①下游亏损严重，或维持长期低库存水平。下游养殖及深加工市场持续亏损背景下，对上游的高价玉米接受程度差，因此当出现抛储稻谷信息的时候对市场产生一定的打击。
　　②进口玉米库存较高。进口玉米的港口库存在持续增加，挤压内贸玉米库存。
　　总结：上周玉米价格回落，受需求不佳影响，当前售粮进度还尚未赶上去年同期，玉米及淀粉未来走势依旧可能保持弱势。
　　

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报20230211库存压力下承压回落南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存2971天周环比减少144天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为57较上期增加4较去年同期增加2空饲料养殖1312饲料企业波动不大但同比偏低多北方港口库存1973万吨同比减少19万吨当周北方港口下淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米3629万吨较前一周增加889万吨库存海量126万吨同比增加1万吨广东内贸库存311万吨较中淀粉深加工企业玉米库存3976万吨环比增加513呈现季节性回多上周增加17万吨外贸库存1349万吨较上周增加138万吨升向往期库存靠近进口美玉米累计出口给中国4057万吨本周出口至中国109吨空酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米3586万吨环比上调161万吨中近期现货保持坚挺期货跟随现货上扬基差本周出现较大玉米基差多淀粉期现5月基差收敛明显多收敛美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至2月2日当周美出口2223年美玉米多其他因素未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口但整体量有限且周期偏长空度玉米130055万吨其中单周为3949万吨消费弱势承压下落下游亏损严重或维持长期低库存水平下游养殖及深加工市场持续亏损背景下对上游的高价玉米接受程度差因此当出现抛储稻谷信息的时候对市场观点产生一定的打击进口玉米库存较高进口玉米的港口库存在持续增加挤压内贸玉米库存总结上周玉米价格回落受需求不佳影响当前售粮进度还尚未赶上去年同期玉米及淀粉未来走势依旧可能保持弱势策略反弹做空为主技术分析玉米回落后再度拉涨10日均线对期价有较强支撑淀粉波动较玉米更大回撤幅度也更大但仍受10日均线支撑且10日均线向上穿过60日均线美玉米风险海外市场波动美元指数波动影响价格港口库存变化重新站上60日均线走势重新转强玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C012744-10-036锦州港2830-40-7108C052801-45-158蛇口港2950-60113128玉米CC092790-28-099四平2740-20-9788玉米主力2769-68-246C2303潍坊28000-3768CS013049-27-088黑龙江2900-3013-24CS052992-47-155吉林300001136淀粉CSCS093082-10-032河北310002136淀粉主力2887-6-021CS2303山东3100-202136CBOT玉米玉米主力68075375055ZC2303期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-5735锦州港-蛇口港-12020玉米C05-0911-17玉米现货锦州港-四平90-2009-014626锦州港-潍坊30-4001-055720黑龙江-吉林-100-30淀粉CS05-09-90-37淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-200-3009-013330黑龙江-山东-200-10仓单数据仓单增减仓单数据仓单增减进口利润价格涨跌利润增减美西地区279999591117001-12911玉米60767-5099淀粉14095-267美湾地区27590289221098-7892加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-23-4港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-350北方四港19730-2200企业库存97801720淀粉河北10广东内贸3110-1510可售库存6114库存山东-1010广东外贸13490881物理库存10317黑龙江-15981下游当周增减产量当周增减02酒精吉林-329-12饲料企业2971167-14433全国2532-298玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货继续下跌整体重300034002950心下移290033002850320028002750310027002650300026002900美玉米先跌后涨255025002800强于国内玉米玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势玉米淀粉继续85031003300下跌跌幅大80030003200于玉米29007503100280030007002700290065026002800250060024002700550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差价差走势季节性回落03贴水055-9价差逼近于0玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942344557687283212941041842610911212411312112921422231732561718191101111121101217225312320328413421429515523531616624710718726811819827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327101106911916921926115125111118117124228126110131214221101110161110111511201125121512201225102610311130121010211118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291122121311151129122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货本周东北玉米价格偏弱节后市场购销逐步恢复基层上量增加供应相对宽松港口及深加工企业到货增加华北玉米先跌后稳企业到货量可以满足生产需要采购心态比较宽松华中玉米购销平淡长江沿线基本无到船成交清淡销区玉米弱态运行进口玉米库存较高挤压内贸玉米市场叠加北港平仓持续下跌销区港口报价随之持续下跌基差近期期现同步回落整体步调一致期现价差变化不大玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021417638579461952833487713320413425624718730928213225519531612811823916113129625719812929114115327731824917127220315420613101111121112131415161718110101022122111151127102311281222101111161210锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差8006008006004006004002000400200-2002000-4000-200-600-400-800-200-600-1000-400-1200-800-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差近月合约承压明显5月合约贴水扩大3-5价差缩小05下跌较多淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015015050100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15026313942-25015112124113121129214222317325410418426