研究报告全文：TablePage跟踪分析银行证券研究报告银行行业TableTitleTableGrade行业评级买入前次评级买入回调即是机会报告日期2022-12-26TablePicQuote银行投资观察20221225相对市场表现TableSummary8核心观点1122102220422062208221022本期投资观察上周银行业整体继续调整-250继续跑赢万得全-6A剔除金融石化197个百分点重点关注品种招行回调幅度194-14排名第5大行整体涨幅排名居前自我们前一周投资观察中提出-21一月可能进入震荡期后市场和板块提前开始了调整这种调整来自于-29几个方面从交易层面来看板块前期累积了一定幅度的涨幅后有回调银行沪深300的需求其次中央经济工作会议的政策预期落地阶段性进入政策空分析师TableAuthor倪军窗期另外也由于各地疫情因素影响第三由于年底之前银行理财到SAC执证号S0260518020004期较为集中信用市场压力加剧使得金融市场流动性在年底之前依然021-38003646是压力期nijungfcomcn本期投资观察由于保经济增长是明年政府的核心工作内容因此本次分析师屈俊行情我们预计将是以年为单位展开的较大级别行情而短期来看未来SAC执证号S0260515030005一个季度仍需关注疫情因素影响会使得年度行情从单边阶段转为振SFCCENoBLZ443荡上行阶段振荡上行期的核心策略是回调即是机会上涨需调结0755-88286915构即回调加复苏交易品种上涨时调衰退交易品种过去qujungfcomcn两周行业小幅回调以及年底之前的金融市场流动性压力这也恰好给分析师王先爽了投资者增加配置的机会实际上大多数时候我们只需要做好银行投SAC执证号S0260520040002资策略的中期判断即可短期策略最重要的原则是不能和中期判断反SFCCENoBQV910向而且其重要性远弱于中期判断因此未来走向复苏的过程中肯定还021-38003645会有曲折我们既不建议机构投资者对短期业绩抱有较高的期待也不wangxianshuanggfcomcn建议机构投资者在短期波动中做过多的交易分析师李佳鸣风险提示1疫情传播程度持续时间超预期2国际经济及金融SAC执证号S0260521080001风险超预期3政策落地不及预期4利率波动超预期021-38003643lijiaminggfcomcn分析师伍嘉慧SAC执证号S0260522070008021-38003643gzwujiahuigfcomcn请注意倪军李佳鸣伍嘉慧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人不可在香港从事受监管活动联系人文雪阳010-59136613wenxueyanggfcomcn识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明123TablePageText跟踪分析银行重点公司估值和财务分析表货最新最近合理价值EPS元PExPBxROE股票简称股票代码评级币收盘价报告日期元股2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023E2022E2023E工商银行601398SHCNY42520221029买入53310110842139404804411821166建设银行601939SHCNY55320221029买入76112613543941005104712151186农业银行601288SHCNY28720221029买入35307207739937304504111691143中国银行601988SHCNY31320221029买入42307407942339604404111001080邮储银行601658SHCNY44320221029买入75808910549842205805312331310交通银行601328SHCNY46820221029买入63612012839036604003710821060招商银行600036SHCNY363720221028买入591752660769159911109716991729浦发银行600000SHCNY71920221031买入813160166449433035033814787兴业银行601166SHCNY172520221028买入322042848840335305404814081429光大银行601818SHCNY30120221029买入52807908538135404003710981075平安银行000001SZCNY129820221025买入188421826559549006906112271317宁波银行002142SZCNY307720221027买入376034542689272213111315751677南京银行601009SHCNY100420221211买入147418622555746108407416041710杭州银行600926SHCNY126620221027买入201619324965650809408314961681成都银行601838SHCNY141020221028买入194128435849639409408020542195常熟银行601128SHCNY71720221027买入96409611574762308908012621352工商银行01398HKHKD38520221029买入45110110834131903903611821166建设银行00939HKHKD46720221029买入61312613533231003803512151186农业银行01288HKHKD26120221029买入29307207732530403603311691143中国银行03988HKHKD27820221029买入35907407933731503503311001080交通银行03328HKHKD43620221029买入56112012832530503403110821060招商银行03968HKHKD416520221028买入580252660770961511410016991729中国光大银行06818HKHKD23020221029买入40307908526124202702510981075邮储银行01658HKHKD46820221029买入72708910547139905505012331310注AH股上市银行的业绩预测一致且货币单位均为人民币元对应的H股PE和PB估值为最新H股股价按即期汇率折合为人民币计算所得数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心备注表中估值指标按照最新收盘价计算识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明223TablePageText跟踪分析银行目录索引一本期观察5二投资建议5三市场表现银行板块继续回调换手率仍在低位6一板块表现上周银行板块继续下跌跑赢大盘周换手率继续回落7二个股表现港股大行表现较好渤海银行H领涨10三北向资金本期银行板块获赠最高为贵阳银行016PCT13四转债表现上周转债跌幅小于正股偏债股份行转债表现较好15四盈利预测跟踪城商行利润增速预测上调营收增速预测下调18五风险提示21识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明323TablePageText跟踪分析银行图表索引图1银行板块Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现7图2银行板块Wind全A非金融石油石化区间换手率周7图3市盈率银行9图4相对市盈率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化9图5市净率银行9图6相对市净率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化9图7股息率银行9图8相对股息率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化9图9北向资金持有银行板块市值占比13图10银行转债绝对收益与相对收益16图11银行转债银行板块可转债指数累计收益率16图12银行转债债性股性一览17图13银行转债价位估值一览17图14所有银行净利润增速预测2022E20图15所有银行营收增速预测2022E20图16国有大行净利润增速预测2022E20图17国有大行营收增速预测2022E20图18股份行净利润增速预测2022E20图19股份行营收增速预测2022E20图20城商行净利润增速预测2022E21图21城商行营收增速预测2022E21图22农商行净利润增速预测2022E21图23农商行营收增速预测2022E21表1中信一级行业区间涨跌幅情况周8表2中信一级行业区间换手率情况周8表3上市银行区间涨跌幅情况周10表4上市银行区间换手率情况周11表5上市银行绝对相对估值股息率及所处分位情况12表6申万一级行业北向资金持股市值占比及区间变动情况周13表7上市银行北向资金持股市值占比及区间变动情况周14表8银行转债关键信息一览15表9银行转债区间涨跌幅情况周15表10银行转债区间换手率情况周16表11A股上市银行净利润增速预测跟踪2022E18表12A股上市银行营收增速预测跟踪2022E19识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明423TablePageText跟踪分析银行一本期观察上周银行业整体继续调整-250继续跑赢万得全A剔除金融石化197个百分点重点关注品种招行回调幅度194排名第5大行整体涨幅排名居前自我们前一周投资观察中提出一月可能进入震荡期后市场和板块提前开始了调整这种调整来自于几个方面从交易层面来看板块前期累积了一定幅度的涨幅后有回调的需求其次中央经济工作会议的政策预期落地阶段性进入政策空窗期另外也由于各地疫情因素影响第三由于年底之前银行理财到期较为集中信用市场压力加剧使得金融市场流动性在年底之前依然是压力期二投资建议由于保经济增长是明年政府的核心工作内容因此本次行情我们预计将是以年为单位展开的较大级别行情而短期来看未来一个季度仍需关注疫情因素影响会使得年度行情从单边阶段转为振荡上行阶段振荡上行期的核心策略是回调即是机会上涨需调结构即回调加复苏交易品种上涨时调衰退交易品种过去两周行业小幅回调以及年底之前的金融市场流动性压力这也恰好给了投资者增加配置的机会实际上大多数时候我们只需要做好银行投资策略的中期判断即可短期策略最重要的原则是不能和中期判断反向而且其重要性远弱于中期判断因此未来走向复苏的过程中肯定还会有曲折我们既不建议机构投资者对短期业绩抱有较高的期待也不建议机构投资者在短期波动中做过多的交易识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明523TablePageText跟踪分析银行三市场表现银行板块继续回调换手率仍在低位板块表现上周银行板块继续下跌跑赢大盘周换手率继续回落上周银行中信一级行业板块整体下跌250在30个中信一级行业中排第4跑赢Wind全A除金融石油石化指数约197个百分点上周银行中信一级行业板块周换手率059在30个中信一级行业中排第30较前一周继续下降017个百分点绝对估值方面截至2022年12月23日银行板块最新市盈率TTM447X最新市净率最新财报下同053X较前一周末均有所下滑相对估值方面银行Wind全A除金融石油石化指数最新相对市盈率TTM为017最新相对市净率为024均处在历史较低水平个股表现港股大行表现较好渤海银行H领涨上周个股涨幅靠前的为渤海银行H1923农业银行H077中国银行H072工商银行H026子板块来看国有大行股份行城商行农商行中信三级行业涨幅分别为-156-249-335-363国有大行相对抗跌上周个股换手率靠前的为兰州银行1007瑞丰银行392苏农银行338子板块来看国有大行股份行城商行农商行中信三级行业周换手率分别为035089138259均较前一周有所回落农商行整体交易活跃度更高估值方面国有大行股份行城商行农商行中信三级行业最新市盈率TTM分别为418X490X539X514X最新市净率分别为049X058X068X054X最新相对市盈率TTM分别为093110120115最新相对市净率分别为093110129102北向资金上周银行板块获增持最高为浙商银行截至2022年12月9日北向资金银行业持股占比为273较上期增持004pct增持比例在31个申万一级行业中排名第12板块内部来看截至2022年12月9日北向资金持股比例最高的银行个股前三为招商银行706成都银行672邮储银行634其中近一周增持比例前三为浙商银行033pct张家港022pct长沙银行017pct三季报披露以来增持比例前三为沪农商行216pct齐鲁银行185pct张家港行093pct转债表现上周转债跌幅小于正股偏债股份行转债表现较好上周银行转债平均价格下跌145中证可转换债券指数下跌200银行转债跑赢中证可转换债券指数约055个百分点正股方面上周银行板块下跌25019只银行转债对应正股价格全部下跌个券方面上周仅浦发转债上银转债价格上涨009006其余银行转债价格均下跌跌幅相对较小的为光大转债055紫银转债075中信转债079表现出偏债转债的抗跌性个券周换手率表现继续分化换手率靠前的为新上市的齐鲁转债4862张行转债897江银转债772无锡转债771齐鲁转债上市首日破发当日收盘价为9513元转股溢价率为3391一方面权益市场和转债市场均面临调整行情另一方面齐鲁转债上市转股价值较低同时债底支撑不够从而出现破发识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明623TablePageText跟踪分析银行一板块表现上周银行板块继续下跌跑赢大盘周换手率继续回落图1银行板块Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现Wind全A非金融石油石化银行银行Wind全A非金融石油石化右轴10000200900018080001607000140600012050001004000300008020160219201604082016052720160715201609022016102120161209201701272017031720170505201706232017081120170929201711172018010520180223201804132018060120180720201809072018102620181214201902012019032220190510201906282019081620191004201911222020011020200228202004172020060520200