钢材：实货交易本周渐渐收尾，供需季节性回落，矛盾有限。周四钢联数据显示产量下降速度较快，一定程度上缓解市场对过年期间钢材垒库速度的担忧。目前市场交易核心仍是节后微观修复以及宏观经济刺激政策。冬储交易基本结束，产业做多力量减弱，且从数据上看贸易商仓位已经同比较高。但与此同时，宏观多头的交易逻辑仍然无法证伪。预计市场价格仍将在宏微观逻辑摩擦中宽幅震荡
　　铁矿：钢材冬储有序推进，铁矿冬储大部分完成。焦炭第一轮提降落地，后续仍有下降空间，利多长流程钢厂利润。铁矿实货采购力度后续将季节性下降。供应端乏善可陈，各大矿山正常发货。铁矿库存后续或将小幅攀升，垒库速度符合季节性。总体供需情况持稳，矛盾有限。预计市场价格仍将在宏微观逻辑摩擦中宽幅震荡，且发改委喊话或触发多头获利了结
　　交易策略：
　　单边：建议观望，激进者可轻仓短空05铁矿逻辑：宏观或已利多出尽；发改委喊话或触发多头获利了结
　　风险点：1，宏观政策、数据超预期
　　套利：建议观望为主逻辑：价差位置中性，建议回避为主
　　风险点：1，近端供需超预期变化2，宏观政策、数据超预期

研究报告全文：期货研究报告商品研究招商期货钢材铁矿周报冬储告一段落宏微观拉扯中宽幅震荡或将继续2023年1月3日-2023年1月7日研究员-赵嘉瑜联系电话18818212580联系人-游洋CFA联系电话13426249707zhaojiayucmschinacomcn执业资格号Z0016776youyangcmschinacomcn2023年1月8日01价格回顾02基本面数据回顾目录contents03主要事件回顾及下周概览04结论与策略推荐01价格回顾华东华北螺纹现货本周各涨10元吨期货贴水本周分别扩大8元吨维持历史同期最低杭州螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华东右轴螺纹期货贴水华东65009001000201820192020202120222023600070080055005005000600300450040040001002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-20010203040506070809101112Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-21Nov-20Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22天津螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华北右轴螺纹期货贴水华北14007000900201820192020202120222023650012006000700100055005008005000300600450010040040002003500-1003000-3000-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-21Nov-20Nov-22Mar-21Mar-22Mar-20010203040506070809101112May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货热卷华东华北现货本周分别涨1020元吨期货贴水华东下降13元吨华北持平维持历史同期最低热卷期货贴水华东上海热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华东右轴75008002018201920202021202220237000900650070060060005005500400500030020045001004000-100035003000-300-200010203040506070809101112Jul-22Jul-20Jul-21Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-21May-22May-20热卷期货贴水华北1000天津热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华北右轴20182019202020212022202370009008006500600070060055005004005000300450010040002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-21May-22May-20010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货PB超特现货本周分别下跌6上涨2元吨期货贴水分别上涨110元吨上周适合交割品种现货涨幅较大目前暂无较适合交割品种青岛PB粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水PB粉右轴PBRmbt铁矿期货贴水粉19006006002020202120222023170050050015004001300400300110030020090020070010010050000Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-22Nov-20Nov-21Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-22May-21May-20010203040506070809101112青岛超特粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水超特粉右轴Rmbt铁矿期货贴水超特粉3501550350202020212022202313503003002501150250200950200150750150100100550505035000Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-21Jan-20Jan-22Jan-23Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-21Mar-22Mar-20010203040506070809101112May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货螺纹热卷510价差分别走扩3124元吨原料环比基本持平元吨螺纹五月十月价差元吨热卷五月十月价差600500160517051805190516051705180519055002005210522052305400200521052205230540030030020020010010000-100-100-200-2001011120102030410111201020304元吨铁矿五月九月价差焦炭五月九月价差元吨16051705180519052001605170518051905400200521052205230520052105220523051503001002001005000-100-50-2001011120102030410111201020304数据来源WIND招商期货海外黑色各品种价格涨幅略小于国内价格进口亏损出口利润缩窄铁矿除外美元吨热卷出口利润人民币吨美元吨1500钢坯进口利润1150东南亚-中国价差右轴中国出口离岸价东南亚到岸价10080印度钢坯进口利润独联体钢坯进口利润1050100060950405008502075000650-20-40550-500-60450-80350-100-1000Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22May-20May-21May-22Apr-18Apr-22Oct-18Apr-19Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Oct-22Jan-18Jan