>> 国泰君安-Morning Brief-230214
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研究报告全文：1957609S0880511010009报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版kangkaigtjascomTPRMB4200TPRMB2626OWOWReportReport23976023TPRMB795Special603043Viewpoint6051890755UpdateReportOWMonththeWeaveWeeklySectorUpdateBriefAllocationofRestaurant2023000157thDyeAsset14SectorStrategyKaiRatingsReportsRecommendationsFuchunConstructionSteelActiveGuangzhouZoomlionKANGSectorMarketLatestTop本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告为准ContentsFebruaryMorningMarketResearchMorningBriefTopRecommendationsGuangzhouRestaurant603043OWTPRMB4200RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB4200PrvNAMPRMB2760MktCapRMB15687mnBecauseoftheanticipatedhotsalesofmooncakesandthedecreaseofpackagingcostin2023weadjustourforecastsoftheCompanys20222024EPStoRMB10951413and1651Currentstockpricecorrespondsto20222024PEof24x18xand16xWeareoptimisticabouttherecoveryofconsumerexpendituresandcustomervisitsweraisetargetpricetoRMB42andmaintainOverweightratingZoomlion000157OWTPRMB795RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB795PrvNAMPRMB645MktCapRMB55973mnDuetothecontinuousdeclineofconstructionmachineryindustrysince2022andtheslacknewstartsofrealestateandinfrastructureprojectswelowerourforecastsoftheCompanys20222024EPStoRMB026061053050and067051Butbecausethesalesofhostingmachineryandcementmachinerymaystarttorecoverin2023andbecausethespinofflistingoftheCompanyssubsidiaryforkliftcompanywillexpandtheCompanysfinancingchannelswesuggest2023PEof15xandlowerthecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB795OverweightratingmaintainedConstructionSectorUpdateReportIntermsofPVperovskitebatterytechourprimaryrecommendationisHangxiaoSteelStructure600477IntermsofelectricpowersystemreformsofChinaourprimaryrecommendationisPowerChina6016691TherisingproductioncapacityutilizationratiosandtheinventoryreplenishingaftertheLunarNewYearsentPVupstreamproductspricesskyrocketingsuchassiliconmaterialssiliconslicesandcellslicesHoweverbecausetherehadbeenlittlemarkdownofmodulepricesbeforetheLunarNewYearmodulepricesremainstableonthewholewithaverageNtypemodulepricesatRMB178190watt2OfBIPVproducersourprimaryrecommendationisHangxiaoSteelStructure600477Thepilotscaleproductionofitsperovskitecrystallinesiliconfilmlaminatedbatteryconversionefficiencyatabove28nowproductionline100megawattistoentermassproductionsoonandtheproductlifespanisdesignedtobe25yearsindustrialstandard3IntermsofelectricpowersystemreformsofChinaourprimaryrecommendationisPowerChina601669whichisanEPCandoperatorofelectricpowerbothSteelSectorUpdateReportWemaintainOverweightratingforthesteelsectorThePBofsteelsectorisnowinbottomareaanditssecondarymarketpricesarebadlyundervaluedWepreferthecompaniesofhighdividendlowvaluationlowpositionandlowmarket26expectationOffeaturedcompanieswerecommend1theleadingordinarysteelproducersoflowcostandefficientmanagementFangdaSpecialSteel600507ValinSteel000932BaoSteel600019Shougang000959andTaigangStainlessSteel0008252theleadingspecialsteelproducersCITICSpecialSteel000708JiuliMetal002318ToLandAlloy300855FushunSpecialSteel600399YongjinMetal603995andWangbianElectric6031913newmaterialsFangdaCarbon600516graphiteelectrodesYueanAdvancedMaterials688786carbonylironpowderPocoHolding300811softmagneticpowdercoreYitongNewMaterials300930ironbasedpowder4naturalresourcesDazhongMining001203andHBISResources000923ironorePangangVT000629vanadiumtitaniumAnning002978titaniumconcentrateYongxingSpecialMaterials002756lithiumoreBaotouSteel600010rareearthand5pipelinesXinxingPipes000778andShengtak300881ultrasupercriticalboilertubeActiveAssetAllocationSpecialReport1Outlook2023Smallcapbalancedstrategieswillhavemorechancesin2023H1andmediumcapgrowthstrategieswillhavemorechancesin2023H22ScenariosIftheriseofinventoriesisfasterthanexpectationitwillfavorlargecapvaluestrategiesanddisfavorsmallcapgrowthstrategiesIftheriseofUSfinancialcycleisfasterthanexpectationitwillfavorlargecapgrowthstrategiesanddisfavorsmallcapvaluestrategies3AllocationStrategySuggestionThemacroenvironmentin2023isdifferentfromthatin20162017and20142015WesuggestbalancedallocationonthewholeAtthesametimemediumcapgrowthstrategiesmayhavebetterreturnForthetimebeingthevaluationsofSTAR50andCSI500indicesarelowenoughforpositionbuildingLatestReportsFuchunDyeWeave605189OWTPRMB2626RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB2626PrvRMB2296MPRMB2195MktCapRMB2739mnDuetotheunsatisfactoryearningsoftheCompanyin2022welowerourforecastsoftheCompanys20222024EPSfromRMB181232and297toRMB137202and270ButtheCompanydeservessomepremiuminstockvaluationforitsleadingpositioninindustryandsolidprofitgrowthinfutureWesuggest2023PEof13xhigherthansectoraverageandraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB2626Overweightratingmaintained36SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateFebruary12th2023AShareStrategyWeeklyTheBullRestsAsharemarketenteredcorrectionsContrarytotheprevailingoptimisticsentimentsChinastockmarketenteredcontinuouscorrectionsaftertheLunarNewYearaswehadanticipatedOnlyfewbroadbasedindicessuchasCNI2000andCSI1000recordedpositivegainsThediscrepancybetweenmarketsentimentsandmarketperformancewasbecausethedeclineofmacroriskshadalreadybeenpricedinInordertorepeatthebullishtrendstrongernewpolicysupportsareneededButthisisunlikelytocometrueuntilthegovernmentelectionandtheNPCCPPCCthisMarchareoverAnywaythemediumtermoutlookisstillfineTheslowdownofsocialfinancinggrowthandthepoorsocialfinancingstructureespeciallyhouseholdfinancingareexpectedtotriggerfurtherpolicystimuluslaterThereforeitisadvisabletomakeuseofthecurrentmarketcorrectionstobuildlowcostpositionsAtpresentSMEstocksarebetterthanlargecaponesBeforethearrivalofnewinformationeggovernmentpoliciesorbusinessresultsmarketspeculationswillspeaklouderthanmarketexpectationsDuringthetimewindowbeforetheNPCCPPCCthisMarchmarketspeculationsarelikelytofocusonSMEstocksInhistorywhenthemacroriskswererelativelysmallriskappetitewouldgoupandfuelthematicinvestmentDuringtheperiodbetweenLunarNewYearandNPCCPPCCin20102022mostbroadbasedindiceshadlargerchancetogoupespeciallySMEindicessuchasCNI2000andCSI1000GrowthsectorswouldoutperformcyclicalsectorsandthenconsumersectorsAtpresentsmallernorthboundnetcashinflowandhighpositionsofpublicfundsandverysmallnetcashinflowfromhouseholdsectorssuggestlargecapbluechipsmaynolongerbethemarketfavoritesaftertheriseofriskappetiteSMEstocksandthematicinvestmentsectorsshallhavebetterchancebeforetheNPCCPPCCthisMarchwebelieveAsforsectorallocationweprefertraditionalindustrialchainsandsciencetechhardwaresectorsIndetailweprefer1recoveryofsupplyanddemandaftertheLunarNewYearhomeapplianceshouseholdsuppliesinnovativedrugsandmedicalinstruments2heatedinvestmentmachinery3shortageofsupplyrareearthandagriculturalchemicals4commercializationofAIelectronictelecomand46computerAsforthematicinvestmentandindividualstocksweprefer1highendmanufacturinggeneralpurposeautomationNeway688697OKE688308Yizumi300415highendequipmentZoomlion000157ChangshengBearings300718GoodWe688390smartpowergridWillfar688100automotivepartsIKE600933Rayhoo0029972highseasonhouseholdbuildingmaterialsOrientalYuhong002271Kibing601636homeappliancesHisense000921Zbom603801industrialmetalsChihongZiGe600497oilshippingCOSCOShippingEnergyTransportation6000263virtualrealityHYC688001Zhaowei003021Luxshare0024754AIhardwareEoptolink300502Iflytek002230Hygon6880415robotLeaderHarmonious688017Guomao6039156foodsecurityDabeinong002385YLPAgriculture00099856GTJAsRatingsonStockOverweightOWStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300byover15inthenext612monthsCautiouslyOverweightCOStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300by515inthenext612monthsNeutralNTStockisexpectedtoperformwithin55ofCSI300inthenext612monthsUnderweightUWStockisexpectedtounderperformCSI300byover5inthenext612monthsGTJAsRatingsonIndustryOverweightOWIndustrialindexisexpectedtooutperformCSI300inthenext612monthsNeutralNTIndustrialindexisexpectedtogoalmostwithCSI300inthenext612monthsUnderweightUWIndustrialindexisexpectedtounderperformCSI300inthenext612monthsGuotaiJunanSecuritiesShanghaiOffice20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdShanghai200041Tel862138676666ShenzhenOffice27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRdShenzhen518026Tel8675523976888BeijingOffice18FSouthTowerFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialStreetBeijing100132Tel861083939888WebsitewwwgtjacomEMAILgtjaresearchgtjascomDisclaimerThisreportissubmittedtoforthereferenceofselectedclientsandotherprofessionalinvestorsanddoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertosubscribeforbuyorsellsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesThoughbesteffortshavebeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisresearchreportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinUndernocircumstanceshallGuotaiJunanbeliabletoanyconsequenceofinvestorsinvestmentdecisionbasedonthisreportGuotaiJunananditsaffiliatedorassociatedinstitutionsmayatanytimeholdatradingpositionoforprovideinvestmentbankingfinancialconsultationorotherservicestoanysubjectcompanydiscussedinthisreportAnyunauthorizeddistributionandorcirculationofthisreportorthecopythereofbeyondtheintendedscopewouldresultinpossibleviolationofpertinentsecuritieslaws66
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