投资逻辑
　　一、本周总览: 2023年第一周，发烧指数达峰较晚的城市交通出行恢复明显，深圳交通指数环比增长6.7%，上海环比增长5.8%。上海三甲医院top5指数周度环比上升14.5%，北京三甲医院top4指数强度周度环比上升9.5%，关注医疗医药板块后续恢复情况。
　　二、线上消费及快递:电商平台及生鲜电商平台周均用户活跃环比小幅改善，主要由消费者年货采买行为驱动。截至2023年第二周，代表快递企业周度订单强度环比持续改善，环比提升7%，约为去年同期的115%。北京、上海、广东、浙江的快递订单指数为去年同期的148%、147%、85%、133%。京东及京东到家周均DAU同比高景气，京东App周均DAU同比38%，其中京东到家入口活跃度保持100%以上增长，本周增速达170%。京东年货节订单销售同比增长近七成，全国异地订单同比增长超170%。代表互联网医疗平台周度销售额在12月第四周同比142%，周度销售额创新高。
　　三、线上生活娱乐:线下活动回暖，020相关APP用户活跃持续改善。外卖:需求、运力、供给活跃强度整体向上。1月3日～1月9日，美团APP周均DAU环比增长4%，饿了么APP周均DAU环比增长9%;美团众包APP周均DAU环比增长7%;蜂乌众包APP周均DAU环比增长9%;1月3日~1月9日，美团外卖商家版APP周均DAU环比增长2%;饿了么商家版APP周均DAU环比增4%。出行:滴滴、高德环比恢复趋势明确。1月3日~1月9日，滴滴App及高德地图App周均DAU环比保持回暖趋势，滴滴周均DAU达到1475万，环比增长6%。高德地图周均DAU达到1.05亿，环比增长4%。
　　四、出行:眷运开启，预计客流总量恢复至9年七成。根据交通部初步预测，23年春运期间客流总量约为20.95亿人次/+99.5%，恢复到19年同期的70.3%;2023.1.11春运第5天全国共发送旅客3788.8万人次、同比+41.4%、环比+1.1%，恢复至19年同期51.1%，其中铁路/公路/水路/民航分别恢复至19年同期67.3%/48.1%/45.4%/65.3%。本地出行方面，2023.1.11，18个样本城市地铁客流恢复度均表现为上升，深圳、郑州恢复度已超19年水平;城市交通拥堵指数看，33个样本城市中14个已超2019年同期水平。
　　五、餐饮:全国持续恢复。北方早过峰城市或进入边际恢复速度放缓阶段，南方城市加快上修。截至2023.1.8代表餐饮连锁全国歇业率降至2.4%，代表连锁餐饮全国七日移动平均营业额较21年同期恢复度约64%、环比上周的47%上升17pct,较22年恢复度78%、环比上周的60%上升18pct;早过峰城市，如北京同比恢复度75%、环比上周+6pct,石家庄、保定同比恢复度在80%附近波动;晚过峰城市，如厦门、福州营业额恢复度59%/67%、环比上周+23/18pct。
　　六、酒旅:0TA活跃度回升，热门目的地航班执飞量恢复度已较高。2023.01.03~2023.01.09携程APP周均DAU同比-3.1%，环比上一周的-3.2%略有回升，连续两周降幅收窄。热门旅游目的地三亚、云南、长春、厦门客运航班截至2023/01/11回升至19年同期的108%/80%/119%/80%。主题乐园如宋城将于1.13起恢复三亚千古情景区。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复持续时间或存在不确定性;线下客流恢复受阻、门店/渠道拓展不及预期;宏观经济增长放缓的幅度和时间超预期的风险;数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年1月13日买入维持评级消费行业研究行业专题研究报告证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师廖馨瑶执业S1130522060005分析师许孟婕执业S1130522080003联系人叶思嘉liaoxinyaogjzqcomcnxumengjiegjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn联系人俞敏浩yuminhaogjzqcomcn线下出行回暖春节临近拉动线上消费-0123456789ABCD23EFGHIJKLMNEFGHOJPLQMNRSTUVWXO23YEFMZJOLRSTUVWX23YYEFMZJOLaTbTcdefghiQjkMlmnopqrstnuvqrstwxyzEFlm-Q-jopYYEFgEFZKL-8OLQMN8op23-8PLKLPOLLQnwFXXwFPLzYLMGHG4KLQ-FGHFGHKLQTbstYFLYQRkMuzkzxyzgQzYMQwEFGHLwEFGHLwEFGHKLwEFGHLrwEFGHLrwEFGLQEFAQXXnXXwEFw4KOEFGHILQw4JOEFGHLQ-Q-JOJOL-8KJLJJO0KPPJPFJLEFJL-OJL-IKJLPJLOJLIOJLQJJP9YwMZCD-Y-s902319-sQ234g5659789Y9oMAQJJP34BCDEFJLBC34GswH6-YILEFM8KLMZKXIV6-YKPLEFM8ILMZPXIV5659JFYKOLEFMIXIVKLMFYPLNO7659JPQR-HYOLIKLEFMPXIVQSTUzYZVQW8XYZY6QJJJJwFJLEFM8JLZBgaFbcQVQdW8RefHPQXZ-8PLPLLPLQghJi9jkJlRemnhoQphAgq7rsMtkuvQwxyzsnGH8Yq83hiQklmRSTU23aTbTcdehiJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOjkMlmnop-ZqrzopAJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJORkMuzkEFuJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJKkMz1lmklmAJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ2-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-34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJP-34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOMN34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOOCD34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOO34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOOR-34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOOPQ34PJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJOOwnGJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJIOOReXYMZLJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJIOIfXYZYMZLJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJIOKHXYZYMZLJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJIOPPQXYZYMZLJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJIOi9JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJK-90123gFYEFKLLsQ6901234589ABCD23EFGHIJKLMNEFGHOJPLQ923k3423QMN23EFMZJLGHJOLEFFJLQKL934236EFGHJKLQ012323YYEF233423YYEF-01234-5678019-01234-5678019uphRSTUk-MNRSTUVWXO23YFKJLYEFMZJOLRSTUVWX23YFPJPLYEFMZJOLQRSTU3MN-01234-5678019opY-PopYYEFEFZKL-8OLQMN8op23EFZLILPLIL-8PLKLPOLLQOopY23-01234-5678019OopY23-01234-5678019ABCBDEFGH2kMlm-qrstnuvqrstwxyzEFlm-QnwFkstXXwFPLzYLMGHG4KLQ3I-F-GH8FGHKLQVq-P3KMkGHQuvqrstwFLEFILwFPOLEFLQTbstYjFIKLRFOILFLYQIwKw-01234-5678019-01234-5678019IPww-01234-5678019-01234-5678019ww-01234-5678019-01234-5678019TbstY23-01234-5678019zYMQwEFGHLwEFGHLQwEFGHKLwEFGHLQrrwEFGHLrwEFGLQKww-01234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