本周总结：前四天震荡上行，周五宏观社融数据对盘面影响较大，日盘宽幅震荡，夜盘单边下跌，成交量放大。
　　下周关注：终端工地复工补库情况，钢厂高炉提产情况，钢厂与焦化厂的博弈，澳煤进口利润，蒙煤通关量，下游补库焦煤焦炭的节奏
　　策略跟踪：无

研究报告全文：南华期货焦煤焦炭产业周报宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证--2023212南华研究院袁铭资格证号Z0012648刘斯亮资格证号F0309974701本周总结与下周关注目录焦煤宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证Contents0203焦炭宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证01重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议本周总结与下周关注本周总结前四天震荡上行周五宏观社融数据对盘面影响较大日盘宽幅震荡夜盘单边下跌成交量放大下周关注终端工地复工补库情况钢厂高炉提产情况钢厂与焦化厂的博弈澳煤进口利润蒙煤通关量下游补库焦煤焦炭的节奏策略跟踪无02周度策略单边基差月间价差焦煤观望观望观望焦炭观望观望观望焦炭-焦煤观望03重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤数据总览估值2月10日上周同期周涨跌供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦煤23051840181228精煤日均产量万吨60105858259383周焦煤23091741172615洗煤厂开工率72577041307127周焦煤基差1631402311甘其毛都口岸2023进口量万吨238003590-66300累计值焦煤05-09998613焦煤总进口量万吨64649573221278-1366月蒙3精煤17701840-70国有重点煤矿产量万吨16309101674030-258-502月沙河驿蒙52170212050库存本期上期环比同比数据频率主焦煤低硫23982407-9气煤196319630港口库存1167112545-697-6767周瘦煤21972203-6独立焦化企业库存97127100601-345-2837周肥煤23722385-13247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存8187384342-293-1741周13焦煤2222221210矿山企业库存2500024484211-832周双焦汽运价格介休洗煤厂精煤库存15299149992004464周185195-10丰南区双焦汽运价格孝义总库存223501229937-280-2325周2052023日照港运费价格查干哈达堆27025515监管区库存2260022881-123-周场甘其毛都口岸-707-627-799总库存铁水产量14701523-349-3186周澳煤进口利润04重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭数据总览估值2月10日上周同期周涨跌数据频率供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦炭230527372757-20日独立焦化企业日均产量万吨664766420081663周焦炭230926262641-15日焦炭基差1291245日独立焦化企业产能利用率72427237007859周焦炭05-09111117-6日钢厂样本焦化厂日均产量万吨47164701032429周日照港准一26802700-20日钢厂样本焦化厂产能利用率86678640031227周冶金焦一级272027200日理论焦炭周产量万吨79541794010181117周冶金焦二级25522575-23日冶金焦准一级湿熄259225920日需求本期上期环比同比数据频率冶金焦准一级干熄293529350日日均铁水产量万吨22866227040711098周现货理论焦化利润顶装焦-310-299-11日高炉开工率784277411301500周现货理论焦化利润捣固焦-253-237-16日高炉产能利用率849384320721092周盘面05焦化利润按131-162-105-57日铁水焦炭理论消耗量10580031794640711098周独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润-66-14-52周库存本期上期环比同比数据频率独立焦化企业库存万吨1252612739-167-2247周钢厂盈利率392316周247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存万吨6516664121163-1256周螺纹钢电炉利润-259-233-25日247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存可用天数12971281125-2120周螺纹钢高炉利润-110-39-71日港口库存万吨15310145105511795周热轧卷板毛利-166-17711日冷轧卷板毛利-146-118-28日全样本库存万吨9300291370179-1029周唐山钢坯利润2845-17日全样本库存日均铁水产量813805107-2130周05重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤周度综述现货观察现货本周现货下跌为主上游复产快于下游补库需求现货偏弱偏空本周总结供应煤矿与洗煤厂复产较快产量季节性上行偏快蒙煤通关车辆维持在900-1000车左右增量明显澳煤进口利润偏低发运暂未起量中性需求独立焦化与钢厂焦化的焦煤可用天数已经接近2022年最低位在铁水上行周期存在较强的补库预期偏多库存总库存下降上游累库下游去库库存铁水走低偏多利润独立焦化利润走低澳洲峰景硬焦煤提涨进口利润继续下降中性基差目前2305基差160基差拉大需要关注蒙煤现货价对基差的带动中性周五社融数据虽然比较亮眼但是市场前期预期过高后市宏观层面主要博弈两会的政策且两会期间煤矿安全检查估值上看基差基本修复到位乐观情绪转弱是主要矛盾点供应来看煤矿与洗煤厂进入节后复产洗煤厂开工率提升较快精煤产出同比增加上周蒙煤通关车辆日均在900车以上短期通关量在800-1000车波动甘其毛都国内方向铁路外运仍未恢复汽运压力加大运费小幅上涨10-15不等澳煤方面由于中国加入采购观点竞争且澳洲短期大雨影响运输澳煤价格上涨进口利润较差短期进口量不会增长太多需求来看独立焦化厂与钢厂焦化均在提产钢厂与焦化厂库存绝对位置与可用天数均偏低有一定补库需求综上虽然乐观情绪有所转弱但是由于下游存在补库需求支撑价格下跌空间不大震荡反弹为主策略观望煤矿安全检查蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭提降博弈下游补库不及预期终端工地需求风险06重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭周度综述现货观察现货日照港准一微跌港口交投氛围冷清市场成交表现低迷现贸易现汇出库中性本周总结供应钢厂与独立焦化均提产且日均产量高于去年同期中性需求本周铁水产量继续提升且高于去年同期钢厂进一步提产受到原料与利润的制约偏多库存全样本库存微增钢厂焦化库存增加可用天数提高独立焦化厂库存微降港口库存增加贸易商有一定集港投机行为中性利润钢厂焦化厂利润博弈持续目前独立焦化利润-69左右山西化产利润400左右钢厂钢厂盈利率有所提高中性基差2305基差129反映了一轮提降的预期估值中性中性估值来看基差与利润估值中性供应来看独立焦化厂春节后目前维持正常复产钢厂焦化产能维持高位日均焦炭产量同比走高需求来看钢厂铁水产量有所增加但是钢厂进一步提产受到原料与利润的制约库存来看贸易商存在投机心理集港现象出现钢厂焦化库存上升独立焦化库存微降总库存铁水略微上观点升短期焦炭价格支撑主要在于钢厂的补库预期短期震荡反弹为主而中期的利空主要在于成材终端需求可能被证伪导致钢厂补库强预期扭转中期走势偏空策略观望风险蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭第三轮提降成材需求预期证伪07重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议01周末要闻与下周关注目录焦煤宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证Contents0203焦炭宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证08重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤估值-价差2309基差元吨2305基差元吨25008002300005000024004500070022000023004000060021000022003500050020000021003000020004001900002500019002000030018000018001500020017000017001000010016000016005000150001500000002022111120231112022117202317基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2309基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2305焦煤期限结构焦煤05-09季节性29004002700300250020023001002100019001700-1001500-200020304050607080910111201917101711171217117217317417092023-02-102022-02-1020182019202020212022资料来源钢联万德彭博南华研究焦煤估值-价格与利润焦煤运费元吨澳煤进口利润元吨270350200030025015002501000230200500210150100019050-5001700-10002022-12-272022-12-282022-12-292022-12-302022-12-312023-01-012023-01-022023-01-032023-01-042023-01-052023-01-062023-01-072023-01-082023-01-092023-01-102023-01-112023-01-122023-01-132023-01-142023-01-152023-01-162023-01-172023-01-182023-01-192023-01-202023-01-212023-01-222023-01-232023-01-242023-01-252023-01-262023-01-272023-01-282023-01-292023-01-302023-01-312023-02-012023-02-022023-02-032023-02-042023-02-052023-02-062023-02-072023-02-082023-02-092023-02-10-1500双焦汽车运输价格介休丰南区日-2000双焦汽车运输价格介休日照港日112131415161718191101111121双焦汽车运输价格孝义日照港日双焦汽车运输价格孝义古冶区日20192020202120222023炼焦煤蒙古产运费价格查干哈达堆场甘其毛都口岸日主要煤种现货均价元吨情绪指数300060240055250023005045200022004015003521001000302000255002019000151018002022-12-232022-12-302023-01-062023-01-132023-01-202023-01-272023-02-032023-02-10焦煤11家期货公司市场情绪指数周焦煤38家煤矿企业市场情绪指数周焦煤16家投资公司市场情绪指数周焦煤31家钢铁企业市场情绪指数周中硫主焦煤价格指数中国日变频周最后一条0102023-02-102023-02-03DCE焦煤主力合约收盘价日变频周最后一条资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存上游库存中国矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山西矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山东矿山焦煤库存万吨400200250350180160300200140250120150200100150801006010040505020000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023日期矿山总库存山西山东安徽河北河南2023-02-102507215761322023-02-0324484691564138422023-01-272421701562511622023-01-20249867151606103622023-01-132522375162492322023-01-062616880166676822022-12-30268638316869632011资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存焦煤港口库存万吨焦煤库存结构万吨90018008001600700140060012005001000400800300600200400100200001121314151617181911011111212022-07-012022-08-012022-09-012022-10-012022-11-012022-12-012023-01-012023-02-0120192020202120222023钢厂库存港口库存煤矿库存洗煤厂库存230家独立焦化企业焦煤库存万吨247家钢厂焦煤库存万吨2100130019001200170011001500100013001100900900800700111313241515316307308299281028112712277001121314151617181911011111210122019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-产量洗煤厂精煤库存万吨洗煤厂原煤库存万吨5003004502504003502003001502502001001505010050001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023洗煤厂开工率洗煤厂精煤日均产量吨天90808575807075657060655560505545504045354030112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121013202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-进口炼焦煤总进口吨月澳洲进口量吨700120060010005008004006003004002002001000013122833143053163073183193010311130123120192020202120222019202020212022蒙古进口量吨俄罗斯美国加拿大总进口量吨4000000450000035000004000000350000030000003000000250000025000002000000200000015000001500000100000010000005000005000000131228331430531630731831930103111301231011213141516171819110111112101420192020202120222019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动库存消费比焦煤总库存万吨焦煤总库存日均铁水产量4500344000293500243000191425009200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201820192020202120222023247家钢厂库存平均可用天数天独立焦化企业库存平均可用天数天242422222020181816161414121210101121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210152019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究01周末要闻与下周关注目录焦煤宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证Contents0203焦炭宏观扰动加强关注终端需求验证016重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭估值基差与月差焦炭价格基差元吨2305基差季节性元吨320060016003100500140030004001200290028003001000270020080026001006002500240004002300-1002000-2005207209201120120320基差右轴山西准一级焦折仓单焦炭2305201820192020202120222023焦炭期限结构焦炭05-095003100400290030027002002500100230009181018111812181182183184182100-100020304050607080910111201-2000172023-02-102022-02-1020182019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值现货价格港口价日照港准一级元吨港口价天津港准一级元吨5000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000150010001500500100001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023产地价格准一级焦炭元吨4500400035003000250020002022-03-112022-05-112022-07-112022-09-112022-11-112023-01-11冶金焦准一级湿熄吕梁冶金焦准一级干熄邢台018冶金焦准一级湿熄唐山资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值利润与比值焦炭出口利润元吨盘面焦化利润元吨独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润元吨12008001200100060010004008008002006006000400-200400200-400200-60000-800-200-200-1000-400112131415161718191101111121-400112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023焦煤05焦炭05焦炭05螺纹05焦炭05铁矿051095508550908075450807407065063506055305052504504042519619719819919101911191219119219319419519619719819919101911191219119219319419520620720820920102011201220120220320420201820192020201820192020201820192020019202120222021202220212022资料来源钢联南华研究