>> 国泰君安-A-Share Market Strategy Weekly：The Bull Rests-230212
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2023/2/13 |
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国泰君安 |
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研究报告全文：StockMarketthA-ShareMarketStrategyWeeklyFebruary122023TheBullRestsStrategyResearchTeamFANGYianalystTel021-38031658FANGYianalystGUOYinhanassistantTANGWenqinganalystEmailfangyi020833gtjascomLicenseNoS0880118080080021-38031658021-38031681021-38676434fangyi020833gtjascomguoyinhan026925gtjascomtangwenqing027314gtjascomHUANGWeichianalystStrategyReportTel021-38032684S0880118080080S0880122080038S0880522100002EmailhuangweichigtjascomLicenseNoS0880520110005SummarySUHuianalystTel021-38676434Emailsuhui012865gtjascomLicenseNoS0880516080006A-sharemarketenteredcorrectionsContrarytotheprevailingoptimisticsentimentsChinastockmarketenteredcontinuouscorrectionsaftertheLunarCHENXimiaoanalystNewYearaswehadanticipatedOnlyfewbroad-basedindicessuchasCNITel021-380316552000andCSI1000recordedpositivegainsThediscrepancybetweenEmailchenximiaogtjascommarketsentimentsandmarketperformancewasbecausethedeclineofmacroLicenseNoS0880520120004riskshadalreadybeenpricedinInordertorepeatthebullishtrendstrongernewpolicysupportsareneededButthisisunlikelytocometrueuntiltheTANGWenqinganalystTel021-38676434governmentelectionandtheNPCCPPCCthisMarchareoverAnywayEmailtangwenqing027314gtjascomthemedium-termoutlookisstillfineTheslowdownofsocialfinancinggrowthLicenseNoS0880522100002andthepoorsocialfinancingstructureespeciallyhouseholdfinancingareexpectedtotriggerfurtherpolicystimuluslaterThereforeitisadvisabletoZHANGYifeiassitantmakeuseofthecurrentmarketcorrectionstobuildlow-costpositionsTel021-38038662Emailzhangyifei026726gtjascomAtpresentSMEstocksarebetterthanlarge-caponesBeforethearrivalLicenseNoS0880122070056ofnewinformationeggovernmentpoliciesorbusinessresultsmarketspeculationswillspeaklouderthanmarketexpectationsDuringthetimeGUOYinhanassitantwindowbeforetheNPCCPPCCthisMarchmarketspeculationsarelikelytoTel021-38031691focusonSMEstocksInhistorywhenthemacroriskswererelativelysmallEmailguoyinhan026925gtjascomriskappetitewouldgoupandfuelthematicinvestmentDuringtheperiodLicenseNoS0880122080038betweenLunarNewYearandNPCCPPCCin2010-2022mostbroad-basedTIANKaixuanassitantindiceshadlargerchancetogoupespeciallySMEindicessuchasCNI2000Tel021-38038673andCSI1000GrowthsectorswouldoutperformcyclicalsectorsandthenEmailtiankaixuan026724gtjascomconsumersectorsAtpresentsmallernorthboundnetcashinflowandhighLicenseNoS0880122070045positionsofpublicfundsandverysmallnetcashinflowfromhouseholdsectorssuggestlarge-capbluechipsmaynolongerbethemarketfavoritesGUOYinhanassistantaftertheriseofriskappetiteSMEstocksandthematicinvestmentsectorsTel021-38031681shallhavebetterchancebeforetheNPCCPPCCthisMarchwebelieveEmailguoyinhan026925gtjascomLicenseNoS0880122080038AsforsectorallocationweprefertraditionalindustrialchainsandsciencetechhardwaresectorsIndetailweprefer1recoveryofsupplyanddemandaftertheLunarNewYearhomeapplianceshouseholdsuppliesinnovativedrugsandmedicalinstruments2heatedinvestmentmachinery3shortageofsupplyrareearthandagriculturalchemicals4commercializationofAIelectronictelecomandcomputerAsforthematicinvestmentandindividualstocksweprefer1high-endmanufacturinggeneral-purposeautomationNeway688697OKE688308Yizumi300415high-endequipmentZoomlion000157ChangshengBearings300718GoodWe688390smartpowergridWillfar688100automotivepartsIKE600933Rayhoo0029972highseasonhouseholdbuildingmaterialsOrientalYuhong002271Kibing601636homeappliancesHisense000921Zbom603801industrialmetalsChihongZiGe600497oilshippingCOSCOShippingEnergyTransportation6000263virtualrealityHYC688001Zhaowei003021Luxshare0024754AIhardwareEoptolink300502Iflytek002230Hygon6880415robotLeaderHarmonious688017Guomao6039156foodsecurityDabeinong002385YLPAgriculture000998本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告A股策周报报告观点及内容如有任何一致的地方一以该简体中文版报告为准PleasereadthelastpageforexplanationofratingsanddisclaimerGTJAsRatingsonStockOverweightOWStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300byover15inthenext6-12monthsConservativelyOverweightCOStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300by5-15inthenext6-12monthsNeutralNTStockisexpectedtoperformwithin-55ofCSI300inthenext6-12monthsUnderweightUWStockisexpectedtounderperformCSI300byover5inthenext6-12monthsGTJAsRatingsonIndustryOverweightOWIndustrialindexisexpectedtooutperformCSI300inthenext6-12monthsNeutralNTIndustrialindexisexpectedtogoalmostwithCSI300inthenext6-12monthsUnderweightUWIndustrialindexisexpectedtounderperformCSI300inthenext6-12monthsGuotaiJunanSecuritiesShanghaiOffice20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdShanghai200041Tel862138676666ShenzhenOffice27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRdShenzhen518026Tel8675523976888BeijingOffice18FSouthTowerFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialStreetBeijing100132Tel861083939888WebsitewwwgtjacomHE-MAILgtjaresearchgtjascomHDisclaimerThisreportissubmittedtoforthereferenceofselectedclientsandotherprofessionalinvestorsanddoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertosubscribeforbuyorsellsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesThoughbesteffortshavebeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisresearchreportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinUndernocircumstanceshallGuotaiJunanbeliabletoanyconsequenceofinvestorsinvestmentdecisionbasedonthisreportGuotaiJunananditsaffiliatedorassociatedinstitutionsmayatanytimeholdatradingpositionoforprovideinvestmentbankingfinancialconsultationorotherservicestoanysubjectcompanydiscussedinthisreportAnyunauthorizeddistributionandorcirculationofthisreportorthecopythereofbeyondtheintendedscopewouldresultinpossibleviolationofpertinentsecuritieslaws
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