研究报告全文：ResearchEquityMarketStrategy27December2022AndyHuang黄凯鸿8675523976702kaihonghuanggtjascomhkHongKongEquityMarketLeadstheRestoftheGlobalMarketin2023SummaryMajorAsiancountriesincludingChinaareexpectedtorankhighintermsofeconomicgrowthsignificantlyexceedingtheUSandEuropein2023EuropeseconomicgrowthisexpectedtobelowerandsomeEuropeanStrategyReportcountrieswhicharemoreaffectedbytheRussian-UkrainianconflictduetoweakenergysupplychaincouldevenshownegativegrowthSimilartotheresultofeconomicgrowthforecastsBloombergmarketconsensusshowsthatAsiasmajorstockindexeswillseefastercorporateearningsgrowthin2023AmongthemHongKongstocksrankedaheadHangSengIndexEPSin2023isexpectedtoincreaseby146muchhigherthantheEPSgrowthofEuroStoxx50index08andhigherthanthatoftheSP500index64ReturnsfromHongKongequitymarketwillcomefrombothearningsandvaluationportionsin2023WeassumethattheeconomiesofEuropeandtheUSwillbeginslightrecessionin2023atthesametimetheoverseasinflationisintheprocessofpeakingandfallingandthemonetarytighteningcycleisgraduallycomingtoanendUnder告thisassumptionweexpectthatoverseasstockmarketvaluationsareunlikelytorepairquicklyandmostofthemare报ResearchReportaroundnegative1standarddeviationofthehistoricalmeanInotherwordsreturnsfromoverseasequitymarketdonot究comefromthevaluationportionbutmainlyfromtheearningsportionUnlikeoverseaseconomiesChinaseconomyEquity研willmoderatelyrecoverin2023andreturnsfromHongKongequitymarketwillcomefrombothearningsandvaluation券portionsWeconservativelyexpectthatthevaluationofHangSengIndexmayberepairedfromthenegative2证standarddeviationstoaroundnegative15standarddeviationsofitshistoricalmeanThedividendyieldofmajorEuropeanstockindexeshasalwaysbeenhighandtheHangSengIndexalsorankshighintheAsianmarketThelatestdividendrateoftheHangSengIndexis372mainlybecausetheTacomponentstocksinHangSengIndexhavestableperformancegrowthandsubstantialcashdividendsHongKongstockmarketleadstherestoftheworldin2023Basedonourassumptionsaboutstockmarketblvaluationsearningsgrowthanddividendyieldswecalculatetheexpectedreturnsoftheworldsmajorstockindexesein2023and2024OurresultshowsthatHongKongstockmarketleadstherestoftheworldin2023theexpectedreturnrateoftheHangSengIndexin2023isabove28leadingothermajorstockindexesintheworldValuationLearningsanddividendswillcontribute129121and35respectivelyMarketStrategyeftRiskfactors1Thedomesticepidemicsituationworsens2TheFedacceleratesthepaceoftightening3Sino-USMrelationschangemorethanexpectedarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of20SeSourceSourceethelasBloombergtpagefordisclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai-20-10AsianeconomiesexpectedgrowAsianfastertoeconomiesare001020304050607080111expectedto04toexpectedbebewilltherestillandresilientbestillmayeconomyYoYItalyofandKingdomgrowthUnitedGDPtheGermanyrealthe2023InUkraineandRussiabetweenconflictthebyaffectedmorelowbetoexpectedrategrowthThe2respectively48and765betoexpectedareVietnamChinainIndia2023ofandGDPgrowthratesactualtherategrowththedataforecastmosexperiencedEuropeandStatesUnitedthesurpassingsignificantly2023InGDPgrowthrategrowthGDPhighranksindexesstockAsianofasdataforecastconsensusBloombergofindexesstocktoSimilarperformance12anrespectivelyeconomiestIndiaAsiantoeconomiesareexpectedgrowfasterthanothereconomiesglobalI2023nEeconomarningsofstockindexesareareindexesstockofarningsVietnamaoAsianmajorhrslofresulttheAsofNovember20202220ofNovemberAsseveralseverallyyChinaandmayalsoleadbyawidemarginwideabyleadalsomayeissynchronizedwiththethewithsynchronizedisAlthoughtheUtheAlthoughmayAHangSengHangThailandmongmongarningsorYoYinterestinterestfacedownwardpressureininpressuredownwardface2022evencnmeaexetdorwatrhnteeconomiesotherthanfastergrowtoexpectedareeconomiesSingaporecnmcrwhforecastsgrowtheconomicthemsnegaAustraliaratesofAsianofindexrankindexrankin2023in2023EPSgrowthofgrowthEPSSoftiveSouthKoreaisalsosufferingfromhighinflationandhighandinflationhighfromsufferingalsoishikesHongKongstocksstocksKongHongTernryupyikaeekradtewlbewilltheyandweakerarelinkssupplyenergyTheirwhichisbasicallyconsistentwiththeexpectedtrendoftrendexpectedthewithconsistentbasicallyiswhichJapaneconomi2024areearningsearningsfrommajorcentralbanksbankscentralmajorfromthanotherthanothereconomiespositivesatthetoptheatDecembereUSdevelopedmajortheofxpectVietnamIndiaandIndiaVietnamesinFrenchperformanceofperformancegrowthlyareedtobetoed2020233AcrigolobrconsensusBloombergtoAccording23cor1EurozonethemAmong2023inleadtoexpected2theexpectedgrowthrateofEPSofofEPSofrategrowthexpectedthe2corporateearningsininearningscorporaterelatedin2023TherealGDPisgrowthTherate2023inInmostcasestheGDPrategrowththecasesmostInItaly-fetelblcnmhaseconomyglobaltheAfter107UKin2023itstotheirtheirtoYoYnhgifainn2022ininflationhighandrankHongKongstockistockKongHongeconomistockindexAccordingtoAccordingindexstockGermany-06inin2023topeconomicesPagePageinterestrateinterestYoYinEuropeinMarketStrategysasmajorAsiastier2andofofndex20-01areesits2nigraMelbaT1ngiarMeblaTMarketStrategy27December2022SeSourceSourceNASDAQCOMPOSITEINDEXNASDAQeHANGSENGHANGTECHNOL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