研究报告全文：tekrahMcraethsDecember262022eRMorningBriefHUANGYanming8621-38676036huangyanminggtjascomSACLicS0880512090001SFCLicANY447gninroMContentsTopRecommendationsfMacroResearchDemand-sideIndustrialPolicieseirA-ShareMarketStrategy2023TurnaroundAheadBOverseasMarketHongKongStocksHouseholdAppliancesSectorSectorStrategyNewEnergySectorSectorStrategySectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准TopRecommendationsMacroResearchDemand-sideIndustrialPoliciesTheinvestmentgrowthofmanufacturingindustriesinthefirstelevenmonthsof2022wasfasterthanmarketexpectationsCapitalexpendituresconcentratedintheupstreamandmidstreamofthemanufacturingindustrieswhichwerecloselyrelatedtotheneweconomyincreasinglyfocusingondomesticdemandratherthanonexportChinaisnowatthethresholdofanotherunprecedentedchangewhentheindicativesignificanceofexternaldemandandprofitmarginisbeingoverwhelmedbydomesticdemandandindustrialpoliciesIntermsoftop-downapproachtheindustrialpoliciesonthedomesticdemand-relatedmanufacturingindustriesareagoodindicatorofthestockmarketopportunitiesinmanufacturingsectorin2023FirstChinasindustrialpoliciesusedtofocusonthesupplysideandenvironmentalprotectionTherehavebeenrelativelyfewdemand-sidepoliciesOvercapacityandstagnantlow-endindustrialchainremainthetwohauntingproblemsSecondChinasDualCirculationnewdevelopmentpatternisaskingformoredemand-sidepoliciessoastoencouragetheDomesticCirculationOnetypicaldemand-sideindustrialpolicyisthelow-interestloanforequipmentreplacementandrenovationTheChina-madeequipmentforeducationmedicalelectronicandmachineryindustrieswhichcanbemanufacturedbyChinabutwhosequalityisinferiortothatofimportedgoodswilltakebenefitfromthedemand-sideindustrialpoliciesandenjoyanotherroundofrisingcapitalexpendituresin2023A-ShareMarketStrategy2023TurnaroundAheadAnewbullmarketisonthewayin2023followingtheturnaroundofmarketexpectationsIncontrasttothemarketpessimismabouttheoutlookofmacroeconomyandstockmarketinvestmentwefirmlybelievethatabullA-sharemarketwillcomeintobeingin2023becauseofthedecreasinguncertaintiesofcoronaviruspandemicmacroeconomicandpoliticalsituationsFirstChinaisexpectedtoenteraperiodofrisingdomesticdemandrisingROEandrisingbusinessearningsin2023Q2followingtheeasingofpandemiccontrolthepost-pandemicopening-upandthewideninggapoftheprofitmarginsbetweenmidstreamanddownstreamindustriesCPI-PPISecondtheriskappetiteofinvestorswillgoupwhenthehighuncertaintiesofbothdomesticandexternalmacroeconomicenvironmentsstarttodiminishThirdsincegovernmentpoliciesmacroeconomicfundamentalsandstockmarketvaluationshavehitbottomatthesametimetheroomfortheconsequentreboundofstockmarketwillbehugeA-sharemarkethaswitnesseditsworstmomentin2022andanewbullisonthewaynextyearAsforsectorallocationandthematicinvestmenttheopportunitieslieindomesticdemandnationalsecurityandSOErevaluationAtpresentthepro-cyclicalvalue-investmentsectorsarethebiggestbeneficiariesfromtheameliorationofmarketexpectationsandgovernmentpoliciesofwhichwerecommendfinancialsectorssecuritiesbankingconsumersectorsfoodbeveragehoteltourismduty-freeshoppingairlinesandtherealestateindustrialchainbuildingmaterialsconstruction29engineeringfurniturehouseholdappliancesWhentheeconomicgrowthlevelsoffmultiplefactorsincludingthepolicyeasingthepolicysupporttheneedfornationalsecuritytheinventory-replenishingofsemiconductorindustryandthepopularityofnewAPPLEhardwarewillfavorthefollowingsectorsincludingequipmentmanufacturingelectroniccomputertelecomwarindustrymachinerymaterialsnonferrousmetalssteelchemicalsandpharmaceuticalsinnovativedrugsmedicalinstrumentsmedicalservicesAsforthematicinvestmentthekeythemesincludeManufacturing-plusSOEswhichplaytheleadingroleinindigenoussciencetechdevelopmentdomesticmarketintegrationandexportofproductioncapacitiesandBeltRoadInitiativeOverseasMarketHongKongStocksWeareoptimisticabouttheoutlookofHongKongstocksBecauseoftheeconomicrecoveryinChinaandtheeconomicrecessionoverseasandalsobecauseoftheameliorationoftheoverseasinflationandliquidityforeigncapitalmayincreasetheweightofitsHongKongstockpositionGenerallyspeakingtheeconomicrecoveryofChinaandthedescendingUSdollarandUSbondinterestratesin2023areinfavorofabiggerreboundofHongKongstockmarketthanChinamainlandmarketOpportunitieswillarisefromtheturnarounddomesticoroverseas1ThestockmarketcorrectionsofHongKongstockmarketbetweenthemomentofpolicybottomandthemomentofprofitbottomareusuallylimitedmakingitagoodchancetobuildpositionatlowerprices2Afterthelaunchingofsupply-sidepolicysupportstheanticipatedlaunchingofthedemand-sidepolicysupportswillbenefitrealestatefinancialmaterialsandautoautopartssectors3AftertheeasingofpandemiccontroltherecoveryofbothmacroeconomyandhouseholdincomemaycometrueifthepandemicsituationdoesstarttoameliorateTheconsequentriseofconsumerconfidencewillfavorretailinghotelcateringpharmaceuticalandautosectors4Theturnaroundofoverseasmonetaryliquiditywillfavorinflation-sensitiveindustriessuchasinnovativedrugsemiconductorandgoldindustries5IntermsoftheturnaroundofbusinessclimatewerecommendautoandsemiconductorsectorsHouseholdAppliancesSectorSectorStrategyInviewofthefrequentlaunchingofrealestatepoliciestheeasingofpandemiccontrolandthecomingnewpoliciestostimulatedomesticdemandandconsumptionin2023thelong-termoutlookofhouseholdappliancesindustryisgoodanditssectorvaluationwillgoupaswellfollowingtherecoveryofbusinessfundamentalsOffeaturedcompanieswerecommendRobam0025082022PEof142xHisenseHomeAppliances000921134xHaier600690153xFlyco603868292xGreeAppliances00065171xHisenseVisual600060110xXinbao002705131xMidea000333120xBearAppliance002959281xandEcovacs603486245xNewEnergySectorSectorStrategyThecontinualriseoftheupstreamproductioncapacitymayresultinabigmarkdownofthepricinglevelofentirephotovoltaicindustrialchainwhichwillinturnstimulatethedownstreamdemandTheyear2023isgoingtowitnessaskyrocketing39growthofsolarpowergenerationcapacitiesAslearnedfromtheactualdistributionofindustrialprofitsamongdifferentlinksofphotovoltaicindustrialchainduringtherecenttwoyearsofhighbusinessclimatethelinkofsiliconmaterialtakesmostoftheindustrialprofitsIn2023thefollowingthreelinksthatmayoutperformothers1batterycellslicesandintegratedcomponents2accessorymaterialsand3midstreamanddownstreamlinksbracketinverterEPCpowerstationenergystorage49SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateDecember4th2022A-ShareStrategyWeeklyIncreaseRiskExposureforNewOpportunitiesWeadvisetomoderatelyincreaseriskexposurefornewopportunitiesSinceOctober16ourreportshaverevealedouroptimismaboutthemarketoutlookAfteranintervalofmanyyearstheauthorityapprovedrealestateequityre-financingrecentlyTherecentfastereasingofpandemiccontrolpoliciesalsoreflectedthatthegovernmenthadstartedtostressoneconomicgrowthagainnotethefinancialpolicyeasingin2014didpushupstockmarketdespitethedeteriorationofeconomicfundamentalsThesewillimprovethecross-yeareconomicexpectationsandriskappetitefortheyear2023WepredictthenetprofitofallA-sharesexcludingfinancialsectortorise10TheriskpremiumandvaluationofShanghaiCompositearealso10belowtheirhistoricalaveragebuttheirrecoverycannotbedoneinstantlyLowriskappetiteinvestorshavealreadybeguntoreplenishtheirpositionswhilehighriskappetiteinvestorsremainactiveinstockmarkettransactionsMeanwhilethedeclineofUSdollarinterestrateandthereboundofRMBexchangeratehavebothmadeRMB-denominatedassetsmoreattractiveEveniftherearesomedownwardcorrectionslatertheywillnotgotoofarbecauseoftheturnaroundofmarketexpectationsandthelowstockvaluationsandpricesInsteadatthismomentlargerpositionandexposureofriskassetswillhelptocatchthenewopportunitiesarisingfromnewmarginalandcyclicalopportunitiesItisadvisabletotakeadvantageofthemarketsetbackstoincreasepositionsBluechipsfirstthengrowthstocksDuetotheuncertaintiesofpandemicsituationandtheenduringweaknessofrealestateindustrythenear-termEPSin2022Q4-2023Q1canhardlyrevealsustainableimprovementofbusinessperformancesinfutureWefoundthreecommoncharacteristicsofprevioustwobullmarkets2014H22015H12019drivenbylowstockvaluationdespiteslowbusinessprofitgrowth1recordlowstockvaluation2turnaroundofkeyfactorsfinancein2014consumptionin2019and3theappearanceofaseconddriveregInternetandMadebyChina2025in2015theriseofsemiconductorand5Gcommunicationsectorsin2019whentheexpectationsforcontinuouseconomicrecoveryfailedNowtheconditionsarealmostthesamelowstockvaluationturnaroundofkeyfactorsandslackfundamentalsbutpowerfulindustrialpolicysupportsIn2022defensivesectorsofgoodprofitgrowthandcashflowoutperformedothersInfuturedespitetheuncertaintiesofthepathsofmacroeconomicrecoveryitisadvisabletoemployamoreactiveportfoliostructurebymeansoftakingtherecoveringassetsielowvaluationatpresentbuthugerpotentialofrecoveryin2023and59emergingassetsieengaginginindustrialtransformationandupgradingimportsubstitutionandfast-growthindustriesbluechipsfirstandthengrowthstocksAmajorthreadisthereconstructionofacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsThevaluationsystemintheWeststressesonbusinessefficiencyprofitgrowthandthereturnofprivateshareholdersItslowstate-ownedinterestratiotradablemarketvalueofSOEsandlocalSOEscloseto45oftotalisnothighenoughtoreflectthesocialresponsibilitieseconomiccostsandindustrialchainleadershipoftheenterprisesAfterCSRCchairmanYiHuimanpledgedtoexploreandconstructacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsShanghaiStockExchangeworkedoutits3-yearActionPlanofComprehensiveServicesforSOEsclaimingtohelptorestorethereasonablevaluationofSOEstohelptopushforwardtheprofessionalizedrestructuringofSOEsandtohelptoimprovethemoderncorporatesystemofChinesecharacteristicsInhistorySOEreformswerealwaysthesaverandstabilizerofbearmarketsinChinaNowisjustthemomentofthestartingpointofChinese-stylecapitalmarketvaluationconstructiontheendofthe3-yearplanofSOEreformsandthestartingpointofanewroundofSOEreformsthestartingpointoftheconstructionofaunifiedbignationalmarketandtheeveofthe10-yearanniversaryoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeThespeculationsonSOEreform-relatedthemesmaythriveagainespeciallythespeculationsontheSOEsinvolvedinindustrialintegrationandmanufacturingindustryupgradingAsforsectorallocationandthematicinvestmenttherearetwothreadsOneistherecoveryofcyclicalsectorstheheadrealestatedevelopersB-endbuildingmaterialsuppliersandbankinginsuranceandconstructionsectorsandconsumersectorsfoodbeverageretailingandmediasectorsTheotheristheexpansionofdomesticdemandfueledbythethemesofeconomictransformationindustrialupgradingandnationalsecurityandthebeneficiarysectorsincludepharmaceuticalandimport-substitutionandindustrialupgrading-relatedmanufacturingwarindustrycomputertelecommachineryandnewmaterialssteelnonferrousmetalschemicalsectorsForthematicinvestmentthekeythemesareSOEreformsBeltRoadInitiativeandelectricpowerspotmarketconstruction69GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticeandtheinvestorshallpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdateormodificationTheinvestmentsandservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbeappropriateforcertainclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvicetoclientsInanycircumstancestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentrecommendationsforanypersonInanycircumstancesGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatedinstitutionsshallnotpromiseinvestorsthattheywillmakeprofitsshallnotshareinvestmentgainswithinvestorsandshallnotbeliableforanylosscausedbyanypersonsuseofanycontentinthisreportInvestorsareremindedthatanyinvestmentdecisionsmadebythemarenotrelatedtoGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoritsaffiliatesGuotaiJunanusesinformationwallstocontroltheflowofinformationbetweenoneormorefieldsdepartmentsorrelatedinstitutionswithinGuotaiJunanThereforeinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothatwherepermittedbylawGuotaiJunananditssubordinateaffiliatesmayholdsecuritiesoroptionsissuedbycompaniesmentionedinthereportandconducttradingofthosesecuritiesoroptionsandmayprovideortrytoprovideservicessuchasinvestmentbankingfinancialadvisingorfinancialproductstothosecompaniesWherepermittedbylawemployeesofGuotaiJunanmayserveasdirectorsofcompaniesmentionedinthisreportThestockmarketisriskyandinvestmentneedstobecautiousInvestorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisionsnorshouldtheyconsiderthisreporttobeasubstitutefortheirownjudgmentBeforedecidingtoinvestifnecessaryinvestorsmustconsultprofessionalsandmakeprudentdecisionsThisreportisnotintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoisnotallowedtosendordistributethisreportunderlocallawsorregulatoryrulesnorisitintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoseavailabilityoruseofthisreportwouldcauseGuotaiJunantoviolateorbesubjecttolocallawsorregulatoryrulesThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbyGuotaiJunanWithoutwrittenpermissionnoinstitutionorindividualmayreproducecopypublishorquoteinanyformIfitisquotedorpublishedwi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IANGSUEXPRESS600377SHBANKCOMM601328SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHBBMG601992SHSPC600688SHSINOPECCORP600028SHGXHT002074SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZJINKE000656SZYCC000878SZCGN003816SZEASTMONEY300059SZCASYMCHEM002821SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZLBG002601SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofSUNAC01918HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentCompanyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightsuggestionsRatingIndexover1589InvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengratingandsectorratingOverweightIndexbetween5and15Themarketperformancewithinthe12IncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengNeutralmonthsafterthepublicationofthereportisIndexbetween-5and5consideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengUnderweightTheincreaseanddecreaseoftheIndexover5companysstockpriceorindustryindexSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangOverweightwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofSengIndexthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexinthesameperiodSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HangUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20thFloorBohuaPlazaNo669XinzhaRoadShanghai20004186213867-6666JinganDistrictShanghaiFloor1818thFloorSouthBuildingFinancialStreetBeijingCenterNo9FinancialStreetXichengDistrict10003286108393-9888Beijing34thFloorNewWorldBusinessCenterNo6009Shenzhen518026867552397-6888YitianRoadFutianDistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2022CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved99