaiJunanpagissueefors-rcesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyorinvestunderwritersponsormanagerleadagentplacingtheexampleforetcces9118Fax8522509852Fax9118mentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesJunanitsandwithGuotaiassociatedReportResearchinthismentioneddisclaimer-HSHARESH卖出减持中性收集买入HongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexCompositeNASDAQIndexSengHangKongHongHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexCompositeNASDAQIndexSengHangKongHong跑输大市中性跑赢大市associatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportinthisissuermentionedtotheinterestsinrelationhaveanyfinancialdonotassociates-BANKHINACONSTRUCTIONHRS03KAKOCOMMUNICATIONSOFHKBANK00939SHARESH02628HKTENCENT00700HKKUAISHOUHK00700TENCENTHK0262806196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissutheofcapitalizationmarkettheof1thanmoreortoequalholdnotdocompaniesgroupitsandJunanHKGuotai0619698KHNAYAPOET38HACEHOOISODNS008KUNOPTICALSUNNYHK02018HOLDINGSTECHNOLOGIES-AACHK03883PROPERTYAOYUANCHINAHK1928orPerformanceRelativeunfavorableissectororofcompanytheoutlookfundamentalortheisPerformanceRelativeorisPerformanceRelativefavorableissectororofcompanytheoutlookfundamentalorthe15to5isPerformanceRelativeor15PerformanceRelativeHSHAREHDefinitionthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableissectororofcompanytheoutlookfundamentalthethefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableissectororofcompanytheoutlookfundamentaltheneutralissectororofcompanytheoutlookfundamentalthe-orPerformanceRelativeisneutralofsectortheoutlookfundamentalortheisPerformanceRelativeisfavorableofsectortheoutlookfundamentalorthe5PerformanceRelativeDefinition779objectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentinvestmentanytoprioradvisersfinancialowntheirconsultnecessarywhereandrisksrelateditsandobjectivesthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableofsectortheoutlookfundamentaltheS00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM0961809618JDCOMHK09999NETEASEHK09988ALIBABAHK01810CORPORATIONXIAOMIHK00788S3-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI01813GROUPHKKWG09888SWorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAHKMOBILE00992LENOVOofrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketamakewillor--HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCEANPINGHK00005HSBCHK03988SHARESHHSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUANHK02269BIOLOGICSWUXIHK00883CNOOCHK01099SHARESH-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY0150201502PROPERTYSTREETHKFINANCIAL03319LIVINGPnsuchjurisdictionnsuch-anHSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINAOFBANKCOMMERCIALINDUSTRIALANDHK00939SHARESH-15--5to55to5individual-5--5to5to515servingaspurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedLimitedKongHongSecuritiesJunanGuotaibysecuritiesforsubscribeorpurchase-HSHARES06821HKGUANGZHOUAUTOHKGUANGZHOU06821SHARESH-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSECCITICHK09868XPENGHK01918SUNACHK01024Wanofficerofany-HSHARES03328HKCHINA03328SHARESH-SW09888HKGEELYCOMPANYHK09888BYDHK00175SWAUTOMOBILEissuers-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCESELECTRICALHKGOME01816SHARESH-SW09626HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINA00175HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE09626SWADN007HKSINOTRANS02007GARDENmentionedinthisResearchReportismentionedThere-forwardHSHARES00386HKmentionedinthisResearchthisinmentionedHK00386SHARESH--lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromderivedforecastsandestimateslooking666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY0017700177EXPRESSWAYHKJIANGSU666HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGYNEWHKGCL02386SHARESHCORPBANKINGMINSHENGHKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438ENERGY00438NEWGROUPHKIRICO-HSHHMOBILE-residHSHARES02318HKCHINALIFELIFECHINAHK02318SHARESHrittenformbysalespersonsalesbyformrittentaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldshouldInvestorscontainmaytaintyARES03958HKWUXIAPPTECAPPTECHKWUXI03958ARESentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionjurisdictionanyinlocatedorofentcontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentinvestmentoropinionstocontraryjcGoaJnnnisgroupitsandJunanGuotaibjectHKJDCOM09618HKCHINA09618HKJDCOM--HSHARES02238HKNWSHKNWS02238SHARESHHKSENSETIMEJunandoesnotguaranteethetheguaranteenotdoesJunanHSHARES02333HKAIAHK02333SHARESHincludinginvestmentbankingbankinginvestmentincluding-HSHARES01398HKHK01398SHARESH--HSHARES0059800598SHARESHHSHARES0094100941SHARESH-W03690HKHK03690W--arWeeklyMacroHSHARESSHARESHSHARESHno-00020WPagePageofficerofsdealersdealerssFIESFIESHINAERER11erer8-ofof112nigraMelbaT5January2023