研究报告全文：tekrahMcraethsDecember272022eRMorningBriefHUANGYanming8621-38676036huangyanminggtjascomSACLicS0880512090001SFCLicANY447gninroMContentsTopRecommendationsfKevlarSectorIn-depthReporteirLogisticsWarehousingSectorUpdateReportBElectronicPowerEquipmentUpdateReportTongchengTravel0780HKOWTPHKD2408FundMarketSpecialReportLatestReportsSeniorTechMaterial300568OWTPRMB2750SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准TopRecommendationsKevlarSectorIn-depthReportKevlarisoneofthethreehigh-performancesyntheticfiberswhichenjoyssustainablegrowthofdemandfromthedownstreamsecurityprotectionindustryand5GtelecominfrastructureconstructionMeanwhileitsscopeofapplicationhasexpandedtoautomobileaircraftpartsandfilterproductsKevlarisalsothebestcoatingmaterialforlithiumbatterydiaphragmwhichhasmadeabreakthroughinrealapplicationOffeaturedcompanieswepreferleadingkevlarproducerswhoseproductsarecapableofimportsubstitutionincludingSinochemIntl600500andTayhoAdvancedMaterials002254LogisticsWarehousingSectorUpdateReportThemarketsentimentshavehitbottomandwemaintainOverweightratingforthelogisticsandwarehousingsectorInlinewithourexpectationtheindustrialprofitkeptonrecoveringin2022despitethepandemicimpactsthankstosmallercompetitionsTheleadingcompaniesareabletosustainstableprofitgrowthandincreasetheirmarketsharesduringthepost-pandemicrecoveryofdomesticconsumptionin2023OffeaturedcompanieswemaintainOverweightratingforZTO2057HKYunda002120andYTO600233SFHolding002352isanotherbeneficiaryElectronicPowerEquipmentUpdateReportWesuggestOverweightratingformicro-inverterindustryBecauseoftherelativeadvantagesofmicro-inverteronsafetyandpriceitspenetrationratioindistributedsolarpowerindustrywillkeeponrisingBecauseofthehightechnicalbarriersofmicro-inverterindustryEnphaseUSnowtakesmorethan70globalmarketshareButChineseproducersareabletoincreasetheiroverseasmarketsharesbymeansofprovidingdifferentiatedproductsoflowerpricesIndomesticmarkettheimplementationoftougherregulationsonsafetyproductionmaygiverisetoanexplosivegrowthofdemandwhichwillinturnbenefitallthecompaniesinthewholemicro-inverterindustrialchainTongchengTravel0780HKOWTPHKD2408RatingOWPrvNATPHKD2408PrvNAMPHKD1858Mkt-CapHKD40720mnThankstotherecoveryofdomestictravelspaymentconversionratioandcustomerordersoftheCompanyarebothexpectedtogoupWeforecasttheCompanys2023-2025netprofitofRMB396mn952mnand1409mnandadjustednetprofitofRMB1228mn1925mnand2515mnWesuggesttargetpriceofHKD24082024PEof25xmarket-capofRMB481bnorHKD537bnOverweightratingFundMarketSpecialReportThepastdecadehaswitnessedfastgrowthofthematicfundsFrom2012yearendtomid-2022thenumberandsizeofthematicfundsincreasedfrom35and28RMB66873bnto1060andRMB18397bnwiththeircorrespondingproportionsinequityfundsupfrom476and319to2219and2555TheissuancesofthematicfundsarecloselyrelatedtothemovementsofequitymarketThetopfundcompanieshavebigadvantagesoverotherswhilemedium-sizedfundcompaniescountontheirspecificinvestmentresearchabilitiesTheinstrumentalizationofpublicfundshasbecomealong-termtrendoftheindustryLatestReportsSeniorTechMaterial300568OWTPRMB2750RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB2750PrvRMB2750MPRMB2217Mkt-CapRMB28395mnBecausemassproductionandhighercoatingratiohavecontributedtotheprofitgrowthoftheCompanyweraiseourforecastsoftheCompanys2022-2024EPStoRMB063008106015and149024WemaintaintargetpriceofRMB275andOverweightrating38SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateDecember4th2022A-ShareStrategyWeeklyIncreaseRiskExposureforNewOpportunitiesWeadvisetomoderatelyincreaseriskexposurefornewopportunitiesSinceOctober16ourreportshaverevealedouroptimismaboutthemarketoutlookAfteranintervalofmanyyearstheauthorityapprovedrealestateequityre-financingrecentlyTherecentfastereasingofpandemiccontrolpoliciesalsoreflectedthatthegovernmenthadstartedtostressoneconomicgrowthagainnotethefinancialpolicyeasingin2014didpushupstockmarketdespitethedeteriorationofeconomicfundamentalsThesewillimprovethecross-yeareconomicexpectationsandriskappetitefortheyear2023WepredictthenetprofitofallA-sharesexcludingfinancialsectortorise10TheriskpremiumandvaluationofShanghaiCompositearealso10belowtheirhistoricalaveragebuttheirrecoverycannotbedoneinstantlyLowriskappetiteinvestorshavealreadybeguntoreplenishtheirpositionswhilehighriskappetiteinvestorsremainactiveinstockmarkettransactionsMeanwhilethedeclineofUSdollarinterestrateandthereboundofRMBexchangeratehavebothmadeRMB-denominatedassetsmoreattractiveEveniftherearesomedownwardcorrectionslatertheywillnotgotoofarbecauseoftheturnaroundofmarketexpectationsandthelowstockvaluationsandpricesInsteadatthismomentlargerpositionandexposureofriskassetswillhelptocatchthenewopportunitiesarisingfromnewmarginalandcyclicalopportunitiesItisadvisabletotakeadvantageofthemarketsetbackstoincreasepositionsBluechipsfirstthengrowthstocksDuetotheuncertaintiesofpandemicsituationandtheenduringweaknessofrealestateindustrythenear-termEPSin2022Q4-2023Q1canhardlyrevealsustainableimprovementofbusinessperformancesinfutureWefoundthreecommoncharacteristicsofprevioustwobullmarkets2014H22015H12019drivenbylowstockvaluationdespiteslowbusinessprofitgrowth1recordlowstockvaluation2turnaroundofkeyfactorsfinancein2014consumptionin2019and3theappearanceofaseconddriveregInternetandMadebyChina2025in2015theriseofsemiconductorand5Gcommunicationsectorsin2019whentheexpectationsforcontinuouseconomicrecoveryfailedNowtheconditionsarealmostthesamelowstockvaluationturnaroundofkeyfactorsandslackfundamentalsbutpowerfulindustrialpolicysupportsIn2022defensivesectorsofgoodprofitgrowthandcashflowoutperformedothersInfuturedespitetheuncertaintiesofthepathsofmacroeconomicrecoveryitisadvisabletoemployamoreactiveportfoliostructurebymeansoftakingtherecoveringassetsielowvaluationatpresentbuthugerpotentialofrecoveryin2023and48emergingassetsieengaginginindustrialtransformationandupgradingimportsubstitutionandfast-growthindustriesbluechipsfirstandthengrowthstocksAmajorthreadisthereconstructionofacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsThevaluationsystemintheWeststressesonbusinessefficiencyprofitgrowthandthereturnofprivateshareholdersItslowstate-ownedinterestratiotradablemarketvalueofSOEsandlocalSOEscloseto45oftotalisnothighenoughtoreflectthesocialresponsibilitieseconomiccostsandindustrialchainleadershipoftheenterprisesAfterCSRCchairmanYiHuimanpledgedtoexploreandconstructacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsShanghaiStockExchangeworkedoutits3-yearActionPlanofComprehensiveServicesforSOEsclaimingtohelptorestorethereasonablevaluationofSOEstohelptopushforwardtheprofessionalizedrestructuringofSOEsandtohelptoimprovethemoderncorporatesystemofChinesecharacteristicsInhistorySOEreformswerealwaysthesaverandstabilizerofbearmarketsinChinaNowisjustthemomentofthestartingpointofChinese-stylecapitalmarketvaluationconstructiontheendofthe3-yearplanofSOEreformsandthestartingpointofanewroundofSOEreformsthestartingpointoftheconstructionofaunifiedbignationalmarketandtheeveofthe10-yearanniversaryoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeThespeculationsonSOEreform-relatedthemesmaythriveagainespeciallythespeculationsontheSOEsinvolvedinindustrialintegrationandmanufacturingindustryupgradingAsforsectorallocationandthematicinvestmenttherearetwothreadsOneistherecoveryofcyclicalsectorstheheadrealestatedevelopersB-endbuildingmaterialsuppliersandbankinginsuranceandconstructionsectorsandconsumersectorsfoodbeverageretailingandmediasectorsTheotheristheexpansionofdomesticdemandfueledbythethemesofeconomictransformationindustrialupgradingandnationalsecurityandthebeneficiarysectorsincludepharmaceuticalandimport-substitutionandindustrialupgrading-relatedmanufacturingwarindustrycomputertelecommachineryandnewmaterialssteelnonferrousmetalschemicalsectorsForthematicinvestmentthekeythemesareSOEreformsBeltRoadInitiativeandelectricpowerspotmarketconstruction58GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticeandtheinvestorshallpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdateormodificationTheinvestmentsandservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbeappropriateforcertainclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvicetoclientsInanycircumstancestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentrecommendationsforanypersonInanycircumstancesGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatedinstitutionsshallnotpromiseinvestorsthattheywillmakeprofitsshallnotshareinvestmentgainswithinvestorsandshallnotbeliableforanylosscausedbyanypersonsuseofanycontentinthisreportInvestorsareremindedthatanyinvestmentdecisionsmadebythemarenotrelatedtoGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoritsaffiliatesGuotaiJunanusesinformationwallstocontroltheflowofinformationbetweenoneormorefieldsdepartmentsorrelatedinstitutionswithinGuotaiJunanThereforeinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothatwherepermittedbylawGuotaiJunananditssubordinateaffiliatesmayholdsecuritiesoroptionsissuedbycompaniesmentionedinthereportandconducttradingofthosesecuritiesoroptionsandmayprovideortrytoprovideservicessuchasinvestmentbankingfinancialadvisingorfinancialproductstothosecompaniesWherepermittedbylawemployeesofGuotaiJunanmayserveasdirectorsofcompaniesmentionedinthisreportThestockmarketisriskyandinvestmentneedstobecautiousInvestorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisionsnorshouldtheyconsiderthisreporttobeasubstitutefortheirownjudgmentBeforedecidingtoinvestifnecessaryinvestorsmustconsultprofessionalsandmakeprudentdecisionsThisreportisnotintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoisnotallowedtosendordistributethisreportunderlocallawsorregulatoryrulesnorisitintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoseavailabilityoruseofthisreportwouldcauseGuotaiJunantoviolateorbesubjecttolocallawsorregulatoryrulesThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbyGuotaiJunanWithoutwrittenpermissionnoinstitutionorindividualmayreproducecopypublishorquoteinanyformIfitisquotedorpublishedwiththeconsentofGuotaiJunanitmustbeusedwithinthepermittedscopeandthesourcemustbeindicatedasGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchorGuotaiJunanHongKongResearchandthereportmustnotbequoteddeletedormodifiedinanywaythatiscontrarytotheoriginalintentionGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedshallbeliabletoGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdforthecontentanddistributionofresearchreportsIfanorganizationotherthanGuotaiJunanhereinafterreferredtoastheOrganizationsendsthisreportitshallbesolelyresponsibleforsuchsendingInvestorswhoobtainthisreportthroughthismeansshouldcontacttheOrganizationontheirowntorequestmoredetailedinformationortofurthertradeinthesecuritiesreferredtointhisreportThisreportshallnotconstituteinvestmentadviceprovidedbyGuotaiJunantotheclientsoftheOrganizationnorshallGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatesbeliableforanylossesincurredbytheclientsoftheOrganizationasaresultoftheuseofthisreportorthecontentscontainedinthereport68ThefollowingimportantstatementsareapplicabletoresearchreportspublishedinHongKongThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanHongKongGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunanHongKonggroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanHongKongThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunanHongKongdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionDITSaCbLleOSDUISRCELOFSUINRTEEORFEINSTESRESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKChinaGrandPharmaceuticalandHealthcare00512HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithGeelyAutomobile00175HKSinotrans-Hshares00598HKBankofCommunications-Hshares03328HKJDcom09618HKBIDU-SW09888HKKingsoft03888HKNWS00659HKSenseTime-W00020HKChinaNonferrousMining01258HKJoySpreader06988HKGuangzhouAutomobile-Hshares02238HKChinaLesso02128HKKWGGroup01813HKCIFIHoldingsGroup00884HKZhenroProperties06158HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCountryGarden02007HKTencent00700HKAgileGroup03383HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKLoganGroup03380HKSUNAC01918HKNewWorldDevelopment00017HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKFOSUNINTL00656HKCITS01880HKCARSGEN02171HKChinaMinshengBankingCorp-Hshares01988HKGCLNewEnergy00451HKChowTaiFookJewellery01929HKIRICOGroupNewEnergy00438HKFinancialStreetProperty01502HKGOMEElectricalAppliances00493HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKAoyuanHealthyLifeGroup03662HKJinkeServices09666HKA-LIVING03319HKBankofGansu02139HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKBinhaiInvestment02886HKChinaSouthCity01668HKChinaRisunGroup01907HKYEAHKA09923HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKAlibaba09988HKZhongliangHoldings02772HKSihuanPharmaceutical00460HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKDFZQ-Hshares03958HKCGNPower-Hshares01816HKCGNMeiyaPower01811HKCGNMining01164HKJiangsuExpressway00177HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKGreentownChina03900HKChervon02285HKAsymchem-Hshares06821HKXPENG09868HKNAYUKI02150HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKCIFIESService01995HKSinopecKantons00934HKSINOPECEngineering-Hshares02386HKSPC00338HKChinaPetroleumChemical-Hshares00386HKPOPMART09992HKCHENMING01812HKLeeManPaper02314HKSMOORE06969HKZGCTecLeasing01601HKKANZHUNLIMITEDBZUSTencentMusicEntertainmentGroupTMEUSDiDiDIDIUSBilibiliIncBILIUSZhihuZHUSNIONIOUSJDcomJDUSFutuFUTUUSSinopecSNPUSSINOTRANS601598SHMACALLINE601828SHGACGROUP601238SHHUNDSUN600570SHCHINASUNTIENGREENENERGY600956SHCCB601939SHFANGDACARBON600516SHCITS601888SHLUANEED601699SHCMB600036SHINDUSTRIALBANK601166SHBANKOFCHONGQING601963SHORIENTSECURITIES600958SHJIANGSUEXPRESS600377SHBANKCOMM601328SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHBBMG601992SHSPC600688SHSINOPECCORP600028SHGXHT002074SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZJINKE000656SZYCC000878SZCGN003816SZEASTMONEY300059SZCASYMCHEM002821SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZLBG002601SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofSUNAC01918HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentCompanyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightsuggestionsRatingIndexover1578InvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengratingandsectorratingOverweightIndexbetween5and15Themarketperformancewithinthe12IncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengNeutralmonthsafterthepublicationofthereportisIndexbetween-5and5consideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengUnderweightTheincreaseanddecreaseoftheIndexover5companysstockpriceorindustryindexSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangOverweightwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofSengIndexthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexinthesameperiodSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HangUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20thFloorBohuaPlazaNo669XinzhaRoadShanghai20004186213867-6666JinganDistrictShanghaiFloor1818thFloorSouthBuildingFinancialStreetBeijingCenterNo9FinancialStreetXichengDistrict10003286108393-9888Beijing34thFloorNewWorldBusinessCenterNo6009Shenzhen518026867552397-6888YitianRoadFutianDistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2022CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved88