动力煤
　　煤炭港口大幅累库，压力很大，内地供应开始回归，元宵后坑口价格有较强的回落预期。
　　天然气
　　欧美开启升温，外盘天然气价格大幅下跌。

研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报近端或维持去库但05终点不佳戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z0015428甲醇自身绝对价格相对节前有一定走弱跟随化工挤掉了一些年前过度交易需求的水份周度产业链价格总览外盘比较强顺挂窗口消失单体比较强煤炭比较弱产业链各环节利润扩张期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约26852773-882630551-5价差1328-15-243705合约26722745-732654185-9价差3603643209合约26362745-1092650-149-1价差-49-28-2120-69国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线22602280-201905355鲁南25802655-752240340北线2295229501920375河北25252540-152275250关中24102455-452100310山西237024325-6252100270河南25902660-702355235华南27002755-552590110鲁北24902615-1252210280太仓26952805-110261085国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国335NANA3215135CFR印度334334031222CFR东南亚3923895253645275FOB鹿特丹3413435-253215195CFR日韩377537165353245FOB美湾美分加仑1101057542510825175下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金88078010087010MEG41224340-2184006116丙烯美金9659006589570EO650063002006300200丁二烯美金102098040840180醋酸310029751254006-906PE830083000825050甲醛11201070501000120PP810077503507700400二甲醚40204120-100378024001PVCNANANANANAMTBE69506900506700250持仓成交甲醇持仓量单边计算甲醇成交量1605001401204001003008060200402010000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇纸货成交量3530252015105002202120222023区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格35004500400030003500300025002500200020001500100015002022-09-142022-10-142022-11-142022-12-142023-01-14太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000320202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16004-250-200成本总述能源端的价格重心持续性下移煤炭港口大幅累库压力很大内地工艺本周上周成本环比动力煤供应开始回归元宵后坑口价格有较山东煤制利润-3025-33129125285强的回落预期内蒙煤制利润-3605-609262052485西南天然气制利润120202500100欧美开启升温外盘天然气价格大幅天然气河北焦炉气制利润-1098-168426098586下跌甲醇各工艺利润汇总10005000-500-1000河北焦炉气利润内蒙古煤制山东煤制利润山西煤制利润西南天然气制利润05利润情况山东煤制成本内蒙古煤制利润5100100048009004600430070050041005003800360030003300310010028002600-500-10021002300-3001600-10001800-5002021-08-232021-09-232021-10-232021-11-232021-12-232022-01-232022-02-232022-03-232022-04-232022-05-232022-06-232022-07-232022-08-232022-09-232022-10-232022-11-232022-12-232023-01-232021-08-232021-09-232021-10-232021-11-232021-12-232022-01-232022-02-232022-03-232022-04-232022-05-232022-06-232022-07-232022-08-232022-09-232022-10-232022-11-232022-12-232023-01-23利润右轴北线市场价内蒙古煤制成本利润右轴山东中部市场价山东煤制成本焦炉气制利润西南天然气制利润48004300180043001600380013003800110033008003300600280030028002300100-20023001800-7001800-4002021-09-232021-10-232021-11-232021-12-232022-01-232022-02-232022-04-232022-05-232022-06-232022-07-232022-08-232022-09-232022-11-232022-12-232023-01-232022-03-232022-10-232021-08-23062021-09-232021-10-232021-11-232021-12-232022-01-232022-02-232022-04-232022-05-232022-06-232022-07-232022-08-232022-09-232022-11-232022-12-232023-01-232021-08-232022-03-232022-10-23利润右轴川渝市场价西南天然气制成本利润右轴河北市场价河北焦炉气制成本开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测75257024524652356023552255022215072020202120222023外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR40060050035040030030020025010002022-10-112022-10-182022-10-252022-11-012022-11-082022-11-152022-11-222022-11-292022-12-062022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-032023-01-102023-01-172023-01-242023-01-31鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020082019202020212022202320192020202120222023MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14兴兴停车预期在3-4月但是仍有较大12的不确定性尤其是在单体反弹后10富德2月下有检修计划盛虹预计05前8不会重启642020231120232120233120234120235120236109沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总MTO利润宁波富德综合利润浙江兴兴MTO利润1500200010001500500100050000-500-500-1000-1000-1500-1500-2000-2000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023大唐多伦MTP利润联泓MTO综合利润400050003000400020003000100002000-10001000-20000-3000-4000-1000010201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率556560下游整体变动不大整体跟随季50555045节性波动成品油支撑下MTBE454040表现偏强353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率9025802070156010504053000112020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-03-312021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-07-312022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312022-06-302022-08-312022-09-302022-05-31012201820192020202120222023甲醛月产量二甲醚河南二甲醚价格河南二甲醚成本65006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023河南二甲醚利润LPGDME与DME开工率相关性8001724600162240015202001401318-2001216-4001114-60010120910201911202011202111202211013201820192020202120222023LPGDMEDME开工率MTBE10000MTBE成本900085008000750070006500600055005000450040003500300025002017-08-172018-08-172019-08-172020-08-172021-08-172022-08-17市场价现货基准价MTBE全国日201820192020202120222023MTBE利润山东下游库存250012000020001100001500100010000050090000080000-50070000-1000-1500600000142018201920202021202220232020202120222023比价MAZC比价PP-3MA7060300050200040301000200201820192020202120222023-1000PEMA比价55-2000504540353020182019202020212022202325PPMA比价MAUR比价201820192020202120222023452018401635141230102508201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023015南华期货股份有限公司地址浙江省杭州市上城区富春路136号横店大厦演讲人戴一帆电话13575737718邮箱daiyifannawaacom股票简称南华期货股票代码603093南华期货微信公众号16ThankYou客服热线4008888910