【基本面信息】
　　大豆：国内方面，2022年中国大豆显著增产，市场供应宽松，需求表现乏力。中储粮直属库下调国标三等大豆收购价，带动东北产区国产大豆价格普遍下跌。
　　白糖：阶段性供需错配推升原糖反弹。南北半球压榨交替期，泰国、澳大利亚及中美洲收割有所推迟；巴西本榨季压榨尾声，降雨导致部分本榨季甘蔗来不及收割，后续可供出口量有限。全球需求仍偏好，阶段性供需错配导致全球贸易流偏紧。但中期来看，全球供应转过剩对上方仍有较明显压制。
　　棕榈油：马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPOMMA）的数据显示，2022年12月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少1.31%。其中鲜果串单产环比减少1.60%，出油率（OER）提高0.06%。

研究报告全文：农产品期权周报期权研究2022年12月26日星期一基本面信息大豆国内方面2022年中国大豆显著增产市场供应宽松需求表现乏力中储粮直属库下调国标三等大豆收购价带动东北产区国产大豆价格普遍下跌白糖阶段性供需错配推升原糖反弹南北半球压榨交替期泰国澳大利亚及中美洲收割有所推迟巴西本榨季压榨尾声降雨导致部分本榨季甘蔗来不及收割后续可供出口量有限全球需求仍偏好阶段性供需错配导致全球贸易流偏紧但中期来看全球供应转过剩对上方仍有较明显压制卢品先棕榈油马来西亚棕榈油公会SPOMMA的数据显示2022年12月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少131其中鲜果串单产环比减少160出油率OER提高006投研经理0755-23375252期权行情概要lupxwkqhcn标的行情农产品玉米经过前期高位回落后连续报收阴线大幅下跌后上周以来维持低位弱势盘整震荡豆粕从业资格号M2303止跌反弹逐渐回暖上升延续三个多月以来的多头上涨趋势棕榈油P2302经过前两周以来的空头方向持续下跌后上周以来低位弱势盘整震荡白糖SR2303低位反弹回升后连续报收大阳线形成短期趋势偏多头行情棉花维持F3047321近一个多月以来震荡上行温和上涨趋势上周以来高位宽幅矩形区间盘整截止收盘玉米C2303周跌幅203报收于交易咨询号2756豆粕M2303合约周涨幅145报收于4103棕榈油P2302周跌幅303报收于7572白糖SR303周涨幅079报收于Z00155415787棉花CF303周跌幅198报收于13915日均成交量上周农产品期权日均成交量除玉米期权大幅度增加以外其他农产品期权日均成交量不同程度减少其中玉米期权增加174万张至775万张豆粕期权减少408万张至746万张棕榈油期权减少143万张至791万张白糖期权减少139万张至761万张棉花期权减少254万张至826万张日均持仓量上周农产品期权日均持仓量普遍呈现出增加的现象玉米期权豆粕期权和棕榈油期权增加幅度较大其中玉米期权增加573万张至3070万张豆粕期权增加269万张至2885万张棕榈油期权增加182万张至914万张白糖期权增加121万张至1679万张棉花期权增加125万张至2037万张隐含波动率上周农产品期权隐含波动率玉米期权和白糖期权隐含波动率窄幅波动而豆粕期权棕榈油期权和棉花期权隐含波动率小幅下降截止上周五收盘玉米期权隐含波动率报收于1134豆粕期权隐含波动率报收于1934棕榈油期权隐含波动率报收于2435白糖期权隐含波动率报收于1226棉花期权隐含波动率报收于2075成交量PCR期权的成交量PCR是站在期权的买方角度看待市场的表现表示的是市场情绪指标一般认为成交量PCR越大投资者情绪越悲观成交量PCR越小投资者情绪越乐观玉米期权成交量PCR报收于093豆粕期权成交量PCR报收于111棕榈油期权成交量PCR报收于103白糖期权成交量PCR报收于077棉花期权成交量PCR小幅下降报收于069持仓量PCR一般认为期权的持仓量PCR为100时是多头和空头的分界线玉米期权持仓量PCR持续小幅波动报收于089豆粕期权持仓量PCR大幅上升报收于196棕榈油期权持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于066白糖期权持仓量PCR持续上升仍维持低位水平报收于061棉花期权持仓量PCR盘整报收于066结论与操作建议1棉花期权棉花CF303延续近一个月多月以来的震荡上行温和上涨上周以来涨幅收窄高位宽幅区间盘整棉花期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR小幅上升仍维持较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如CF2303SCF2303P13800SCF2303P13600和SCF2303C14000SCF2303C142002白糖期权白糖SR2303低位反弹回暖上升后连续报收大阳线短期趋势方向上持续上涨突破上行期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR快速上升仍维持在较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如SR303SSR303-C-590010SSR303-C-580010和SSR303-P-570010SSR303-P-5600103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2302前两周高位回落连续大幅下跌先后跌破20天均线和60天均线上周以来形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR持续回落至较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大跌或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如P2302SP2302-C-770010SP2302-C-760010和SP2302-P-740010SP2302-P-7500104玉米期权玉米C2303经过前期的持续大幅下跌后上周以来形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头低位盘整震荡期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR小幅波动操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如C2303SC2303-P-272010SC2303-P-274010和SC2303-C-276010SC2303-C-278010周市场行情概要期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅周日均成交量万增减上周日均持仓量万增减CC23032756-6100-20331323037807628MM2303410311000145634-1812792215PP23027572-10600-303172-049789-007SRSR2303578768000792505-3814772482CFCF230313915-20500-1986390721693-072RMRM230330244500057284-1211424-036数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部期权总成交与持仓周日均成交量周日均持仓量期权品种CallPut合计变化PCRCallPut合计变化PCRC3678040743775231739911114734115962430696557293108M318234279874621-4077013410336518510328846826921179P379984113479132-1425110854145372399138318191069SR416453443376078-138740831034116444216785312136062CF493343328882623-254310671284197531420373312493059RM131981476627964-53861122620527635538407407105数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部日市场行情概要主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23032760340039502755000000-150302023-02-13M2303410083001245040591200030-4450302023-02-13P2302760013600245007491-9500-125-8100112023-01-10SR230358006700900057772750048-1000242023-02-03CF2303140002650038100138843600026-3100242023-02-03RM23033000815084002998600020-2650242023-02-03数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2303