101109212934455768728310171025111011181126121212201228811819827225312320328413421429515523531616624710718726617181911011111212171901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-200-80-150-100-300-20091961327921926115125911916101106111118117124228110131214221126111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161031112012101225102110261110111511251130121512201122121311151129122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015080501006005040-50200-1000-50-150-20-100-40-200-150-60-250-80-20006-300-100-2503138315322329454124194265351051752453167614621628515851552252965612619626737107177247318781482182871787157227298581281982692999169239301071014102110281907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-2301淀粉基差现货本周上游企业复工进度加快与此同时下游消费不及预期市场新签订单数量较少上游工厂挺价意愿有所减弱未来市场信心或继续下降玉米淀粉价格有回落空间基差期货跌幅较大基差扩大淀粉01基差淀粉05基差淀粉09基差100010001000800800800600600600400400400200200200000-200-200-200-400-400-400-60021385794417661773348951328213320425612718730916129225413519531624811823928113812824917929114115127625719731220315327420613101111121112131415161718110101022112711151221121012221011102311161128潍坊-1901潍坊-2001潍坊-2101潍坊-2201潍坊-2301潍坊-1905潍坊-2005潍坊-2105潍坊-2205潍坊-2305潍坊-1909潍坊-2009潍坊-2109潍坊-2209潍坊-2309淀粉03基差淀粉07基差淀粉11基差150015001200100010001000800600500500400020000-500-200-400-500-1000-600-800-1000-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101潍坊-1903潍坊-2003潍坊-2103潍坊-2203潍坊-2303潍坊-1907潍坊-2007潍坊-2107潍坊-2207潍坊-2307潍坊-1911潍坊-2011潍坊-2111潍坊-2211潍坊-231107淀粉-玉米现米粉价差-绥化元吨1200淀粉-玉米价差波动不大近期有一定扩大但1000也仅为200元出头80060040020005671114863991292123255207158261071221152263114226177298129231141021121611181230201820192020202120222023米粉价差-公主岭元吨米粉价差-潍坊元吨1200120010001000800800600600400400200200005611486371994899115663711293113254226177298129231141152122265207158261071221152123115206177158121071141292263254227298269231221118121612301021111812161021123020182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202308淀粉-玉米期盘面淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈淀粉价格跌幅更大价差再度缩小明显淀粉-玉米01价差淀粉-玉米05价差淀粉-玉米09价差60070065060050060055040050050045030040040020030035030010020025001002007713335473619528481535698838577621419471973192911531532711612921022241042251671572761362581282491711412722042010111731732952862182022532051953171873091692812921341342561262481182311310111023121012221118113011161128101310251212122410101127102211151221190120012101220123011905200521052205230519092009210922092309淀粉-玉米03价差淀粉-玉米07价差淀粉-玉米11价差800700800700700600600600500500500400400400300300300200200200100100100001636899255749634536881142949118130211223318330716728821914926108121411423517529610622825116128316421620813918930115221328515527122510204151617181911011111211121121310121024112912111117122319032003210322032303190720072107220723071911201121112211231109玉米淀粉仓单玉米仓单变化不大淀粉仓单处于高位玉米仓单变化张玉米淀粉仓单变化张18000025000160000140000200001200001500010000080000100006000040000500020000001199485663714856637199111292263254225206177158121071141221152123117298269231152123117291071141221292263254225206177158128269231021111812161230123010211118121620172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023吉林云天营口百丰达孚锦州中粮贸易大连象屿仓库中粮贸易维维股份嘉吉投资浙江农发厦门象屿陕西粮农河北粮产京粮粮贸锦州港锦阳锦州良运港北良港中储辽宁总计化泰仓储库中孚库锦象库玉米仓单数量12003500700054840873865945295183200161271540213819300121660767本周增减00000-2500000000-259900000-5099中粮生化北安象屿富锦象屿仓库山东中谷山东福洋诸城兴贸松原嘉吉辽宁益海山东福宽玉峰实业龙凤玉米黑龙江昊天益海富裕京粮龙江总计龙江生化生化淀粉仓单数量48009506402500200001050134074821002500128010008本周增减00000-10000-500-1000250012803530010CFCT持仓净多单CFTC净多单小幅增长美玉米上周先跌后涨CFTC非商业净多头变化内外玉米价格对比60000085031008003000500000750290040000070028006502700300000600260020000055025005002400100000450230004002200-100000-200000-300000玉米大连玉米2019-07-022020-07-022021-07-022022-07-02CBOT011进口利润目前进口季节性波动春节前后进口量较少美玉米出口至中国吨1200000中国玉米月度进口对比吨玉米淀粉月度进口对比千克4000000300000010000003500000250000030000008000