研究报告全文：ResearchMacroeconomicMacroTableTitleWeekly29December2022HaoZhouBillySun8522509758285225092603haozhougtjascomhkbillysungtjascomhkTableSummaryChinaConsumptiontoLeadtheRecoveryChartinFocusChinasretailsaleswilloutperformin2023MacroWeeklySourceWindGuotaiJunanInternationalWhileourGDPforecastislargelyinlinewithmarketconsensusweholdaviewthatdomesticconsumptionwilloutperformnextyearOurestimationonretailsalesgrowthis68yyfor202305ppthigherthanEquityResearchReportBloombergconsensusat63AsChinaissettoremovealmostalltheCOVIDrestrictionsasearlyasnextJanuarywearemoreconfidentaboutourviewondomesticconsumptionTheicebergsthatsuppressconsumptionaremeltingFirstsupply-siderecoverywillhelpreducethejoblessratesalthoughtheprocessisslowbutthetrendiscertainSecondtheexpectationofshrinkingwealthwhichdiscouragedhigh-incomegroupstoconsumehasbeguntoreverseandtheinflectionpointofresidentsleveragemayhavearrivedThirdtheprecautionarysavingsaccumulatedinthepastthreeyearsarelikelytobeunleashedduringthecourseofpost-pandemicrecoveryDatareviewThepriceofoilhasshownanupwardtrendinthepastweekwiththecathodepricestartingtorecoverafterhittingashort-termbottomAsfortheironoreontheotherhandpriceshaveshownstabilityinthepastweekMeanwhilebothcokingcoreanditsstocksincreasedinthefourthweekofDecemberDataandeventcalendarOnthedatafrontaslewoffinalmanufacturingPMIdatawillbepublishednextweekincludingdatafromAustraliaUKUSandtheeurozoneAtthesametimeGermanunemploymentdatawillbereleasedInadditionDecemberISMmanufacturingPMIfortheUSwillarriveOnthelastdayofnextweekbothinflationdataintheeurozoneandlabourmarketdataintheUSwillbepublishedSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of11SeethelastpagefordisclaimerFigureWuhansinceimposedbeenhadwhichrestrictionsCOVIDof2lockdowninearlyoutwayatopointgovernmentclearlythebyannouncedmeasuresrecentthehoweveryearthisprocessreopeningcasesCOVIDofpeakChinasTheSourceWindFigureonviewouraboutdomesticconsumptionconfidentmoreareweJanuarynextasearlyasrestrictionsCOVIDthe052023foryy68isgrowthsalesretailonestimationOuryearnextoutperformwillconsumptiondomesticthatviewaholdweconsensusmarketwithlineinlargelyisforecastGDPourWhileWebusinessbusinessandtravelinternationalhotelremovedalsoauthoritiesChineseencouraginglyMoretheSourceWind100001100012000130001400010152025303540700080009000Million7DMA7DMillionseeconsumptionoutperformconsumptionseereopeninghasbeenacceleratihasbeenreopeningurnieooverseasforquarantineDec-21BillionRMBBillion--21COVIDpivotcameinearlierMobilitytierinindicatorsTotalranddutyJan-22ppthigherthanBloombergcBloombergthanhigherppt2018GuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanJan-22PFeb-22etailDailytrafficcongestionindexRHSindexcongestiontrafficDailyQ1-freefreeshoppingFeb-22020Mar-22salesfwotsghrwsiteoehthnwudtrthestartwouldChinathathopelittlewasthereagomonthsfewA2019infcnlbotorsadeaeidsreuhsairlineassuchindustriesrelatedandtourismboostsignificantlyMar-22ofgoodsinconsumeroutperforming2023bewillApr-22Apr-22arrivalsMay-22thanthanexpected-11citiesQ2onsensusat63atonsensusMay-22ing2020efciermetJanuarynextfromeffectiveJun-22ngJun-22Jul-22Jul-22and2021Aug-22thethefirstAsChinaissettoremovealmostallalmostremovetosetisChinaAsAug-22Q3almostalmostDailysubwaypassengerflowpassengersubwayDailySep-22-Sep-22tiercitiesmighthavealltherestrictionsincludingrestrictionstheallOct-222022wihwillwhichOct-22Oct-227DMAIndexNov-22Q4Nov-22WeeklyMacroPagePage2023Dec-22seenpromote101112131415161718192ofofthethe112nigraMelbaT29December2022102030405060708090SourcereopeningsinceFigure0SeethWind-e4lasStringencyindexofCovid-19indexStringencyGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunantSingaporepagefordisclaimersconsumptionSourceWindFigueconomicasallthedomesticoverconsumptioncloudswillclearalmostthatthedoubtreopeningisnotherepretoreturnwillconsumptionrecoveryfastaexperiencetolikelyisconsumptionrecoveringpeoplemorewithHoweversurgingatreboundbigaseetounlikelyisconsumptionthatsuggestsKoreaSouthandSingaporeKongHongfromthethebeginningreopeningofthebutEconsumptionboostwillwhichreducedsavingspandemicconsumptionIhelpalsowillexcesssavingTheteenieteexcessthemeantimethenxperience1020304050607080Retailsalesindex2017100RHS2017100indexsalesRetailre-3havehavebeenaccumulatedtoaboutconsumptioncausedcausedconsumptionbybutsoaredduringthetheduringsoaredbutTheconsumptionTheinmrvsslowlyimprovesGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanfromothereconomiesotherfrom-activityerecoveryledPthebeginningofthereopeningaspeoplearegenerallycautionswithinfectionswithcautionsgenerallyarepeopleasreopeningtheofbeginningtheStringencyindexofCovid-19indexStringencywillgradually405060708090100110120hhouseholdThe-rprecautionaryoradmceedfesniignohratrhoweverfactorsotherandtimingondifferslevelpandemicHongKongHongSourceSourceWindpFigure102030405060708090COVIDrogressivereturnpandemicsuggeststhattheconsumptionwillbebewillconsumptionthethatsuggestsmomentumwillbeaccelerating-5constraintsandconstraintssupplyshockstotonormalCNY42GStringencyindexofCovid-19indexStringencyuotaiJunanInternationaluotaiJunansseesotKoreasSouthOrevi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