投资逻辑
　　一、卡车物流:2023年春节假期后第一周，全国卡车物流周环比增加82%，相较去年春节同期增加15%。相较去年春节三周，城市卡车物流同比值出现分化，上海/苏州分别下滑29%/23%，郑州/天津/安阳分别增加5%/22%/63%。关注后续全国各省市卡车物流恢复情况。
　　二、迁徙人流:2022年1月1日以来，全国高线省市累计人口流入出现明显负增长趋势。截至2023年2月6日，深圳/上海/北京累计人口流动指数分别为-425/-229/-2.66，劳务大省湖南/江西/安徽分别增加267/178/168。
　　三、医院人流:受春节假期影响，全国主要城市三甲医院指数出现回落，上海市三甲医院人流指数相较去年春节同期下降21%，北京三甲医院人流指数较去年春节同期下降13%。
　　四、线上消费:电商活跃度环比回落，线上药品需求降低。2023年1月31日至2月6日，代表快递企业周度订单强度环比改善，环比提升26%，约为去年同期的154%，主要由于春节时间错位影响。线下消费活跃度增强，一月电商用户活跃度回落，且MAU的环比回落程度高于DAU，淘宝1月MAU同比1.7%，环比-2.8%;京东1月MAU同比16%，环比-4%;拼多多1月MAU同比8.7%，环比-6.1%。互联网医疗渠道高增速，随着用户健康情况好转，周度销售额呈抵减趋势，药品需求降低。代表互联网医疗平台1月GMV同比101%。
　　五、线上生活娱乐:春节返工后外卖、在线办公、出行活跃环比持续回暖。1月31日~2月6日，1)外卖:春节返工后需求环比持续回暖。美团APP周均DAU环比上升2%，同比增长50%，饿了么APP周均DAU环比上升4%，同比增长66%。2）出行:环比持续恢复。1月31日～~2月6日，滴滴周均DAU同比上升13%，周度环比增长6%。高德地图周均DAU同比增长26%，周度环比上升1%。3）消费人次:返工后消费人数及场景增多，用户活跃环比表现小幅上涨。1月31日～2月6日，支付宝周均DAU环比上升4%，微信支付周均DAU达到6.44亿，环比上升1%。
　　六,出行:开工后高线城市本地出行回升较快,眷运结构上维持K型复苏特征。一线城市北上广深截至2023.2.7(T+16)分别恢复至2019年农历同期84%/89%/93%/139%。2023.2.7春运第32天全国共发送旅客恢复至2019年同期50.4%。从前32天数据看春运恢复度低于此前交通部预测数据（70%)，结构上呈现“K型特征”，民航、铁路交恢复度更高。
　　七、餐饮:穗步恢复,节后一线回暖较快。防疫放开+假期带动，1月我们追踪的代表连锁餐饮品牌当月营收同比+17%，超过2022年单月最高水平; 2.7(T+16）全国同店流水分别恢复至22年、21年同期90%、72%(春节期间7天累计为103%,、68%),从对比21年数据看，节后稳步恢复中(对比22年近期有所下滑推测与22年情人节离春节更近有关);分城市线，一线/二线/三线及以下城市，较22春节同期恢复度89%/87%/93%，较21春节同期恢复度77%/67%/76%。
　　八、酒旅:OTA活跃度继续回暖，热门异地游目的地航班继续上修。2022.01.31~2023.02.06携程周均DAU同比11%,，环比上一周的9%小范围提升。国内热门旅游目的地机场数据看，三亚、云南（昆明+西双版纳+丽江)、长春、厦门客运航班截至2.7分别回升至2019年春节同期101%/88%/117%/84%。宋城演艺开工后演出场次较假期有所回落，但相比节前有明显回暖，最新2.8合计场次为9场。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复持续时间或存在不确定性;线下客流恢复受阻、门店/渠道拓展不及预期;宏观经济增长放缓的幅度和时间超预期的风险;数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年2月9日买入维持评级消费行业研究行业专题研究报告证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师廖馨瑶执业S1130522060005分析师许孟婕执业S1130522080003联系人叶思嘉liaoxinyaogjzqcomcnxumengjiegjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn联系人俞敏浩yuminhaogjzqcomcn开工第一周数据稳步回暖中-012345674895-A1BC-D45EFA9GHIJK5LMNOPJQRSTN5UPNVWNXYJQBNNZC267FabcCdefg-hijk567lmFnogpqHIrstuvwCxy-hZi5zNLMNnogpJQBNTNZZ5NNXJQZNNZCDg01567EFDHI5LMFDg-A1R5Dg-A1RCmL895mLC-hiyhZi5489589Z5-A1B5CmR5h589l5hA9589hA9Z589hA9589ZCl5bc54vw5ChA9CmL2mH89ChihZi5289C489L5A9uB5489L5A9uZZCH89aChihZi54A9L5489uZCl4A9uZ5489LCg2g589ILChihZi5489L54Z589LCH2lmEFH5-L012aO34CmEFL5zxy678ZJQayT-9A1NTNTNTC-3V67ayT-A1BCAVBC-aDAEFGHIB65LIJ1234K5LMNOEaPlCQRSTUa52mCVWX801Y5hZRSahbcA985de-hflg678Z67AhgJQay--A1T61VnoZ5i9-BC52TUaj6i9-k1lmRSnIo-bgpPklJEFm5mNdmNDmjREF5A1aTNNT5A1aNZNZCqrs7t5uvwxyMztLCZ4A9589L4TC7uvxyBC5D6r88uv-MzxyJQyT-A1NNNCE2H01lm59Alrs5foTCWbamRavhNH1uXdH1BoobcC23467Bdefg67lmFnogpqHIrstuvwZDg015EFDHImL895mLmL2mH89TH2lmEFH5-L012aO34QRSTUa52mBqrs7t5uvwxyMztLT67vwB67EFabcBZ7FgeqeHbcZFnogpbcBZ7FDZ44F45gT45g45gTqp45gT4T4T4TB45gZ45gEF6Py45gT45g45g45g45g45gl45gB45gZh45g45g45gTEFN-a6TEFEFa6T-6gNO6g-LM6gO6gB-gO6gZ7-Mza6T5PyNNZ7-Mza6T5PyNNZ-Mza6T5PyNNZTv-Mza6T5PyNNZRS6PyNNBRSga6PyNNBRSbvwBRSAhaBRSAha6ZBRSAha6ZZRSga6PyNNZ5PRSga6PyNNZzRSga6PyNNZTLMRSga6PyNNZB67lh6PyNNB67lh6PyNNB4BD-Mza6T5PyNNB-Mza6TPyNNBBu-Mza6TPyNNBZv-Mza6TPyNNBEH6PyNNTBEH6PyNNT67-345qa567895-A1BC--01234-5678019JEFkC523d45Z7FI89u5LMNOPNVWNUPJQ89uNTBNNC-D45EFA9GHIJK5LMNOPJQRSTN5UPNVWNXYJQBNNZC012345678-01234-5678019B-j-A2BV5Z75jLMzmEFIgpH5gpqfX55C9124A78-01234-5678019U5-hijk567lmFnogpqHIrstuvw5xy-hZi5zNLMNnogpJQBNTNZZ5NNXJQZNNZCZBCD4EFGH78-01234-5678019xy-hTi501567EFDHI5LMFDg-A1R5Dg-A1RCI124JKLMNOP-01234-5678019ABCDE2FGH8IJKLMNBOP-hiyhZi5489589Z5-A1B5CLM589CZ4-01234-56780194F-01234-5678019QRSRTUVAW2mL-hiyhZi54o1CmR5h589l5hA9589hA9Z589hA9589ZC252Cl5bc54vw5C-hA9C45gT45g-01234-5678019-01234-567801945gqp45g-01234-5678019-01234-567801944-01234-5678019-01234-56780194-01234-5678019mL2895Zc2mRH5mLmRlLC89u5aChihZi5489L5A9uB5489L5A9uZZCT-2UChihZi5489LB489uChihZi5489L5A9uB489LZ5A9uCm89ChihZi54iZZ589CB45gZ45g-01234-5678019-01234-5678019QR34STUVOPWXYZ0B-01234-567801945gT45g-01234-5678019-01234-567801945g45g-01234-5678019-01234-567801945g-01234-5678019mLCHa289aChihZi54B5A9L5489uZl45A9uZ5489LCmRa5eChihZi54589RSh45A9u589uBCg2g589ILChihZi54BT589L4Z589LC45gl45g-01234-5678019-01234-5678019B45gZh45g-01234-5678019-01234-567801945g45g-01234-5678019-01234-5678019KHN-BC5lmEF25mEFL5zxy678ZJQayT-A1NTNTNT534lm59014aB5le5CEFEFvw5Iw5xy678EFjdT-A1g5jZuZCTEFN-a6T上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2023-02-08T1789NA84NA1387188114NA129114NANANANANANANA2023-02-07T1694849313914479105132140152122310208135116517128872023-02-06T1591819013814677104128130156128292198129119478130852023-02-05T14524763106895882116121146102216172108106241114772023-02-04T1362508211210574921391451551062691961061103241261012023-02-03T12146147112177218104130159151200162385220155143484189832023-02-02T1113613610215718089115133142161144360199133131434145792023-02-01T1097859213514383108126143129125346202106117405137792023-01-31T99283871311438210212913112312431718893118387139722023-01-30T894838913614484109136138146131347205127122406147752023-01-29T784778712813082109125145152105333203130115372148772023-01-28T678788412112575101126123136128329165128104330142712023-01-27T583767911212981111126196128139354155132102262127642023-01-26T488718011412286108125224147132374143122127263125632023-01-25T375637210512081113126209154132404140129125216134592023-01-24T278596997109821051342241361164001491239722212951-XYZ8019EFEFa6T呼和浩乌鲁木北京上海广州深圳成都东莞杭州合肥南京宁波青岛苏州天津武汉西安长沙郑州重庆保定哈尔滨桂林哈尔滨济南兰州南昌三亚厦门石家庄沈阳太原西宁特齐2023-02-08T17121951021029610610385991071111041091261101169494112979397931059210410596112107104991102023-02-07T161159999107106110989510898115103108112102114861041091009610094106104901041081111021061001032023-02-06T1512110612011211312210410313011112012011011012312810010911910295102951121151031021091181011061031042023-02-05T1482839083919798858090958786981048397779299939978889186978493888899932023-02-04T138980918895100897877879584899011384958396849484798597809988928492100932023-02-03T121431321271221241151181191411181251291291461171561181361171161111161031311201241131201251261171031142023-02-02T11134126120119118112112114125112118121122134109141106122106114108114961191141091121151101211111011102023-02-01T101201011101051051081029210210110610411310611110695991071039910383103105951119710684106981012023-01-31T9115101103991041029989104998410010210010110293931019594956497100921059687998596942023-01-30T8117111109108113106103921081011091091141181151137310611010599105981111089511010311810591961022023-01-29T7109100105105116105104961061011081031041101191111061079197969795109108951101001141011011011002023-01-28T61101059910310910310597113101105107109111119111109101110101991019811210599110102116101103102992023-01-27T510010210010110610310198106100102104103100921068510210210199101961091019810610210410199102992023-01-26T4991049910010310210196101100102104103103991041039998102101102981001039910010399101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