临近春节市场陷入震荡
　　①下游亏损严重，或维持长期低库存水平。下游养殖及深加工市场持续亏损背景下，对上游的高价玉米接受程度差，因此当出现抛储稻谷信息的时候对市场产生一定的打击。
　　 ②淀粉盘面利润回升。当前淀粉企业开工率下降，整体盘面利润回升，但现货仍有部分亏损。
　　总结：上周玉米支撑强劲，市场保持偏强心态，短期支撑力度较强。
　　

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报202301205下游亏损承压运行南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存2971天周环比减少144天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为53较上期增加1较去年同期增加1空饲料养殖1312饲料企业波动不大但同比偏低多北方港口库存1992万吨同比减少59万吨当周北方港口下淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米2741万吨较前一周减少376万吨海量116万吨同比减少152万吨广东内贸库存294万吨库存中淀粉深加工企业玉米库存3782万吨环比减少791呈现季节性回多较上周增减少04万吨外贸库存1211万吨较上周增加461落且相比同期库存偏低万吨进口12月国内玉米进口867万吨环比增17同比减349空酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米3425万吨环比减少009万吨中近期现货保持坚挺期货跟随现货上扬基差本周出现较大玉米基差多淀粉期现5月基差收敛明显多收敛美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至1月26日当周美出口2223美玉米多其他因素未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口但整体量有限且周期偏长空年度玉米126106万吨其中单周为5983万吨临近春节市场陷入震荡下游亏损严重或维持长期低库存水平下游养殖及深加工市场持续亏损背景下对上游的高价玉米接受程度差因此当出现抛储稻谷信息的时候对市场观点产生一定的打击淀粉盘面利润回升当前淀粉企业开工率下降整体盘面利润回升但现货仍有部分亏损总结上周玉米支撑强劲市场保持偏强心态短期支撑力度较强策略暂时观望技术分析玉米回落后再度拉涨10日均线对期价有较强支撑淀粉波动较玉米更大回撤幅度也更大但仍受10日均线支撑且10日均线向上穿过60日均线美玉米风险海外市场波动美元指数波动影响价格重新站上60日均线走势重新转强玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C0127543011锦州港287001122C052846-8-028蛇口港3010-4015162玉米CC0928183011四平27600-9922玉米主力2837-22-078C2303潍坊2800-40-5962CS01307614046黑龙江2930-203747CS053039-79-253吉林3000010767淀粉CSCS093092-35-112河北3100020767淀粉主力2893-67-232CS2303山东3120022787CBOT玉米玉米主力6770000ZC2303期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-9211锦州港-蛇口港-14040玉米C05-0928-11玉米现货锦州港-四平110009-016450锦州港-潍坊704001-053793黑龙江-吉林-70-20淀粉CS05-09-53-44淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-170-2009-0116-31黑龙江-山东-190-20仓单数据仓单增减仓单数据仓单增减进口利润价格涨跌利润增减美西地区273906-10651290948651玉米65866-680淀粉14362-352美湾地区274826-8466281746466加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-1962港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-3532北方四港19920-3500企业库存96102000淀粉河北138广东内贸2940-440可售库存6016库存山东-1081广东外贸12110728物理库存10121黑龙江-240-2下游当周增减产量当周增减02酒精吉林-317-106饲料企业2971167-14433全国1919-948玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货回落整体走势偏30003500弱2950340029002850330028003200275027003100265030002600美玉米先涨后跌2550290025002800整体承压明显玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势玉米淀粉回落85031003300跌幅大于玉米8003000320029007503100280030007002700290065026002800250060024002700550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差价差走势有所回落近月走弱后近远月价差收窄玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942212934455768728310110911212411312112921422231732541041842621722531232032841342142951552353161662471071872681181961718191101111121827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货周末饲用稻谷即将投放消息打压市场氛围价格略显弱势深加工企业到货不同调价谨慎华北玉米稳中偏弱节后华北购销恢复速度较快贸易商出货积极性较高下游深加工企业门前到货量相对宽松价格偏弱销区玉米市场先稳后弱正月初十前购销不活跃正月初十后市场购销逐步恢复港口外贸玉米库存较高叠加期货偏弱使得内贸玉米下跌基差近期现货保持坚挺期货跟随现货上扬基差本周出现较大收敛玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差8006008006004006004002000400200-2002000-4000-200-600-400-800-200-600-1000-400-1200-800-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差近月合约承压明显5月合约由升水9月转为贴水淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015050150100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15015263139-25042211012910934112451245711312112968214222723173258341041842621710172251025312111032011183281126413121242112204291228515523531616624710718726811819617181911011111218271901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-200-80-150-100-300-20091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015080501006050040-50200-1000-50-150-20-100-40-200-150-60-250-80-200-300-100-250063138315322329454124194265351051752453167614621628515851552252965612619626737107177247318781482182871787157227298581281982692999169239301071014102110281907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-2301淀粉基差现货节后第一周下游逐步复工而部分上游企业开工时间较晚玉米淀粉阶段性供需基本面向好上游积极挺价主导玉米淀粉行情走势基差近月基差回归期现价格趋于一致淀粉01基差淀粉05基差淀粉09基差100010001000800800800600600600400400400200200200000-200-200-200-400-400-400-60021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222潍坊-1901潍坊-2001潍坊-2101潍坊-2201潍坊-2301潍坊-1905潍坊-2005潍坊-2105潍坊-2205潍坊-2305潍坊-1909潍坊-2009潍坊-2109潍坊-2209潍坊-2309淀粉03基差淀粉07基差淀粉11基差150015001200100010001000800600500500400020000-500-200-400-1000-500-600-800-1000-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101潍坊-1903潍坊-2003潍坊-2103潍坊-2203潍坊-2303潍坊-1907潍坊-2007潍坊-2107潍坊-2207潍坊-2307潍坊-1911潍坊-2011潍坊-2111潍坊-2211潍坊-231107淀粉-玉米现米粉价差-绥化元吨1200淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈近期有一定扩大但1000也仅为200元出头80060040020001148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230201820192020202120222023米粉价差-公主岭元吨米粉价差-潍坊元吨1200120010001000800800600600400400200200004899115663715611486371991152123115206177158121071141292263254227298269231221293113254226177298129231141152122265207158261071221118121610211230111812161230102120182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202308淀粉-玉米期盘面淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈淀粉价格跌幅更大价差缩小明显淀粉-玉米01价差淀粉-玉米05价差淀粉-玉米09价差60070065060050060055040050050045030040040020030035030010020025001002006177159535541369287333884821384157769410161362511671973181282411791712992921022211431732941042251611552812762122071531572732782042021322532041342551953161262471873081182391692811312910131025111811301212122410111023111611281210122210101022111511271221190120012101220123011905200521052205230519092009210922092309淀粉-玉米03价差淀粉-玉米07价差淀粉-玉米11价差800700800700700600600600500500500400400400300300300200200200100100100001636899255749634536881142949118130211223318330716728821914926108121411423517529610622825116128316421620813918930115221328515527122510204151617181911011111211121121310121024112912111117122319032003210322032303190720072107220723071911201121112211231109玉米淀粉仓单玉米仓单变化不大淀粉仓单处于高位玉米仓单变化张玉米淀粉仓单变化张18000025000160000140000200001200001500010000080000100006000040000500020000001148566371991148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023吉林云天营口百丰达孚锦州中粮贸易大连象屿仓库中粮贸易维维股份嘉吉投资浙江农发厦门象屿陕西粮农河北粮产京粮粮贸锦州港锦阳锦州良运港北良港中储辽宁总计化泰仓储库中孚库锦象库玉米仓单数量12003500700054842500873865945295183200187261540213819300121665866本周增减000000000-68000000000-680中粮生化北安象屿富锦象屿仓库山东中谷山东福洋诸城兴贸松原嘉吉辽宁益海山东福宽玉峰实业龙凤玉米黑龙江昊天益海富裕京粮龙江总计龙江生化生化淀粉仓单数量48009506402500300001100134084821002500128010258本周增减00000-500000-3020250012803428010CFCT持仓净多单CFTC净多单小幅增长美玉米上周先涨后跌CFTC非商业净多头变化内外玉米价格对比60000085031008003000500000750290040000070028006502700300000600260020000055025005002400100000450230004002200-100000-200000-300000CBOT玉米大连玉米2019-07-022020-07-022021-07-022022-07-02011进口利润目前进口持续扩大美玉米出口至中国数量近期明显上量美玉米出口至中国吨1200000中国玉米月度进口对比吨玉米淀粉月度进口对比千克4000000300000010000003500000250000030000008000002000000250000060000020000001500000150000010000004000001000000500000500000200000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00901100111011201010102010301040105010601070108012018201920202021202220172018201920202021202218191920202121222223美玉米出口至中国吨玉米到岸完税价及利润变化250000003800400360020020000000340032000300015000000-20028002600-400100000002400-600220050000002000-800009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080101218191920202121222223美西完税价美墨完税价美西利润美墨利润美玉米作物生长报告美玉米种植进度4月开始美玉米出芽率4月下旬开始美玉米优良率5月底开始美玉米抽丝率6月底开始1001009010090909085808080807070706075506060704050503065404020601030300552020第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周101050周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周123456780091011121314151617181920212223第第第第第第第第第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值美玉米鼓粒率7月下旬开始美玉米干粒率8月初开始美玉米成熟率8月下旬开始美玉米收割进度9月中旬开始1001001001009090909080808080707070706060606050505050404040403030303020202020101010100000第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值013玉米售粮进度全国售粮进度东北地区售粮进度120120100100808060604040202000142538414953142538414953111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111711251211121912271117112512111219122716171718181919202021212222231617171818191920202121222223全国售粮进度为53较上期增加1较去年同期增加1东北售粮进度49环比增加1同比偏低4近期进度偏慢014港口企业库存北方四港库存万吨广东港内贸库存万吨广东港外贸库存万吨55014014050012012045010010040035080803006060250404020015020201000011111148484856565663636371717199999911511511512912912921221221222622622631131131132532532542242242252052052061761761771571571572972972981281281282682682692392392310710710711411411412212212210211021102111181118111812161216121612301230123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨7505000016014065045000120400005501004503500080300006035040250002502020000150015000114856637199114856637199115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122102111181216123010211118121612302018-07-272019-07-272020-07-272021-07-272022-07-2720192020202120222023广东四港福建四港201820192020202120222023北方四港库存继续回落广东港内贸库存大幅回升广东港外贸库存季节性回落深加工企业库存小幅小幅回落尽管仍同比低于历年同期但有一定好转015玉米淀粉物理库存回升速度较快主要企业淀粉库存上升与去年同期水平接近压力依旧较大玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812411233749516376881013102611211217123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量开始季节性回升但低于同期水平主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升同样处于历史低点016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量季节性回升酒精企业消费略低于2020年主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030111129364148566563717189949911412711512922221222631931132541442742251052352061861771471572772982281282691793092310711811412412210131026102111211118121712161230123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨4024223520301816251420121015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪全国饲料企业玉米库存天数44全国饲料企业玉米库存小幅回升整体维持稳定上周库存2971天4240本周生猪出栏均价继续下跌玉米下跌幅度小于生猪全国均价达到1375元公斤环3836比下跌9063432上周配合饲料价格与上周持平整体波动不大30玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-02-032021-03-032021-05-032021-06-032021-09-032021-12-032022-01-032022-07-032022-08-032022-10-032022-11-032021-04-032021-07-032021-08-032021-10-032021-11-032022-02-032022-03-032022-04-032022-05-032022-06-032022-09-032022-12-032023-01-032021-09-092021-11-092022-02-092021-10-092021-12-092022-01-092022-03-092022-04-092022-05-092022-06-092022-07-092022-08-092022-09-092022-10-092022-11-092022-12-092023-01-09玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润25025002002000150150010010005050000-50-500-100-1000-150-1500-2000-2002020-02-062020-04-062020-06-062020-08-062020-10-062020-12-062021-02-062021-04-062021-06-062021-08-062021-10-062021-12-062022-02-062022-04-062022-06-062022-08-062022-10-062022-12-06河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润小幅回升当前处于盈亏平衡线附近玉米制乙醇再度亏损并且扩大019