002000000250000060000020000001500000150000010000004000001000000500000500000200000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00901100111011201010102010301040105010601070108012018201920202021202220172018201920202021202218191920202121222223美玉米出口至中国吨玉米到岸完税价及利润变化250000003800400360020020000000340032000300015000000-20028002600-400100000002400-600220050000002000-800009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080101218191920202121222223美西完税价美墨完税价美西利润美墨利润美玉米作物生长报告美玉米种植进度4月开始美玉米出芽率4月下旬开始美玉米优良率5月底开始美玉米抽丝率6月底开始1001009010090909085808080807070706075506060704050503065404020601030300552020第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周101050周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周134685790021113151618202123101214171922第第第第第第第第第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值美玉米鼓粒率7月下旬开始美玉米干粒率8月初开始美玉米成熟率8月下旬开始美玉米收割进度9月中旬开始1001001001009090909080808080707070706060606050505050404040403030303020202020101010100000第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值013玉米售粮进度全国售粮进度东北地区售粮进度120120100100808060604040202000142538414953142538414953111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111711251211121912271117112512111219122716171718181919202021212222231617171818191920202121222223全国售粮进度为57较上期增加4较去年同期增加2东北售粮进度54环比增加5同比偏低3014港口企业库存北方四港库存万吨广东港内贸库存万吨广东港外贸库存万吨55016014050014012045012010040010035080803006060250402004015020201000011485663997111567111486399485663719912921231161771581210711522632542252072982692311412212921232561772981292311411512921222631112211522631142252071582610712232542252061771572981282692310711411181216102112301216123011181216123010211118102120172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨75050000160140650450001204000055010045035000803000060350402500025020200001500150001148566399711148637199561292123116177158121071152263254225207298269231141221151293256178261141222122263114225207157298129231071118121612302018-08-032019-08-032020-08-032021-08-032022-08-031021111810211216123020192020202120222023广东四港福建四港201820192020202120222023北方四港库存继续回落广东港内贸库存大幅回升广东港外贸库存季节性回落深加工企业库存上升尽管仍同比低于历年同期但有一定好转015玉米淀粉物理库存近期小幅回落主要企业淀粉库存上升近期上升较慢但仍处于偏高水平玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010296571899411364111422231942752391712741451061871472782293011812411233749516376881013112112171026123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量开始季节性回升回升较快主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升回升较快016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量季节性回升整体处于正常水平主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030115663994165894871112936719411512921242252072981282612211412731952372793012422631132561771592310711422241442751061871482291711811181216101312171021123010261121123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨4024223520301816251420121015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪全国饲料企业玉米库存天数44全国饲料企业玉米库存小幅回升整体维持稳定上周库存2971天4240本周生猪出栏均价小幅反弹全国均价达到1407元公斤环比上涨233383634上周配合饲料价格小幅回落整体处于高位震荡3230玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-09-162021-11-162022-02-162021-02-102021-07-102021-08-102021-12-102022-01-102022-02-102022-05-102022-06-102022-10-102022-11-102021-10-162021-12-162022-01-162022-03-162022-04-162022-05-162022-06-162022-07-162022-08-162022-09-162022-10-162022-11-162022-12-162023-01-162021-03-102021-04-102021-05-102021-06-102021-09-102021-10-102021-11-102022-03-102022-04-102022-07-102022-08-102022-09-102022-12-102023-01-10玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润2502000200150015010001005005000-500-50-1000-100-1500-150-2000-2002020-06-132020-08-132021-04-132021-10-132021-12-132022-02-132022-06-132022-08-132022-10-132020-02-132020-04-132020-10-132020-12-132021-02-132021-06-132021-08-132022-04-132022-12-13河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润小幅回落当前处于盈亏平衡线附近玉米制乙醇利润小幅亏损019