研究报告全文：银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告尿素日报交易策略核心观点供应略有收紧需求持续有支撑交割区尿素市场价格坚挺运行一方面受冬季天然气调峰影响西南西北多家气头企业开始停车检修涉及产能超过300万吨而晋城地区部分固定床装置停车检修整体供应收紧尿素日均产量加剧那个纸143万吨另一方面交割区企业库存周环比大幅下滑需求持续改善同时出口企业积极报单复合肥企业积极备货淡储企业入市采购01合约临近交割月持仓量依旧过大接货企业较多尿素企业新收单成交良好市场整体情绪依旧高涨今日期货震荡走强但仍贴水60-80元吨预计短期内期现货价格尿延续偏强运行为主供应方面晋城无烟块煤价格坚挺为主6800K小块出厂价2010-2060元吨榆林沫煤价格止涨下跌5800大卡含税出厂价1190-1240元吨烟块煤6200大卡含税出厂价1320-1370元吨尿素现货价格坚挺运行固定床工艺生产利润215元吨水煤浆工艺生产利润扩大至520元吨气流床工艺利润扩大至812元吨附近山西地区固定床装置基本全部恢复生产但西南地区气头装置开始季节性检修整体供应有所减量西北地区内蒙新疆疫情管控放开仓储物流逐渐宽松疆内铁路外运畅通企业高库存局面将得到缓解出口方面市场传言法检放松至15天市场消息称印度月底招标150万吨大幅提着市场情绪关注动态需求方面目前复合肥需求再次释放东北地区冬储支撑淡储备肥继续备货整体需求相对旺盛库存方面随着疫情管控放松物流缓解企业销售顺利本周企业库存大幅减少14万吨左右预计随着下游需求继续释放库存延续去库为主以上观点仅供参考不做入市依据行情回顾今日期货盘面震荡走强最终报收267915056现货市场今日尿素现货价格坚挺运行为主河南中小颗粒报2740-2750元吨山东中小颗粒报2740-2800元吨河北中小颗粒报2750-2760元吨山西中小颗粒报2690-2700元吨安徽中小颗粒报2810-2830元吨新疆中小颗粒报2350-2400元吨重要资讯2022年第50周20221208-1214中国尿素分原料产能利用率煤制尿素7022环比涨351气制尿素4985环比跌1393周期内新增2家煤制企业停车5家气制企业停车16银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告相关数据图表心连价格期货山东河南河北安徽江苏湖北联盟正元昊源兰花晋开心2020-12-1417751840185017801880186018301820182018401880NA18002021-12-1524412530248024902520254024802460250024402500237024402022-11-1124732600257026202600262026202520251026202580250025002022-11-1424232590261026202630262026302550256026202625252025502022-11-1825212600260026402620262026002550256026302645252025502022-11-2125242690268027102710270026502630260026602690257026202022-11-2426332730272027702750275027402690268027402750268026602022-11-27NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-11-3025482730275027802770275027302760276027802790275027402022-12-03NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-0625922720274027502780274027102690269027002770265027002022-12-10NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-11NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-1226872750274027602790276027802670270027102790263026802022-12-1326742780278027802810280028202710273027402810265027202022-12-1426412790281028102830280028202730274027602830269027502022-12-152679NANANANANANA274027502760283027002750固定航天水煤山东河南河北安徽盘面无烟无烟三聚氰价差利润床利炉利浆利电煤利润基差基差基差基差利润块煤沫煤胺润润润2020-12-14454565105NA358570250388930499NANA2021-12-151959-15937584808401725186092884165362022-11-11473714710794152429201955187013357660-4002022-11-14127137197202119214492156940187013257700-4502022-11-182939109124124236533260920187012807700-4502022-11-2110676136166176285598264915187012507800-5902022-11-245747107117306401740393845187012007900-6702022-11-27NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-11-30212212232242378578876311835187011307900-8802022-12-03NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-069898108178226452743330855194012057600-9702022-12-10NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-11NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-12-171323103182446734362855197512307500-10102022-12-13365666136194480779333855198712107500-11302022-12-148999119189219490796286855201012007500-11902022-12-15617181151215520812329840203712007500-122026银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告河南心连心出厂价山东联盟出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120192020202120222019202020212022河北正元出厂价安徽昊源出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120192020202120222019202020212022心连心基差山东联盟基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0130012-01300202020212022202020212022河北正元基差安徽昊源基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0130030020202021202220202021202236银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-09尿素周度数据尿素开工率卓创尿素开工率隆众单位单位800080007250725065006500575057505000500001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制开工率隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位单位80008000725060006500400057502000500000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素产量隆众尿素日均产量隆众单位万吨单位万吨120001700110001550100001400900012508000110001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制产量隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位万吨单位90008000825060007500400067502000600000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120202021202220202021202246银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-09尿素周度数据尿素企业库存隆众尿素港口库存隆众单位万吨单位万吨10500750080005750550040003000225050050001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素各省供应量卓创尿素各省需求量卓创单位万吨单位万吨220001600019000140001600012000130001000010000800001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-012021202220212022复合肥开工率隆众复合肥厂库卓创单位单位万吨0609000050750004060000304500020300001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-01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