研究报告全文：ResearchEquityMarketStrategy29December2022EvanLi85225095375evanligtjascomhkHongKongBullMarketIsonaThree-StageRocketRideSummaryStrategyReportHeadwindspreviouslyaffectingtheHongKongstockmarketsawrespiteinearlyNovemberThebenchmarkofHongKongstockstheHangSengIndexHSIreboundedsharplybynearly236inNovemberafterdippingtoahistoricallowFactorsthatliftedtheHKstockmarketinclude1Aflurryofgovernmentdrivesincludingrealestatepolicystimulusrolledout2Alooseningofzero-Covidboostedmarketsentiment3InvestorsbetonslowerpaceofratehikesasUSinflationeasedfurtherinNovemberHongKongstockmarketisonathree-stagerocketrideThecurrentmarketsentimentisrampingupasChinaseconomicgrowthoutlookisrevivingIngeneralwebelievetheshort-termdrawdownfromthepolicybottomtothemarketbottomwillnotchangetheupwardtrajectoryoftheHongKongstockmarketFirst-stagerocketriskappetitewillcontinuetoreviveInvestoruncertaintyaroundpolicyexecutionandzero-CovidaregraduallydiminishingandriskappetiteofHongKongstockswillrecoverfurtherResearchReportSecond-stagerocketvaluationrerateUSinflationhasfinallystartedtomoderateandtheFedisgettingclosertoitsso-calledterminalrateThe10-yearUSTreasuryratesupsidespaceisrelativelycappedwhileitEquitymayhavealotfurthertofallthusliquiditymotivatedtradingmightfurtherreratevaluationoftheHSIThree-stagerocketupwardearningsrevisionsChinaseconomyisexpectedtostagearecoveryin2023CorporatefundamentalswillstrengthenfurtheramidChinaseconomicrecoveryThustheearningsexpectationofHongKongstocksislikelytoreviseupwardandagainstrengthenthemarketsentimentTheroadtoreboundisnotsmoothThepolicybottomhasbeenformedbuttheremaybeacertaindrawdownwhenapproachingmarketbottomRiskfactorsincludeshorttermCovidexitwaveandasaresulteconomicgrowthmomentummightremainvolatileglobalmacroeconomicbackdropandlargerthanexpectedFedtighteningpolicyBuyondipsItisexpectedthatthepolicyresponsesshallremainsupportivetoboostdomesticdemandunderthepressureofweakenedoverseesdemandAsetofsupportivemeasurestowardshousingandconsumptiondemandareexpectedtorolloutaszero-CovidgraduallydiminishesInthestageoftradingonexpectationsaMarketStrategybuyondipsstrategyshouldbeadoptedFavoringsectorsrunalongsidethereversalstrategy1Wefavortherealestatesupply-chainsectorsinanticipationofcontinuouspolicystimulusonthedemandside2Consumercyclicalnamesthatbenefitfromare-openingoftheeconomyespeciallysectorsthatarestillundervaluedincludinge-commerceautomobilesconsumerelectronicsetc3Liquidity-sensitivesectorsincludingbiotechgoldandsemiconductorsetcRiskwarning1Chinasstimuluspoliciesarenotassufficientasexpected2Larger-than-forecastedFedrateriseSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of20pasttwoyearstwopastThreemountains1inthathaveHongmarkettheKongstockthesuppressedPrefaceContents4Strategy4BuyondipsroadThetorecovery3tortuousis2SeHongKongstockmarketisHongKongonastockthreemarkete32Downsideofrisk32stockrisingUSandTreasuryUSrateConflictsfundamentalsand31betweenexpectationsThird23Second22First21HongThreethemountains12suppressedmarketKongstockyearsHonginbearKonghaveintoamarketstocks11pastthetwofallenthelastpagefo-stagerocketstagefavorablepolicytocontinueoutstimuluswillroll-rstagerocketexpectationearningsbottomsoutdisclaimer-stagerocketUSstagerocketPTreasuryvaluationfallHSIfurtherreraterates-stagerocketridestageaktStrategyMarketPagePage2ofof20171514141211986443MarketStrategy29December2022SourcelowhistoricalreboundedFigure-40-30-20-10-80-70-60-50100MarketTurnoverMilHKDRHSBloombergSe-1etheMajorHongKongstockindiceshavehaveindicesstockKongHongMajorlassharplysharplyGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaitspagefordisclaimerrmtheirfromHangSengIndexHeadwindspreviouslyaffectingtheHongKongstockmarketsawrespiteinearlyearlysharplyinrespitesawmarketstockNovemberKongHongtheaffectingpreviouslyHeadwindsPrefacevappetitestocksKongHongloosenedhavestocksgraduallyisoutlooktheandpassedhavemaystocksKongHongdifficultformostperiodthethatindicateismarketstockKongHongearningslongbelowtheofratiothereflectingdecreasedbothsignificantlyincreasedindstockKongHongmajorexpectationsearningsandSignificantratehikesasUSinflationofpaceeasedinfurtherNovemberzerooflooseningA2outrolledtheHKstockmarketinclude1Aflurryofgovernmentdrivesincludingrealestatepolicystimuluslot11almostgrowthratebynearly236nearlybyturningoptimisticturningaluationHSCEI-termvaluationtermHSIamountThebenchmarkofHongKongstockstheHangSengIndexHSIIndexSengHangthestocksKongHongofbenchmarkhePhaslefttheextremethelefthasHSTECHrerate-willyearyearofshortpositionsshortofofHSIofT050000100000150000200000250000300000350000somewhathevolatilityofthetheofvolatilityheridingbymarketbullaachieveandarelativelyreasonablelevelrelativelyreasonableaTheinand20222023inNovemberafterdippingtoahistoricallowhistoricalatodippingafterNovemberinicesmarginalimprovedmarginalupwardrevisionofofupwarderevisiononbullishSourcemarketsellingtoFigure10152025303540455055andand-threemountainsthreeaoeonfromreboundtoCovidboostedmarketsentiment3InvestorsbetonsloweronbetInvestors3sentimentmarketboostedCovidthreelowmarketsentiment22sentimentmarketBloomberg-investors2onHS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