120510161134054112412091039M2303189819591934-014203521621908P2302253623292435-013257127632378SR2303121012491226016125513451166CF2303210820312075-075219023332047RM2303218224062303-083250526692342数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C23031826010983060-0418504675616089005M230313696198341450054585890103196006P230242547435181020034184027690066-004SR23033534024758070-0215960536265061000CF230326895205430760034983632784066-001RM23039618113651180081229414998122008数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图300070成交量万收盘价6029005027520028004027003020260010250002022-11-212022-12-022022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-242022-11-292022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23图2豆粕主力合约走势图4400250成交量万收盘价420040580020040001503800100360050340002022-08-292022-12-022022-12-072022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23图3白糖主力合约走势图600050成交量万收盘价5900405777005800305700205600550010540002022-08-082022-11-112022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23图4棉花主力合约走势图20000100成交量万收盘价19000180008017000601600015000139100040140001300020120001100002022-06-222022-07-262022-10-312022-12-022022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23图5菜粕主力合约走势图3800120成交量万收盘价36001003400803200305400603000402800260020240002022-06-272022-09-282022-12-232022-06-222022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-20图6棕榈油主力合约走势图11000180成交量万收盘价1601000014012090001008080006070004020600002022-07-212022-09-152022-11-162022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部玉米期权持仓分布玉米期权持仓分布图玉米期权持仓变化图2500020001500200001000500150000-500-100010000-1500-20005000-2500-30000-3500OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC玉米期权最大未平仓玉米认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价3200310030002900280027002600250024002022-07-082022-08-112022-09-152022-10-262022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23玉米期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓玉米期权持仓量PCR玉米期权隐含波动率2003100OIPCR24180CLOSE300020160290014028001612027001227520010026000802500806024002022-09-292022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-142022-12-232022-09-082022-12-052022-07-042022-07-142022-07-262022-08-052022-08-172022-08-292022-09-212022-10-102022-10-202022-11-012022-11-112022-11-232022-12-152022-06-22IMPVMA20UPLOW豆粕期权持仓分布豆粕期权持仓分布图豆粕期权持仓变化图25000200020000150015000100010000500500000-500285030003150330034503600375039004050420043504500465048004950285030003150330034503600375039004050420043504500465048004950OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC豆粕期权最大未平仓豆粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价4800440040003600320028002022-08-162022-11-162022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23豆粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓豆粕期权持仓量PCR豆粕期权隐含波动率3404400OIPCR40CLOSE352904058004200302404000251902038001401509036001004034002022-09-292022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-142022-12-232022-09-082022-12-052022-07-042022-07-142022-07-262022-08-052022-08-172022-08-292022-09-212022-10-102022-10-202022-11-012022-11-112022-11-232022-12-152022-06-22IMPVMA20UPLOW白糖期权持仓分布白糖期权持仓分布图白糖期权持仓变化图1400014001200120001000100008008000600400600020040000-2002000-4000-6006400580048005000520054005600580060006200660068004800500052005400560060006200640066006800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC白糖期权最大未平仓白糖认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价6800660064006200600058005600540052002022-08-242022-09-152022-12-122022-06-222022-06-272022-06-302022-07-052022-07-082022-07-132022-07-182022-07-212022-07-262022-07-292022-08-032022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-152022-12-202022-12-23白糖期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓白糖期权持仓量PCR白糖期权隐含波动率1005900OIPCR20577700090CLOSE5800080070570015060050560004055001003002054002022-07-122022-06-222022-07-012022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-09-292022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022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