>> 五矿期货-燃料油周报:新春假期阶段外盘燃料油情况-230129
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2023/1/30 |
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五矿期货 |
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作者: |
李晶 |
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◆LU低硫燃料油: 1月26日新加坡低硫燃料油裂解价差收报12.59美元/桶,当周回升2.89美元/桶,截至目前,2023年1月低硫燃料油裂解价差均值为7.15美元/桶,2022年12月、11月、10月的数据分别为6.40美元/桶、7.92美元/桶和9.11美元/桶。中国新春假期阶段,亚洲区内低硫燃料油展现出强趋势。1月26日,新加坡低硫燃料油纸货连-/连二月差收报25.5美元/吨,back结构继续加深。裂解价差与月差的变化也展现出低硫燃料油近期现货趋紧的基本面情况: 1.从路透的船讯信息推断,2月份,尤其是2月,上旬的西方套利船只来港量不足; 2.受制于汽油需求的大幅攀升,亚洲区内各炼厂提高了RFCC装置的负荷,极力生产汽油,这一战略性变化影响了短期区域内低硫燃料油的供给。但是,值得注意的是,科威特AL -Zour炼厂即将开启其第二套CDU装置,这意味着亚洲区内低硫燃料油供应端紧张仅是短期现象,- -旦装置开始正常运转,低硫燃料油的货源将走向宽松。 ◆FU燃料油: 1月26日新加坡高硫燃料油裂解价差收报一20.91美元/桶,当周回落1.13美元/桶,截至目前,2023年1月高硫燃料油裂解价差均值为-21.54美元/桶,2022年12月、11月、10月的数据分别为-20.75美元/桶、-24.48美元/桶和-33.81美元/桶。在新年期间,新加坡高硫燃料油出现转结构,目前纸货连一/连=二月差收报3美元/吨,实现从Contango向Back的转变。但现实而言,富有弹性且存在巨量供应预期的俄罗斯高硫燃料油资源成为悬在高硫燃料油头顶的达摩克利斯之剑,结构再次转向的风险大。技术上看,原油经历前期反弹后,连续震荡进入关键位置,高硫燃料油期货表现仍将以平台震荡为主。 ◆船用油市场:在我国极力将舟山打造成为世界船供油中心的背景之下,2022年舟山保税船用燃料油销量大幅攀升9.1%,达到602.5万吨,中石化燃料油、中国船燃和中石油燃料油三家主流供应商共计销售423万吨,占比达70.2%,同比下降1.1%。2022.年末,舟山供油区内共有16家有资质的保税油供应商,步入2023年,我国保税燃料油市场蛋糕会越做越大,但于此同时竞争激烈程度也会不断加深,低硫燃料油期货投资者要紧紧把握现货端的变化情况,谨防激烈的市场竞争引起期货价格的大幅波动。 ◆库存: 1月26日新加坡周度燃料油库存下降3%,报1959万桶,创12周来的新低。
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