研究报告全文：tekrahMcraethsJanuary42023eRMorningBriefHUANGYanming8621-38676036huangyanminggtjascomSACLicS0880512090001SFCLicANY447gninroMContentsTopRecommendationsfTelecomSectorSectorStrategyeirConstructionEngineeringSectorUpdateReportBSemiconductorEquipmentSectorIn-depthReportLatestReportsHisenseHomeAppliances000921OWTPRMB1712SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准TopRecommendationsTelecomSectorSectorStrategyCompanyThemeRecommendations1TelecomoperatorsChinaMobile600941ChinaTelecom601728andChinaUnicom6000502StructuralInvestmentImportSubstitutionZTE000063ShijiaPhotons688313TFC300394AdvancedFiberResources300620andBaosightSoftware6008453DomesticDemandInvestmentHengtong600487Zhongtian600522YangtzeOpticalFibre601869WillfarInfoTech688100Leaguer688589Chengchang001270andEnvicool0028374ExternalDemandExplorationHT002402Topband002139Longtech300916andFocuslight688167ConstructionEngineeringSectorUpdateReportIn2023themarketexpectationsoftheconstructionindustryareyettochangeinfouraspectsnamelyrealestateandinfrastructureinvestmentBeltRoadInitiativenewenergyandSOEreformsThetotalinvestmentgrowthofrealestateandinfrastructureconstructionisgoingtorisefrom0in202210infrastructure-10realestateto11in20238infrastructure3realestatewhichwillimprovethebusinessclimateandprofitofconstructionindustry1Thedemand-siderealestatepolicystimuluswillhelptoincreasetherealestatesalesandmarketsharesofSOEssuchasChinaConstructionEngineering601668ChinaRailwayConstruction601186andChinaRailway6013902Thepost-pandemicrecoveryoftheoverseasmarketscoveredbyBeltRoadInitiativewillimprovetheoverseasbusinessandgrossmarginofinternationalcontractorssuchasChinaChemicalEngineering601117ChinaCommunicationsConstruction601800andSinosteelEngineering0009283Themarkdownoftheupstreamsiliconmaterialpriceswillimprovetheprofitmarginofthedownstreamgreen-poweroperatorsandEPCslikePowerChina601669andChinaEnergyEngineering6018684TheadvanceofSOEreformswillimprovethefinancingofSOEsSemiconductorEquipmentSectorIn-depthReportFrom2016to2021semiconductorequipmentindustryenjoyed5yearsoffastgrowthdrivenbyrisingproductioncapacityandtechnicalupgradingProcesscontrolwhichisindispensabletotheyieldqualityandcapacityofchipmanufacturingasksforhigherprecisionandspeedofRDandHVMIn2020KLAtookasmuchas508ofworldmarketshareofsemiconductormeasurementequipmentInfaceofdangerfromscienceandtechdecouplingChinawilltrytoencourageimportsubstitution28In2021China-mademeasurementequipmenttookonly2domesticmarketsharewhichsuggestshugepotentialofimportsubstitutionOfthecompaniesintheindustrialchaintheleadingforeignmanufacturersincludeKLAAppliedMaterialsHitachiRaytekandCreativeChinesesuppliersincludeSkyverseRSICPrecisionMeasurementOptimaDJELAngstromandAvantsemiLatestReportsHisenseHomeAppliances000921OWTPRMB1712RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB1712PrvRMB1712MPRMB1449Mkt-CapRMB19746mnTheCompanydiscloseditsequityincentiveplanBasedonthisincentiveplantheCompanyisexpectedtorealize2023-2025netprofitgrowthratesof100168and166yoywhicharerelativelyhighcomparedtoitspeersWemaintainourforecastsoftheCompanys2022-2024EPSofRMB137bn41yoy165bn20yoyand195bn18yoyWemaintaintargetpriceofRMB1712andOverweightrating38SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateDecember4th2022A-ShareStrategyWeeklyIncreaseRiskExposureforNewOpportunitiesWeadvisetomoderatelyincreaseriskexposurefornewopportunitiesSinceOctober16ourreportshaverevealedouroptimismaboutthemarketoutlookAfteranintervalofmanyyearstheauthorityapprovedrealestateequityre-financingrecentlyTherecentfastereasingofpandemiccontrolpoliciesalsoreflectedthatthegovernmenthadstartedtostressoneconomicgrowthagainnotethefinancialpolicyeasingin2014didpushupstockmarketdespitethedeteriorationofeconomicfundamentalsThesewillimprovethecross-yeareconomicexpectationsandriskappetitefortheyear2023WepredictthenetprofitofallA-sharesexcludingfinancialsectortorise10TheriskpremiumandvaluationofShanghaiCompositearealso10belowtheirhistoricalaveragebuttheirrecoverycannotbedoneinstantlyLowriskappetiteinvestorshavealreadybeguntoreplenishtheirpositionswhilehighriskappetiteinvestorsremainactiveinstockmarkettransactionsMeanwhilethedeclineofUSdollarinterestrateandthereboundofRMBexchangeratehavebothmadeRMB-denominatedassetsmoreattractiveEveniftherearesomedownwardcorrectionslatertheywillnotgotoofarbecauseoftheturnaroundofmarketexpectationsandthelowstockvaluationsandpricesInsteadatthismomentlargerpositionandexposureofriskassetswillhelptocatchthenewopportunitiesarisingfromnewmarginalandcyclicalopportunitiesItisadvisabletotakeadvantageofthemarketsetbackstoincreasepositionsBluechipsfirstthengrowthstocksDuetotheuncertaintiesofpandemicsituationandtheenduringweaknessofrealestateindustrythenear-termEPSin2022Q4-2023Q1canhardlyrevealsustainableimprovementofbusinessperformancesinfutureWefoundthreecommoncharacteristicsofprevioustwobullmarkets2014H22015H12019drivenbylowstockvaluationdespiteslowbusinessprofitgrowth1recordlowstockvaluation2turnaroundofkeyfactorsfinancein2014consumptionin2019and3theappearanceofaseconddriveregInternetandMadebyChina2025in2015theriseofsemiconductorand5Gcommunicationsectorsin2019whentheexpectationsforcontinuouseconomicrecoveryfailedNowtheconditionsarealmostthesamelowstockvaluationturnaroundofkeyfactorsandslackfundamentalsbutpowerfulindustrialpolicysupportsIn2022defensivesectorsofgoodprofitgrowthandcashflowoutperformedothersInfuturedespitetheuncertaintiesofthepathsofmacroeconomicrecoveryitisadvisabletoemployamoreactiveportfoliostructurebymeansoftakingtherecoveringassetsielowvaluationatpresentbuthugerpotentialofrecoveryin2023and48emergingassetsieengaginginindustrialtransformationandupgradingimportsubstitutionandfast-growthindustriesbluechipsfirstandthengrowthstocksAmajorthreadisthereconstructionofacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsThevaluationsystemintheWeststressesonbusinessefficiencyprofitgrowthandthereturnofprivateshareholdersItslowstate-ownedinterestratiotradablemarketvalueofSOEsandlocalSOEscloseto45oftotalisnothighenoughtoreflectthesocialresponsibilitieseconomiccostsandindustrialchainleadershipoftheenterprisesAfterCSRCchairmanYiHuimanpledgedtoexploreandconstructacapitalmarketvaluationsystemofChinesecharacteristicsShanghaiStockExchangeworkedoutits3-yearActionPlanofComprehensiveServicesforSOEsclaimingtohelptorestorethereasonablevaluationofSOEstohelptopushforwardtheprofessionalizedrestructuringofSOEsandtohelptoimprovethemoderncorporatesystemofChinesecharacteristicsInhistorySOEreformswerealwaysthesaverandstabilizerofbearmarketsinChinaNowisjustthemomentofthestartingpointofChinese-stylecapitalmarketvaluationconstructiontheendofthe3-yearplanofSOEreformsandthestartingpointofanewroundofSOEreformsthestartingpointoftheconstructionofaunifiedbignationalmarketandtheeveofthe10-yearanniversaryoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeThespeculationsonSOEreform-relatedthemesmaythriveagainespeciallythespeculationsontheSOEsinvolvedinindustrialintegrationandmanufacturingindustryupgradingAsforsectorallocationandthematicinvestmenttherearetwothreadsOneistherecoveryofcyclicalsectorstheheadrealestatedevelopersB-endbuildingmaterialsuppliersandbankinginsuranceandconstructionsectorsandconsumersectorsfoodbeverageretailingandmediasectorsTheotheristheexpansionofdomesticdemandfueledbythethemesofeconomictransformationindustrialupgradingandnationalsecurityandthebeneficiarysectorsincludepharmaceuticalandimport-substitutionandindustrialupgrading-relatedmanufacturingwarindustrycomputertelecommachineryandnewmaterialssteelnonferrousmetalschemicalsectorsForthematicinvestmentthekeythemesareSOEreformsBeltRoadInitiativeandelectricpowerspotmarketconstruction58GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticean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theissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithGeelyAutomobile00175HKSinotrans-Hshares00598HKBankofCommunications-Hshares03328HKJDcom09618HKBIDU-SW09888HKKingsoft03888HKNWS00659HKSenseTime-W00020HKChinaNonferrousMining01258HKJoySpreader06988HKGuangzhouAutomobile-Hshares02238HKChinaLesso02128HKKWGGroup01813HKCIFIHoldingsGroup00884HKZhenroProperties06158HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCountryGarden02007HKTencent00700HKAgileGroup03383HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKLoganGroup03380HKSUNAC01918HKNewWorldDevelopment00017HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKFOSUNINTL00656HKCITS01880HKHONGJIUFRUIT-Hshares06689HKCARSGEN02171HKChinaMinshengBankingCorp-Hshares01988HKGCLNewEnergy00451HKChowTaiFookJewellery01929HKIRICOGroupNewEnergy00438HKFinancialStreetProperty01502HKGOMEElectricalAppliances00493HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKAoyuanHealthyLifeGroup03662HKJinkeServices09666HKA-LIVING03319HKBankofGansu02139HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKBinhaiInvestment02886HKChinaSouthCity01668HKChinaRisunGroup01907HKYEAHKA09923HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKAlibaba09988HKZhongliangHoldings02772HKSihuanPharmaceutical00460HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKDFZQ-Hshares03958HKCGNPower-Hshares01816HKCGNMeiyaPower01811HKCGNMining01164HKJiangsuExpressway00177HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKGreentownChina03900HKChervon02285HKAsymchem-Hshares06821HKXPENG09868HKNAYUKI02150HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKCIFIESService01995HKSinopecKantons00934HKSINOPECEngineering-Hshares02386HKSPC00338HKChinaPetroleumChemical-Hshares00386HKPOPMART09992HKCHENMING01812HKLeeManPaper02314HKSMOORE06969HKZGCTecLeasing01601HKKANZHUNLIMITEDBZUSTencentMusicEntertainmentGroupTMEUSDiDiDIDIUSBilibiliIncBILIUSZhihuZHUSNIONIOUSJDcomJDUSFutuFUTUUSSinopecSNPUSSINOTRANS601598SHMACALLINE601828SHGACGROUP601238SHHUNDSUN600570SHCHINASUNTIENGREENENERGY600956SHCCB601939SHFANGDACARBON600516SHCITS601888SHLUANEED601699SHCMB600036SHINDUSTRIALBANK601166SHBANKOFCHONGQING601963SHORIENTSECURITIES600958SHJIANGSUEXPRESS600377SHBANKCOMM601328SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHBBMG601992SHSPC600688SHSINOPECCORP600028SHGXHT002074SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZJINKE000656SZYCC000878SZCGN003816SZEASTMONEY300059SZCASYMCHEM002821SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZLBG002601SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofChinaLifeInsurance-Hshares02628HKTencent00700HKWuXiBiologics02269HKMeituan-W03690HKCNOOC00883HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-Hshares00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKAlibaba09988HKNetease09999HKJDcom09618HKSMIC00981HKAlibabaHealth00241HKBIDU-SW09888HKLenovo00992HKChinaMobile-Hshares00941HKHongKongExchangesandClearing00388HKGalaxyEntertainment00027HKGreatWallMotor-Hshares02333HKAIA01299HKSandsChina01928HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-Hshares06030HKAACTechnologiesHoldings02018HKSunnyOpticalTechnology02382HKSinopharmGroup-Hshares01099HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKBYDCompany-Hshares01211HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKIndustrialandCommercialBankofChina-Hshares01398HKBOCHongKong02388HKBankofChina-Hshares03988HKHSBC0000578HKPingAnInsurance-Hshares02318HKSUNAC01918HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentIndexover15suggestionsCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengInvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCompanyOverweightIndexbetween5and15ratingandsectorratingRatingIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengThemarketperformancewithinthe12NeutralIndexbetween-5and5monthsafterthepublicationofthereportisDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengconsideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkUnderweightIndexover5TheincreaseanddecreaseoftheSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangcompanysstockpriceorindustryindexOverweightSengIndexwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HanginthesameperiodUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdJinganDistrictShanghai20004186213867-6666Shanghai18FSouthBuildingFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialBeijing10003286108393-9888StreetXichengDistrictBeijing27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRoadFutianShenzhen518026867552397-6888DistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2023CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved88