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>> 国泰君安-Market Strategy:The Fed Remains Hawkish But Markets Are Betting at Their Own Peril-230106
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研究报告全文:ResearchEquityMarketStrategy6January2023EvanLi85225095375evanligtjascomhkTheFedRemainsHawkishButMarketsAreBettingatTheirOwnPerilSummaryStrategyReportHigherandforlongerbuthowhighwillratesriseandwhenwilltheUSFederalReservestopraisingratesIndicatedfrommarketexpectationsinNovember2022investorsseemtobelessconflictedontheUSFederalReservestheFed50basispointratehikeinDecemberThemarketiseagertoknowhowhighrateswillriseandwhenwilltheFedstopraisingratesHowwilltheFedreacttoslowinflationbutatightlabormarketTheNovembernonfarmpayrollsandCPIIndexreportsareessentialreferencesfortheDecembermeetingandthetworeadingsweremixedBothheadlineandcoreCPIwerelowerthanexpectedwhilethelabormarketremainsextremelytightHowtheFedreactstothetworeportswilldeliverakeymessagetoindicatewhentheFedwillstopraisingratesTheFedhikedratesby50bpasexpectedandprojectedraisingratesashighas51in2023whiletheimpliedterminalratefromtheinterestratesmarketisstillaround49ThesummaryofeconomicResearchReportprojectionsSEPisgenerallyhawkishWhilerevisingdownUSeconomicgrowthforecaststheFedalsorevisedupinflationandinterestrateprojectionsEquityThelabormarketmightbetheprimaryindicatorfortheFedtowatchFedChairPowellreiteratedhisstanceonarestrictivepolicyHeacknowledgedthatinflationiseasingandbelievedhousingactivitywouldweakenfurtherinthefirsthalfof2023ButhealsoemphasizedthatthelabormarketremainsextremelytightandwagegrowthelevatedwhichcontributedtoupwardpressureoncurrentinflationThusongoinghikeswouldbeappropriateAfterinflationpeaksthetimingforliquidity-motivatedtradingneedstoawaitaturningpointoftheFedspolicyrateexceedinginflationAstheFedcontinuestoraiseratesandUSinflationgraduallyeasesweexpectthattheFedspolicyratemayexceedtheinflationlevelinQ1of2023Historicallyliquidity-motivatedtradingusuallymovesaheadwheninflationpeaksThehighofUSStrategyTreasuryratesusuallyoccursafterthepeakofinflationandbeforetheendpointofratehikesThusthecurrentUSTreasuryratesmightnotyethavereacheditspeakduringthecurrenthikecycleInadditiontheremaybeMarketacertaindownwardrevisioninUSstockearningsexpectationsoverthesecondhalfofthehikecyclesignalingthattheremaybedownsideriskinequitiesTheFedsratehikesarenotoveryetbutmarketsarebettingattheirownperil1USstocksThebetonliquidityreversalwillcontinueandpressureonUSstockvaluationsandearningswillgraduallyincrease2USTreasuryThe10-yearUSTreasuryratespaceforupsideisrelativelycappedwhileitmayhavealotfurthertofall3Goldmightremainvolatileintheshorttermwhileattractivenessinthemid-to-longtermisedgingupRiskwarningLarger-than-forecastedFedrateriseacceleratedglobaleconomicrecessionintensifiedfinancialmarketrisksSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of201Whatneeds1tobeFOMCmeetingnotedDecemberfortheContents4IntheInthehow4shorttermpricesassetmovewillpeakedHowasset3movepricesonhistoricwillUStrendshasbasedinflationwhenprojectedfundisratehigherhikesRateand2economicforecastsFedaligntheexpectationswhilewithSee32Thereexistsdownsiderisk32ainequitiesTheofinflationpeakto31notsufficienttheisratefollowingtrackhikes24AssetinteresandpricesThemarketlabor23primaryFedthemightforthebetoindicatorwatchTheprojectedFed22growthterminalslowereconomicbuthigherrateThereno21policywaschangeinthestatementHow12willratesraisingHigherforlon11thelastpagefordisclaimertheFedreacttoFedslowinflationmarketbuttightlaboragerhighbuthowratesrisewillandstoptheFedwhenwillPtratefuturestratemovemarketeralaktStrategyMarketPagePage2ofof2016131212108644333MarketStrategy6January2023SourcesFigure1000-400-200ervice2004006008000USUSSe-1-eprovidingindustryprovidingthBureauelasTotalTotalnonfarmthousandsover-the-monthchangeinGoods-producingService-providingGovernmenttNonofLaborofpagefarmfarmforandStatisticsanddisclaimerfpayrollseIndicatratesraisingstop11deliveramightrateinterestpolicythethanyeartrendlowerthedatainflationhourlyearningsshortpayrollsmeetingDecemberNovemberThe1Fedwouldtheinvestorsandrates7050ReservesFederalGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaill12-slightlybasisWhatHowwillHowlyHigherforlongerbuthowhighwillratesriseandwhenwilltheFedFedthewillwhenandriserateswillhighhowbutlongerforHigher-termAstheAsTheinTheDecemberFOMCDecemberTheedreflectthatthelaborthethatreflectnltohhousingTheinflationpointratehikeinDecemberinhikeratepointfrommarketexpectationsinthepastmonthmarketiseagertoknowtoeagerismarketlaborsupplyisunlikelytoimprovesignificantlyimprovetounlikelyissupplylaborneedsinarearelagraiseinterestthekeymessagekeyPgrnonowthkeentoknowtokeeneffectsgraduallyrecedegraduallyeffectsFedreacttoslowinflationbutinflationslowtoreactFedthetimetheofMostDecemberinhikeratepointbasis50andthetwoandtheamarlsnCInereportsIndexCPIandpayrollsfarmtobenotedforthetheisis-thanstillstillelevatedratesaboveratesinthefirsthalfof2023ofhalffirstthein-tomarketisstillrelativelystillismarketexpectedinflationdatainNovemberagainNovemberindatainflationexpectedmeetingwillmeeting-04-02SourceintheFigurethethe000204060810indexaaindexreadingsreadingstheupdatedratehikepathaspathhikerateupdatedtheaudienceaudiencehowhighhowOUSUSimpliedimpliedprivateprivate-2thepreviouslyprojectedt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