-22Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-23人民币吨人民币吨日照港铁矿进口利润废钢进口利润美元吨4500进口利润右轴张家港重废600PB粉卡粉20日本重废到岸价人民币价43004001541002001039000537003500-20003300-5-4003100-10-6002900-152700-800-202500-1000Jul-21Jul-22Oct-22Oct-21Apr-21Apr-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Jan-23Feb-21Mar-21Feb-22Mar-22Jul-21Jul-22Aug-21Sep-21Nov-21Dec-21Aug-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec-22May-21May-22Oct-21Oct-22Apr-21Apr-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Jan-23Feb-21Mar-21Feb-22Mar-22Aug-21Sep-21Nov-21Dec-21Aug-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec-22May-21May-22数据来源MysteelWIND招商期货02基本面数据回顾三十城新房销售环比下降40同比下降7m2万统计局三十城新房销售5日平均1009020192020202120222023x001x80706050403020100010203040506070809101112万m2统计局三十城新房销售三线城市5日平均032019202020212022202302502015010050010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货百城土地销售同比上升27环比升10百万平方米百城土地销售3周平均100201920202021202220239080706050403020100010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货建材日度成交环比下降11建材成交五日平均全国建材成交五日平均华东大区万吨万吨332018201920202021202220231620182019202020212022202314281223108186413280010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112建材成交五日平均华北大区建材成交五日平均华南大区万吨万吨6201820192020202120222023102018201920202021202220239584736254130010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货杭州出库周度环比基本持平成交出库比投机度维持高位且为近三年最高水平杭州螺纹出库5日平均中天口径万吨620192020202120222023543210010203040506070809101112华东大区成交杭州螺纹出库比值30日平均杭州螺纹价格中天HRB400E20mm右轴人民币吨65650066000555500545500044500354000335002523000Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-20Nov-22Sep-19Nov-19Sep-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源Mysteel招商期货调坯轧螺纹利润华东环比下降40元吨同比低约200元吨螺纹调坯轧材利润华东人民币吨800201920202021202220237006005004003002001000-100-200010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货焊管利润华北维持历年同期中等水平焊管利润华北人民币吨2019202020212022202310008006004002000-200-400010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货乘联会乘用车三周均值销售环比上升4611月底经销商库存环比上月继续小幅上升接近疫情后新高乘用车销售三周平均万辆2520182019202020212022202320151050010203040506070809101112汽车经销商库存系数240220200180160140120100Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-18Nov-20Nov-18Sep-19Nov-19Sep-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22Nov-22May-18May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货钢材表观消费季节性下降万吨万吨螺纹表需长材表需螺纹线材5507002019202020212022202320192020202120222023500650450600400550350500300450250400200150350100300502500200010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112万吨万吨热卷表需板材表需热卷冷卷中厚板3706002019202020212022202320192020202120222023580350560540330520310500480290460440270420250400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货表观消费情况五大材汇总环比下降51万吨至8234万吨五大材总表需万吨1600201920202021202220231400120010008006004002000010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货螺纹长材库存加速垒库垒库速度接近历年同期高点螺纹总库存长材总库存万吨万吨24002019202020212022202334002019202020212022202322002900200018002400160014001900120014001000800900600400400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112螺纹总库存环比长材总库存环比20201920202021202220232020192020202120222023151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-15010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货螺纹贸易商库存占比投机度维持高位且为历年同期最高贸易商螺纹库存占总螺纹库存比例201820192020202120222023807570656055010203040506070809101112贸易商螺纹库存占比和螺纹现货价人民币吨6000上海螺纹现货价贸易商库存占总库存比例805500755000704500654000603500300055Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-18Mar-19Mar-21Mar-22May-19May-22May-18May-20May-21数据来源Mysteel招商期货