724202009112020103020201218202102052021032620210514202107022021082020211008202111262022011420220304202204222022061020220729202209162022110420221223数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心图2银行板块Wind全A非金融石油石化区间换手率周Wind全A非金融石油石化银行右轴160012周期移动平均Wind全A非金融石油石化12周期移动平均银行右轴40014003501200300100025080020058260015040010005920005000000020160219201604082016052720160715201609022016102120161209201701272017031720170505201706232017081120170929201711172018010520180223201804132018060120180720201809072018102620181214201902012019032220190510201906282019081620191004201911222020011020200228202004172020060520200724202009112020103020201218202102052021032620210514202107022021082020211008202111262022011420220304202204222022061020220729202209162022110420221223数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明723TablePageText跟踪分析银行表1中信一级行业区间涨跌幅情况周202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111年初以来消费者服务0163864711076-620-150-023792传媒-063-164045503-513527468-2597食品饮料-109178710779-358189105-1365银行-250-070348090400040347-758综合金融-260-091205314-171013185-2614轻工制造-264-093178364-040136393-2061家电-304-151698216-126198337-1849农林牧渔-322076-086442-135-119079-1041非银行金融-330-230373271033229305-1596计算机-338-182-230271-583400-038-2654交通运输-363111386226-012-180001226商贸零售-395-203385642002128395-827通信-397-213-123316-230272-143-2080电力及公用事业-411-148-226003220059053-1675纺织服装-430-006187521-117171234-905房地产-439-210321350454000959-355建材-445-222396174190146457-2367有色金属-482-442307089-024-498345-1803国防军工-482-231-159047-239-050-336-2807综合-490-267028302-135114398-1138医药-515014132131-505569-094-2150汽车-534-197073377-203-354-256-1973石油石化-536-236-045187258-142242-1024煤炭-545-267006-092458-5721651759基础化工-550-338166252-086-131011-2361机械-553-305-043101-133-094-215-2240建筑-559-285132053518-071306-976钢铁-588-223193008138-230268-2169电力设备及新能源-590-352-094274-165-292-321-2765电子-591-089063093-341326-352-3667数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心表2中信一级行业区间换手率情况周202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111年初以来消费者服务235921862338242915832092183575254医药113517281645132614101717135949594商贸零售10181233126780269274866534640食品饮料992107097379449766161035044农林牧渔88990397784457179079152693房地产85692312741786882120090743052轻工制造85396593687887095294243529纺织服装8441133107380869163369938861传媒8219461122114910321390114150179综合金融815806129984858876673840044计算机7789461068108212081655146954764建材65484997497476385783648551综合6338461081113910171344108546988通信62469698710751037101084937079机械61769783785586589293544470基础化工58066182070575477778245972汽车57356772683062771073839681电子52767569362466094385336840家电51859463961147963863632210电力设备及新能源44152069766273176478846560建筑38448782377288852154338027有色金属34047967956346464392237852交通运输31442955337729231832618182煤炭29237346254642449748334453国防军工28739052843046656759427546电力及公用事业25931142749041740044525513钢铁24937946437235337258827306非银行金融20326747944226444728315101石油石化1281512031811571491609967银行0590771101351040890814543数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明823TablePageText跟踪分析银行图3市盈率银行图4相对市盈率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化均值均值1倍标准差均值均值1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99分位均值-1倍标准差99分位1分位1分位900040800035700030600025500020400015300010201602201605201608201611201702201705201708201711201802201805201808201811201902201905201908201911202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211201602201605201608201611201702201705201708201711201802201805201808201811201902201905201908201911202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心图5市净率银行图6相对市净率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化均值均值1倍标准差均值均值1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99分位均值-1倍标准差99分位1分位1分位130050120045110100040090035080030070025060050020040015201602201605201608201611201702201705201708201711201802201805201808201811201902201905201908201911202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211201602201605201608201611201702201705201708201711201802201805201808201811201902201905201908201911202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心图7股息率银行图8相对股息率银行Wind全A非金融石油石化均值均值1倍标准差均值均值1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99分位均值-1倍标准差99分位1分位1分位6506505505504504503503502502501501502016022016052016082016112017022017052017082017112018022018052018082018112019022019052019082019112020022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表现上周转债跌幅小于正股偏债股份行转债表现较好表8银行转债关键信息一览平价底最新转下修最触发强最新余最新转纯债溢转股溢平价底价已转股剩余期221223价溢价债价格大幅度赎正股额亿股价格价率价率元元比例限年率元涨幅元元上银转债-0748352-45911049457181057212733199990014091023青农转债-0614462-312898366801989691155000001367422浦发转债-0449781-49671048853021053514517499990002851356紫银转债-0295419-35341007165321010199034500001358395重银转债-0255658-362996336152965711130130000005251089光大转债0051621-1390104428985104364468241991934023335中信转债0824470-303310982758910893712940000000220643齐鲁转债2393722-253895386951931501287038000000594587苏农转债2962435-172010907877210594482112894846161521无锡转债4831847-11521086691711036541752921262110543江银转债5371687-98510925934810369390717581210109414兴业转债5644435-268210172704796298449499980005012448张行转债8021371-5001122098681038731742497012189453苏银转债112721089812143118931091393119999000222597苏行转债158212193231155010295997326275000001430711杭银转债17741459276114771001697474422979149990014271264南银转债20621073893115321041595612482166171692448964常银转债257425710021115588748872106546506000000573808成银转债27631684923118521014492868502816628421455201390数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心表9银行转债区间涨跌幅情况周202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111年初以来浦发转债009006-061-020002-060-043-092上银转债006-018-074-020016-096-026-082光大转债-055-015026-006056-046006-773紫银转债-075-082-051-001034-098-025-743中信转债-079-009-058067105-095008018兴业转债-095-219-047193093-119060重银转债-098-080-106026028-088-023青农转债-108-093-075-037115-113-010-1059成银转债-166-320031087107-171161南银转债-237-173060026201-223057-261苏银转债-248-194097005243-203095177常银转债-258-107-044-012320-285086江银转债-275-288018046331-316047-237无锡转债-278-297-150193293-324085-984杭银转债-285-202048-008194-362212-794苏行转债-310-290160136197-279250203苏农转债-349-205038050265-303-033-871张行转债-410-247-050253207-377083-938齐鲁转债-462数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明1523TablePageText跟踪分析银行表10银行转债区间换手率情况周202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111年初以来齐鲁转债4862张行转债8975294441328933130676649407江银转债77255852414101343165585353144无锡转债771622648102243972277942183苏行转债598388833159172075754925844苏农转债507322719819637101749049106苏银转债47859969080459984644429375成银转债4163494609724921125717杭银转债29620852674034670249226249青农转债28323228224023838013017524光大转债25328840444732728619118053常银转债2522987038667131171718南银转债25217135554225439839124513兴业转债230151203443239334312紫银转债22529536740125230126119634重银转债218235320192165309144浦发转债19421537727721848320413238上银转债18932155535320955225118645中信转债0410390640880680820673222数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心图10银行转债绝对收益与相对收益图11银行转债银行板块可转债指数累计收益率银行转债加权平均价格中证可转换债券指数银行转债加权平均价格中证银行指数银行转债加权平均价格右轴中证可转换债券指数02911802911602851140280027112027110-5026108026-10106025-15025104024102-20数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明1623TablePageText跟踪分析银行图12银行转债债性股性一览30重银转债常银转债25青农转债20紫银转债苏行转债15苏银转债10纯债溢价率浦发转债上银转债5中信转债江银转债苏农转债齐鲁转债中信转债0杭银转债南银转债青农转债青农转债苏银转债紫银转债-5020406080100120转股溢价率数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心图13银行转债价位估值一览120100杭银转债上银转债8060转股溢价率苏行转债常银40张行转债苏农转债常银转债成银转债20兴业转债江银转债张行转债江银转债南银转债南银转债杭银转债0苏行转债100105110115120125最新转债价格元数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明1723TablePageText跟踪分析银行四盈利预测跟踪城商行利润增速预测上调营收增速预测下调表11A股上市银行净利润增速预测跟踪2022E较最新财评级环比上期报披露前机构变动202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111变动家数PCTPCT工商银行18-076000408408408408408408408建设银行15-073000537537537537537537537农业银行15-097000593593593593593593593中国银行11-063000028028028028028028028邮储银行31-0920001261126112711271127112711271交通银行11-043000285285285285285285285招商银行29-0390001287128712871287128712871287兴业银行24-0940001000100010001000100010001000浦发银行6-189000-127-127-127-127-127-127-127民生银行1000000468468468468468468468光大银行12-159000092092092092092092106平安银行290290002147214721472147214721472147华夏银行2浙商银行5-172000412412412287472472472北京银行21-049004516512512512512512512江苏银行261440002310231023102310229222922292上海银行8-079000303303303303303303303宁波银行34-0320061895188918891889188918891889南京银行250460001864186418701870187018701870杭州银行280120002605260526052605260526052605成都银行320800002717271727052705270527052705长沙银行11-220000318318318318318318318重庆银行1贵阳银行2-100000-113-113-113-113-113-113-113郑州银行0青岛银行10-0940001036103610361036103610361036苏州银行181600001789178917891789178917891789齐鲁银行42620001719171917191719171917191719兰州银行1000000185185185185185185185西安银行1000000-774-774-774-774-774-774-774渝农商行8-018000653653653653653653653沪农商行71400001469146914691469146914691469青农商行0常熟银行330820001483148314831483148314771477紫金银行1073000612612612612612612612无锡银行16-0780002168216821682168216821682168张家港行172580002190219021902190219021902190苏农银行13-0040002075207520752075207520752075江阴银行13-0530002080208020802080208020802080瑞丰银行0国有大行-076000448448449449449449449股份行-083-012865877877874879879880城商行0020031332132913291329132713271327农商行0580001276127612761276127612751275所有银行-069-003625628628628629629629数据来源Wind广发证券发展研究中心备注本节预测数据均为Wind一致预测均值识别风险发现价值请务必阅读末页的免责声明1823TablePageText跟踪分析银行表12A股上市银行营收增速预测跟踪2022E较最新财评级环比上期报披露前机构变动202212232022121620221292022122202211252022111820221111变动家数PCTPCT工商银行18-170000362362362362362362362建设银行15-103000358358358358358358358农业银行15-083000550550550550550550550中国银行11-150000545545545545545545545邮储银行31-060000960960961961961961961交通银行11-009000706706706706706706706招商银行29-182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